CALIFORNIA ECONOMIC & MARKET OUTLOOK. October 29,2014 Contra Costa Association of REALTORS Leslie Appleton Young, Chief Economist
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1 CALIFORNIA ECONOMIC & MARKET OUTLOOK October 29,2014 Contra Costa Association of REALTORS Leslie Appleton Young, Chief Economist
2 OVERVIEW Economic Outlook California Housing Market Outlook Housing Affordability Regional Market 2015 Forecast
3 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
4 ECONOMY: GAINING MOMENTUM 2013: 1.9%; 2014: 2.2%; 2015: 3.0%; 2014 Q2: ANNUAL PERCENT 4.6% CHANGE, CHAIN TYPE (2005) $ ANNUALLY QUARTERLY 2009 Largest Annual Drop since 1938 ( 3.4%) SERIES: GDP SOURCE: US Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
5 US UNEMPLOYMENT RATE BELOW 6% CA 7.3% (Sep. 2014) vs. US 5.9% (Sep. 2014) SERIES: Unemployment Rate SOURCE: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, CA Employment Development Division
6 EMPLOYMENT GROWTH, CA VS. U.S. ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE SERIES: Total Nonfarm Employment SOURCE: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, CA Employment Development Division
7 PERCENT JOB LOSSES PRIOR RECESSIONS RECENT CYCLE WORST BY FAR
8 EMPLOYMENT GROWTH, BY INDUSTRY September 2014: CA +2.3%, +390,600 ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE SERIES: Total Nonfarm Employment By Industry SOURCE: CA Employment Development Division
9 CALIFORNIA JOB CHANGES BY INDUSTRY September 2014: CA +2.3%, +390,600 ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE SERIES: Total Nonfarm Employment By Industry SOURCE: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, CA Employment Development Division
10 JOB TRENDS BY CALIFORNIA METRO AREA September 2014: CA +2.3%, +390,600 ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE SERIES: Total Nonfarm Employment SOURCE: CA Employment Development Division
11 CONSUMER PRICE INDEX September 2014: All Items +1.7% YTY; Core +1.7% ANNUAL PERCENT YTY CHANGE SERIES: Consumer Price Index SOURCE: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
12 INDEX, 100=1985 CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: UNCERTAINTY October 2014: 94.5 SERIES: Consumer Confidence SOURCE: The Conference Board
13 MORTGAGE RATES: WHAT HAPPENED? January 2009 October 2014 MONTHLY WEEKLY SERIES: 30Yr FRM, 1Yr ARM SOURCE: Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation
14 FORECASTERS HAVE BEEN EXPECTING RATES TO RISE Percent 6 6 Percent Actual 10-year Treasury yield (solid black line) Predictions out to five quarters ahead of professional forecasters (hatched lines) SERIES: Loan Officer Survey SOURCE: Philadelphia Federal Reserve Survey of Professional Forecasters, Bloomberg
15 MORTGAGE RATES + 1% SPRING 2013 ACTUAL TAPERING? NO IMPACT? SERIES: 30Yr FRM, 1Yr ARM, Federal Funds SOURCE: Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation
16 $ BILLIONS U.S. DEPOSITORY INSTITUTIONS: HIGH LEVEL OF EXCESS RESERVES SINCE 9/08 SERIES: Excess Reserves of Depository Institutions SOURCE: Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis
17 U.S. ECONOMIC FORECAST P 2015 F Gross Domestic Product 1.8% 2.8% 1.9% 2.2% 3.0% Nonfarm Job Growth 1.2% 1.7% 1.7% 1.8% 2.2% Unemployment Rate 8.9% 8.1% 7.4% 6.2% 5.8% Consumer Price Index 3.1% 2.1% 1.5% 2.0% 2.2% Real Disposable Income, % Change 1.3% 1.5% 0.7% 2.6% 2.6% SERIES: U.S. Economic Outlook SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
18 CALIFORNIA ECONOMIC FORECAST P 2015 F Nonfarm Job Growth 1.1% 2.4% 3.0% 2.2% 2.4% Unemployment Rate 11.8% 10.4% 8.9% 7.5% 6.7% Population Growth 0.7% 0.7% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% Real Disposable Income, % Change 1.9% 1.1% 0.9% 3.0% 3.8% SERIES: CA Economic Outlook SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
19 CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK
20 TODAY S MARKET Clearly well on the road to recovering Bay Area strongest regional market Volume A bit down, still reliant on investment sales Prices up sharply, but increases slowing in most markets Inventory remains tight but up from last year Pent up/unrealized demand not yet translating into sales Affordability challenges emerging once again
