2013 San Diego Economic Outlook. 29 th Annual Economic Roundtable Marney Cox Chief Economist San Diego Association of Governments January 25, 2013
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1 213 San Diego Economic Outlook 29 th Annual Economic Roundtable Marney Cox Chief Economist San Diego Association of Governments January 25, 213
2 US The Problem Slow Economic Growth Gross Domestic Product Potential GDP Trillion$ Annual Gap Actual GDP
3 US Solutions Fiscal & Monetary Policy Federal Government Revenue & Expenditures Expenditures $1.1 Trillion Deficit Excess Bank Reserves Loanable Funds $1.5 Trillion 1 Yr. Treasury & FF Rate FF Rate 1 Year T- Rate Revenues
4 US Results Below Trend Performance Jobs Gap-Trend VS Actual Expansion 132% Begins July 29 Debt / Income Ratio 66% - 8% - 7.1M Jobs Income Gap-Trend VS Actual Expansion Begins July 29 5% - 3% -9.% 1% 4 Months 4 Months
5 Then It s the Economy, Stupid Now It s the Labor Market
6 US Employment-Population Ratio 42% of Adult Population not Employed 4 ppt Drop
7 Labor Force Challenges STRUCTURAL-skill mismatches INCENTIVES-social program expansions
8 Outlook for San Diego
9 SD Payroll Jobs Change Y-O-Y by Quarter , 6, 4, 2, -2, -4, -6, -8, -1,
10 SD 211 Jobs Actual vs Estimate (EDD Non-Agricultural Employment) 25, 2, 15, 1, 211 Est 211 Act 5, -5, Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
11 SD Job Change Industries -4, -2, 2, 4, -31,8-9,7-23,3-7,3-13,5-11,7-4,9-1,2 6, 19,6
12 Monthly Unemployment Rates November 211 to 212 (YOY) 14.% 12.% San Diego 9.4% to 8.3% California (SA) 11.3% to 9.8% United States (SA) 8.7% to 7.7% 1.% 8.% 6.% 4.% 2.%.%
13 SD Per Capita Income Real 211$, % Growth over 31 years $5, $45, $4, $35, $3, $25, $2, $15, $1, $5, $
14 SD Venture Capital Funds Resources for High Tech Jobs, M$ per Year $2,5 $2, $1,5 $1, 23Q12 $5 $ ' '2 '4 '6 '8 1 12
15 SD Housing Permits & Prices
16 US Housing Starts-Gaining Mo SF Starts MF Starts
17 SD Taxable Sales
18 Trade with Mexico thru Otay Mesa $35, $3, Trade Value M$ $25, $2, $15, $1, $5, $
19 SD Population Growth-Slow & Changing Annual Change Population, Dom & Intl Migration, Employment , 7, 5, 3, 1, -1, -3, -5, -7, ' '5 1 Population Domestic Migration International Migration Employment
20 213 Outlook Summary Slow Growth, Below Trend Problem is speed not direction San Diego Job Growth 1%; U-rate 7.5% Home Price +5%; Trade with Mexico +6% Military cutbacks threaten SD
21 213 San Diego Economic Outlook 29 th Annual Economic Roundtable Marney Cox Chief Economist San Diego Association of Governments January 25, 213
22 A Housing Overview Presented by Russ Valone MarketPointe Realty Advisors
23 8 New Home Sales Trends in San Diego and Throughout the Southland Resemble a Scary Black Diamond Ski Run Socal San Diego
24 Strong Population Growth Coupled With Low Housing Production Levels Potentially Signals Development of Future Housing Shortage in San Diego 5, Population Increase Per Housing Unit 12 45, 4, 41,18 Population Growth Building Permits , 3, 25, 2, 15, 35,45 15,592 15,45 36,96 13,684 26,487 18,31 15,59 13,8 14,36 21,985 34, , , ,497 27, , 5, ,79 9, ,464 5,242 5,37 2,946 3,
