2013 Housing Market Forecast. SILVAR: Los Gatos/Saratoga District October 10, 2012 Leslie Appleton-Young, Vice President & Chief Economist
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1 2013 Housing Market Forecast SILVAR: Los Gatos/Saratoga District October 10, 2012 Leslie Appleton-Young, Vice President & Chief Economist
2
3 What we saw from the roof.. C.A.R. NAR
4 THE ECONOMY
5 Recent Housing Headlines Good News 1. NAR Aug 4.82M +9.3% YTY +7.8% MTM 2. US Aug new home sales: 372K, +25.3% YTY 3. Housing Prices on the rise 4. Mortgage rates at historic lows 5. Fed Initiates QE3 Buying $40B/month in MBS for as long as it takes 6. Bakersfield shows signs of boomtown again (LA Times )
6 Gross Domestic Product: Growth is Stalling 2011: 1.7%; 2012 Q1: 2.0% Q2: 1.3% ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE, CHAIN-TYPE (2005) $ ANNUAL QTRLY 2009 Largest Annual Drop since 1938 (-3.4%) SOURCE: US Dept of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
7 Unemployment: Cyclical & Structural Heading Down: At 3 year lows SOURCE: CA Employment Development Division
8 CA Added ~300k Jobs in Aug-11 to Aug- 12 Recession Job Losses: 1.3 million Since Jan 2010: + 485,000 SOURCE: CA Employment Development Division Month-to-Month Changes
9 Job Trends by California Metro Area Annual Percentage Change in Nonfarm Jobs July 2012: CA +2.6%, thousand Jobs Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division, LAEDC
10 Consumer Confidence Uneven But Things Are Getting Better September 2012: 70.3 INDEX, 100=1985 SOURCE: The Conference Board
11 CPI Subdued for Now August 2012: All Items +1.7% YTY; Core +1.9% YTY PERCENT CHANGE FROM A YEAR AGO SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
12 CA Negative - Equity Mortgages Negative Equity Share in CA Near Negative Equity Share in CA 29.0% 4.4% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q SOURCE: CoreLogic
13 California Borrowers: 29% Underwater 15.6% of CA mortgages over 125% LTV SOURCE: CoreLogic
14 US -- CA Prices Over-Shot Trend Line ( ) Snapping Back Slowly SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
15 Mortgage Rates at 50 Year Lows But Credit is Tight: Defensive Lending SOURCE: Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation
16 CA Housing Affordability at Record Highs but Still Trails U.S. % OF HOUSEHOLDS THAT CAN BUY SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
17 Average Credit Score Increased 26 points since 2005 For Purchase Loans SOURCE: CoreLogic *2012 through Feb
18 Fannie & Freddie are the Market Source: LPS CoreLogic
19 U.S. Economic Outlook Indicator p 2013f US GDP 0.30% 3.50% 3.00% 1.70% 2.00% 2.30% Nonfarm Job Growth 0.60% 4.40% 0.70% 1.20% 1.40% 1.60% Unemployment 5.80% 9.30% 9.60% 9.00% 8.20% 8.00% CPI 3.80% 0.40% 1.60% 3.20% 2.00% 2.10% Real Disposable Income, % Change 0.50% 0.90% 1.80% 1.30% 1.60% 1.60%
20 California Economic Outlook Indicator p 2013f Nonfarm Job Growth 1.3% 6.0% 1.1% 0.9% 1.6% 1.6% Unemployment Rate 7.2% 11.3% 12.4% 11.7% 10.7% 9.9% Population Growth 0.8% 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% 0.8% 0.9% Real Disposable Income, % Change 1.0% 3.1% 1.8% 1.5% 0.3% 1.0%
21 THE CALIFORNIA RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE MARKET
22 C.A.R. Membership Off 50,000+ From Peak THOUSANDS Home Sales Membership 250, , , , , , , , , ,000 50, ,
23 Dollar Volume of Sales Slowly Improving Up 16.5% in 2012, Up 7.0% in 2013 $ in Billion % Change -54% SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
