Delmarva Outlook 2015

Transcription

1 Delmarva Outlook 2015 Presented by: William McCain W.R. McCain & Associates, Inc. Real Estate Valuation & Consultation 205 Executive Plaza Salisbury, MD (410)

2 W. R. McCain & Associates, Inc. 27 Years in Business 21 Person Staff with an average of 12 years of appraisal experience Over 10,000 Commercial Assignments Over 45,000 Residential Assignments Valued over $13 Billion of Real Estate 2

3 Unemployment Rate (Average during the year) 12 Percentage Unemployment Rate is simply the number of unemployed people divided by the number of people in the labor force; based upon household data. The unemployed people have to be looking for a job to be counted as being in the labor force. If they stopped looking for a job then they are counted as being out of the labor force and not unemployed. 3 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics website (data seasonally adjusted)

4 Jobs (8 million lost 10 million gained) In thousands 4

5 Source: DE Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, MD Department of Labor, SWED 5

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8 Homebuilder Confidence (NAHB Market Index) 8

9 Single Family Housing Starts Thousand units ½ the Normal 9

10 Annual Home Sales 10

11 New Home Sales Share 11

12 Distressed Property Sales 12

13 Renter Households over 10 years (Increased by 8 million) In thousands 13

14 Homeowner Households over 10 years (Decreased by 2 million) In thousands 14

15 Inventory of Homes for Sale 15

16 Median Price reflects the middle price of all homes sold during a period. In normal times where types of homes do no change measurably from on period to the next, then the median price can be a good gauge about home price appreciation or depreciation. However, the median price can also be a reflection not about price change appreciation but about the type of homes being sold. If, for example, mostly distressed properties are being sold then the median will be low. If mostly high-end homes are being sold, then the median will be high. Supply and Demand dynamics impact both new and existing home prices. But new home prices are also to a greater degree impacted by changes in the cost of construction, such as commodity prices and labor costs. 16 Source: FRED website

17 Economic Forecast Likely 2015 Forecast 2016 Forecast GDP Growth 2.2% 2.5% 2.7% 2.9% Job Growth +2.3 million +2.5 million +2.5 million +2.6 million CPI Inflation 1.5% 1.6% 2.7% 3.3% Consumer Confidence 10-year Treasury % 2.6% 3.2% 4.3% 17

18 Housing Forecast Forecast 2016 Forecast Housing Starts 925, million 1.16 million 1.4 million New Home Sales Existing Home Sales Median Price Growth 430, , , , million 4.9 million 5.6 million 5.4 million % + 5.3% + 3.9% + 4% 30-year Rate 4.0% 4.0% 4.9% 6.0% Underwriting Standards Strict Strict Transition Normal 18

19 30-year Mortgage Rates 19

20 U.S. House Price Performance By State September 2013 to September 2014 Source: Freddie Mac website 20

21 Lower Shore Housing Average Sale Price Somerset Years Source: MD Association of Realtors

22 Lower Shore Housing Average Sale Price Wicomico Years Source: MD Association of Realtors

23 Lower Shore Housing Average Sale Price Worcester Years Source: MD Association of Realtors 23

24 Lower Shore Housing Average Sale Price Somerset Wicomico Worcester % change % change % change YE , , ,823 YE , % 184, % 340, % YE , % 191, % 398, % YE , % 216, % 422, % YE , % 220, % 407, % YE , % 208, % 374, % YE , % 188, % 335, % YE , % 161, % 300, % YE , % 146, % 276, % YE , % 152, % 266, % YE , % 156, % 264, % YE , % 147, % 248, % Source: MD Association of Realtors 24

25 Lower Shore Housing Average Sale Price Sussex County Years Source: Del MLS

26 Lower Shore Housing Average Sale Price Kent County Years: Source: Trend MLS

27 Lower Shore Housing Average Sale Price Sussex Kent Price % Change Price % Change YE , ,833 YE , % 213, % YE , % 240, % YE , % 239, % YE , % 224, % YE , % 207, % YE , % 196, % YE , % 178, % YE , % 179, % YE , % 187, % YE , % 193, % Source: DE MLS and Trend MLS 27

28 $350,000 Lower Shore Housing Average Sale Price Northampton $325,000 $300,000 $275,000 $250,000 $225,000 $200,000 $175,000 $150, Years Source: Navica system

29 $300,000 Lower Shore Housing Average Sale Price Accomack $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100, Years: Source: Navica system 29

30 Mid/Upper Shore Housing Average Sale Price Dorchester Kent Queen Anne's Talbot Caroline % change % change % change % change % change YE , % 380, % 453, % 584, % 258, % YE , % 362, % 489, % 665, % 232, % YE , % 395, % 436, % 634, % 216, % YE , % 287, % 353, % 576, % 205, % YE , % 262, % 349, % 534, % 172, % YE , % 284, % 330, % 448, % 143, % YE , % 304, % 372, % 507, % 166, % YE , % 298, % 379, % 484, % 154, % YE , % 296, % 366, % 442, % 148, % Source: MD Association of Realtors 30

