>> New Construction Delivers to the Orange County Office Market
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1 Research & Forecast Report ORANGE COUNTY OFFICE Accelerating success. >> New Construction Delivers to the Orange County Office Market Key Takeaways > Three new office developments were delivered to the market during first quarter totaling 594,200 square feet (). These are the first office construction completions since third quarter > Asking rental rates continue to increase, recording at $2.40 per squre foot (P) full service gross (FSG). This is a 12.6% increase from one year ago. > rose 30 basis points despite overall positive absorption due to the partially vacant deliveries of new construction. > Leasing activity did mark a slow down in first quarter recording 1.6 million, which was last seen second quarter of > The overall economy continues to see solid growth in first quarter. The Orange County unemployment rate has declined from 4.7% to 4.0% year over year. Orange County Office Market The Orange County office market started the year off on a positive note with 594,200 being delivered to the market. The new inventory opens up opportunity for tenants seeking new Class A office space. For example, Mazda, WeWork and Curse Inc. all signed deals at the newly delivered 200 Spectrum Center Dr. in Irvine. did increase during first quarter to 13.1% compared to 12.8% one quarter ago due to the partially vacant deliveries of new construction. However, vacancy is expected to trend downward throughout As space options have become limited, asking rental rates have increased by 12.6% from one year ago. The Orange County office market will continue to be a target area for professional service tenants who are looking for lower asking rental rates compared neighboring areas such as San Diego and parts of Los Angeles. Market Indicators Relative to prior period Class A Class B All Classes Average Asking Rent $2.76 $2.23 $2.40 Change from Q4 15 ($) $2.63 $2.19 $2.40 Y.O.Y. Change (%) 16.0% 8.8% 12.6% 12-mo Employment Growth (%) 12-mo Actual Employment Change Nonfarm Prof. & Business Services Forecast Net Absorption Construction Rental Rate Summary Statistics Orange County, Asking Rents Orange County, Orange County Labor Force Class A Class B All Classes Rate 14.0% 12.4% 13.1% Change from Q4 15 (Basis Points) Net Absorption* Construction Completions* Under Construction* *, Thousands Financial Activities 2.8% 2.7% 1.6% 42,300 7,500 1,800
2 > Overall vacancy continues a downward trend recording at 13.1%. This is a 30 point basis increase from one quarter ago due to the partially vacant deliveries of new construction. > Tenants looking for spaces ranging from 5,000 to 20,000 can still select from a wide range of options. However, tenants seeking large blocks of contiguous available space over 100,000 have limited options. > North County recorded the tightest vacancy of all the Orange County submarkets at 10.9%; a 180 basis point decrease from last quarter. > FORECAST: The Orange County office market vacancy is expected to trend downward as no new supply is expected to deliver for the remainder of Absorption and Leasing Activity > Net absorption remained positive for the eighth consecutive quarter recording 219,100 during first quarter. > Large tenant move-ins during first quarter include: Western Growers Associates (80,900 ) at Sand Canyon Business Center in Irvine, UST Global (78,700 ) in Aliso Viejo and Pacific Union Financial (65,200 ) at Pacific Arts Plaza in Costa Mesa. > Class A buildings recorded the largest amount of leasing activity at 734,100 with Class B following at 671,500 and Class C recording the smallest amount at 145,000. > FORECAST: Absorption and leasing activity are both expected to remain positive through 2016 as tenants who are seeking new space alternatives will take advantage of new construction office developments. Rental Rates > The direct weighted average asking