Changing Economic Times. Market Pulse. Dr. Gary Jackson Director, Regional Economic Research Institute Florida Gulf Coast University April 8, 2008

Transcription

1 Changing Economic Times Presented to: Market Pulse Bonita Springs Area Chamber of Commerce Bonita Springs-Estero Association of REALTORS, Inc. Dr. Gary Jackson Director, Regional Economic Research Institute Florida Gulf Coast University April 8, 2008

2 Outline for Presentation National Economic Trends FED Economic Forecasts for 2008 through 2010 Local Economic Trends

3 National Economic Trends Real GDP (Output measure) Employment Unemployment Initial Unemployment Claims Consumer Prices Consumer Confidence Retail Sales S & P 500 Stock Index Industrial Production Light-Weight Vehicle Sales Housing Starts Mortgage Rates Crude Oil Prices Gasoline Prices

4 01 Recession 91 Recession 4 th Qtr 0.6 4

5 Jan -17,000 Feb -63, Recession 01 Recession

6 Source: BLS 7.5 U.S. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 01 Recession Recession Av. 06 Jan 07 Feb 07 Mar 07 Apr 07 May 07 Jun 07 Jul 07 Aug 07 Sep 07 Oct 07 Nov 07 Dec 07 Jan 07 Feb 07 Av. 90 Av. 91 Av. 92 Av. 93 Av. 94 Av. 95 Av. 96 Av. 97 Av. 98 Av. 99 Av. 00 Av. 01 Av. 02 Av. 03 Av. 04 Av. 05

7 400,000 U.S. Weekly Unemployment Claims Initial Claims, SA 380, , , , , ,000 2/24/ 3/31/ 5/5/ 6/9/ 7/14/ 8/18/ 9/22/ 10/27/ 12/1/ 1/5/2008 2/9/2008 Source: US Department of Labor

8 3/4/2008 Florida Weekly Unemployment Claims Initial Claims, SA 21,000 19,000 17,000 15,000 13,000 9,000 11,000 7,000 5,000 3/10/ 4/9/ 5/9/ 6/8/ 7/8/ 8/7/ 9/6/ 10/6/ 11/5/ 12/5/ 1/4/2008 2/3/2008 Source: US Department of Labor

9 Feb 4.1%

10 Consumer Confidence Index Source:Conference Board, Mar 08 Jan 06 Feb 06 Mar 06 Apr 06 May 06 Jun 06 Jul 06 Aug 06 Sept 06 Oct 06 Nov 06 Dec 06 Jan 07 Feb 07 Mar 07 Apr 07 May 07 Jun 07 Jul 07 Index 1985=100 Aug 07 Sep 07 Oct 07 Nov 07 Dec 07 Jan 08 Feb 08

11 Jan Feb - 0.6

12 Feb 1,354.9

13 Feb Recession 01 Recession

14 Feb 15.38

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16 Interest Rate Conventional 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Rates Jan 00 Jan 01 Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Month and Year 5.85% for Mar 27th weekly survey Jan 07 Jan 08 Source: Freddie Mac

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19 Federal Reserve System Economic Forecast Real GDP Unemployment Rate Consumer Prices Total Inflation Core Inflation

20 Growth of Real GDP Percent % 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 2.9% % 2.5% % % % 1.8% 1.3% 1.0% Year Source:FED,

21 Unemployment Rate Percent Year Source:FED,

22 PCE Inflation Percent Year 1.5 Source:FED,

23 Core PCE Inflation Percent Year Source:FED,

24 Important Factors For the Economy Oil Shock/Middle East War? Weather (Hurricane?) Inflationary Expectations Productivity Wealth Effects (Housing/Stock Market) Global Economy (Increased demand for oil, raw materials, and increased trade)

25 Southwest Florida Trends Population Employment Unemployment Airport Passengers Taxable Sales Single Family Permits Median Housing Price and Existing Sales

26 Florida EDR: February 2008.

27 1200 Long-Run Population Growth Projections July, Lee and Collier- Thousands , actual Collier Lee Source: Florida EDR: Demographic Estimating conference Database, Updated July.