31 Lower Shore Housing Unit Sales Somerset Single Family, Condos & Town homes Yearly Comparison Source: MD Association of Realtors

32 Lower Shore Housing Unit Sales Wicomico Single Family, Condos & Town homes 1,150 1,100 1,050 1, Yearly Comparison Source: MD Association of Realtors

33 Lower Shore Housing Unit Sales Worcester Single Family, Condos & Town homes 2,400 2,300 2,200 2,100 2,000 1,900 1,800 1,700 1,600 1,500 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 1, Yearly Comparison Source: MD Association of Realtors 33

34 Lower Shore Housing Unit Sales Sussex Single Family, Condo & Town Homes 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1, Yearly Comparison Source: DE MLS 34

35 2,750 Lower Shore Housing Unit Sales Kent Single Family, Condos & Town homes 2,500 2,250 2,000 1,750 1,500 1,250 1, Yearly Comparison Source: Trend MLS 35

36 Eastern Shore of VA Housing Unit Sales Yearly Comparison Source: Navica MLS

37 Mid/Upper Shore Housing Unit Sales Dorchester Kent Caroline Queen Anne's Talbot Source: Maryland Association of Realtors

38 Lower Shore Active Listings Somerset New & existing Single Family homes, Condos, Town homes Active listing data is as of December 31 st of each year 38 Source: Flex MLS

39 Lower Shore Active Listings Wicomico New & existing Single Family homes, Condos, Town homes Active listing data is as of December 31 st of each year 39 Source: Flex MLS

40 Lower Shore Active Listings Worcester New & existing Single Family homes, Condos, Town homes Active listing data is as of December 31 st of each year 40 Source: Flex MLS

41 Sussex County Active Listings New & existing Single Family homes, Condos, Townhomes Note: 3,945; as of 12/5/2012 3,389; as of 12/31/2012 3,329; as of 4/24/2013 4,111; as of 8/12/2013 3,520; 12/30/2013 3,343; 08/07/2014 3,877; 12/22/2014 3,436; as of 3/2/15: 3, Source: Sussex County MLS

42 Kent County Active Listings New & existing Single Family homes, Condos, Townhomes 42 Source: Trend MLS

43 Wicomico County Housing Unit Permits: Single Family Structures 43 Source: SOCDS

44 3,600 Delaware Housing Unit Permits: Single Family Structures 3,100 Sussex 2,600 Kent 2,100 1,600 1, Source: SOCDS

45 Single Family Structures Building Permits Year Wicomico Worcester Somerset Source: SOCDS & Somerset Planning & Zoning Office 45

46 Single Family Structures Building Permits Year Sussex Kent Source: SOCDS 46

47 Property Foreclosure Events in Maryland Jurisdictions 2014 Q2 Jurisdiction Notices of default Lender Purchases (REO) Total Number %Change from 2014 Q1 % Change from 2013 Q2 Caroline % 39.7% Dorchester % 28.1% Kent % -0.6% Queen Anne s % 11.6% Somerset % 23.6% Talbot % 16.4% Wicomico % 41.6% Worcester % 32.7% Maryland 5,101 2,859 11, % 3.2% 47 Source: MD DHCD and RealtyTrac

48 Property Foreclosure Events in Maryland Jurisdictions 2014 Q4 Jurisdiction Notices of default Lender Purchases (REO) Total Number %Change from 2014 Q3 Caroline % 6.0% % Change from 2013 Q4 Dorchester % 27.0% Kent % 27.6% Queen Anne s % 14.9% Somerset % -24.3% Talbot % 18.4% Wicomico % 61.7% Worcester % 15.4% Maryland 6,557 3,565 13, % 9.6% Source: MD DHCD and RealtyTrac 48

49 Total Number of filings Delaware Foreclosure Filings 49 Source: The State of Delaware website, Corelogic report

50 Months Inventory Existing Units Source: SWED: MD Association of Realtors

51 SO WHAT S HAPPENING TO THE LOCAL REAL ESTATE MARKET Eastern Shore of Maryland Minimal New Construction has had major Impact. Little product to attract new buyers and keep existing buyers. Septic regs. Plus loss of jobs. Delaware Significantly more new construction and projects. Offers buyers choices. More sales activity, less inventory, but no impact on value. However, macro economic principles should win. 51

52 Commercial Real Estate Values Moody s estimates commercial values declined between 40% - 47% from peak to trough. 52

53 53

54 Lower Shore MD Commercial Improved Median Sale Price: Somerset 2014 Data is as of November 2014 Source: MD Tax Records 54

55 Lower Shore MD Commercial Improved Median Sale Price: Wicomico 2014 Data is as of November 2014 Source: MD Tax Records 55

