Shrinking Supply Continues To Push Rates

Transcription

1 Research & Forecast Report STOCKTON SAN JOAQUIN COUNTY OFFICE Q Shrinking Supply Continues To Push Rates > Office inventory: 8,221,819 > Vacancy: 10.5 percent > Net absorption: 49,103 year-to-date The East Bay office market has continued to report consistent rent growth and absorption. With the overall vacancy rate in the Tri-Valley at 10.4 percent and Class A asking rents pushing $3.00 per square foot full service gross, the activity is only expected to continue, and the Central Valley office market is slowly following suit. The Central Valley's office market vacancy rate closed the first quarter of 2017 at 10.5 percent and is down 110 basis points from this time one year ago. Quarterly net absorption for San Joaquin County overall totaled 49,103 square feet. The county experienced a slight decrease in the overall average asking lease rate, dropping from $1.29 to $1.27 per square foot. Class A asking rents have increased by $0.04 over a year ago to $1.49 per square foot per month as the vacancy has decreased by 140 basis points to 14.6 percent at the close of the first quarter. The vacancy rates for Class B and C product have decreased from the first quarter of 2016 to 9.0 percent and 4.9 percent respectively. The prices per square foot for office sales in the first quarter averaged $156.07, and the average cap rate was 6.23 percent. Market Indicators United States 10-Year Nominal Consumer Unemployment Rate Interest Rate Confidence 4.5% 9.61% Market Trends Relative to prior period Q Q2 2017* Vacancy Net Absorption Construction Lease Rates Cap Rates Land Prices *Projected Historical Vacancy and Average Asking Rates San Joaquin County Overall 15% $ % $1.30 Summary Statistics San Joaquin County Office Market Previous Quarter Current Quarter Vacancy Rate 11.1% 10.5% Overall Asking Rate* $1.29 $1.27 Class A Asking Rate* $1.49 $1.49 Class B Asking Rate* $1.10 $1.06 Class C Asking Rate* $1.04 $1.03 Net Absorption (34,958) (49,103) *Asking rates are reported on a full service monthly basis 5% 0% 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 Vacancy Rate Asking Lease Rate (FSG) The Central Valley office market s vacancy rate closed the first quarter of 2017 at 10.5 percent and is down 110 basis points from this time one year ago. $1.20 $1.10 U.S. Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate 4.7% 4.5% Labor Force Participation Rate 62.7% 63.0% Consumer Price Index 2.41% 2.44% Interest Rate - 10 Yr Treasury 2.45% 2.40% Business Confidence Consumer Confidence Data Source: EDD Labor Market Information Division

