Greater Lansing Association of REALTORS Regional Economic Update HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK FOR 2018

Transcription

1 Greater Lansing Association of REALTORS Regional Economic Update HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK FOR 2018 Paul C. Bishop, PhD, CBE Vice President, Research NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS January 11, 2018

2 Today s Housing Market Environment ü Consumer Sentiment Ownership is Valued ü The Economy Is Solid Demand for Housing Remains Strong ü What s Next? Some Challenges and Opportunities

3 Consumers Believe Buying a Home is a Good Financial Decision 92% Agree than Buying a Home is a Good Financial Decision 90% 88% 86% 84% 82% 80% 78% 76% Source: National Association of REALTORS HOME Survey 2017Q4

4 The American Dream Includes Homeownership Is Homeownership Part of your American Dream? No 13% Yes 85% Strongly Agree 84% Don t Know 2% Moderately Agree 16% Source: National Association of REALTORS HOME Survey 2017Q4

5 Since 2011, 21,000 Jobs Added in Lansing and Unemployment Rate Has Declined Quickly 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 Lansing Metro Job Gains 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% Unemployment Rate U.S. Lansing % Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

6 Despite a Good Economy Home Sales Rising Very Slowly 7,500,000 7,000,000 6,500,000 6,000,000 5,500,000 5,000,000 4,500,000 4,000,000 3,500,000 SAAR U.S. Existing Home Sales 3,000, Source: National Association of REALTORS

7 Less than 6 Months Supply of Existing Homes Since Late months U.S. Months Supply Source: National Association of REALTORS

8 Home Sales in Greater Lansing Area Down Thru October 5,800 5,700 5,600 5,500 5,400 5,300 5,200 5,100 5,000 Home Sales Year-to-date October Comparing Oct 2017 vs 2016 (ytd) Greater Lansing: -1.9% Among 42 Boards in Michigan o Sales increases: 22 Boards o Sales decreases: 20 Boards Source: Michigan REALTORS

9 Home Prices Growing at a Consistent Singe-digit Pace 20% percent change from one year ago U.S. Existing Home Sale Price Growth 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% Source: National Association of REALTORS

10 Home Prices Rising Steadily in Greater Lansing Area $180,000 $160,000 $140,000 $120,000 $100,000 $80,000 $60,000 $40,000 $20,000 $0 Average Home Price Year-to-date October Comparing Oct 2017 vs 2016 (ytd) Greater Lansing: 5.1% Among 42 Boards in Michigan o Prices increases: 39 Boards o Price decreases: 3 Boards Source: Michigan REALTORS

11 Fewer First-time Buyers are Able to Move to Ownership 60% 50% Percent of Existing Homes Sold to First-time Buyers Long-term FTB Share 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Source: National Association of REALTORS

12 Current Renters Point to Affordability as Main Hurdle to Ownership Many Think Getting a Mortgage Would be Difficult Do renters ever want to own a home? Why don t renters own a home? Yes, 79% Millennials: 90% Gen X: 85% Can t afford to buy 36% Life circumstances not suitable for owning now Need flexibility of renting vs owning 33% 16% No, 17% Don t want responsibility of owning 6% Not sure, 4% 56% of renters think it would be difficult to qualify for a mortgage Source: National Association of REALTORS HOME Survey 2017Q4

13 Saving for Downpayment Increasingly Difficult for First-time Buyers 30% Saving for Downpayment Difficult First-time Buyers Repeat Buyers Expenses that Delayed Saving Downpayment (among those who indicated difficulty saving) Student Loans Car Loan Healthcare Costs Credit Card Debt Child Care Expenses 25% 60% 20% 15% 50% 40% 30% 10% 20% 5% 10% 0% 0% First-time Buyers Repeat Buyers Source: National Association of REALTORS

14 How to Think About the Impact of Tax Reform Weighing on the Housing Market Homeownership more costly for some MID limitation for new purchases SALT deduction cap Limits on incentives by doubling standard deduction Supporting the Housing Market Solid growth in jobs and income Demographics favor housing Desire to own still strong Source: National Association of REALTORS

15 What to Plan for in 2018 No significant change in economic outlook, even as we prepare for modestly higher interest rates Prices will continue to rise due to tight inventory and solid demand for homes No relief for the inventory shortage home building up, but a big shortfall to overcome Consumers remain optimistic about home ownership

16 Housing Forecast Forecast 2019 Forecast Housing Starts 1,174,000 1,205,000 1,312,000 1,380,000 New Home Sales 561, , , ,000 Existing Home Sales Median Existing Home Price Growth 5,450,000 5,540,000 5,520,000 5,710, % 5.9% 2.1% 3.6% 30-year Mtg Rate 3.6% 4.0% 4.4% 4.8% Source: National Association of REALTORS (January 2018)

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18 Paul C. Bishop PhD, CBE Vice President, Research linkedin.com/in/pcbishop/ Download this presentation at: