U.S. Economic and Institutional Apartment Market Overview and Outlook. January 7, 2015

Transcription

1 U.S. Economic and Institutional Apartment Market Overview and Outlook January 7, 2015

2 Emerging Economic Trends

3 Inflation Adjusted Crude Oil Prices In Alignment with Long-Term Average Price per Barrel (Nov Dollars) $160 $120 $80 $40 $0 Long-Term Average: $ * * Through December Oil prices for West Texas Intermediate crude Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Energy Information Administration, BLS

4 U.S. GDP Growth Accelerates Numerous Drivers in Unison Annualized Quarterly Percent Change Industrial Starts (in millions) 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% * 2015** * Estimate ** Forecast Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, BEA

5 Confidence Rising Will Support Economic Momentum Consumer Confidence Small Business Optimism Consumer Confidence Index Budget Set Until Sept 2015 Debt Ceiling Locked In Until Mar Small Business Optimism Index * * Through November Index: December 2002 = 100 Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, The Conference Board, NFIB

6 Employment Gains Accelerating Likely to Lift Wage Growth in 2015 Quarterly Job Growth (Millions) Million +8.2 Million Million* 2015 Forecast: 3.1 Million * 2015** * Estimate ** Forecast Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, BLS

7 National Employment Rank by Metro Y-O-Y Absolute Change Through November 2014 Top 10 Metros Absolute Change Percent Change Bottom 10 Metros Absolute Change Percent Change Houston 126, % Dallas-Ft. Worth 114, % New York 80, % Seattle 61, % Los Angeles 58, % Atlanta 56, % Phoenix 53, % Orlando 48, % Boston 46, % San Diego 43, % U.S. Total 2,734, % Philadelphia -2, % Columbus 3, % Northern NJ 8, % Kansas City 10, % Cleveland 12, % Detroit 14, % Palm Beach 14, % Washington, D.C. 15, % Jacksonville 15, % Tampa 15, % U.S. Total 2,734, % Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, BLS

8 Emerging Economic Trends

9 National Housing Market Flattening Home Sales May Accelerate in 2015

10 Housing Market Flattening; Financing Availability May Boost Activity Median Home Prices Existing Home Sales $250 Single-Family Condo 650 Single-Family and Condo Median Price (000s) $225 $200 $175 Y-O-Y Change +6% +1% Home Sales (000s) Y-O-Y Change +2% $ * * * Through November Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, National Association of Realtors

11 $1,800 Median Home Payment Likely to Rise; Gap With Apartment Rents to Widen in 2015 Home Payment Apartment Rent $1,500 Monthly Payment $1,200 $900 $600 $ * Estimate ** Forecast; assumes 0.5% rise in mortgage rates Mortgage payments based on quarterly median home price for a 30-year fixed rate conventional mortgage, 90% LTV, and 1.5% taxes and insurance Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, MPF Research, Freddie Mac, National Association of Realtors -$ * 2015** $96

12 Lower Risk Markets Based on Home Mortgage Payment and Rent Gap Least Affordable Markets 3Q 2014 Monthly Home Payment 3Q 2014 Average Rent Affordability Gap Manhattan* $7,300 $3,261 $4,039 San Francisco $5,857 $2,690 $3,167 San Jose $4,919 $2,271 $2,648 Oakland $4,015 $1,787 $2,228 Orange County $3,877 $1,699 $2,178 San Diego $2,825 $1,532 $1,293 Los Angeles $2,484 $1,738 $746 Seattle $2,000 $1,263 $737 Washington, D.C. $2,173 $1,576 $597 Portland $1,624 $1,035 $589 U.S. Average $1,176 $1,166 $10 * Includes condominiums Mortgage payments based on 3Q 2014 median home price for a 30-year fixed rate conventional mortgage, 90% LTV, and 1.5% taxes and insurance Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, MPF Research, Freddie Mac, National Association of Realtors, Douglas Elliman Real Estate

