THE OUTLOOK FOR HOUSING IN ILLINOIS

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1 THE OUTLOOK FOR HOUSING IN ILLINOIS Jonathan Smoke Chief Economist January 25, 2017

2 NATIONAL TRENDS 2

3 Thousands JOB CREATION POSITIVE BUT WEAKER 229,000 jobs created by month in 2015; 180,000 average in 2016 Employment and Unemployment Nonfarm Employment Unemployment Rate 150, , , , , , , Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 3

4 VERY STRONG FALL RESALE MARKET Sales rate up to 5.61 million in November, highest since Feb 2007 Existing Home Sales and Prices EHS SAAR Med Exist Home Price 8,000,000 $300,000 7,000,000 $250,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 $200,000 4,000,000 $150,000 3,000,000 $100,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 $50,000 0 $0 Source: National Association of REALTORS Existing Home Sales Report 4

5 INVENTORY FALLING FASTER Inventory down 11% in November and December Listings and Median Age of Inventory Listings Median Age of Inventory 2,500, ,000, ,500, ,000, , Source: Realtor.com 5

6 SALES SHIFTING TOWARDS NEW Seasonally adjusted pace of sales flat y/y for pending, +17% new Home Sales (New Contracts) SAAR Pending Home Sales (Existing) New Home Sales ,600, ,400, ,200,000 1,000, , , , , Source: National Association of REALTORS, Commerce Department 6

7 INVENTORY REMAINS A CONSTRAINT 51 straight months of home supply below normal; now 4.0/5.1 mos Months' Supply of Homes for Sale Existing New Source: National Association of REALTORS, Commerce Department 7

8 RENT INCREASES HAVE SLOWED Asking rents down 1% y/y in Dec compared to list prices up 9% National Home Price and Rent Trends Median Existing List Price Median Asking Rent $2,000 $270,000 $250,000 $230,000 $1,900 $1,800 $1,700 $210,000 $1,600 $190,000 $1,500 $170,000 $1,400 $150,000 $1,300 Source: Realtor.com and Altos Research 8

9 Jan-71 Feb-72 Mar-73 Apr-74 May-75 Jun-76 Jul-77 Aug-78 Sep-79 Oct-80 Nov-81 Dec-82 Jan-84 Feb-85 Mar-86 Apr-87 May-88 Jun-89 Jul-90 Aug-91 Sep-92 Oct-93 Nov-94 Dec-95 Jan-97 Feb-98 Mar-99 Apr-00 May-01 Jun-02 Jul-03 Aug-04 Sep-05 Oct-06 Nov-07 Dec-08 Jan-10 Feb-11 Mar-12 Apr-13 May-14 Jun-15 Jul-16 AFFORDABILITY ON THE DECLINE 30-year conforming rate averaged 3.65% in 2016 Housing Affordability Index Composite (Left Axis) Average 30-Year Conforming Rate (Right Axis) Nov Dec Jun 3.57 Nov 3.77 Jul- Aug 3.44 Sep 3.46 Oct 3.47 Dec Source: Moody s Analytics, Freddie Mac, and National Association of REALTORS 9

10 CONFIDENCE AT 15 YEAR HIGH Plans to purchase a home also strong (3 mo ave 6.3%) Consumer Confidence and Plans to Purchase a Home Consumer Confidence Index Plans to Purchase % 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Source: The Conference Board, Moody s Analytics 10

11 LIFE DRIVES HOUSING DEMAND Everyone s tired of waiting and Millennials are building families Top 10 Buying Triggers all tired of current home favorable home prices change of family circumstance/composition 30% getting married/moving in with partner looking for a safer neighhorhood increase in family size relocated to a new city planning an increase to family size desire to live closer to good schools increase in income 26% 13% 33% 25% 13% 32% change of job/job location 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00% 35.00% Source: realtor.com Active Home Shopper Survey, September

12 CREDIT ACCESS IMPROVING Credit access up 7% year-over-year in December; up 5% since Sep 1000 Mortgage Credit Availability Index Mar-2012= % % 13% 25% 13% % 32% Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, Haver Analytics 12

13 IMPEDIMENTS TO PURCHASE Inventory is back on top; time and finances plague first-timers What's Getting in the Way of Making a Home Purchase? Repeat First-Time All Buyers Have not yet found a house that meets my needs Just starting to explore Cannot find a good house in my budget range 30% Haven't decided on a specific neighborhood/town Need to improve credit score 26% Lack enough funds for down payment Can't sell current home 13% Having difficulty qualifying for a mortgage Currently on a lease 33% Always overbid by other buyers 25% 13% 32% I owe more on my current home than it is worth 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00% 35.00% 40.00% 45.00% Source: Realtor.com Survey of Buyer Traffic, December

14 2017 FORECAST Key economic and housing metrics from NAR and realtor.com National Association of REALTORS Macro Forecast: GDP grows 2.2% (vs. 1.6% in 2016) Nonfarm payroll employment grows 1.3% (156k per mo) Unemployment declines to 4.7% realtor.com housing forecast: Existing home prices appreciate 3.9% (down from 4.9% in 2016) Existing home sales grow 2% to 5.46 million New home sales grow 10% to 620,000 Housing starts increase 3% to 1.20 million (SF up 5%) 30-year fixed conforming rate ends 2017 at 4.5% 14

15 LOCATION LOCATION LOCATION 15

16 LIST PRICE GROWTH Half of counties in Illinois seeing list appreciation Y/Y (Dec 2016) Source: Realtor.com 16

17 ACTIVE INVENTORY Single Family and Condo Active Listings (December 2016) Source: Realtor.com 17

18 HOTTEST COUNTIES (Q4 2016) Based on Supply and Demand Source: Realtor.com 18

19 HOTTEST ZIPS (Q4 2016) Based on Supply and Demand Source: Realtor.com 19

20 BIG DATA IN ILLINOIS Interest by age groups (H1 2016) Source: Realtor.com 20

21 AGE INTEREST IN HOTTEST ZIPS Interest by age groups (H1 2016) Source: Realtor.com 21

22 HOTTEST LISTINGS IN LAST 60 DAYS Top homes get times more views than state average 22

23 RENTS HIGHER IN MOST COUNTIES Rents up 5%+ Y/Y in 29% of counties Source: Realtor.com Analysis of HUD Fair Market Rents 23

24 RENT VS BUY Monthly costs favor buying in 90% of counties Source: Realtor.com Analysis of Nielsen Pop-Facts Demographics, HUD Fair Market Rents and Realtor.com Data 24

25 HOME OWNERSHIP STRONG IN STATE Overall home ownership rate in Illinois is 70% Source: Nielsen Demographics Pop-Facts

26 MILLENNIAL OWNERSHIP STRONG home ownership rate in Illinois is 50% Source: Nielsen Demographics Pop-Facts

27 HOUSEHOLD GROWTH Growth hot spots throughout the state Source: Nielsen Demographics Pop-Facts

28 Jonathan Smoke Chief Economist Access market data, research, and presentations at research.realtor.com 28

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