28 290, , , , , , , , ,000 Source: BLS LEE COUNTY EMPLOYMENT 285, , , , , , , , , ,271 (P) Jun 07 Jul 07 Aug 07 Sept 07 Oct 07 Nov 07 Dec 07 Jan 08 Jan 06 Feb 06 Mar 06 Apr 06 May 06 Jun 06 Jul 06 Aug 06 Sept 06 Oct 06 Nov 06 Dec 06 Jan 07 Feb 07 Mar 07 Apr 07 May 07

29 156, , , , , , , , ,000 Source: BLS COLLIER COUNTY EMPLOYMENT 155, , , , , , , , , ,839 (P) Sept 06 Oct 06 Nov 06 Dec 06 Jan 07 Feb 07 Mar 07 Apr 07 May 07 Jun 07 Jul 07 Aug 07 Sept 07 Oct 07 Nov 07 Dec 07 Jan 08 Jan 06 Feb 06 Mar 06 Apr 06 May 06 Jun 06 Jul 06 Aug 06

30 Unemployment Rates SWFL Coastal County Unemployment Rates (%) Monthly Averages; Most Recent 12 Months Data Charlotte Collier Lee 6.5% 6.1% 4.8% Mar 07 Apr 07 May 07 Jun 07 Jul 07 Aug 07 Sep 07 Oct 07 Nov 07 Dec 07 Jan 08. Feb 08 Source: Florida AWI

31 Airport Passenger Travel Trends 1200 RSW (SW Florida International) Airport Passenger Traffic Trend Thousands Arrivals plus Departures Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Local Airport Authorities

32 Monthly Taxable Sales 2000 to Monthly Averages; Average of Most Recent 12 Months 1,200 Charlotte / Collier / Lee - Million 1, Collier Lee Avg Dec06 to Nov07 Monthly Averages for Each Year to 2006 Source: Florida Department of Tax Research

33 Source: Florida Department of Tax Research Taxable Sales by Month Dec-06 Jan-07 Feb-07 Charlotte / Collier / Lee - Million Mar-07 Apr-07 May-07 Jun-07 Jul-07 Aug-07 Sep-07 Oct-07 Nov-07 Collier Lee

34 1600 Single Family Permits Issued Lee County Single Family Permits Issued - Lee County Monthly Averages for Each Year; Most Recent 12 Months Data Permits Issued Av 2002 Av 2004 Av 2006 Av Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb 2008 Source: Local Building and Zoning Departments, included Fort Myers, Cape Coral, and unincorporated Lee County permits

35 Single Family Permits Issued Collier County Single Family Permits Issued - Collier County Monthly Averages; Most Recent 12 Months Data Permits Issued Av 2002 Av 2004 Av 2006 Av Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb 2008 Source: Local Building and Zoning Departments; includes unincorporated Collier County permits only.

36 Lee County Existing Single Family Sales by REALTORS Bar Chart, Scale on the Left Median Housing Price Line Chart, Scale on the Right Lee County Existing Single Family Home Sales by Realtors 1200 $ $300 $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 0 $0 Feb 2006 Mar 2006 Apr 2006 May 2006 Jun 2006 Jul 2006 Aug 2006 Sep 2006 Oct 2006 Nov 2006 Dec 2006 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2008 Homes Sold by Realtors Median Sale Price - Thousands Lee Homes Sold by Realtors Lee Median Sale Price Source: Florida Association of REALTORS, August 05 price estimated,

37 Collier County Existing Single Family Sales by REALTORS Bar Chart, Scale on the Left Median Housing Price Line Chart, Scale on the Right Collier County Existing Single Family Home Sales by Realtors 250 $700 Homes Sold by Realtors Collier Homes Sold by Realtors Collier Median Sale Price $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 Median Sale Price - Thousands 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2008 $0 Source: Naples Area Board of Realtors (NABOR),

38 Summary Negative growth or very slow growth the first half to 2008; Continued growth but at a slower pace during the second half of 2008 and 2009 with more normal growth in 2010; Unemployment rates at higher levels during the first half of 2008; Risk of shocks to the economy; Inflation is above the rate desired and is a a concern; Housing recover is not expected until 2009.