25 Tougher Economic Times Have Increased the Percentage of Echo Boomers Living at Home With Their Parents; Statewide They Total 2.8 Million, of Which 258,143 Live in San Diego County 3, 12.8% 12.8% 12.8% 12.9% 14.% 25, 2, 1.6% 1.6% 11.% 1.3% 11.% 1.9% 11.7% 5, % 51,163 55,685 59,379 6,753 62, % 1.% 15, 45,642 45,523 48,51 45,61 48,142 45,478 8.% 6.% 1, 17, ,49 186, ,28 196,15 195,784 4.% 138,17 132, ,73 13,271 13, ,526 5, 2.% SD Pop Living at Home SD Pop Living at Home % SD Living at Home.%
26 Much of the Multi Family Construction is Apartments San Diego 2, 18,31 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, 15,592 15,45 13,684 6,35 6,28 4,84 9,287 9,377 8,88 8,273 9,758 15,59 6,582 9,8 14,36 6,73 7,576 9,191 4,448 4,743 7,464 4,2 3,444 5,242 5,37 5,349 3,63 2,946 1,168 3,523 1,253 TOTAL Multi-Family Single-Family 3,125 3,379 2,179 1,778 2,27 2,245 1, Permits are Through November
27 Easier Financing and Strong Demand Result Surge of New Rentals in County 14, 12, 3,317 1,967 2,928 2,793 4,22 1,469 2, ,451 1,18 1,499 1, ,98 1, 8, 6, 19, ,42 115, , ,78 114,416 19, , ,83 115, , , ,36 123,47 123,172 4, 2, Existing New Rentals Total Rentals
28 18 Competition Levels in San Diego are Down 78% From Peak in 26, While SoCal Levels Are Down 72% Socal San Diego /1 26/2 26/3 26/4 27/1 27/2 27/3 27/4 28/1 28/2 28/3 28/4 29/1 29/2 29/3 29/4 21/1 21/2 21/3 21/4 211/1 211/2 211/3 211/4 212/1 212/2 212/3 212/4
29 Months of Available Inventory in Actively Selling Projects Becoming Dangerously Low SoCal SAN DIEGO Months of Supply Socal 14 4 San Diego /3 26/4 27/1 27/2 27/3 27/4 28/1 28/2 28/3 28/4 29/1 29/2 29/3 29/4 21/1 21/2 21/3 21/4 211/1 211/2 211/3 211/4 212/1 212/2 212/3 212/4
30 Much of the Attached Shadow Inventory Has Been Converted to Rentals Los Angeles San Diego 3,5 3, 2,5 3,152 3,5 3, 2,5 3,471 2, 1,5 1, , , 1,5 1, ,812 1,15 DETACHED CONVERSION MEDIUM DENSITY ATTACHED HIGH DENSITY CONDOMINIUMS DETACHED CONVERSION MEDIUM DENSITY ATTACHED HIGH DENSITY CONDOMINIUMS Ventura Orange DETACHED CONVERSION MEDIUM DENSITY ATTACHED HIGH DENSITY CONDOMINIUMS DETACHED CONVERSION MEDIUM DENSITY ATTACHED HIGH DENSITY CONDOMINIUMS San Bernardino Riverside 6, 5, 5,13 12, 1, 11,656 4, 8, 3, 6, 2, 1, , 2, 267 2,721 DETACHED CONVERSION MEDIUM DENSITY ATTACHED HIGH DENSITY CONDOMINIUMS DETACHED CONVERSION MEDIUM DENSITY ATTACHED HIGH DENSITY CONDOMINIUMS
31 Resurgence of Detached Dominance of the San Diego New Home Market Should be Short Lived 1% % DETACHED ATTACHED 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 73% 74% 57% 38% 35% 31% 38% 55% 49% 67% 71% 69% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 27% 26% 43% 62% 65% 69% 62% 45% 51% 33% 29% 31% %
32 Less Than 25% of the County s 132,553 Proposed Units are Detached Detached, 31,511, 24% Affordable, 2,353, 2% Apartments, 11,22, 8% Conversions, 22,752, 17% Attached, 64,717, 49% Proposed Activity
33 Highway 78 Corridor is Home to the Most Proposed Detached Activity Proposed Detached Activity SOUTH COUNTY, 7,759, 25% EAST COUNTY, 5,459, 17% SAN DIEGO CENTRAL, 317, 1% NORTH COUNTY COASTAL, 3,416, 11% INTERSTATE 15 CORRIDOR, 1,874, 6% HIGHWAY 78 CORRIDOR, 12,686, 4%
34 San Diego Central is Home to the Most Proposed Attached Activity Proposed Detached Activity SOUTH COUNTY, 23,937, 24% EAST COUNTY, 4,443, 4% HIGHWAY 78 CORRIDOR, 12,959, 13% INTERSTATE 15 CORRIDOR, 1,997, 11% SAN DIEGO CENTRAL, 38,368, 38% NORTH COUNTY COASTAL, 1,338, 1%