21 CA SALES FLAT SINCE SPRING 2014 California, Sep Sales: 396,440 Units, 9.5% YTD, 4.2% YTY Sep 13: 413,850 Sep 14: 396,440 SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS *Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized
22 MULTIPLE OFFERS DECLINE WITH LESS INTENSE MARKET COMPETITION IN 2014 AFTER PEAKING IN 2013 SERIES: 2014 Housing Market Survey SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
23 49 % SOLD BELOW ASKING IN 2014 Median Reduction: 4.5% of List Price SERIES: 2014 Housing Market Survey SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
24 FEWER HOMES SOLD ABOVE THE ASKING PRICE AS MARKET COMPETITION COOLED IN 2014 Long Run Average = 19% QUESTION: What was the original list sales price of the property? What was the final sales price of the property? How many weeks did the property remain on the MLS? SERIES: 2014 Housing Market Survey SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
25 INVESTMENT HOMES : 15% MARKET SHARE Long Run Average: 12 % SERIES: 2013 Housing Market Survey SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
26 WE VE COME A LONG WAY SINCE 2009: EQUITY SALES: 9 OUT OF 10 TRANSACTIONS SERIES: Distressed Sales, Not Seasonally Adjusted SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
27 DISTRESSED SALES: BAY AREA Percent of Total Sales SERIES: Distressed Sales, Not Seasonally Adjusted SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
28 CONTRA COSTA COUNTY Preforeclosure: 672 Auction: 455 Bank Owned: 161 SOURCE: PropertyRadar.com as of 10/14/14
29 CONTRA COSTA COUNTY Preforeclosure: 672 Auction: 455 Bank Owned: 161 SOURCE: PropertyRadar.com as of 10/14/14
30 CONTRA COSTA COUNTY Preforeclosure: 672 Auction: 455 Bank Owned: 161 SOURCE: PropertyRadar.com as of 10/14/14
31 CONCORD Preforeclosure: 60 Auction: 39 Bank Owned: 18 SOURCE: PropertyRadar.com as of 10/14/14
32 WALNUT CREEK Preforeclosure: 27 Auction: 11 Bank Owned: 2 SOURCE: PropertyRadar.com as of 10/14/14
33 DANVILLE Preforeclosure: 36 Auction: 15 Bank Owned: 3 SOURCE: PropertyRadar.com as of 10/14/14
34 RICHMOND Preforeclosure: 87 Auction: 48 Bank Owned: 30 SOURCE: PropertyRadar.com as of 10/14/14
35 SALES GROWING IN HIGHER PRICE RANGES SERIES: Sales of Existing Detached Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
36 CHANGE IN SALES BY PRICE RANGE (Year to Year) SERIES: Sales of Existing Detached Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
37 PRICE PLATEAU AHEAD; ANNUAL GAINS SLOWING California, Sep. 2014: $460,940, Up 7.6% YTY Sep 13: $428,290 Sep 14: $460,940 SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
38 TROUGH VS. CURRENT PRICE By Counties, August 2014 Region Trough Month Trough Price Aug 14 Median %Chg Fr Trough Ventura Feb 09 $359,630 $602, % Tulare Apr 11 $111,600 $184, % Mendocino Jun 11 $181,430 $291, % San Francisco Jan 12 $561,270 $900, % Kings Jul 11 $114,290 $183, % Orange Jan 09 $442,170 $699, % Contra Costa Jan 12 $476,470 $750, % San Diego Mar 09 $326,830 $510, % Fresno Jan 12 $131,070 $203, % SERIES: Median Price of Existing Detached Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
39 CALIFORNIA VS. U.S. MEDIAN PRICES SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: SOURCE: CALIFORNIA CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION ASSOCIATION OF OF REALTORS
40 INVENTORY IMPROVING FROM LAST YEAR Sept 2013: 3.6 Months; Sept 2014: 4.2 Months Note: Unsold Inventory Index represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were Active, Pending, and Contingent (when available) and divide the sum by the number of Sold properties for the month in question. SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
41 INVENTORY HIGHER AT UPPER PRICE RANGES Price Range (Thousand) Sep 14 Aug 14 Sep 13 $1,000K $ K $ K $ K $ K $ K $0 199K Note: Unsold Inventory Index represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were Active, Pending, and Contingent (when available) and divide the sum by the number of Sold properties for the month in question. SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
