Metropolitan Indianapolis Board of REALTORS. Broker/Owner Meeting March 14, 2007

Transcription

1 Metropolitan Indianapolis Board of REALTORS Broker/Owner Meeting March 14, 2007

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3 Tom Renkert Information Services Director MIBOR

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5 PropertyLinx 2 Implementation Time Line February 1-28 March 1 June 30 July 1 August 31 REVIEW PERIOD MLS Committee Training Functionality Testing PROMOTE & DEMO Division Meetings Office Sales Meetings MEMBER TRAINING Presentation style and hands-on training September 5 PropertyLinx 2 Fully Operational Review & Testing Office & Division Demonstrations Member Training

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28 Training begins in July. Watch Fast Track for updates!

29 PropertyLinx 2 Implementation Time Line February 1-28 March 1 June 30 July 1 August 31 REVIEW PERIOD MLS Committee Training Functionality Testing PROMOTE & DEMO Division Meetings Office Sales Meetings MEMBER TRAINING Presentation style and hands-on training September 5 PropertyLinx 2 Fully Operational Review & Testing Office & Division Demonstrations Member Training

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31 REALTOR Political Action Committee (RPAC) Larry Mitchell MPAC Trustee

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33 What If REALTORS never have an opportunity for affordable health care A 17% tax is charged on all real estate transactions Additional fees are charged on housing Property taxes (enough said)

34 Why PAC s Exist? Committees (PAC) exist because of election funding laws that limit an organization s ability to contribute to political campaigns. Because MIBOR does not use dues dollars to support candidates, the PAC is its vehicle to do so.

35 What exactly is RPAC? I think I know, but 100% of contributions go to candidates (none is used for administration or staff) A voluntary fund that allows only members of MIBOR to pool money together to endorse candidates. MIBOR members make all decisions on endorsements

36 Efforts in Washington, DC Affordable health care for REALTORS 1 in 4 REALTORS have no health insurance (1,825 MIBOR members have no insurance) REALTOR groups and agents should be able to band together to negotiate lower premiums Can you put a price on the ease of mind for health care?

37 Efforts in Indiana Defeated a 17% transfer tax Reducing Indiana s reliance on property taxes. Fighting a $40 fee/tax on housing

38 Efforts at Local Level Zoning in Montgomery County Sign Ordinance Deregulation Private Property Rights Economic Development Recruiting high paying jobs Building roads and infrastructure Smart growth

39 Brokers: RPAC Needs Your Leadership 1. Talk about RPAC to your agents 2. Make a $99 contribution 3. Help us reach our $109,000 goal by June 30 th

40 Why? What if we didn t participate?

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42 Tom Renkert Information Services Director MIBOR

43 Direct Soliciting by Seller New Statement of NAR MLS Policy related to types of listings that will appear on MIBOR website publications such as REALTOR.com and MIBOR.com.

44 Direct Soliciting by Seller Is there a for sale by owner or other sign or notice on the property indicating that the seller is soliciting direct contact from buyers? If Yes, MIBOR will not include property in MIBOR website publications such as MIBOR.com & REALTOR.com All listings will be available in IDX database. Brokers independently make choices for which listings will appear on their site.

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46 David Berson Vice President & Chief Economist Fannie Mae

47 Economic, Housing & Mortgage Market Outlook March 14, 2007 David W. Berson Vice President & Chief Economist

48 What You Want to Know: We expect economic growth modestly below trend in The Fed has probably finished tightening, and may ease later this year. Long-term rates should be little changed from current levels. Home sales should drop again in 2007, but the worst declines are likely behind us. Home price gains are slowing sharply, with price declines in some areas. Purchase originations should drop in 2007, while refinancings are projected to slip modestly.

