MARKET INSIGHT LOUISVILLE, KENTUCKY MULTIFAMILY REPORT THIRD QUARTER 2017

Transcription

1 CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD COMMERCIAL KENTUCKY LOUISVILLE MULTIFAMILY RESEARCH MARKET INSIGHT MULTIFAMILY REPORT THIRD QUARTER 217 The Cushman & Wakefield Commercial Kentucky Multifamily Research Team provides in-depth coverage of the Louisville Metropolitan Statistical Area. In addition to analyzing multifamily rent and sale trends, these reports examine employment data, key economic announcements, and development pipeline news. IN THIS EDITION RESEARCH TEAM CRAIG COLLINS SENIOR DIRECTOR MIKE KEMETHER VICE CHAIR, MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP

2 1 LOUISVILLE METRO AREA ECONOMIC EXPANSION The following are select announcements from third quarter 217: EMPLOYMENT & UNEMPLOYMENT TRENDS Glassdoor.com ranked Louisville #1 on their list of 25 Best Cities for Jobs 217. This after Forbes named Louisville #1 in the nation for manufacturing job growth. As of the end of September 217, unemployment rates in the Louisville area dropped to a low of 3.7%. Louisville s unemployment rate continues to stay below of the national average, which was 4.1% for the same period. According to Bureau of Labor Statistics data, Louisville ranks #12 in the nation for overall job growth percentage from January 216 to January 217. LOUISVILLE JOB GROWTH TRENDS EMPLOYMENT IN THOUSANDS 25 a a a Ford Motor Co. is investing $9 million to upgrade its Kentucky Truck Plant (located in Louisville s East End) to build all-new Ford Expedition and Lincoln Navigator vehicles.. Ernst & Young LLP is planning a new executive support center in downtown Louisville. This international accounting and business services firm is spending nearly $4.4 million on the new center and expects to add 125 employees. GE Appliances is adding a new production line to its washing machine manufacturing operations. The new line is part of what is expected to be a $1 million investment in new production and improvements at the company s headquarters in Appliance Park Q3 215 Q3 216 Q3 217 FORECAST GMP (% Change) -.6% -3.3% 2.3% EMPLOYMENT (% Change) 1.% 1.% 1.% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (%) 4.2% 4.1% 3.7% Forecast is 12-month outlook Source: Cushman & Wakefield Commercial Kentucky JOB GROWTH & UNEMPLOYMENT RATE % YOY BPS YOY Average Q1 employment increased by 11, jobs. Average Q1 unemployment decreased to 3.7%. EMPLOYMENT GROWTH Louisville selected by Zillow Rent Forecast as one of the Top 1 markets in the nation where apartment rents are expected to increase. Forbes Magazine ranked Louisville #1 this year in it s list of the top U.S. cities where manufacturing companies are growing workforces. Forbes reports that Louisville has seen manufacturing employment expand 3% since 211. In 216 alone, the growth was about 5.6%.

3 2 MULTIFAMILY TRENDS Occupancy rates are at 95% overall. This is up slightly from October 215 occupancy rates of 94.5%. Highest submarkets are Area 1 (at 99%), Area 8 (at 97%) and Area 9 (at 98%). Average rents for 1 BR units is at $768/mo. with average rents for 2 BR units at $869/mo. While rental rates throughout the Louisville Metro remain relatively stable, both 1 and 2 BR unit rentals are up from April 215 figures. DEVELOPMENT / INVENTORY More than 1,29 units were completed in 216, and nearly 3,3 units are under construction in the Louisville Metro area. Additionally, approximately 6,3 units are planned throughout the Metro area, with the largest percentage of proposed units (27%) in Area 5. However, it is worth noting that there are currently proposed units in every submarket in the Louisville Metro area. 95% Average Occupancy increase of.5% from 1/215 8% and 9% Respective Average Rental Rate for 1 and 2 BR units from 4/215 DEMOGRAPHIC FUNDAMENTALS The MSA population is projected to grow by 18% between 21 and 24. The projected gain of households is 21% for the same period. HISTORICAL & FORECASTED METRO RENT GROWTH RATES Effective rents in the Louisville Metro market have grown from $863/ mo. in Q3 216 to $887/mo. in Q These rents are forecast to be at $915/mo. by Q LOUISVILLE RENT GROWTH RATES POPULATION PERCENT RENTER HOUSEHOLDS 2: 881,48 21: 952, : 988, : 1,25,383 Current%: 34 Current #: 149,129 MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME Current: $64,27 MULTIFAMILY FORECAST The following are Cushman & Wakefield s projections over the near term: Source: AXIOMetrics RENTS Forecast is 12-month outlook VACANCY PIPELINE % GROWTH

