Housing Price Forecasts. Illinois and Chicago PMSA, October 2014

Transcription

1 Housing Price Forecasts Illinois and Chicago PMSA, October 2014 Presented To Illinois Association of Realtors From R E A L Regional Economics Applications Laboratory, Institute of Government and Public Affairs University of Illinois October 21, 2014

2 Housing Price Forecast: Illinois and Chicago PMSA, October 2014 The Housing Market In September, sales and median housing prices in Illinois and the Chicago PMSA both experienced milder annual changes compared to last month. Sales experienced the smallest year-over-year decrease since January ,879 houses were sold in Illinois, 4.4% less than a year ago. In the Chicago PMSA, 9,117 houses were sold, 6.4% less than last September. The median price experienced the smallest year-over-year increase since March The median price was $161,900 in Illinois, up 4.5% from September last year; the comparable figure for the Chicago PMSA was $195,000, up 5.4% from this time last year. The reduction in the declining rates for the total sales was mainly contributed by a smaller decrease in the regular sales. 7,495 regular sales were made in September, only a trivial 0.9% less than a year ago while foreclosed properties sold were 25.9% less than a year ago. The milder increase in the median prices is due to smaller growth in both regular and foreclosed property sales. The median price was $218,000 for regular property sales in Chicago, up 2.8% from September last year; the comparable figure for the foreclosed properties was $115,500, up 5.0% from this time last year. The sales forecast for October, November and December 2014 suggests an uptick on the annual basis but declines on the monthly basis. Annually, the three-month average forecasts point to a change of between 2.0% and 2.7% for Illinois; for the Chicago PMSA, the change will range from 1.7% to 2.3%. On a monthly basis, the three-month average sales are forecast to decrease by 2.7%-3.6% for Illinois and 2.2%-2.9% for the Chicago PMSA. Foreclosed property sales are related to the number of real estate owned (REO) properties and there were 1,797 REOs generated this September. The median price forecast indicates moderate annual increases in median prices for October, November and December compared to a year ago. In Illinois, the median price is forecast to rise by 4.6% in October, 7.0% in November and 4.1% in December. For the Chicago PMSA, the comparable figures are 7.8% in October, 8.8% in November and 5.9% in December. As a complement to the median housing price index (HPI), the REAL HPI 1 forecast a more robust growth trend for Illinois and the Chicago PMSA. In Illinois, the REAL HPI (Jan 2008=1) is forecast to rise by 7.8% in October, 8.0% in November and 5.2% in December. The comparable figures for the Chicago PMSA are 10.1% in October, 12.4% in November and 9.7% in December. REAL HPI takes housing characteristics into account and constructs comparable baskets of homes for each month. The full recovery to healthy housing market conditions seems to be continuing but the encouraging news in the job market seems not to have fully influenced the housing market. Earlier this year, Freddie Mac released a new index - MiMi 2 to monitor on the stability and recovery of the nation s housing market. They indicate each market s current conditions as weak, in range or elevated, relative to their historic stable level before Four 1 REAL HPI was developed by Esteban Lopez and Minshu Du. Contact us for further details. 2