49 GDP Growth At a Slightly Below-Trend Pace 8% 6% Trend Growth % 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% Q1:90 Q1:92 Q1:94 Q1:96 Q1:98 Q1:00 Q1:02 Q1:04 Q1:06 Q1:08 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Fannie Mae forecast

50 Payroll Employment Growth: National vs. Indiana 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% Q1:90 Q1:91 Q1:92 Q1:93 Q1:94 Q1:95 Q1:96 Q1:97 Q1:98 Q1:99 Q1:00 Q1:01 Q1:02 Q1:03 Q1:04 Q1:05 Q1:06 Year/Year National Indiana Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

51 Payroll Employment Growth: National vs. Indianapolis 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% Q1:90 Q1:91 Q1:92 Q1:93 Q1:94 Q1:95 Q1:96 Q1:97 Q1:98 Q1:99 Q1:00 Q1:01 Q1:02 Q1:03 Q1:04 Q1:05 Q1:06 Year/Year Indianapolis National Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

52 Consumer Sentiment Will the Bounce in Sentiment Hold? Index 66Q1 = Good Time to Buy = Good Time Bad Time +100 Good Time to Buy a Home (left axis) Consumer Sentiment (right axis) Jan- 90 Jan- 91 Jan- 92 Jan- 93 Jan- 94 Jan- 95 Jan- 96 Jan- 97 Jan- 98 Jan- 99 Jan- 00 Jan- 01 Jan- 02 Jan- 03 Jan- 04 Jan- 05 Jan- Jan Source: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey

53 Inflation* Will Core Inflation Drop Into the Fed s Target Range? 7% 6% Year-Ago Percent Change History Forecast 5% Q1:90 Q1:91 Q1:92 Q1:93 Q1:94 Q1:95 Q1:96 Q1:97 Q1:98 Q1:99 Q1:00 Q1:01 Q1:02 Q1:03 Q1:04 Q1:05 Q1:06 Q1:07 Q1:08 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% *Consumer Price Index Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI Core Rate CPI

54 Federal Funds Rate Fed Done for Now May Ease Later in % 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% History Forecast Q1:90 Q1:92 Q1:94 Q1:96 Q1:98 Q1:00 Q1:02 Q1:04 Q1:06 Q1:08 Source: Federal Reserve Board, Fannie Mae forecast

55 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% Long-Term Interest Rates Not Much Change 30-Year FRM 10-Year Treasury History Forecast Q1:90 Q3:91 Q1:93 Q3:94 Q1:96 Q3:97 Q1:99 Q3:00 Q1:02 Q3:03 Q1:05 Q3:06 Q1:08 Source: Freddie Mac, Federal Reserve Board, Fannie Mae forecast

56 Homeownership Rate No Longer Rising as Affordability Falls 70% 69% 68% 67% 66% 65% 64% 63% 62% Q1:80 Q1:82 Q1:84 Q1:86 Q1:88 Q1:90 Q1:92 Q1:94 Q1:96 Q1:98 Q1:00 Q1:02 Q1:04 Q1:06 Source: Bureau of the Census

57 1.4 Millions of Units New Home Sales Down Again in Source: Bureau of the Census, Fannie Mae forecast

58 New Home Inventories Still High Suggests Weakness in Prices Thousands Months Supply at Current Rate (right axis) Homes for Sale at End of Month (left axis) 200 Months Jan:1990 Jan:1991 Jan:1992 Jan:1993 Jan:1994 Jan:1995 Jan:1996 Jan:1997 Jan:1998 Jan:1999 Jan:2000 Jan:2001 Jan:2002 Jan:2003 Jan:2004 Jan:2005 Jan:2006 Jan:2007 Source: Bureau of the Census

59 2,400 2,100 1,800 1,500 1, Thousands of Units Housing Starts Down Again in 2007 Multifamily Single-family Source: Bureau of the Census, Fannie Mae forecast

60 Millions of Units Existing Home Sales Down Again in Source: National Association of Realtors, Fannie Mae forecast

61 Existing Single-Family Home Inventories Inventories Still High Thousands Months Supply At Current Sales Rate (right axis) Homes for Sale at End of Month (left axis) Months Jan:1990 Jan:1991 Jan:1992 Jan:1993 Jan:1994 Jan:1995 Jan:1996 Jan:1997 Jan:1998 Jan:1999 Jan:2000 Jan:2001 Jan:2002 Jan:2003 Jan:2004 Jan:2005 Jan:2006 Jan:2007 Source: National Association of Realtors