rental rate in Orange County increase over the first quarter to $2.40 P FSG, up from $2.31 P FSG in the previous quarter and also up from $2.14 P FSG recorded one year ago. > Class A rental rates increased to $2.76 P FSG from $2.63 P FSG from the previous quarter. > The high-caliber and newly constructed properties in the Irvine Spectrum and Newport Center market areas put upward pressure on rental rate appreciation. > FORECAST: Rental rates are expected to increase by 12% to 15% by year-end Much of the rental rate increase stems from the new office product coming online. Historical v. Rents O.C. Office Market Q $ P PER MONTH (FSG) RENTS VACANCY $ % $ % 16% $ % $ % 10% $2.10 8% $2.00 6% 4% $1.90 2% $1.80 0% 1Q12 1Q13 1Q14 1Q15 1Q16 Net Absorption by Submarket O.C. Office Market Q1 16 SQUARE FEET 300, , , , ,000 0 (21,400) (40,000) (67,600) (100,000) AIRPORT CENTRAL WEST SOUTH NORTH Historical Leasing Activity O.C. Office Market Q ,200,000 2,000,000 1,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 % VACANT (TOTAL) 1,000,000 1Q12 1Q13 1Q14 1Q15 1Q16 2
3 Construction > There were three new office developments delivered to the market during first quarter of 2016 totaling 594,200. The properties delievered to the market were: 200 Spectrum Center in Irvine, Red Hill Ave in Tustin and 6940 Beach Blvd in Buena Park. > Currently, there are three new office properties under construction totaling 1.2 million. Trammell Crow s development The Broadwalk in Irvine is expected to be completed by third quarter Irvine Company s 400 Spectrum Center in Irvine is expected to be completed by third quarter 2017 and M&D Properties is currently developing the Sand Canyon Business Center office buildings in Irvine for a completion date of second quarter > FORECAST: New construction inventory is expected to grow in 2016 and into Irvine Company s The Quad at Discovery Business Center is expected to breakground soon which includes 4 office buildings totaling 317,000. As creative office space demand continues, the former LA Times facility in Costa Mesa will be redeveloped into creative space totaling 700,000. Historical Net Absorption & Construction Completions O.C. Office Market Q SQUARE FEET 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, ,000 0 (500,000) (1,000,000) NET ABSORPTION 1Q12 1Q13 1Q14 1Q15 1Q16 Investment Trends Chart O.C. Office Market Q $ CONSTRUCTION COMPLETIONS 9.0% Investment Trends > Investment activity for properties over 25,000 slowed during first quarter. Sales volume recorded at $327.4 million compared to $426.1 million recorded one year ago. > Investors are expected to remain bullish in the Orange County market, targeting not only Class A trophy buildings, but also value-add creative space redevelopment opportunities. > Office building sales averaged $200 P, with CRC Real Estate Corp purchasing 1120 W La Veta Ave for $245 P and Hines/Oaktree Capital adding N Glassell St for $187 P along with 5515 E La Palma Ave for $168 P to their portfolio. > FORECAST: Time will tell if investors will see the same type of investment climate seen in Orange County during 2015, which drove sales volume to a 10-year high. $ $ $ $ $50.00 $ $/P Cap Rate Unemployment Rate U.S., C.A. & O.C. Feb % 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Outlook The first quarter of 2016 proved to be a positive start for the Orange County office market as 594,200 of office space was delivered to the market and 1.2 million hit the construction pipeline. Along with Class A trophy building construction, creative office redevelopment will continue to grow. Asking rental rates increased by 3.9% from one quarter ago and momentum is expected to carry through % 4% 2% 0% 5.5% 4.9% 4.0% UNITED STATES CALIFORNIA ORANGE COUNTY 3
