The State of the U.S. & Washington CRE Market: 2008 Review/2009 Outlook
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1 The State of the U.S. & Washington CRE Market: 2008 Review/2009 Outlook Copyright 2008 CoStar Group, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Although CoStar makes efforts to ensure the accuracy and reliability of the information contained herein, the following information includes projections that are based on various assumptions by CoStar concerning future events and circumstances, as well as historical and current data maintained in CoStar s database. Actual results may vary from the projections presented. The information in this presentation is provided as is and CoStar expressly disclaims any guarantees, representations or warranties of any kind, including those of merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose. 2 Bethesda Metro Center Bethesda, MD USA (800) NASDAQ: CSGP
2 CoStar is The Leading Commercial Real Estate Information Provider We built and maintain the industry s most comprehensive commercial property database Two decades of experience Over 90,000 clients worldwide Publicly traded (CSGP) Operations; U.S., U.K., France $120 million annual research budget $1 Billion Spent on Research
3 Nearly 1,000 Researchers & Support Staff
4 2008: 3 Million Miles driven
5 We Inspected 600,000 Properties in 350 Cities in 3 Countries in 2008
6 2008 Research Activity 275,000+ Industry players interviewed 2 million+ telephone interviews conducted to verify and collect information 3 million Information s submitted to CoStar 87,000 SEC filings, CMBS filings, press releases reviewed and abstracted most same night 2.2 Billion web searches run
7 Largest Most Comprehensive Commercial Real Estate Information Source Ever Compiled 3.2 Million Properties 64.7 billion sq. ft. of commercial inventory 8.7 billion sq ft available 1,167,000 listings More than a trillion dollars in listing value 7.4 million images $3 trillion in sales comparables 5.8 million tenants
8 General Economy
9 The Five Stages of Grief Denial Anger Bargaining Depression Acceptance
10 S&P 500 Down 54% From High
11 Annualized Change in Gross Domestic Product
12 Inflation Adjusted Case-Shiller 10-City Composite Index
13 Housing Values Inflation Adjusted
14 Japan Housing Bubble Jan-87 Jan-90 Jan-93 Jan-96 Jan-99 Jan-02 Jan-05 Jan-08
15 Case-Shiller 10-City Composite Index vs. Indexed Retail Prices per Sq Ft
16 Case-Shiller 10-City Composite Index Vs. Indexed Flex & Industrial Prices per Sq Ft
17 Case-Shiller 10-City Composite Index Vs. Indexed A, B, C Office Rents per Sq Ft
18 Total Employment Growth Actual & Forecast
19 Worst Job Loss Periods in U.S. History Length and Severity By Number of Jobs
20 Worst Job Loss Periods in U.S. History Length and Severity By % of Workforce
21 VIX Index All Time High Risk Aversion
22 Corporate Borrowing Source: Wall Street Journal
23 10 Year Fixed Conduit Spreads
24 CMBS Issuances Market Frozen
25 Disposable Personal Income
26 Retail Sales Historically
27 Non-Store Retail Sales
28 Consumer Confidence
29 Holiday Spending (Nov-Dec) as % of Total Annual Spending
30 Federal Reserve s Industrial Production Index
31 Total Retail Net Absorption and Change in Total Retail Employment
32 Industrial Net Absorption and Federal Reserve s Industrial Production Index
33 Office Employment Growth And Office Net Absorption Top 10 Markets
34 2008 Leasing Market Review
35 Office Deliveries by Year 1,216 Million 27% 281 Million 4% 78 Million 1%
36 Industrial Deliveries by Year 144 Million Years % 400 Million Years % 479 Million Years % 461 Million Years % 14 Million Year %
37 Retail Deliveries by Year 386 Million 5% 6 Years 460 Million 6% 15 Years
38 Retail Deliveries by Year & Forecast
39 Under Construction - Industrial
40 Office Deliveries by Year & Forecast
41 Frozen Projects
42 Frozen Projects
43 U.S. Retail Leasing Activity
44 U.S. Industrial Leasing Activity
45 U.S. Office Leasing Activity
46 Office Leasing Activity Washington, Atlanta, Dallas
47 Net Absorption - Retail
48 Net Absorption - Industrial