3 perspectives are gauged: home purchase application, payment-to-income ratios, portion of ontime mortgage and local employment. In September, Illinois is most improved states on a monthly basis (+0.92%). Chicago Metro is the second (+0.62%) and third (+14.73%) most improved metro area respectively on a month-over-month and year-over-year basis. However, the housing market conditions in these two areas are still weak compared to their historic stable level. The recovery level of Illinois ranks 47 th among all the states and the Chicago Metro ranks 44 th out of 50 Metro areas. As noted, the job market has sent positive signals in the last few months. In September 2014, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Employment Situation report, the national unemployment rate declined to a six-year low of 5.9% and nonfarm payroll jobs experienced gains of 248,000 jobs. Statewide, according to Illinois Department of Employment Security (IDES) news release, in August 2014 the Illinois unemployment rate fell to 6.7% - the lowest since July 2008 and also the largest year-over-year decline since ,800 non-farm payroll jobs were created. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index increased to 84.6 the highest in the last seven years, largely due to the positive consumers sentiment on the job growth. However, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index decreased for the first time after four consecutive months of increase. The Scotsman Guide reporting on research conducted by Fannie Mae found that millennials (those born between 1981 and 2000) have reasonable access to affordable housing but are not buying, largely for reasons already known: high unemployment, not enough access to down payment capital, lots of student loan debt and subpar median incomes. The report found that if the homeownership rates of 2006 had continued uninterrupted, there would be 2.4 million more young homeowners today. At the same time, some three-quarters of young people are now spending 30 percent of their income on housing, less than at other times over the past decade. The analysis continued to note that homeownership rates among this group were falling but at a moderating rate. Additional evidence suggests that this cohort may have much reduced preferences for ownership with higher dependence on rental housing, cars, bicycles and a greater patronage of public transit. Several analysts interviewed pointed to a strong link between potential misinformation about financing of a house, the increasing burden of student debt and continuing uncertainty about the recovery of the job market. This group s participation in the housing market will be key to a return to more normal market. The Housing Market Current Condition In September, sales and median housing prices in Illinois and the Chicago PMSA both experienced milder annual changes compared to last month. 12,879 houses were sold in Illinois, 4.4% less than a year ago. In the Chicago PMSA, 9,117 houses were sold, 6.4% less than last September. The median price was $161,900 in Illinois, up 4.5% from September last year; the comparable figure for the Chicago PMSA was $195,000, up 5.4% from this time last year. (Reference: Illinois and Chicago PMSA Total Home Sales and Median Home Sales Price figures; Forecast for October 2014 report table) In September Chicago PMSA, the percentage of foreclosed sales (e.g. REOs) among the total sales increased to 16.2%, the second lowest since Oct ,495 regular sales were made, a small 0.9% decline from a year ago. 1,568 foreclosed properties were sold, 25.9% less than last September. The median price was $218,000 for regular property

4 sales, up 2.8% from September last year; the comparable figure for the foreclosed properties was $115,500, up 5.0% from this time last year. (Reference: Sales and Median Sales Price for Chicago PMSA: Foreclosed vs. Regular) In September, at the latest average annual pending sales rate, Illinois had enough housing inventory for 5.9 months 3 (down from 6.0 months a year ago). In the Chicago PMSA, the comparable figure was 4.4 months (up from 4.3 months a year ago). Months of supply are increasing for homes in all price ranges above $200K and decreasing for homes below $200K in both Illinois and the Chicago PMSA. However in Illinois, the overall trend of the months inventory was dominated by the decreasing trend for homes priced at the lower end in contrast to the Chicago PMSA which was dominated by increases for more expensive homes. (Reference: Illinois and Chicago PMSA Annual Months Supply by Price Range figures) In September, homes priced below $100K held a smaller market share compared to a year ago, while homes at other higher price ranges either received increases in market shares or were little changed. For Illinois, homes priced below $100K held a market share that decreased to 26.8% from 29.3% a year ago. The comparable figure for the Chicago PMSA was 18.8% decreasing from 22.4% recorded in September (Reference: Illinois and Chicago PMSA Price Stratification figures) The Housing Market Forecast and Future Condition The median price forecast indicates moderate annual increases in median prices for October, November and December compared to a year ago. In Illinois, the median price is forecast to rise by 4.6% in October, 7.0% in November and 4.1% in December. For the Chicago PMSA, the comparable figures are 7.8% in October, 8.8% in November and 5.9% in December. (Reference: Forecast for October 2014 report table) As a complement to the median housing price index (HPI), the REAL HPI 4 forecast a more robust growth trend for Illinois and the Chicago PMSA. In Illinois, the REAL HPI (Jan 2008=1) is forecast to rise by 7.8% in October, 8.0% in November and 5.2% in December. The comparable figures for the Chicago PMSA are 10.1% in October, 12.4% in November and 9.7% in December. REAL HPI takes housing characteristics into account and constructs comparable baskets of homes for each month. (Reference: Housing Price Index) The sales forecast for October, November and December 2014 suggests an uptrend on the annual basis and downtrend on the monthly basis. Annually, the three-month average forecasts point to a change of between 2.0% and 2.7% for Illinois; for the Chicago PMSA, the change will range from 1.7% to 2.3%. On a monthly basis, the three-month average sales are forecast to decrease by 2.7%-3.6% for Illinois and 2.2%- 2.9% for the Chicago PMSA. (Reference: Forecast for October 2014 report table) The pending home sales index 5 is a leading indicator based on contract signings. This September, homes put under contract decreased on the monthly basis but increased on the annual basis. The pending home sales index is (2008=100) in Illinois, down 3 Months supply of inventory is defined as inventory of homes for sale at the end of the month divided by the average monthly pending sales in the last twelve months. 4 REAL HPI was developed by Esteban Lopez and Minshu Du. Contact us for further details. 5 The base level (100) of pending home sales is the average pending home sales of year 2008.