24 Sales of Existing Detached Homes California, August 2012 Sales: 511,240 Units, Up 6.5% YTD, Up 2.3% YTY SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS *Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized
25 Share of Distressed Sales to Total Sales SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
26 Share of Equity Sales Has Been Trending Upward Since Early 2012 SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
27 Median Price of Existing Detached Homes California, August 2012: $343,820, Up 15.5% YTY SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
28 Unsold Inventory: Nearing Record Lows California, August 2012: 3.2 Months Note: Unsold Inventory Index represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were Active, Pending, and Contingent (when available) and divide the sum by the number of Sold properties for the month in question. SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
29 Unsold Inventory: Shortage Across All Price Ranges Price Range (Thousand) Aug-11 Jul-12 Aug-12 $1,000K $ K $ K $ K $0-300K Note: Unsold Inventory Index represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were Active, Pending, and Contingent (when available) and divide the sum by the number of Sold properties for the month in question. SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
30 Unsold Inventory By Price Range MONTHS Note: Unsold Inventory Index represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were Active, Pending, and Contingent (when available) and divide the sum by the number of Sold properties for the month in question. SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
31 Tight Supply of Inventory: Especially for REO Listings SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
32 Extremely Low Levels of Active Listings at the State Level Note: Unsold Inventory Index represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were Active, Pending, and Contingent (when available) and divide the sum by the number of Sold properties for the month in question. SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
33 Inventory Remained in Short Supply Unsold Inventory Index (Months) SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
34 Low Inventory Pushing Prices Upward in REOs & Equity Sales SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
35 Shadow Inventory
36 The CA Foreclosure Funnel: 8.6 Million Homes 6.8 Million Mortgages 2.07 Million Underwater.com/CAR
37 18,000/684,000 = 38 months of Inventory 434,000 Delinquent 180,000 in Foreclosure 70,000 Bank Owned 18,000 Distressed Sales.com/CAR
38 How do you define Shadow Inventory? Everyone defines it differently Bank owned? In foreclosure? Not making payments? Underwater? Urban Myth: There will be a flood of foreclosures after the election
39
40 California Foreclosure Filings, Aug NTS: 15,389, -22.7% YTD NOD: 16,590, -15.3% YTD 6 Month Average: NTSs: 16,965 NODs: 20,282 SOURCE: ForeclosureRadar.com
41 California Foreclosure Outcomes, Aug REO: -52.3% YTD 3 rd Party: -2.3% YTD Cancel: -25.2% YTD 6 Month Average: REO: 4,809 3 rd Party: 3,314 Cancelled: 9,885 SOURCE: ForeclosureRadar.com
42 California Foreclosure Inventories, Aug Preforeclosure: -20.3% YTD Schedule for Sale: -22.2% YTD Bank Owned: -27.1% YTD 6 Month Average: Preforeclosure: 92,557 Schedule for Sale: 86,194 Bank Owned: 72,774 SOURCE: ForeclosureRadar.com
