Reflecting on Our Future: All Under one Roof. SKCA Economic Development Summit James R. DeLisle, Ph.D. October 11, 2014 Avila University

Transcription

1 Reflecting on Our Future: All Under one Roof SKCA Economic Development Summit James R. DeLisle, Ph.D. October 11, 2014 Avila University

2 Presentation Overview National Economic Scene Economy and Capital Markets Employment and Housing Social Entrepreneurship/Social Responsibility Kansas City Economic Scene Economics and Housing Transactions and Forecast Kansas City Development: Future Trends Range of Activity, Breadth of Market Challenges & Opportunities Thinking Bigger is Thinking Better An Collaborative Example of Future Engineering: A Co-Op Approach

3 WHO ARE YOU? WHO AM I? I AM NOT YOUR HOME RUN HITTER I AM YOUR CLOSER

4 Developer Panel John Sharp. Since before dirt Cerner Corporation Oxford on the Blue CenterPoint Intermodal Bannister Federal Complex CubeSmart Three Trails Industrial Park Burns and McDonnell Wendy Hill Bill Crandall Jim Cross Tanner Banion Mark Bryant NorthPoint Mike Talboy

5 Southeast Kansas City: The Future is Now Three Trails Oxford on the Blue Cerner 1.4msf 8-10 yrs 1,55-2,000 jobs 60% Mfg; $60000 Avg 3,000 15,000 emp. 290 Acres Innovation Campus Training, Health, Fitness, Retail $4.5 billion; $8m Schools; $2 m comm Oxford: 350 acres $1.2-$3b; $450/sf cost 20 years, 10,000 jobs 4 msf; mixed-use, village, housing Vision: Bio-Science, Tech PI s Collaborate, Commercialize Tenants: National, International

6 Bannister Federal Complex Intermodal Richards-GeBaur; Air Force Base Engineers, STEM, Skills, Logistics, Prof $1 billion to date; $800 m, GSA Bannister Federal Complex 300 acres; GSA move; redevelopment 500,000 sf bldg., re-use Burns and McDonnell Former K-mart 5615 E Bannister/Hillcrest 12 acres; Below Grade 60% to Climate Controlled PS 40% to retail (restaurant) Master Plan vs. Urban Red. Burns and McDonnell $110+ m rehab/expansion 2,100 new emp; tech & STEM 5-7 years; 2: 330,000 & 350,000 sf Heavy Landscaping; walking trail

7 Vision for South Kansas City Targeted Industries Business clusters Arts, STEM, Tech Real Estate Opportunities Ready to go, access opportunistic, logistics Economic Readiness Just-in-Time Employees, Housing, Infrastructure Entrepreneurship Small Business, Advance KC

8 Audience/Breakout Questions & Issues Tax incentives? TIF, Incentives Labor Force: Union Built? Pick GC, GC picks team What workforce? STEM With all development, help for minority hiring Yes, contractors, mentor Housing Need for entry level, mid-tear College education; $100k debt Is there another path?

9 ECONOMIC AND KANSAS CITY OVERVIEW

10 Rates (%) Retail Sales ($ millsions UM Consumer Confidence Index Levels Duration of Unemployment (mo.) Duration of Unemployment (weeks) National Economy Domestic Stock Market Indices * 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Interest Rates: Treasuries, Bonds and Federal Funds NASDAQ S&P 100 DJIA DJ Transportation DJ Utility DJ Composite * Closing Values Sources: Lewis White Real Estate Center, Economagic 5-Yr Treasuries Moody's Aaa Corp Bonds Federal Funds Rate 10-Yr Treasuries Moody's Baa Corp. Consumer Confidence and Retail Sales $190,000 $185,000 $180,000 $175,000 $170,000 $165,000 $160,000 $155,000 $150,000 $145,000 $140,000 Duration of Unemployment & Labor Force Participation Duration of Unemployment Sources: Lewis White Real Estate Center, US Department of Labor Retail Sales Consumer Confidence Labor Force Participation Rate Sources: Lewis White Real Estate Center, Thomson Reuters & Department of Commerce Sources: Lewis White Real Estate Center, Federal Reserve Institutional Real Estate Returns

11 Private Employment (000s) Government Employment (00s) Unemplyment Rate (%) KC Economic Scene: By State (Bi-State) State Comparisons Private vs. Public Employment Unemployment Rate: KC MSA by State Portion Employment Growth: Kansas City MSA Kansas KC MSA Missouri KC MSA KC MSA All 12 per. Mov. Avg. (KC MSA All) Private Employment Government Employment per. Mov. Avg. (Private Employment) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Government Employment) Sources: Lewis White Real Estate Center, Economagic, BLS Sources: Lewis White Real Estate Center, Economagic, Bureau of Labor Statistics Single Family Permits: Kansas vs. Missouri Multi-Family Permits: Kansas vs. Missouri