56 Lower Shore MD Commercial Improved Median Sale Price: Worcester 2014 Data is as of November Source: MD Tax Records

57 Lower Shore DE Commercial Median Sale Price Improved & Unimproved - Sussex $600,000 $550,000 $500,000 $450,000 $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200, Data is as of December Source: DEL MLS

58 Lower Shore DE Commercial Median Sale Price Improved & Unimproved - Kent $800,000 $700,000 $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100, Data is as of December 2014 Source: DEL MLS 58

59 Non-Residential Units Sold Improved - Somerset Est data is annualized based off of data from January-November Source: MD Tax Records 59

60 Non-Residential Units Sold Improved - Wicomico Est data is annualized based off of data from January-November 60 Source: MD Tax Records

61 Non-Residential Units Sold Improved - Worcester data is based on data from January-November 61 Source: MD Tax Records

62 110 Non-Residential Units Sold Improved & Unimproved - Sussex data is annualized based off of data from January-December 62 Source: DE Tax Records, Innovia MLS System

63 Non-Residential Units Sold Improved & Unimproved - Kent data is based off of data from January-December Source: DE Tax Records 63

64 Lower Shore Commercial Improved Active Listings as of December 31 st Somerset Source: FLEX MLS 64

65 120 Lower Shore Commercial Improved Active Listings as of December 31 st Wicomico Source: FLEX MLS 65

66 200 Lower Shore Commercial Improved Active Listings as of December 31 st Worcester Source: FLEX MLS

67 Resort Areas Commercial Number of New Listings Ocean City, Fenwick & Bethany Delaware Resort (Rehoboth Beach, Lewes & Dewey Beach) Est data is as of December 2014 Ocean City data is as of November Source: Sussex and Flex MLS

68 Resort Areas Commercial Average List Price $1,400,000 $1,300,000 $1,200,000 $1,100,000 Ocean City, Fenwick & Bethany Delaware Resort (Rehoboth Beach, Lewes & Dewey Beach) $1,000,000 $900,000 $800,000 $700,000 $600,000 $500, Est data is as of December 2014 Ocean City data is as of November Source: Sussex and Flex MLS

69 Resort Areas Commercial Units Sold Ocean City, Fenwick, Bethany Delaware Resort (Rehoboth Beach, Lewes, Dewey Beach) Est data is as of December 2014 Ocean City data is as of November Source: Sussex and Flex MLS

70 $1,000,000 $900,000 $800,000 Resort Areas Commercial Average Sale Price Ocean City, Bethany & Fenwick Delaware Resort (Rehoboth Beach, Lewes & Dewey Beach) $700,000 $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200, Est data is as of December 2014 Ocean City data is as of November Source: Sussex and Flex MLS

71 Resort Areas Commercial Absorption Rate 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Ocean City, Bethany & Fenwick Delaware Resort (Rehoboth Beach, Lewes & Dewey Beach) 0% Est data is as of December 2014 Ocean City data is as of November Source: Sussex and Flex MLS

72 Delaware Non Resort Commercial Number of New Listings Georgetown, Gumboro, Little Creek, Broad Creek, Nanticoke, Northwest Fork and Seaford, Dagsboro Hundred data is as of December Source: Sussex MLS

73 Delaware Non Resort Commercial Average List Price $800,000 $750,000 $700,000 $650,000 Georgetown, Gumboro, Little Creek, Broad Creek, Nanticoke, Northwest Fork and Seaford, Dagsboro Hundred $600,000 $550,000 $500,000 $450,000 $400, data is as of December Source: Sussex MLS

74 Delaware Non Resort Commercial Units Sold Georgetown, Gumboro, Little Creek, Broad Creek, Nanticoke, Northwest Fork and Seaford, Dagsboro Hundred data is as of December

75 Delaware Non Resort Commercial Average Sale Price $550,000 $500,000 $450,000 Georgetown, Gumboro, Little Creek, Broad Creek, Nanticoke, Northwest Fork and Seaford, Dagsboro Hundred $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200, data is as of December

76 Delaware Non Resort Commercial Absorption Rate Georgetown, Gumboro, Little Creek, Broad Creek, Nanticoke, Northwest Fork and Seaford, Dagsboro Hundred data is as of December

77 7000 Average $/Acre Agricultural Land Values for Wicomico County Average $/Acre Criteria: Minimum 35 acres or more. Excludes: data outliers, marshlands, multi-parcel commercial transactions and timber tracts 77 Source: W.R. McCain & Associates, Inc., MD State Tax Records, Flex MLS system

78 2015 Predictions Local real estate market is wiggling! Economy to grow at a modest 2.2 to 2.9% Unemployment to remain stable around 6.0% Real Estate market will probably mostly mirror 2014 with some improvement Baby Boomers and Come Heres continue to drive market demand to some degree for our region New housing starts remain slow due to high construction cost, septic restrictions, and large disparity compared to existing home prices but will show some signs of improvement What you see is what you get for 2015,but could get surprised Cautious optimism. Should see some improvement in values 78