43 Source: ForeclosureRadar.com as of 10/04/12. Santa Clara County Preforeclosure: 1,533 Auction: 2,203 Bank Owned: 261
44 Source: ForeclosureRadar.com as of 10/04/12. Santa Clara County Preforeclosure: 1,533 Auction: 2,203 Bank Owned: 261
45 Source: ForeclosureRadar.com as of 10/04/12. Santa Clara County Preforeclosure: 1,533 Auction: 2,203 Bank Owned: 261
46 Source: ForeclosureRadar.com as of 10/04/12. Los Gatos Preforeclosure: 43 Auction: 48 Bank Owned: 3
47 Source: ForeclosureRadar.com as of 10/04/12. Saratoga Preforeclosure: 17 Auction: 16 Bank Owned: 1
48 San Jose Preforeclosure: 1,006 Auction: 1,510 Bank Owned: 179 Source: ForeclosureRadar.com as of 10/04/12.
49 Source: ForeclosureRadar.com as of 10/04/12. Santa Cruz County Preforeclosure: 326 Auction: 376 Bank Owned: 117
50 Source: ForeclosureRadar.com as of 10/04/12. Santa Cruz County Preforeclosure: 326 Auction: 376 Bank Owned: 117
51 Source: ForeclosureRadar.com as of 10/04/12. Santa Cruz County Preforeclosure: 326 Auction: 376 Bank Owned: 117
52 2012 ANNUAL HOUSING MARKET SURVEY
53 Equity Sales vs. REO vs. Short Sales (2012) Equity Sales REO Sales Short Sales Share of Total Sales 64.7% 12.3% 21.7% Median Home Price $448,000 $185,000 $235,000 Square Footage 1,750 1,500 1,600 Price / SF $243 $116 $154 Sales-to-List Price Ratio 97.3% 100.0% 99.9% % of Sales With Multiple Offers 50.9% 70.8% 66.1% Avg. Number of Offers % of All Cash Sales % 26.7% Days on MLS Days in Escrow
54 Equity Sales (2011 vs. 2012) Share of Total Sales 64.7% 58.7% Median Home Price $448,000 $431,000 Square Footage 1,750 1,783 Price / SF $243 $250 Sales-to-List Price Ratio 97.3% 95.9% % of Sales With Multiple Offers 50.9% 35.2% Avg. Number of Offers % of All Cash Sales 27.3% 25.5% Days on MLS Days in Escrow 35 35
55 REO Sales (2011 vs. 2012) Share of Total Sales 12.3% 19.7% Median Home Price $185,000 $240,000 Square Footage 1,500 1,500 Price / SF $116 $112 Sales-to-List Price Ratio 100.0% 98.0% % of Sales With Multiple Offers 70.8% 58.3% Avg. Number of Offers % of All Cash Sales 43.1% 34.0% Days on MLS Days in Escrow 45 35
56 Short Sales (2011 vs. 2012) Share of Total Sales 21.7% 20.2% Median Home Price $235,000 $287,000 Square Footage 1,600 1,600 Price / SF $154 $175 Sales-to-List Price Ratio 99.9% 95.9% % of Sales With Multiple Offers 66.1% 57.5% Avg. Number of Offers % of All Cash Sales 26.7% 23.3% Days on MLS Days in Escrow 50 45
57 Market Competition Leads to Fewer Sales with Price Discount Long Run Average = 68% Q. What was the original list sales price of the property? What was the final sales price of the property? How many weeks did the property remain on the MLS?
58 Share of First-Time Buyers Remains Below Average But Improves from 2011 Q. Was the buyer a first-time buyer?
59 The Median Down Payment Up 24 Percent from 2011, as Home Prices Increase Q. What was the amount of downpayment?
60 Demand for Investment & Second/ Vacation Homes Dips Slightly, But Remains Strong 7% 16%
61 For Those Who Purchased an Investment Property: 17% Investment to Flip 83% Rental Property
62 More Buyers Are Purchasing with Cash Almost one third of buyers paid with all cash The share of all cash buyers has been on the rise since 2006
63 More Sellers Are Planning to Buy Another Home As the Market Slowly Recovers Q. Is the seller planning on purchasing another home?
64 For Those Who Do Not Plan to Repurchase, Here Are Their Top 5 Reasons:
65 REGIONAL HOUSING MARKETS
66 Santa Clara County
67 Sales of Residential Homes Santa Clara County, September 2012: 896 Units Down 17.3% MTM, Down 3.3% YTY SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
68 Median Price of Residential Homes Santa Clara County, September 2012: $655,000 Down 0.8% MTM, Up 19.1% YTY SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
69 For Sale Properties Santa Clara County, September 2012: 2,637 Units Down 9.9% MTM, Down 57.9% YTY Note: For Sale Properties represents the overall supply that exist throughout the entire month, including any listings that appear as Active any point in time during the month. SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
70 Month s Supply of Inventory Santa Clara County, September 2012: 1.3 Months Note: Month s Supply of Inventory represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were For Sale on the last day of the month in question. The inventory figure is then divided by the number of properties that went Under Contract during the month. SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
71 Santa Cruz County
72 Sales of Residential Homes Santa Cruz County, September 2012: 191 Units Down 10.3% MTM, Down 28.2% YTY SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
73 Median Price of Residential Homes Santa Cruz County, September 2012: $560,000 Up 2.5% MTM, Up 14.5% YTY SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
74 For Sale Properties Santa Cruz County, September 2012: 746 Units Down 13.5% MTM, Down 40.2% YTY Note: For Sale Properties represents the overall supply that exist throughout the entire month, including any listings that appear as Active any point in time during the month. SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