13 Higher Risk Markets Based on Home Mortgage Payment and Rent Gap Most Affordable Markets 3Q 2014 Monthly Home Payment 3Q 2014 Average Rent Affordability Gap Detroit $482 $828 -$346 Cleveland $686 $807 -$121 Chicago $1,147 $1,258 -$111 Tampa $863 $931 -$68 Cincinnati $769 $812 -$43 Atlanta $887 $915 -$28 St. Louis $782 $801 -$19 Indianapolis $821 $752 $69 Columbus $866 $785 $81 Kansas City $887 $802 $85 U.S. Average $1,176 $1,166 $10 Mortgage payments based on 3Q 2014 median home price for a 30-year fixed rate conventional mortgage, 90% LTV, and 1.5% taxes and insurance Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, MPF Research, Freddie Mac, National Association of Realtors

14 National Housing Market Flattening Home Sales May Accelerate in 2015

15 Interest Rates Could Emerge as a Major Factor

16 10-Year Treasury Bouncing Near 30-Year Trough Rate 16% 12% 8% 4% 0% Year High: 13.56% * Through January 2 Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Federal Reserve Year Average: 5.8% 30-Year Low: 1.53% *

17 Core Inflation vs. 10-Year Treasury 4% Core Inflation 10-Year Avg. Core Inflation 10-Year Treasury 10-Year Avg. 10-Year Treasury 3.35% 3% Rate 2% 1.93% 1% 40-Year Average Core Inflation: 4.07% 10-Year Treasury: 6.78% 10-Year Average Core Inflation: 1.93% 0% 10-Year Treasury: 3.35% * * Through November Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Federal Reserve, BLS

18 6.0% U.S. Wage Growth Trends Y-O-Y Percent Change 4.5% 3.0% 1.5% Long-Term Average: 3.1% 2.12% 0.0% * * Through 3Q Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, BLS

19 Fed Holdings and 10-Year Treasury Rates $ % Fed Holdings (Trillions) $3.6 $2.4 $ % 3.0% 1.5% 10-Year Treasury $ % * * Through December 24 Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Federal Reserve TIPS/TIPS Inflation Compensation/Agencies/Bills MBS Notes & Bonds 10-Year Treasury

20 Interest Rates Could Emerge as a Major Factor

21 Significant Construction to Remain a Risk Factor in Some Metros

22 Apartment Vacancy vs. Construction 250 Completions Vacancy Rate 10% Completions (000s of Units) % 6% 4% 2% Average Vacancy Rate * Estimate ** Forecast Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, MPF Research * 15** 0%

23 Permit Issuance/Unit Completions (000s) Dallas-Ft. Worth Houston New York 2015 Multifamily Permit Issuance vs. Number of Completions Seattle Washington, D.C. Los Angeles Austin Phoenix Denver Unit Completions Boston Atlanta San Antonio Chicago Northern NJ Orlando Minneapolis Portland Miami Charlotte San Francisco Ft. Lauderdale Orange County Multifamily Permit Issuance Philadelphia San Jose Indianapolis Kansas City San Diego Salt Lake City West Palm Beach Columbus Jacksonville Baltimore Milwaukee Pittsburgh Cincinnati Louisville Las Vegas St. Louis Oakland Detroit Cleveland New Haven Inland Empire Sacramento * Forecast Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, MPF Research, U.S. Census Bureau

24 Apartment Construction Modest Risk 2014/2015 Completions and Job Growth Per Unit Top 10 Metros 2014* & 2015** Completions 2014* & 2015** Job Growth Jobs Per Unit 2015 Vacancy Rate** Inland Empire 2,600 64, % Las Vegas 2,400 52, % Sacramento 1,400 30, % Oakland 2,600 53, % St. Louis 2,600 50, % Detroit 1,500 25, % Cleveland 2,000 28, % Milwaukee 3,300 38, % Salt Lake City 5,200 58, % Los Angeles 18, , % U.S. Total 448,000 6,000, % * Estimate ** Forecast Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, MPF Research