49 Net Absorption Office
50 Retail - Vacancy Rates 2000 to Current
51 Industrial Vacancy Rates 2000 to Current
52 Office - Vacancy Rates 2000 to Current
53 U.S. Office Vacancy Rates Since 1980
54 Average Days Retail Space is Vacant Prior To Lease Sign
55 Average Days Industrial Space is Vacant Prior To Lease Sign
56 Average Days Office Space is Vacant Prior To Lease Sign
57 U.S. Quoted Retail Rents Real & Nominal
58 Industrial Quoted Rents Inflation Adjusted vs. Not
59 Office - Inflation Adjusted Quoted Rents
60 The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable. John Kenneth Galbraith, economist ( )
61 U.S. Retail Vacancy Forecast
62 U.S. Industrial Vacancy Forecast
63 U.S. Office Vacancy Forecast
64 Sales Market Current Conditions
65 Cap Rates All Property Types (4 Quarter Moving Average)
66 Overall Retail Sales Volume
67 Overall Industrial Sales Volume
68 Historical Office Sales Volume
69 Average Days on Market Before Retail Property Sells
70 Average Days on Market Before U.S. Industrial Property Sells
71 Average Days on Market Before Office Property Sells
72 Retail Sales Prices / Square Foot
73 Inflation Adjusted Freestanding Retail Sales Prices / Square Foot
74 Inflation Adjusted Shopping Center Prices Per Square Foot
75 Inflation Adjusted U.S. Industrial Sales Prices Per Square Foot
76 Inflation Adjusted U.S. Flex Sales Prices Per Square Foot
77 Inflation Adjusted U.S. Class C Office Sales Prices Per Square Foot
78 Inflation Adjusted U.S. Class B Office Sales Prices Per Square Foot
79 Inflation Adjusted U.S. Class A Office Sales Prices Per Square Foot
80 CMBS Loans Placed in Special Servicing
81 Potential Problem Loans
82 Washington Metro Market 2008 Review & 2009 Outlook
83 Case-Shiller 10-City Index
84 Washington Job Diversification
85 Washington Job Diversification
86 Office, Industrial and Retail Commercial Real Estate Inventory Washington United States
87 Unemployment Rates
88 Washington Non-Farm Employment Growth
89 Washington Non-Farm Employment Growth Past 12 Months Thousands of Jobs (10) (20) (30) (40) (50) (60) (70) 2008-Jan 2008-Feb 2008-Mar 2008-Apr 2008-May 2008-Jun 2008-Jul 2008-Aug 2008-Sep 2008-Oct 2008-Nov 2008-Dec
90 Washington Retail Deliveries
91 Washington Industrial Deliveries
92 Washington Office Deliveries 81 Million % Years
93 U.S. Office Inventories Year 2000
94 U.S. Office Inventories Year 2009
95 Vacancy Rates in Washington s 20 Largest Office Submarkets
96 Washington Retail Leasing Activity
97 Washington Industrial Leasing Activity
98 Washington Office Leasing Activity
99 Washington Retail Net Absorption
100 Washington Industrial Net Absorption
101 Washington Office Net Absorption
102 U.S. Office Net Absorption
103 Retail Vacancy Rates 2006 to Current
104 Industrial Vacancy Rates 2000 to Current
105 2008 Supply-Demand Balance in 20 Largest Office Submarkets Increasing Vacancy Decreasing Vacancy
106 U.S. Vacancy Rates Year 2008
107 U.S. Office Vacancy Rates Year 2000
108 Office Vacancy Rates 2000 to Current
109 Washington Office Vacancy Forecast
110 Office Inflation Adjusted Quoted Rents
111 Washington Office Cap Rates
112 Washington Office Sales Prices Per Square Foot
113 Washington Office Sales Volume - Dollars Billions of Dollars q q q q q q q q q q q q q
114 Inflation Adjusted Case Shiller & Washington Retail Prices
115 Inflation Adjusted Case Shiller & Washington Industrial Prices
116 Inflation Adjusted Case Shiller & Washington Office Prices
117 Index of Vacancy Adjusted Rents & Sales Prices (Both Inflation Adjusted)
118 Washington Metro Recession Bordering on Depression
119 Washington Metro 30 Years of Stellar Growth
120 A Infinitesimal Percentage of U.S. Buildings are Green 1 in 15,000 U.S. Commercial Properties are Green Green 0.006% Not Green %
121 Direct Rental Rates National
122 Avoiding Tarnished Legacy? In 1966, Henry Ford II famously argued that implementation of federal safety requirements for automobiles (including lap and shoulder seat belts) would force his eponymous company to close down.
123 Thank you to our Clients & Staff
124
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