4 Market Description Orange County is a moderately large suburban office market comprised of 82 million square feet and represents 29% of the total inventory in office buildings 25,000 square feet and greater in the Los Angeles basin. It is a relatively new and moderate-density market with 41% of the space in Class A buildings. Orange County is home to a broad mix of firms, including significant representation from the finance, insurance, telecommunications, high-tech, real estate, engineering and professional-service sectors. Submarket Map RECENT TRANSACTIONS & MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS Orange County Office Market SALES ACTIVITY PROPERTY ADDRESS SIZE SALE PRICE PRICE P BUYER SELLER 1120 W La Veta Ave, Orange 179,279 $43,950,000 $245/P CRC Real Estate Corp Hankey Investment Company N Glassell St, Orange 191,127 $35,850,000 $187/P Hines/Oaktree Capital Volt Information Sciences, Inc E La Palma Ave, Anaheim 155,351 $25,115,000 $168/P Hines/Oaktree Capital Greenlaw Partners Village Dr, Buena Park 142,347 $21,505,000 $151/P Westcore Properties LBA Realty 2700 N Main St, Santa Ana 111,268 $20,500,000 $184/PFS PRES Companies Durabag Company Inc. LEASING ACTIVITY PROPERTY ADDRESS LEASED LEASE TYPE BLDG CLASS LESSEE LESSOR N Glassell St, Orange 191,127 New Direct B Volt Information Sciences, Inc. Hines/Oaktree Capital Graham St, Huntington Beach 121,120 New Direct A TravisMathew West County Commerce Realty 200 Spectrum Center Dr, Irvine 110,600 New Direct A Mazda Irvine Company 3345 Michelson Dr, Irvine 40,200 New Direct A Alteryx LBA Realty 173 Technology Dr, Irvine 34,600 Sublease B Fisher & Paykel The Irvine Company MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS PROJECT DEVELOPER SIZE SUBMARKET STATUS ESTIMATED COMPLETION The Boardwalk, Irvine Trammell Crow 537,224 Airport Area Under Construction 3Q Spectrum Center, Irvine The Irvine Company 425,044 South County Under Construction 3Q /15495 Sand Canyon Ave, Irvine The Irvine Company 211,200 South County Under Construction 2Q
5 OFFICE OVERVIEW Orange County Office Market EXISTING PROPERTIES VACANCY ACTIVITY ABSORPTION CONSTRUCTION RENTS Submarket/ Class Bldgs Inventory Direct Sublease Prior Qtr Leasing Activity Current Qtr Leasing Activity YTD Net Absorption Current Qtr Net Absorption YTD Completions Current Qtr Under Construction Weighted Avg Asking Lease Rate AIRPORT A ,136, % 0.9% 13.4% 13.2% 307, ,500 (50,900) (50,900) 0 537,200 $2.89 B ,624, % 0.2% 12.3% 12.3% 304, ,000 (1,800) (1,800) 0 0 $2.39 C 61 2,802, % 0.1% 6.0% 5.5% 23,100 23,100 (14,900) (14,900) 0 0 $1.94 SUBTOTAL ,563, % 0.6% 12.5% 12.5% 634, ,600 (67,600) (67,600) 0 537,200 $2.67 CENTRAL A 29 5,620, % 1.2% 15.9% 16.0% 116, ,900 4,100 4, $2.24 B 81 6,331, % 0.4% 21.3% 16.8% 123, ,500 (205,600) (205,600) 96,900 0 $2.00 C 58 2,281, % 0.0% 17.0% 18.8% 41,800 41,800 40,400 40, $1.43 SUBTOTAL ,234, % 0.6% 18.5% 16.8% 282, ,200 (161,100) (161,100) 96,900 0 $1.99 NORTH A 14 1,633, % 4.5% 14.6% 12.8% 43,100 43,100 32,900 32,900 72,300 0 $2.24 B 56 4,984, % 0.0% 9.7% 11.8% 41,700 41, , , $1.95 C , % 0.3% 11.0% 17.0% 28,200 28,200 57,000 57, $1.70 SUBTOTAL 92 7,576, % 1.0% 10.9% 12.7% 113, , , ,600 72,300 0 $1.98 SOUTH A 21 3,753, % 0.7% 16.3% 6.6% 234, ,600 32,000 32, , ,200 $3.04 B ,623, % 0.8% 9.6% 10.9% 174, , , , $2.41 C , % 0.6% 25.6% 21.3% 18,200 18,200 (31,100) (31,100) 0 0 $2.19 SUBTOTAL ,105, % 0.8% 11.9% 10.5% 427, , , , , ,200 $2.59 WEST A 8 1,029, % 0.2% 7.3% 8.2% 32,000 32,000 9,600 9, $2.55 B 53 2,877, % 0.0% 12.7% 11.7% 27,900 27,900 (29,200) (29,200) 0 0 $2.08 C 33 1,377, % 0.0% 14.2% 14.1% 33,700 33,700 (1,800) (1,800) 0 0 $1.81 SUBTOTAL 94 5,284, % 0.0% 12.0% 11.6% 93,600 93,600 (21,400) (21,400) 0 0 $2.05 MARKET TOTAL A ,173, % 1.1% 14.0% 12.9% 734, ,100 27,700 27, ,300 1,173,400 $2.76 B ,441, % 0.4% 12.6% 12.6% 671, ,500 20,700 20,700 96,900 0 $2.22 C 190 8,148, % 0.1% 12.8% 13.5% 145, ,000 49,600 49, $1.74 TOTAL 1,016 82,764, % 0.6% 13.2% 12.8% 1,550,600 1,550,600 98,000 98, ,200 1,173,400 $2.40 Note: revisions to the inventory base were made effective, historical data reported here reflect these revisions and may not match data reported in previous quarters. 5