35 From an Historical Low of Just 9,81 New Home Last Year, The Southern California Marketplace Saw a 43% Increase in New Home Sales in 212 Annual New Home Sales ,898 58,813 54,312 68, ,914 43,572 46, , ,491 16,29 11,26 9,81 14,
36 Orange & San Bernardino Realized Biggest Gains in , 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, 1,635 Los Angeles 2,777 2, % 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 VENTURA COUNTY 2,375 39% , 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, ORANGE COUNTY 74% 5,399 2,926 1, , 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, 27,67 RIVERSIDE COUNTY 39% 2,74 3, , 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, 15,492 SAN DIEGO COUNTY 35% 2,67 2, , 8, 6, 4, 2, 8,51 SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY 53% 916 1, Sales Through Q3
37 Southern California County s Market Share in 212 Virtually The Same as in 211 RIVERSIDE,,, % LOS ANGELES, 211 2,74, 28% 2,15, 22% VENTURA, 261, 3% SAN DIEGO, 2,59, 21% ORANGE, 1,678, 17% SAN BERNARDINO, 916, 9% RIVERSIDE,, 212, % 3,8, 27% LOS ANGELES, 2,777, 2% VENTURA, 364, 2% SAN DIEGO, 2,794, 2% SAN BERNARDINO, 1,43, 1% ORANGE, 2,926, 21%
38 A Strong Showing in Resale Market Activity at the End of 212 Pushed Resale Volumes up 8.8% Above Last Year 7, 6, 5, 52,759 57,852 48,456 5,794 56,43 4, 3, 2, 28,469 1,
39 A Strong Showing in Resale Market Activity at the End of 212 Pushed Resale Volumes up 8.8% Above Last Year 26,18 214,273 27, ,456 29,331 22,624 22, , , , , ,18 178,
40 While All Counties Posted Significant Gains in New Home Sales, in the Resale Sector Inland Counties Were Flat Los Angeles San Diego 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 57,848 74,95 7,555 68,645 76, % 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 3,477 36,115 33,671 33,47 37, % 3, 15, 2, 1, 1, 5, Ventura Orange 1, 9, 8, 7, 6, 7,874 8,77 8,12 9,38 9, % 35, 3, 25, 2, 24,488 29,592 28,587 27,369 32, % 5, 4, 15, 3, 1, 2, 5, 1, San Bernardino Riverside 35, 3, 25, 2, 22,353 33,836 29,54 27,129 27,99 -.1% 5, 45, 4, 35, 3, 35,365 45,48 39,344 37,54 36, % 15, 25, 2, 1, 15, 5, 1, 5,
41 San Diego Appears to be Working Through its Distressed Housing Stock at a Slightly Quicker Rate Than Other SoCal Counties 12, 1, 8, 6, Notices of Default Foreclosures 5,797 Foreclosures 2, 17,712 13,978 15, 13,32 1,169 1, 7,367 5,994 5, 1, , 2, 1,
42 Resale Prices Trending up in All Southern California Counties ATTACHED DETACHED $6, $56, Los Angeles $6, $538,813 San Diego $5, $4, $428,625 $46,25 $313,75 $335,25 $32,333 $334,583 $5, $4, $366,625 $43,167 $343,5 $369,167 $353,333 $368,833 $3, $2, $359,167 $33,83 $297,75 $272,667 $282, $3, $2, $255,813 $25,917 $218,75 $27,667 $227, $7, $682,5 Orange $4, $386,25 Riverside $6, $5, $4, $3, $2, $519,25 $471,167 $55,75 $48,583 $497,5 $441,813 $332,729 $281,917 $294,75 $272,917 $285, $3, $2, $1, $258,875 $299,75 $18,75 $236,833 $156,167 $195,417 $142,167 $189,917 $145,167 $23,917 $155, $7, $6, $5, $69,5 $398,625 $452,583 $393,83 $414,333 Ventura $394,286 $45,5 $4, $3, $343,875 $35,563 $22,496 San Bernardino $4, $3, $294,917 $248,83 $257,5 $235,643 $239,667 $2, $212,167 $142,5 $149,583 $148,667 $16,583 $2, $1, $129,417 $133,83 $125,25 $135,