2 With vacancy on a continuous decline, the conversation with developers is when to build. Rates are not yet at the level to support ground up speculative construction in the office sector, and unfortunately there are few developers that practice Buzz Oates' manifesto, "build and they will come." There are however a handful of build-to-suit requirements in the market where developers are more than happy to charge healthy lease rates for building and accommodating termed tenants. The Stockton City Council is fully supportive of new commercial development and has committed to offering an expedited plan review for new commercial buildings. Stockton The Stockton submarket vacancy rate fell to 12.1 percent in the first quarter of The vacancy rate dropped 90 basis points over this time one year ago and saw net absorption of 49,549 square feet for the quarter. The average asking lease rate for all product classes in Stockton was $1.33 per square foot per month, $0.05 higher than this time one year ago., a tax exchange driven investor, purchased four Brookside Class A buildings, making this investor the largest privately owned commercial real estate portfolio in the Brookside area with over 85,000 square feet. ' recent transactions have driven the Brookside Class A property values to record highs, averaging $ per square foot. Lathrop The vacancy rate for the Lathrop submarket ended the quarter at 24.3 percent, an 840 basis point decrease from one year ago. The Lathrop average asking lease rates have also increased dramatically over this time one year ago, increasing from $0.80 per square foot to $1.07 per square foot. The small submarket which typically has very small changes in absorption saw no change in absorption for the first quarter and has roughly 50,000 square feet of available Class A and B space with no available Class C space. Lodi The vacancy rate across all product in the Lodi submarket decreased to 3.7 percent in the first quarter. During the first quarter the average asking lease rate for all product decreased by $0.15 as 9,460 square feet of Class A space was absorbed and 6,855 square feet of Class C space became available. The average asking lease rate for Lodi is now $1.17 per square foot. The submarket absorbed 6,108 square feet during the quarter leaving 35,000 square feet available in that market. Manteca The vacancy rate for Manteca followed the trend of other San Joaquin submarkets with decreasing vacancy and now has a vacancy rate of 1.8 percent with only 8,229 square feet available in the submarket, a decrease from 2.3 percent the previous quarter. A small portion of the available space in the submarket is sublease office space. The overall average asking lease rate for the submarket at the end of the quarter was $1.43 per square foot per month. Tracy Tracy was the only submarket to add space back to the availability increasing the vacancy rate to 4.5 percent at the close of the quarter. The submarket now has just over 24,000 square feet available for occupancy and had negative absorption of 8,379 square feet. The average asking lease rate for the Tracy submarket at the close of the quarter was $1.61 per square foot per month. There were three notable sales during the third quarter in the submarket. The sale of 2316 Orchard Parkway, 14,083 square feet of Class B office space, commanded a large price per square foot of $ with a cap rate of 6.65 percent for the investment sale. Another sale of 9,558 square feet at 2680 Tracy Boulevard sold for $ per square foot at a cap rate of 6.25 percent. The third notable sale in the Tracy submarket was a 1,490 square foot condo at 4600 S. Tracy Boulevard that sold for $ per square foot. Outlook With lease rates still on the rise, we will continue to see owner/ user purchases in the market for companies that see themselves in business for the forseeable future. As Class A available space continues to tighten, tenants will be forced to look at third and fourth generation Class B space where tenant improvement packages are necessary and which in turn will command higher lease rates and longer termed leases. The Dow Jones unprecedented numbers over the past 60 days are beginning to cause concern for a looming market correction in the near future, however, most real estate and market analysts do not believe a severe correction is in store, rather a more likely slowing in leasing activity as related to rising interest rates is forecast QUAIL LAKES DRIVE, STOCKTON 4750 Quail Lakes Drive, a prestigious Class B office building, offers high visibility and ease of access to I-5 North and South via March Lane. The available space includes a lobby area, multiple private offices, conference room, private restrooms, kitchen/ breakroom and plenty of storage. 2 San Joaquin County Research & Forecast Report Q Office Colliers International

3 Significant Lease & Sale Activity 99 Schatz Construction & Restoration 21 Houston Lane, Lodi February ,800 Class C Office Lease 5 LODI Green Mountain Engineering 6653 Embarcadero Drive, Stockton 1,465 Class B Office Lease Brookside Road, Stockton February ,228 Class A Office Sale 4 Phoenix Roofing Co W. March Lane, Stockton 1,348 Class B Office Lease STOCKTON LATHROP MANTECA Bankers Life and Casualty Company 1776 W. March Lane, Stockton 2,604 Class A Office Lease 3414 Brookside Road, Stockton 9,925 Class B Office Sale RIPON 3461 Brookside Road, Stockton 13,000 Class B Medical Office Sale 580 TRACY 5 99 J&M Homecare Services 3453 Brookside Road, Stockton 2,366 Class B Office Lease Javier & Maria Mercado Trust 2316 Orchard Parkway, Tracy 14,083 Class B Office Sale = LEASE = SALE Kintex Ho, Yun Lu & Jun Li 2680 Tracy Boulevard, Tracy 9,558 Class B Office Sale 3 San Joaquin County Research & Forecast Report Q Office Colliers International