6 Definitions of key terms in this report Rentable Square Feet: Office space in buildings with 25,000 square feet or more of speculative office space. Includes competitive space in Class A, B and C single-tenant and multi-tenant buildings. Excludes non-competitive owner-occupied buildings, buildings that include 30 percent or greater of medical or retail space, and space that is under-construction, underrenovation or off-market. Class A Space: Space that an image-conscious company would lease for its headquarters. Typically, this space has a very high level of finish and an excellent location, and commands the highest rents in the market. Class B Space: Highly functional, attractive space, but less prestigious than Class A Space, and commanding lower rental rates. Class C Space: Functional, competitive space, but with a lower level of finish and/or a less desirable location than with Class B Space, and commanding lower rental rates. Low-Rise: Buildings with a total of 4 floors or less. Mid-Rise: Buildings with a total of 5 to 13 floors. High-Rise: Buildings with 14 or more floors. Direct : Space in existing buildings that is vacant and immediately available during the quarter for direct lease, plus space that is vacant but not available for direct lease or sublease (for example, that is being held for a future commitment). : Space in existing buildings that is vacant and immediately available during the quarter for direct lease or for sublease, plus space that is vacant but not available for direct lease or sublease. Net Absorption: Net change in occupied square feet from one period to the next (includes the impact of change in vacant space available for sublease). Leasing Activity: Square feet leased from all known transactions completed during the quarter. Excludes lease renewals. Weighted Average Asking Rental Rates: Weighted by the total square feet available for direct lease. Data is based on Full Service Gross rents, and includes all costs associated with occupying the space, including taxes, insurance, maintenance, janitorial service and utilities. Reported on a monthly, per basis. Space Added (Net): square feet added during the quarter via construction completions, including renovated space returned to market, less total square feet taken off-market due to demolitions or conversions. Under Construction: Includes buildings that are in some phase of construction, beginning with foundation work and ending with the issuance of a Certificate of Occupancy Technical Note: Colliers International is continuously refining its database. The data shown in the historical tables and graphics in this report have been adjusted to take into account these changes in the database. This report has been prepared by Colliers International for general information only. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable and no representation is made as to the accuracy thereof. Colliers International does not guarantee, warrant or represent that the information contained in this document is correct. Any interested party should undertake their own inquiries as to the accuracy of the information. Colliers International excludes unequivocally all inferred or implied terms, conditions and warranties arising out of this document and excludes all liability for loss and damages arising there from. This report and other research materials may be found on our website at offices in 66 countries on 6 continents United States: 153 Canada: 34 Latin America: 24 Asia Pacific: 231 EMEA: 112 UNITED STATES: Orange County Office License No Park Plaza, 12th Floor Irvine, CA MARTIN PUPIL President, Western Region CAITLIN MATTESON Research Director Research Services > $2.5 billion in annual revenue > 2.0 billion square feet under management > Over 16,100 professionals TEL: FAX: ROBERT CAUDILL Regional Director/O.C. 6
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