42 WHY WAS/IS INVENTORY SO LOW? Demand Side Housing affordability was at historic highs Low rates hurt investment alternatives International buyers Supply Side Little new construction for last 5 years Underwater homeowners are stuck Mortgage Lock In Effect No inventory to move up Foreclosure pipeline drying up Investors are renting instead of flipping Off market (aka pocket ) listings
43 BUYING TO RENT V. FLIP; CHANGE IN PREFERRED INVESTMENT STRATEGY 2013: 18% 2014: 30% Investment to Flip 2013: 82% 2014: 70% Rental Property SERIES: 2014 Housing Market Survey SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
44 HOUSING AFFORDABILITY
45 REAL ENEMY OF THE FUTURE OF CALIFORNIA? Housing Affordability The Achilles Heel of the California Economy What happens when housing costs are too high? Impact on jobs and economic growth Impact on neighborhoods and family stability
46 HOUSING AFFORDABILITY DOWN SHARPLY SINCE Q % OF HOUSEHOLDS THAT CAN BUY A MEDIAN PRICED HOME California vs. U.S Annual Quarterly SERIES: Housing Affordability Index of Traditional Buyers SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
47 PITI/Month SOME GOOD NEWS:MEDIAN CA HOUSE PAYMENT WELL BELOW PEAK PEAK Peak: $3,668/mo (2007 Q2) Latest: $2,340/mo (2014 Q2) SERIES: Housing Affordability Index SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
48 MINIMUM QUALIFYING INCOME ALSO WELL BELOW PEAK Min. Income Peak: $146,701/yr (2007 Q2) Latest: $93,593/yr (2014 Q2) SERIES: Housing Affordability Index SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
49 HOUSE PAYMENT (INFLATION ADJUSTED) IS AT LATE 1970 S LEVEL PITI/Month (ADJUSTED FOR INFLATION) Peak: $928/mo (2006) Latest: $458/mo (2013) SERIES: Housing Affordability Index SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
50 MINIMUM QUALIFYING INCOME IS THE SAME AS 35 YEARS AGO Min. Income (Adjusted for Inflation) Peak: $37,122 (2006) Latest: $18,337 (2013) SERIES: Housing Affordability Index SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
51 HOUSING AFFORDABILITY INDEX What Will Happen When MORTGAGE RATES Increase? % OF HOUSEHOLDS THAT CAN BUY, ALL ELSE CONSTANT Q Median Price $457,140 20% Down payment INTEREST RATE SERIES: Housing Affordability Index SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
52 MEDIAN MONTHLY MORTGAGE PAYMENT MONTHLY MORTGAGE What Will Happen When Mortgage Rates Increase? Q Median Price $457,140 20% Down payment INTEREST RATE SERIES: Housing Affordability Index SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
53 MINIMUM QUALIFYING INCOME MONTHLY MORTGAGE What Will Happen When Mortgage Rates Increase? Q Median Price $457,140 20% Down payment INTEREST RATE SERIES: Housing Affordability Index SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
54 INCOME REQUIRED TO BUY A MEDIAN PRICED HOME IN CA: (PEAK VS. CURRENT) Change in minimum required income: $37,269 Increase in income attributed to interest rate increase: $836 (2.2% of total change) Increase in income attributed to price increase : $36,433 (97.8% of total change) SERIES: Housing Affordability Index SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
55 SHARE OF FIRST TIME BUYERS UP BUT STILL BELOW LONG RUN AVERAGE Long Run Average = 38% QUESTION: Was the buyer a first time buyer? SERIES: 2014 Housing Market Survey SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
56 WHY DO WE CARE ABOUT LOW LEVEL OF FIRST TIME BUYER? It signals a constrained flow of new households in the housing market Trade up market cannot be replenished in the long run First time buyers represent the main impulse that drives the state s homeownership rate
57 FINANCIAL CHARACTERISTICS: FIRST TIME VS. REPEAT First time Buyers Repeat Buyers All Buyers Median Household Income $80,000 $120,000 $100,000 Median Monthly Mortgage Payment $1,477 $1,868 $1,800 Median Downpayment (in $$) $32,500 $100,000 $70,000 Median Downpayment (in % to Price) 10% 20% 19.7% SERIES: 2014 Housing Market Survey SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