25 Apartment Construction Elevated Risk 2014/2015 Completions and Job Growth Per Unit Bottom 10 Metros 2014* & 2015** Completions 2014* & 2015** Job Growth Jobs Per Unit 2015 Vacancy Rate** Northern NJ 12,300 28, % Washington, D.C. 29,900 80, % Charlotte 12,400 37, % Austin 23,000 69, % San Antonio 13,300 44, % Kansas City 5,200 17, % Columbus 6,200 24, % Seattle 22, , % Denver 16,800 83, % Boston 15,000 83, % U.S. Total 448,000 6,000, % * Estimate ** Forecast Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, MPF Research

26 Significant Construction to Remain a Risk Factor in Some Metros

27 Sales Trends Robust; Continued Macro Level Cap Rate Pressure

28 U.S. Apartment Investment Trends Transaction Activity by Price Tranche $1M-$10M $10M-$20M $20M+ 16 Total Transactions (000s) * * Trailing 12-months through 3Q Includes sales $1 million and greater Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, CoStar Group, Inc., Real Capital Analytics

29 Primary Markets Share of Apartment Dollar Volume $15M+ Trending Downward $20 Primary Market Dollar Volume Percent in Primary Markets** 70% Dollar Volume (Billions) $15 $10 $5 60% 50% 40% Percent of Dollar Volume $0 30% * Through 2Q ** Trailing 12-month average Includes sales $15 million and greater Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Real Capital Analytics, CoStar Group, Inc *

30 U.S. Apartment Price and Cap Rate Trends $125 Average Price Cap Rate 8% Average Price per Unit (000s) $100 $75 $50 7% 6% 5% Average Cap Rate $25 4% * * Trailing 12-months through 3Q Includes sales $1 million and greater Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Real Capital Analytics, CoStar Group, Inc.

31 Average Cap Rate 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% U.S. Apartment Cap Rates by Class Class A Preferred Markets Class A Class B/C 4% * * Through 3Q Includes sales $1 million and greater Assumes properties less than 10 years old at time of sales to be Class A, properties older than 10 years assumed to be Class B/C Preferred Markets Include: NY, DC, BOS, SD, LA, OC, SJ, SF, SEA Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, CoStar Group, Inc., Real Capital Analytics

32 U.S. Apartment Cap Rates by Class Primary Markets 9% Class A Class B/C Average Cap Rate 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% * * Through 3Q Includes sales $1 million and greater Assumes properties less than 10 years old at time of sales to be Class A, properties older than 10 years assumed to be Class B/C Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, CoStar Group, Inc., Real Capital Analytics

33 U.S. Apartment Cap Rates by Class Secondary/Tertiary Markets 10% Class A Class B/C Average Cap Rate 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% * * Through 3Q Includes sales $1 million and greater Assumes properties less than 10 years old at time of sales to be Class A, properties older than 10 years assumed to be Class B/C Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, CoStar Group, Inc., Real Capital Analytics

34 9% Repricing of Risk by Quality Reflected in Apartment Cap Rate Trends by Market Preferred Primary Secondary Tertiary Average Cap Rate 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% * * Through 3Q Includes sales $1 million and greater Preferred Markets Include: NY, DC, BOS, SD, LA, OC, SJ, SF, SEA Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Real Capital Analytics, CoStar Group, Inc.

35 National Apartment Rank by Metro Average Cap Rate Change Since 2010 Top 10 Metros 2010 Cap Rate 3Q 2014* Cap Rate Basis Point Change Detroit 10.9% 8.4% -250 Orlando 8.8% 6.4% -240 Salt Lake City 7.6% 5.4% -220 Minneapolis 8.5% 6.5% -200 Miami 8.4% 6.5% -190 Milwaukee 9.5% 7.6% -190 New York 6.6% 4.8% -180 Atlanta 8.3% 6.6% -170 Austin 7.7% 6.1% -160 Cincinnati 9.4% 7.8% -160 U.S. Average 7.2% 5.7% -150 * Trailing 12-months through 3Q 2014 Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, CoStar Group, Inc., Real Capital Analytics

36 2015 National Apartment Report Now Available

37 U.S. Economic and Institutional Apartment Market Overview and Outlook January 7, 2015