4 Market Comparisons San Joaquin County OFFICE MARKET CLASS BLDGS TOTAL INVENTORY DIRECT DIRECT SUBLEASE SUBLEASE TOTAL QUARTER PRIOR QUARTER OCCUPIED SPACE NET ABSORPTION QTR NET ABSORPTION YTD COMPLETIONS QTR UNDER CONSTRUCTION WEIGHTED AVG ASKING FSG LATHROP A 3 72,208 17, % - 0.0% 17, % 24.0% 54, $1.00 B 2 137,288 37, % - 0.0% 37, % 27.3% 99, $1.10 C 2 16, % - 0.0% - 0.0% 0.0% 16, Total 7 225,580 54, % - 0.0% 54, % 24.3% 170, $1.07 LODI A ,874 22, % - 0.0% 22, % 8.5% 358,934 9,460 9, $1.25 B , % - 0.0% % 0.9% 432,923 3,503 3, $1.42 C ,261 12, % - 0.0% 12, % 3.8% 126,098 (6,855) (6,855) - - $1.00 Total ,445 35, % - 0.0% 35, % 4.4% 917,955 6,108 6, $1.17 MANTECA A , % 1, % 1, % 2.8% 106,851 1,225 1, $1.80 B ,543 6, % - 0.0% 6, % 3.8% 181, $1.33 C , % - 0.0% - 0.0% 0.0% 150, Total ,468 6, % 1, % 8, % 2.3% 438,239 1,825 1, $1.43 RIPON A 5 49,411 8, % - 0.0% 8, % 16.8% 41, $1.45 B 3 16, % - 0.0% - 0.0% 0.0% 16, C 1 5, % - 0.0% 0.0% 5, Total 9 71,443 8, % - 0.0% 8, % 11.6% 63, $1.45 STOCKTON A 51 1,958, , % 2, % 351, % 19.0% 1,566,310 11,908 11, ,000 $1.52 B 178 3,353, , % - 0.0% 336, % 10.7% 3,017,162 22,664 22, $1.16 C ,720 41, % - 0.0% 41, % 7.9% 674,029 14,977 14, $1.03 Total 280 5,987, , % 2, % 730, % 13.1% 5,257,501 49,549 49, ,000 $1.33 TRACY A ,188 14, % - 0.0% 14, % 4.9% 245,208 (2,170) (2,170) - - $1.67 B ,366 7, % - 0.0% 7, % 0.8% 156,889 (6,229) (6,229) - - $1.55 C ,527 1, % - 0.0% 1, % 1.5% 110, $1.36 Total ,081 24, % - 0.0% 24, % 2.9% 512,944 (8,379) (8,379) - - $1.61 MARKET TOTAL A 96 2,790, , % 4, % 417, % 15.7% 2,373,322 20,423 20, ,000 $1.49 B 253 4,293, , % - 0.0% 388, % 9.5% 3,904,930 20,538 20, $1.06 C 98 1,137,933 55, % - 0.0% 55, % 5.6% 1,082,399 8,142 8, $1.03 Total 447 8,221, , % 4, % 861, % 11.1% 7,360,651 49,103 49, ,000 $1.27 QUARTERLY COMPARISON AND TOTALS Q ,221, , % 4, % 861, % 11.1% 7,360,651 49,103 49, ,000 $1.27 Q ,221, , % 3, % 910, % 10.6% 7,311,548 (34,958) (27,148) - 306,000 $1.29 Q ,221, , % 3, % 875, % 11.2% 7,346,506 43,068 7, ,000 $1.32 Q ,221, , % 1, % 918, % 11.5% 7,303,438 29,184 (35,248) - 306,000 $1.30 Q ,221, , % - 0.0% 947, % 10.7% 7,274,254 (64,432) (64,432) - 306,000 $ San Joaquin County Research & Forecast Report Q Office Colliers International

5 396 offices in 68 countries on 6 continents United States: 153 Canada: 29 Latin America: 24 Asia Pacific: 36 EMEA: 111 ANZ: 43 $2.6 billion in annual revenue* COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL STOCKTON 3439 Brookside Road, Suite 108 Stockton, CA USA MANAGING DIRECTOR Michael Goldstein, SIOR Executive Managing Director CA License No michael.goldstein@colliers.com RESEARCHER Kyle Mecker Research Analyst kyle.mecker@colliers.com CONTRIBUTING AUTHOR Erica Frey Associate 2.0 billion square feet under management 15,000 professionals and staff *All statistics are for 2016 and include affiliates About Colliers International Colliers International Group Inc. (NASDAQ and TSX: CIGI) is an industry-leading global real estate services company with 15,000 skilled professionals operating in 68 countries. With an enterprising culture and significant employee ownership, Colliers professionals provide a full range of services to real estate occupiers, owners and investors worldwide. Services include strategic advice and execution for property sales, leasing and finance; global corporate solutions; property, facility and project management; workplace solutions; appraisal, valuation and tax consulting; customized research; and thought leadership consulting. Colliers professionals think differently, share great ideas and offer thoughtful and innovative advice that help clients accelerate their success. Colliers has been ranked among the top 100 global outsourcing firms by the International Association of Outsourcing Professionals for 12 consecutive years, more than any other real estate services firm. For the latest news from Colliers, visit Colliers.com or follow us on and LinkedIn. colliers.com/stockton Copyright 2017 Colliers International. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report.