5 8.6% from last month and up 3.9% from a year ago. In the Chicago PMSA, the comparable figure is 156.4, down 4.8% from last month and up 8.5% from a year ago. (Reference: Illinois and Chicago PMSA Pending Home Sales Index figure) In September 2014, 2,250 houses were newly filed for foreclosure in the Chicago PMSA (down 21.0% and up 7.6% respectively from a year and a month ago) and 3,089 foreclosures were completed 6 (down 53.0% and up 7.0% respectively from a year ago and a month ago). Among all the completed foreclosures, 1,797 were REOs and 292 were sold through auctions. As of October 2014, there are 31,881 homes are at some stage of foreclosures the foreclosure inventory. The average inventory change rates 7 were -2.1% in the past 3 months, -5.0% in the last 6 months and -5.8% in the last 9 months. Given these rates of change, the foreclosure inventory would return to the prebubble levels 8 by Jan 2018, Mar 2016 and Dec 2015 respectively. (Reference: Chicago PMSA Foreclosure Activity and Inventory figures). The Economy In September 2014, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Employment Situation report, the national unemployment rate declined to 5.9% and nonfarm payroll jobs experienced gains of 248,000 jobs. Among all industries, professional and business services added the most jobs (+81,000), followed by retail trade (+35,000). Moreover, the construction sector created 16,000 jobs, out of which 6,000 are in the residential building subsector. In August 2014, according to Illinois Department of Employment Security (IDES) news release, the Illinois unemployment rate fell to 6.7% - the lowest since July 2008 and also the largest year-over-year decline since ,800 non-farm payroll jobs were created. Through August 2014, Illinois has added 263,100 new private sector jobs since February 2010 when Illinois employment growth resumed after the national recession. In August 2014, the one-year-ahead forecast for Illinois indicates that the non-farm employment will edge up at a rate between 1.28 % and 1.80%, corresponding to job gains between 74,700 and 105,200. The total gains are forecast to be contributed by nine out of ten sectors: education and health (2.36%; 20,800), trade, transportation and utilities (1.16%; 13,500), construction (5.68%; 11,500), professional and business services (1.93%; 17,400), leisure and hospitality (1.60%; 8,800), financial activities (1.00%; 3,700), Government (0.81%; 6,800), manufacturing (0.24%; 1,400) and other services (0.52%; 1,300). Longer-term Outlook In September, two consumer confidence indices pointed in different directions for consumers sentiments. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index decreased for the first time after four consecutive months of increase and stands at 86.0 (1985=100); the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, however, increased to 84.6 the 6 Including estimated foreclosure completions that are missing in the data. 7 The range of months used for calculating the average change rates are modified from the 6/12/24 months scenarios to 3/6/9 months scenarios since Aug Average foreclosure inventory from

6 highest in the last seven years. While the former survey reveals a less positive consumers sentiment on the job growth, the later still highlight the favorable job market conditions in consumers evaluations. The Chicago Business Activity Index (CBAI) decreased to 98.7 in August from in July. The fall is attributed to a decrease in job growth in the nonmanufacturing sector and to a fall in retail activity in the Chicago area. As the housing market enters a normally slow season, the trend of the last few months of declining sales on a month-to-month basis is expected to continue, but with gains on a yearover-year basis for the remainder of 2014, noted Geoffrey J.D. Hewings, Director of the Regional Economics Applications Laboratory of the University of Illinois. However, prices are still forecast to increase and inventories are slowly expanding.

