Economic Outlook in Uncertain Times

Transcription

1 Economic Outlook in Uncertain Times Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Chief Economist NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Presentation to Silicon Valley Association of REALTORS October 11, 2010

2 Federal Reserve FOMC Ben Bernanke (Chairman): Outlook remains unusually uncertain Alan Greenspan (former Chairman): If home prices start falling again, we could be facing a double dip dip recession James Bullard (St. Louis Fed) (St. Louis Fed): The U.S. is closer to a Japanese style style deflationary outcome Thomas Hoenig (Kansas City Fed) (Kansas City Fed): Too rapid money creation results in eventual high inflation To speak at NAR conference in New Orleans

3 GDP Growing, but Decelerating annualized % growth rate

4 Pending Contracts on Existing Homes Tax Credit Impact

5 California Existing Home Sales: Quarterly Change In thousands, annualized and seasonally adjusted Tax Credit Impact?

6 Metro Median Home Price $ thousand San Jose San Francisco Source: NAR

7 Case Shiller Home Price for San Francisco

8 Metro Median Home Price $ thousand Las Vegas Columbia 0 Source: NAR

9 Share of First Time Buyers

10 Corporate Profits and Business Spending $ billion

11 U.S. Private Sector Job Gains (763,000 from Jan. to Aug. 2010) Month to to month job gains in thousands

12 In thousands Total Payroll Jobs in San Jose Sunnyvale Sunnyvale Santa Santa Clara Source: BLS

13 Total Payroll Jobs in Michigan 5000 In thousands Source: BLS

14 Total Payroll Jobs in Washington D.C. Metro 2600 In thousands Source: BLS)

15 In thousands Total Payroll Jobs Long Way to Go Before Full Recovery Source: BLS

16 Weekly 1 st time Unemployment Claims: Need to Fall Further In thousands

17 Still High Months Supply of Existing Home Inventory Post Tax Credit

18 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Number of Distressed Loans Mortgage Payments Past Due Days Mortgage Payments Past Due 90+ Days Mortgage Foreclosures Started Mortgage Foreclosure Inventory Thousands 2006/Q1 2006/Q2 2006/Q3 2006/Q4 2007/Q1 2007/Q2 2007/Q3 2007/Q4 2008/Q1 2008/Q2 2008/Q3 2008/Q4 2009/Q1 2009/Q2 2009/Q3 2009/Q4

19 U.S. Housing Starts

20 Newly Built Homes on the Market

21 Depressed Housing Starts in Bay Area MSA (S.F., San Jose, Oakland, Fremont) In thousands 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0

22 10 Year Treasury impacted by Inflationary Expectations

23 Inflationary Pressure? Indicator % change from one year ago Consumer Price Index 1.2% Producer Price Index (Finished Product) Producer Price Index (Intermediate Product) Producer Price Index (Crude Product) 3.0% 5.0% 18.2% Dow Jones Commodity Spot Price Index 21.1% Gold Price Record High Price

24 Baseline Outlook Moderate GDP Expansion 2 to 2.5% in the next 2 years (historical average is 3%) 1 to 1.5 million annual job additions in the next 2 years Unemployment rate of 8% in 2012 and normal 6% in 2015

25 Baseline Outlook Cont. Mortgage Rates rising to 5.7% in 2011 and 6.2% in 2012 and higher in later years Home values no meaningful change in the national price in the next 2 years Housing Starts to rise 40% to 50% in 2011 to about 900,000 from exceptionally low levels of the past two years (historical normal l is 1.5 million) Home sales will struggle in the near term (after tax credit hangover) and then rise in line with job growth

26 Alternative Outlooks High inflation people desire tangible investment like real estate, but interest rate will be higher Deflation people hold back for better price holds back economy Budget deficit tipping point higher interest rate and sharp cut back in standard of living Sharp 4% to 5% GDP growth release of pent up housing demand (30 million more people today versus 2000 when home sales were similar) surprisingly higher home sales and home prices

27 Homeownership Matters Campaign

28 Housing Market Bubble and Collapse Unprecedented Boom and Bust: 2000 to 2010 Sales Boomed and Retreated Prices Overshot and Corrected Fundamental Back to Justifiable Levels Why? Not Long standing Housing Policy but from Credit Market Bubble

29 Existing Home Sales In million units 29

30 Home Sale to Jobs 30

31 National Median Home Price 250, , , ,000 50,000 0 Source: NAR

32 Home Price to Income Ratio Stay within Budget and all will be OK! Source: NAR

33 Mortgage Credit Market Share Traditional Subprime and Alt-A Home Equity Source: NAR

34 Subprime/Alt A/Home A/Home Equity Mortgage Credit Dollars 1,600 1,400 $ billion 1,200 1, Source: NAR estimate based on Inside Mortgage Finance data

35 Long Term Path to Self Reliance may be Helped from Long Term Housing Wealth Gains 2007 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 Median Family Net Worth $150, $100,000 $50,000 $ Renter Homeowner Source: Federal Reserve, NAR estimate for 2010

36 Housing Policy Mortgage Interest Deduction FHA Self financing without ever needing taxpayer funds (as of yet) GSE Made mistakes and need to be restructured Affordable Housing Goals Need to assure successful outcome not numbers of homeowners initially helped