58 REASONS FOR RENTING INSTEAD OF BUYING SERIES: 2013 Renter Survey SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
59 STUDENT LOAN DEBT AN ISSUE FOR 25% OF RENTERS SERIES: 2013 Renter Survey SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
60 STUDENT DEBT: DRAGS ON HOME SALES
61 HOMEOWNERSHIP RATE LOWER IN CA California Vs. U.S. SERIES: Homeownership Rates SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau
62 HOMEOWNERSHIP RATE BY AGE OF HOUSEHOLDER SOURCE: Census Bureau
63 MILLENNIAL HOMEOWNERSHIP FALLING SOURCE: Census Bureau
64 CALIFORNIA S HOUSING DELEMMA Even with everything (or at least most things) going right, our homeownership market is in trouble The rental market, even with the conversion of 500,000 SFH s, is still exhibiting inadequate supply
65 HOW TO MAKE IT MORE AFFORDABLE? ONE WORD: SUPPLY CA Housing Needs = Minimally 165,000 Units Annually Regulatory Problem Impact Fees Public Attitudes
66 CA PERMITS UP BUT MORE UNITS NEEDED 2013: 57,496 Units, Up 43.0% from 2012 Household Growth: 220, ,000/yr SERIES: New Housing Permits SOURCE: Construction Industry Research Board
67 REGIONAL HOUSING MARKETS
68 CONTRA COSTA COUNTY
69 SALES OF RESIDENTIAL HOMES Contra Costa County, September 2014: 1,061 Units Down 12.6% MTM, Down 4.9% YTY SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
70 MEDIAN PRICE OF RESIDENTIAL HOMES Contra Costa County, September 2014: $450,000 Down 7.6% MTM, Up 6.8% YTY SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
71 FOR SALE PROPERTIES Contra Costa County, September 2014: 3,627 Units Down 4.7% MTM, Down 3.2% YTY Note: For Sale Properties represents the overall supply that exist throughout the entire month, including any listings that appear as Active any point in time during the month. SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
72 MONTH S SUPPLY OF INVENTORY Contra Costa County, September 2014: 1.7 Months Note: Month s Supply of Inventory represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were For Sale on the last day of the month in question. The inventory figure is then divided by the number of properties that went Under Contract during the month. SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
73 CONCORD
74 SALES OF RESIDENTIAL HOMES Concord, September 2014: 104 Units Down 11.9% MTM, Down 17.5% YTY SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
75 MEDIAN PRICE OF RESIDENTIAL HOMES Concord, September 2014: $432,500 Down 2.6% MTM, Up 8.8% YTY SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
76 FOR SALE PROPERTIES Concord, September 2014: 394 Units Down 3.9% MTM, Up 4.8% YTY Note: For Sale Properties represents the overall supply that exist throughout the entire month, including any listings that appear as Active any point in time during the month. SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
77 MONTH S SUPPLY OF INVENTORY Concord, September 2014: 1.8 Months Note: Month s Supply of Inventory represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were For Sale on the last day of the month in question. The inventory figure is then divided by the number of properties that went Under Contract during the month. SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
78 WALNUT CREEK
79 SALES OF RESIDENTIAL HOMES Walnut Creek, September 2014: 126 Units Down 0.8% MTM, Down 3.8% YTY SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
80 MEDIAN PRICE OF RESIDENTIAL HOMES Walnut Creek, September 2014: $550,000 Down 9.8% MTM, Down 0.9% YTY SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
81 FOR SALE PROPERTIES Walnut Creek, September 2014: 358 Units Down 3.0% MTM, Up 14.0% YTY Note: For Sale Properties represents the overall supply that exist throughout the entire month, including any listings that appear as Active any point in time during the month. SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