75 Month s Supply of Inventory Santa Cruz County, September 2012: 2.5 Months Note: Month s Supply of Inventory represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were For Sale on the last day of the month in question. The inventory figure is then divided by the number of properties that went Under Contract during the month. SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
76 Los Gatos
77 Sales of Residential Homes Los Gatos, September 2012: 29 Units Down 6.5% MTM, Up 7.4% YTY SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
78 Median Price of Residential Homes Los Gatos, September 2012: $1,273,000 Down 3.6% MTM, Up 6.1% YTY SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
79 For Sale Properties Los Gatos, September 2012: 146 Units Down 3.3% MTM, Down 37.6% YTY Note: For Sale Properties represents the overall supply that exist throughout the entire month, including any listings that appear as Active any point in time during the month. SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
80 Month s Supply of Inventory Los Gatos, September 2012: 3.7 Months Note: Month s Supply of Inventory represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were For Sale on the last day of the month in question. The inventory figure is then divided by the number of properties that went Under Contract during the month. SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
81 Saratoga
82 Sales of Residential Homes Saratoga, September 2012: 26 Units Down 10.3% MTM, Up 23.8% YTY SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
83 Median Price of Residential Homes Saratoga, September 2012: $1,675,000 Down 4.3% MTM, Up 6.3% YTY SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
84 For Sale Properties Saratoga, September 2012: 147 Units Up 2.1% MTM, Down 33.5% YTY Note: For Sale Properties represents the overall supply that exist throughout the entire month, including any listings that appear as Active any point in time during the month. SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
85 Month s Supply of Inventory Saratoga, September 2012: 2.1 Months Note: Month s Supply of Inventory represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were For Sale on the last day of the month in question. The inventory figure is then divided by the number of properties that went Under Contract during the month. SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
86 San Jose
87 Sales of Residential Homes San Jose, September 2012: 476 Units Down 17.9% MTM, Down 8.6% YTY SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
88 Median Price of Residential Homes San Jose, September 2012: $570,000 Down 0.9% MTM, Up 20.0% YTY SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
89 For Sale Properties San Jose, September 2012: 1,258 Units Down 13.7% MTM, Down 65.4% YTY Note: For Sale Properties represents the overall supply that exist throughout the entire month, including any listings that appear as Active any point in time during the month. SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
90 Month s Supply of Inventory San Jose, September 2012: 1.1 Months Note: Month s Supply of Inventory represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were For Sale on the last day of the month in question. The inventory figure is then divided by the number of properties that went Under Contract during the month. SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
91 CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET FORECAST
92 2013 Forecast
93 Forecast Report Card 2011 Projected September 2011 Forecast Date: October 2012 vs. September Forecasted September Projected 2011 Actual SFH Resales (000s) % Change 0.1% 1.1% 1.0% 5.1% Median Price ($000s) $291.0 $286.0 $296.0 $317.0 % Change 4.0% 6.2% 1.7% 10.9% Source: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
94 California Housing Market Outlook Indicator p 2013f SFH Resales (000s) % Change 27.3% 23.8% 10.0% 1.1% 5.1% 1.3% Median Price ($000s) $ $ $ $ $ $ % Change 37.8% 21.1% 10.9% 6.2% 10.9% 5.7% 30 Yr FRM 6.0% 5.1% 4.7% 4.5% 3.8% 4.0% 1 Yr ARM 5.2% 4.7% 3.5% 3.0% 2.8% 2.8%
95 Recovery Will Continue in 2013, with Both Sales and the Median Price Up Units (Thousand) Price (Thousand) SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
96 CLOSING THOUGHTS
97 Pent-Up Housing Demand is Looming
98 Housing Permits Improving Slowly 2012(p): 52,000 units, Up 10.4% from 2011 Household Growth: 220, ,000/yr SOURCE: Construction Industry Research Board
99 Buyers More Optimistic than Sellers About Future Home Prices Q Do you think home prices in the neighborhood where you purchased/sold will go up, down, or stay flat in one year?
100 First-time Buyers: Rent v. Buy? Do the Math!
101 Now is the time to get
102 Take Flight in 2013!
103 THANK YOU! A LESLIEA@CAR.ORG
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