4 3 INVESTMENT ACTIVITY Multifamily investment activity for 217 year-to-date in the Louisville MSA is tracking close to the record sales of 214 for properties priced above $1M. Regional and national apartment funds have been the largest active players for acquiring multifamily in the Louisville marketplace in 217. Private capital also continues to play a major role in the B & C market. HISTORICAL SALES VOLUME PRICING & CAP RATES The market s mid-quartile spread is 5.6% to 6.3%, holding steady with trailing 12 month trends from the last quarter. The average cap rate decreased by 26 BPS, despite the increase in interest rates. Source: Real Capital Analytics, Commercial Kentucky Cushman & Wakefield Research NOTABLE SALES Class A Passco Companies sold Legends of Indian Springs (212 units) to Mount Auburn Multifamily for $142K per unit. The asset is located in the East Brownsboro/Westport Road Corridor. Class B Holly Hills Apartments, LLC sold Holly Hills Apartments, (94 units) located in the Frankfort Avenue/Brownsboro Road Corridor to Urban Public Companies. The sale price was $52K per unit. Class B Stratford Asset Management sold Breckinridge Square Apartments (294 units) to RealSource Properties for $87K per unit. This property is located in the Mid-Bardstown Road/Taylorsville Road Corridor. Source: Real Capital Analytics, Commercial Kentucky Cushman & Wakefield Research

5 4 SUBMARKET OVERVIEW SELECT CBD SUBMARKET NEWS RENTS & VACANCY BY SUBMARKET Dixie Hwy CBD Frankfort Ave/Brownsboro Rd East Brownsboro/Westport Rd $66 $1,25 $1,5 $1, Dixie Hwy CBD Frankfort Ave/Brownsboro Rd East Brownsboro/Westport Rd 1% 1% 6% 6% Edwards Companies Highland Station Apartments are nearing completion and have begun pre-leasing. Also pre-leasing in the CBD are The Residences at Omni Louisville (developed by Omni Hotels) and Main & Clay (developed by Bristol Development). Shelbyville Rd $1,25 Shelbyville Rd 7% Mid-Bardstown Rd/Taylorsville Rd So. Bardstown Rd So. Preston Hwy New Cut Rd $875 $89 $85 $76 Mid-Bardstown Rd/Taylorsville Rd So. Bardstown Rd So. Preston Hwy New Cut Rd 6% 4% 3% 2% The $56M NuLu apartment complex development project at 7 E. Main Street is set to break ground by year end. Flournoy Development expects construction of the 27-unit complex to take a little over a year to complete. Source: Integra Realty Research UNDER CONSTRUCTION BY SUBMARKET Cincinnati-based Capital Investment Group has begun construction on the mixed use development at 4th Street and Guthrie Street, which will include 237 apartment units. Construction is scheduled to be complete April of next year Germantown s new Bradford Mill Lofts is just finishing the transformation from an industrial textiles mill into some very upscale urban lofts. Property managers report that they are swamped with tour requests and leasing inquiries. Source: Cushman & Wakefield Commercial Kentucky Research Note: Submarkets are defined by Integra Realty Research

6 About Cushman & Wakefield Cushman & Wakefield is a leading global real estate services firm that helps clients transform the way people work, shop, and live. Our 45, employees in more than 7 countries help occupiers and investors optimize the value of their real estate by combining our global perspective and deep local knowledge with an impressive platform of real estate solutions. Cushman & Wakefield is among the largest commercial real estate services firms with revenue of $6 billion across core services of agency leasing, asset services, capital markets, facility services (C&W Services), global occupier services, investment & asset management (DTZ Investors), project & development services, tenant representation, and valuation & advisory. 217 marks the 1-year anniversary of the Cushman & Wakefield brand. 1 years of taking our clients ideas and putting them into action. To learn more, visit or on Twitter. Craig Collins Senior Director Cushman & Wakefield Commercial Kentucky 333 East Main Street, Suite 51 Louisville, KY 422 Tel: ccollins@commercialkentucky.com Mike Kemether Vice Chair, Multifamily Advisory Group Cushman & Wakevield 55 Ivan Allen Jr. Blvd., Suite 7 Atlanta, GA 338 Tel: mike.kemether@cushwake.com Copyright 217 Cushman & Wakefield. All rights reserved. The information contained within this report is gathered from multiple sources considered to be reliable. The information may contain errors or omissions and is presented without any warranty or representations as to its accuracy. commercialkentucky.com