7 Forecast for October 2014 report PERCENTAGE CHANGE FOR THE TOTAL NUMBER OF SALES Annual Monthly Illinois Chicago PMSA Illinois Chicago PMSA Jul % -6.7% -2.2% -1.5% Aug % -12.2% -4.8% -6.8% Sep % -6.4% -13.3% -13.2% 3 Month Avg. -6.5% -8.5% -6.6% -7.0% SUMMARY OF THE FORECAST INTERVALS FOR THE TOTAL NUMBER OF SALES Annual Monthly Illinois Chicago PMSA Illinois Chicago PMSA Oct % -2.2% -4.2% -5.6% -1.2% -1.6% -1.1% -1.5% Nov % 9.0% 9.0% 12.2% -6.0% -8.1% -3.8% -5.1% Dec % 2.1% 1.6% 2.2% -0.7% -1.0% -1.6% -2.2% 3 Month Avg. 2.0% 2.7% 1.7% 2.3% -2.7% -3.6% -2.2% -2.9% SUMMARY OF THE FORECAST FOR THE MEDIAN PRICE Illinois Chicago PMSA Illinois Chicago PMSA Jul-14 $179,000 $218,000 Jul-13 $167,000 $200,000 Aug-14 $175,000 $215,000 Aug-13 $165,000 $197,000 Sep-14 $161,900 $195,000 Sep-13 $155,000 $185,000 Oct-14 $156,900 $188,708 Oct-13 $150,000 $175,000 Nov-14 $155,130 $184,371 Nov-13 $145,000 $169,500 Dec-14 $154,593 $186,910 Dec-13 $148,500 $176,500 ANNUAL PERCENTAGE CHANGE OF THE MEDIAN PRICE Illinois Chicago PMSA Illinois Chicago PMSA Jul % 9.0% Jul % 17.6% Aug % 9.1% Aug % 15.9% Sep % 5.4% Sep % 15.6% Oct % 7.8% Oct % 14.7% Nov % 8.8% Nov % 9.4% Dec % 5.9% Dec % 17.7%

8 Forecast for September 2014 report PERCENTAGE CHANGE FOR THE TOTAL NUMBER OF SALES Annual Monthly Illinois Chicago PMSA Illinois Chicago PMSA Jun % 0.7% 12.4% 14.8% Jul % -6.9% -2.3% -1.7% Aug % -13.3% -5.7% -7.9% 3 Month Avg. -4.8% -6.6% 1.1% 1.2% SUMMARY OF THE FORECAST INTERVALS FOR THE TOTAL NUMBER OF SALES Annual Monthly Illinois Chicago PMSA Illinois Chicago PMSA Sep % -5.7% -6.4% -8.7% -10.9% -14.7% -11.2% -15.2% Oct % -12.9% -5.9% -8.0% -8.6% -11.7% -1.9% -2.6% Nov % -9.9% 1.4% 1.8% -11.1% -15.0% -8.7% -11.8% 3 Month Avg. -7.0% -9.4% -4.0% -5.4% -10.2% -13.8% -7.5% -10.1% SUMMARY OF THE FORECAST FOR THE MEDIAN PRICE Illinois Chicago PMSA Illinois Chicago PMSA Jun-14 $179,900 $220,000 Jun-13 $170,000 $205,000 Jul-14 $179,000 $218,000 Jul-13 $167,000 $200,000 Aug-14 $175,000 $215,000 Aug-13 $165,000 $197,000 Sep-14 $166,086 $205,985 Sep-13 $155,000 $185,000 Oct-14 $161,086 $196,308 Oct-13 $150,000 $175,000 Nov-14 $159,342 $195,604 Nov-13 $145,000 $169,500 ANNUAL PERCENTAGE CHANGE OF THE MEDIAN PRICE Illinois Chicago PMSA Illinois Chicago PMSA Jun % 7.3% Jun % 13.0% Jul % 9.0% Jul % 17.6% Aug % 9.1% Aug % 15.9% Sep % 11.3% Sep % 15.6% Oct % 12.2% Oct % 14.7% Nov % 15.4% Nov % 9.4%

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