Housing and Economy Market Trends

Transcription

1 Housing and Economy Market Trends

2 Mainstreet Organization Prices of single-family, detached homes in suburban Chicago increased 12.1 percent in May 2014 compared with the same period a year ago. Overall, we are seeing many positive indicators for the suburban housing market: good prices, multiple offers and inventory levels that have begun to stabilize in some areas, said Michael Parent, president of MORe. MORe news release

3 Illinois Home Sales Illinois home sales are lower than last year, but edging up when comparing month-to-month. Statewide home sales were down 9.4 percent annually in May, but are up 16.4 percent compared to April Inventory, which has been an issue in recent months, is beginning to climb, giving buyers more potential properties to consider. IAR Reports: June 23, 2014

4 Illinois Association of REALTORS Reports/U of I REAL "Sales continue to increase on a month-to-month basis although they have been unable to match the stellar gains of last year. The impact of foreclosures continues to decrease with the expectation that the numbers of foreclosed properties on the market will return to pre-recession levels sometime in the next 6-12 months. Homeownership rates for retiring Baby Boomers continue to increase providing some potential medium-term housing market growth opportunities," said Geoffrey J. D. Hewings, Director of the Regional Economics Applications Laboratory of the University of Illinois. IAR June Housing Price Forecast

5 U of I REAL/IAR June Housing Price Forecast

6 Foreclosure Activity in Chicagoland In May 2014, 2,113 houses were newly filed for foreclosure in the Chicago PMSA (down 42.7% and 23.7% respectively from a year and a month ago). As of May 2014, there were 24,469 homes at some stage of foreclosure. REAL/IAR June 2014 Forecast

7 Realty Trac Foreclosure Activity Illinois foreclosure activity decreased 23 percent on a year-over-year basis in May, but two consecutive months with annual increases in REO activity boosted the state s foreclosure rate to fourth highest nationwide in May. One in every 790 Illinois housing units had a foreclosure filing for the month. U.S. foreclosure filings were down 5% compared to April and down 26% from last May. Realty Trac news release

8 Midwest Real Estate Data LLC New Listings in Chicagoland were up 13.6 percent for detached homes and 7.7 percent for attached properties. Listings Under Contract Increased 10.7% for detached homes and 10.3% for attached properties. Months Supply of Inventory decreased 9.6% for detached units and 20.1 percent for attached units. May 2014 MRED report

9 Statewide Unemployment Trends The Statewide Unemployment Rate Fell for the Third Consecutive Month to 7.5% in May and is at the lowest level since November IL May Unemployment Rate 7.5% The largest increase in job growth in May was Lake-Kenosha (+2.0%)

10 Chicago Federal Reserve Bank "The economy is forecasted to grow at a solid pace in 2014 and at a somewhat faster pace in The growth rate of real GDP is predicted to be 2.3% in 2014 and 2.8% in The housing sector is predicted to continue to improve over the forecast horizon. Real residential investments is anticipated to expand at a rate of 5.4% in 2014 and at a rate of 7.5% in Chicago Fed Letter, July 2014, William A. Strauss, Senior Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

11 Freddie Mac Most housing markets remain weak despite declining mortgage delinquencies, improving local employment, house price gains and attractive mortgage rates due to weak home purchase mortgage applications. Illinois was included in the five most improving states month-over-month (+0.12) June 25,2014 Freddie Mac Multi-Indicator Market Index

12 Freddie Mac Fixed mortgage rates are officially lower than last year's levels, when Fed remarks spurred market speculation that it could begin tapering its bond purchases causing mortgage rates to spike. The 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 4.15 percent for the North Central Region for week of 6/26. We expect fixed rates to rise gradually during the second half of the year in part as a result of the Federal Reserve's "tapering" of net mortgage-backed securities acquisitions. (Freddie Mac US Economic and Housing Outlook 6/18 and Fixed Rate Mortgage Release 6/26/2014 )

13 Fannie Mae Reports Economic activity contracted in the first quarter of 2014, weakening the odds that full-year growth will top last year's pace, according to Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research Group. "We remain confident that the first-quarter drop in activity will reverse, and we are seeing some positive signs in the current quarter, but economic growth likely will be playing catch-up for the rest of the year," said Fannie Mae Chief Economist Doug Duncan. 6/24/2014 Fannie Mae release

14 National Association of REALTORS "Rising inventory bodes well for slower price growth and greater affordability, but the amount of homes for sale is still modestly below a balanced market. Therefore, new home construction is still needed to keep prices and housing supply healthy in the long run," said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for NAR. First-time homebuyers represented less than one-third of all buyers at 27% in May. 6/23/2014 NAR release

15 NAR Housing Market Forecast NAR Housing Market Forecast, 6/30/14

16 NAR Pending Home Sales Sales should exceed an annual pace of five million homes in some of the upcoming months behind favorable mortgage rates, more inventory and improved job creation, said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of REALTORS. However, second-half sales growth won t be enough to compensate for the sluggish first quarter and will likely fall below last year s total. NAR May Pending Sales Index Report 6/30/2014

17 National Association of Home Builders Sales of newly built, single-family homes rose 18.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 504,000 units in May, according to newly released data by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau. This is the highest rate since May /24/14 National Association of Home Builders news release

18 Case-Shiller Home Price Index Near term economic factors favor further gains in housing: mortgage rates are lower than a year ago, the Fed is expected to keep interest rates steady until mid-2015 and the labor market is improving. However, housing is not back to normal: prices are being supported by cash sales, low inventories and declining foreclosure and REO sales. First time home buyers are not back in force and qualifying for a mortgage remains challenging. The question is whether housing will bounce back before the Fed begins to tighten sometime next year," says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. S&P Indices/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices 6/24/14

19 Consumer Confidence Index The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which had increased in May, improved again in June. The Index now stands at 85.2 (1985=100), up from 82.2 in May. Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board: Consumer confidence continues to advance and the index is now at its highest level since January 2008 (87.3). June s increase was driven primarily by improving current conditions, particularly consumers assessment of business conditions. Expectations regarding the short-term outlook for the economy and jobs were moderately more favorable, while income expectations were a bit mixed. Still, the momentum going forward remains quite positive. 6/24/2014 Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index

20 Thomson-Reuters University of Michigan Consumer Survey More consumers reported that their financial situation had improved in the June Thomson-Reuters/University of Michigan survey of consumers. The June consumer sentiment index stood at 82.5 higher than the weaker 81.9 in May. June of last year it was Consumers are less optimistic about their future financial prospects. Just one-in-four households expected their finances to improve in the year ahead. Half of all households anticipate declining living standards. ( Survey of Consumers-Thomson Reuters University of MI)