12 KC Housing Scene Average Prices for Existing Houses by County $500,000 Average Prices for New Houses by County $500,000 New $324,079 $450,000 $400,000 $350,000 Existing $168,673 $450,000 $400,000 $350,000 Average $ $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 Average $169,673 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $150,000 $100,000 $100,000 $50,000 $50,000 $- $- April May Jun-14 Jun-13 April May Jun-14 Jun-13 Data Keyed from Online Publications Sources: Lewis White Real Estate Center, Kansas City Regional Association of Realtors Data Keyed from Online Publications Sources: Lewis White Real Estate Center, Kansas City Regional Association of Realtors Single Family vs. Multifamily

13 KC Commercial Real Estate Private Institutional Holdings KC vs. NPI All Total Returns Cap Rates: Self-Report Kansas City Cap Rates: National Market Cap Rates 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% Current Outlook in 3-yrs Current Outlook in 3-yrs 12% Higher Yields 11% in KC 9.7% 9.9% 10.0% 10% 9.6% 8.5% 9% 8.5% 8.1% 7.9% 8% 7.1% 6.9% 6.6% 6.7% 7% 6.2% 6.3% 6.3% 6% 5.7% 5% 4% Trophy Core Non-Institutional Distressed Trophy Core Non-Institutional Distressed Sources: Lewis White Real Estate Center; JR DeLisle Survey-Feb 2014 Sources: Lewis White Real Estate Center; JR DeLisle Survey-Feb 2014 Sources: Lewis White Real Estate Center, NCREIF

14 KC Forecast: External View Private Institutional Holdings Sources: Lewis White Real Estate Center, NCREIF

15 Major Projects in Southeast KCMO: The Future

16 Suburban Real Estate Projects Source: MetroWireMedia.com

17 Urban/REfill Source: MetroWireMedia.com

18 Reflecting on KCs Future Futuring vs. Pasting: Lessons Learned

19 Mayor s Issues & Answers Bring money in from outside Import $s or tax ourselves Balance our budget Critical Need for infrastructure Deferred and critical Transit Bus, streetcar, bicycle Street v. Transit 1/3 of KC covered with streets Incentives Gradually tighten, phase Entrepreneurship Need to train, nurture, incubate, launch pad

20 Kansas City: Future Issues Source: MetroWireMedia.com

21 THE CO-OP: A COLLABORATIVE APPROACH AS A MODEL

22 The Co-Op Connections

23 Neighborhood Transformation: The Co-Op s Approach Adding Neighborhood Development to the Continuum Emergency Relief + Individual Betterment Neighborhood Development = A Place to Stay

24 Neighborhood Specification Wendell Phillips Hickman Mills

25 Neighborhood Comparisons Race/Origin Income Educational Attainment

26 What we mean by Community Development The phrase Community Development is used to mean many things. To the Co-Op it means bringing together a set of four vital components necessary for holistic neighborhood revitalization. Customized solutions to optimize success. Housing Transitional Housing Project Chaplaincy Good Neighbors Mixed-Income Development Economic Development Economic opportunity Jobs Training Business Builder Angel Investing Education Schools + Churches Partnerships Opportunities to volunteer with Students Health & Wellness Collaboration Facilitating Collective Impact among Service Providers & Churches Collaborating to increase access and utilization

27 What it Means We re gonna need a bigger roof!

28 Key Evaluative Criteria for Biotech/Research Parks State share 250 acre +

29 SETTING THE AGENDA: SOUTH KANSAS CITY ALLIANCE

30 Importance Very Low Very High Kansas City Scorecard: Setup Very Weak Red Zone Performance Very Strong On the Money Who Cares? Overachiever

31 Importance Very Low Very High Kansas City Scorecard Very Weak Performance Very Strong Red Zone On the Money Who Cares? Overachiever

32 The Future is Now

33 Presentation Review National Economic Scene Economy and Capital Markets Employment and Housing Social Entrepreneurship/Social Responsibility Kansas City Economic Scene Economics and Housing Transactions and Forecast Kansas City Development: Future Trends Range of Activity, Breadth of Market Challenges & Opportunities Thinking Bigger is Thinking Better An Collaborative Example of Future Engineering: A Co-Op Approach