62 Dec-05 Sep-06 Jun-04 Mar-05 Investor Share Falling But Still High 25% 20% 15% 10% Investor & Second Home 5% 0% Investor Sep-91 Jun-92 Mar-93 Dec-93 Sep-94 Jun-95 Mar-96 Dec-96 Sep-97 Jun-98 Mar-99 Dec-99 Sep-00 Jun-01 Mar-02 Dec-02 Sep-03 Note: Shares are based upon number of Prime Conventional Conforming Purchase loans Source: LoanPerformance September 2006 data

63 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% Home Price Gains Slowing Sharply, Will They Decline? Year-Ago Percent Change Purchase Only House Price Index House Price Index 4% 2% 0% Q1:87 Q1:89 Q1:91 Q1:93 Q1:95 Q1:97 Q1:99 Q1:01 Q1:03 Q1:05 Source: OFHEO

64 OFHEO Home Price Index: National vs. Indiana 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Q1:90 Q1:91 Q1:92 Q1:93 Q1:94 Q1:95 Q1:96 Q1:97 Q1:98 Q1:99 Q1:00 Q1:01 Q1:02 Q1:03 Q1:04 Q1:05 Q1:06 Year/Year National Indiana Source: Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight

65 OFHEO Home Price Index: National vs. Indianapolis 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Q1:90 Q1:91 Q1:92 Q1:93 Q1:94 Q1:95 Q1:96 Q1:97 Q1:98 Q1:99 Q1:00 Q1:01 Q1:02 Q1:03 Q1:04 Q1:05 Q1:06 Year/Year National Indianapolis Source: Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight

66 Five-Year House Price Growth, Single Family 2001 Q Q4 Canada Mexico Below 25% 25% - 50% 50% - 75% 75% - 100% Above 100% Source: Fannie Mae

67 One-Year House Price Growth, Single Family 2005 Q Q4 Canada Mexico Source: Fannie Mae Below 0% 0% - 5% 5% - 10% 10% - 15% Above 15%

68 Serious Delinquency Rates National vs. Indiana Q1:90 Q1:91 Q1:92 Q1:93 Q1:94 Q1:95 Q1:96 Q1:97 Q1:98 Q1:99 Q1:00 Q1:01 Q1:02 Q1:03 Q1:04 Q1:05 Q1:06 Indiana National Source: Mortgage Bankers Association *90 days past due and foreclosures started

69 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-04 Jan Index, 16-Mar-90 =100, SA MBA Purchase Index Up, Down, or Sideways? March 2 Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Source: Mortgage Bankers Association of America Weekly Mortgage Application Survey

70 Jan-07 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Index, 16-Mar-90 =100, SA MBA Refinance Index Stable March 2 Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Source: Mortgage Bankers Association of America Weekly Mortgage Application Survey

71 Percent ARM Share of Mortgage Applications* Falling March 2 Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 *By number of loans Source: Mortgage Bankers Association of America Weekly Mortgage Application Survey

72 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Mortgage Originations Pulled Down by Purchases Billions of Dollars Refis Purchase Source: HUD, Fannie Mae estimates (1998 forward), Fannie Mae forecast

73 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Mortgage Debt Outstanding Finally Slowing Year/Year Percent Change Q1:90 Q1:91 Q1:92 Q1:93 Q1:94 Q1:95 Q1:96 Q1:97 Q1:98 Q1:99 Q1:00 Q1:01 Q1:02 Q1:03 Q1:04 Q1:05 Q1:06 Q1:07 Q1:08 Source: Federal Reserve Board, Fannie Mae forecast

74 Things to Take Away: Economic activity slightly below trend through Odds of a downturn are still low. Fed tightening likely done easing later in 2007? Long-term rates should be little changed. Housing activity down again in 2007, but by less than in Regional home price weakness could cause a national price decline. Originations should fall in Pulled down by purchases, with refis down a bit.

75 Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts and other views of Fannie Mae's Economics & Mortgage Market Analysis (EMMA) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business prospects or expected results, and are subject to change without notice. Although the EMMA group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts and other views published by the EMMA group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.

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