82 MONTH S SUPPLY OF INVENTORY Walnut Creek, September 2014: 1.5 Months Note: Month s Supply of Inventory represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were For Sale on the last day of the month in question. The inventory figure is then divided by the number of properties that went Under Contract during the month. SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
83 DANVILLE
84 SALES OF RESIDENTIAL HOMES Danville, September 2014: 70 Units Down 23.9% MTM, Up 9.4% YTY SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
85 MEDIAN PRICE OF RESIDENTIAL HOMES Danville, September 2014: $1,011,500 Down 3.7% MTM, Up 8.2% YTY SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
86 FOR SALE PROPERTIES Danville, September 2014: 196 Units Down 6.7% MTM, Down 8.8% YTY Note: For Sale Properties represents the overall supply that exist throughout the entire month, including any listings that appear as Active any point in time during the month. SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
87 MONTH S SUPPLY OF INVENTORY Danville, September 2014: 1.6 Months Note: Month s Supply of Inventory represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were For Sale on the last day of the month in question. The inventory figure is then divided by the number of properties that went Under Contract during the month. SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
88 RICHMOND
89 SALES OF RESIDENTIAL HOMES Richmond, September 2014: 61 Units Down 32.2% MTM, Down 12.9% YTY SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
90 MEDIAN PRICE OF RESIDENTIAL HOMES Richmond, September 2014: $360,000 Up 12.5% MTM, Up 30.4% YTY SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
91 FOR SALE PROPERTIES Richmond, September 2014: 266 Units Down 4.7% MTM, Down 11.9% YTY Note: For Sale Properties represents the overall supply that exist throughout the entire month, including any listings that appear as Active any point in time during the month. SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
92 MONTH S SUPPLY OF INVENTORY Richmond, September 2014: 1.7 Months Note: Month s Supply of Inventory represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were For Sale on the last day of the month in question. The inventory figure is then divided by the number of properties that went Under Contract during the month. SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
93 2015 FORECAST
94 CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET FORECAST P 2015 F SFH Resales (000s) % Change 1.4% 4.1% 5.8% 8.2% 5.8% Median Price ($000s) $286.0 $319.3 $407.2 $455.0 $478.7 % Change 6.2% 11.6% 27.5% 11.8% 5.2% Housing Affordability Index 53% 51% 36% 30% 27% 30 Yr FRM 4.5% 3.7% 4.0% 4.3% 4.5% SERIES: CA Housing Market Outlook SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
95 CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK Sales Down for 2014 but will Improve in 2015; Price Gains Slowing Units (Thousand) Price (Thousand) SERIES: CA Housing Market Outlook SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
96 CA: DOLLAR VOLUME UP FOR 4 TH YEAR Up 2.7% in 2014, Up 11.3% in 2015 $ in Billion % Change 60% SERIES: CA Housing Market Outlook SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
97 REAL ESTATE IS CONSIDERED THE BEST LONG TERM INVESTMENT SOURCE: Gallup
98 Make no mistake about it, the way that workingclass people build wealth is through homeownership, not the stock market, not their 401(k) and not a pension. John Taylor, President of the National Community Reinvestment Coalition,
99 ATTITUDE TOWARD THE HOME BUYING PROCESS MIXED RESULTS SOURCE: How would you describe your attitude towards the home buying process? C.A.R Millennial Survey
100 MOST MILLENNIALS UNCERTAIN/DOUBTFUL THAT THEY COULD OBTAIN A MORTGAGE NOW?AMILLENNIAL ETHNICITY SOURCE: C.A.R Millennial Survey Q: Could you obtain a mortgage if you applied now?
101 PEOPLE WOULD PREFER THE FOLLOWING OVER GOING THROUGH THE HOME MORTGAGE PROCESS AGAIN: SOURCE: Guaranteed Rate Mortgage Survey of 1,000 adults 25 and older USA Today April 2014
102 C.A.R. Strategic Planning Books
103 THANK YOU!
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