43 San Diego Detached Resale Average up 18% From a Year Ago and Approaching $4, For the First Time Since August 28 $6, $5, $4, $399, $365, $36, $399, $3, $3, $333, $337, $2, $195, $22, $213, $25, $245, $1, $ ATTACHED DETACHED 28/1 28/3 28/5 28/7 28/9 28/11 29/1 29/3 29/5 29/7 29/9 29/11 21/1 21/3 21/5 21/7 21/9 21/11 211/1 211/3 211/5 211/7 211/9 211/11 212/1 212/3 212/5 212/7 212/9 212/11
44 New Detached Home Pricing Trends $6 $55 $5 $45 $4 $ ,741 $ $ ,639 $ $ $ ,649 2,63 $ ,577 2,52 2,623 2,557 $ $ ,5 Los Angeles $ , ,8 2,7 2,6 2,5 2,4 2,3 $9 $8 $7 $6 $5 2,8 $ $ $ ,31 3,6 $ $ ,799 3,25 San Diego 3,74 $ ,996 2,845 $ $ ,725 $ ,855 $ ,1 3, 2,9 2,8 2,7 2,6 $1,5 $1,3 $1,1 $9 $7 $5 2,755 $ $1, ,989 $1, ,83 $1, ,295 Orange $1, ,27 2,967 $1,.723 2,782 $ ,569 $87.54 $ $ ,483 2, ,5 3,3 3,1 2,9 2,7 2,5 2,3 $55 $5 $45 $4 $35 $3 $25 2,419 $3.891 $ $ ,557 2,413 2,644 2,664 $ $ San Bernardino 2,67 2,482 2,392 $ $ $ ,559 $ ,524 $ ,7 2,6 2,5 2,4 2,3 $1, $9 $8 $7 $6 $5 $4 2,99 2,99 2,955 $ ,919 2,928 2,842 2,869 $ ,969 $859.1 $ $7.19 2,661 $ Ventura $ $ $ ,454 $ ,1 2,9 2,7 2,5 2,3 $55 $ ,797 $5 $ ,743 $ $45 $ ,713 2,583 $4 2,683 $ ,488 $35 2,452 $ ,468 2,57 $3 Riverside 2,434 $ $ $ $ $ ,9 2,8 2,7 2,6 2,5 2,4 2,3
45 San Diego County New Home Pricing Trends $8 3,18 2,985 3,5 3, $ ,922 2,95 $7 $ ,9 $6 $ ,815 2,858 2,847 2,833 2,822 $ $ Detached $ $ $629.4 $ $6.17 2,745 2,721 2,729 $ $ ,72 $ ,76 2,85 2,8 2,75 2,7 2,65 $5 29/4 21/1 21/2 21/3 21/4 211/1 211/2 211/3 211/4 212/1 212/2 212/3 212/4 2,6
46 San Diego County New Attached Home Pricing Trends $6 $ $ ,545 1,52 1,6 $5 $ ,39 $ ,452 1,451 1,43 $ $ ,375 1,459 1,455 1,478 1,496 1,5 1,4 $ ,338 $ ,3 $4 1,199 $ $ ,2 Attached $ $ $ ,1 $3 29/4 21/1 21/2 21/3 21/4 211/1 211/2 211/3 211/4 212/1 212/2 212/3 212/4 1,
47 Countywide Rental Rate Averages Have Soared to New Highs $1, $1, $1,358 $1, $1, $1, $1,323 $1, $1,31 $1,314 $1, $1,3 28/Mar 28/Sep 29/Mar 29/Sep 21/Mar 21/Sep 211/Mar 211/Sep 212/Mar 212/Sep 8
48 Vacancy Rates 5.3% 4.4% 4.7% 4.2% 5.1% 4.5% 4.4% 4.5% 6.% 5.% 3.6% 4.% 3.% 2.2% 2.% 1.%.%
49 Vacancy Rates 1.8%.6% 1.5% 1.4% 2.6% 1.4% 4.% 2.1% 2.7% 2.5% 3.2% 2.2% 3.% 1.8% 4.5% 2.6% 3.6% 2.2% 5.3% 4.4% 4.7% 4.2% 5.1% 4.5% 4.4% 4.5% 2/Mar 2/Sep 21/Mar 21/Sep 22/Mar 22/Sep 23/Mar 23/Sep 24/Mar 24/Sep 25/Mar 25/Sep 26/Mar 26/Sep 27/Mar 27/Sep 28/Mar 28/Sep 29/Mar 29/Sep 21/Mar 21/Sep 211/Mar 211/Sep 212/Mar 212/Sep.% 1.% 2.% 3.% 4.% 5.% 6.%
50 Summary The housing recovery is here, but it depends on continued consumer confidence to be fully realized. Prices are rising making it possible to more people to get their heads above water. Foreclosures are down and having less impact on prices. New and resale supplies are constrained. 4,1 Resales and 2,2 New Home Inventory. New home prices are anticipated to see at least a modest spike as new publically homebuilder product hits the market. As the credit market eases for condominium construction fewer large scale apartment projects will be built as apartment buyers will not be able to compete with condo buyers for the scarce land resources.
51 San Diego s Job Base is Showing Significant Signs of Improving; After Losing 84,325 Jobs Between 28 and 21, San Diego s Generated Nearly 19, New Jobs in 212, However, Future Job Growth Will Hard Pressed to Match the Past 6, 55,6 5,5 51,183 4, 2, 21,75 18,883 7, , -4, -6, -8,
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