Housing Price Forecasts. Illinois and Chicago PMSA, August 2016

Transcription

1 Housing Price Forecasts Illinois and Chicago PMSA, August 2016 Presented To Illinois Association of Realtors From R E A L Regional Economics Applications Laboratory, Institute of Government and Public Affairs University of Illinois August 24, 2016 Contact: Geoffrey Hewings (hewings@illinois.edu) Xian Fang (fang21@illinois.edu)

2 Housing Forecast August Housing Price Forecast: Illinois and Chicago PMSA, August 2016 The Housing Market In July, median prices continue to experience positive growth while sales experienced the first negative annual change in ,108 houses were sold in Illinois, down 14.9% from a month ago and down by 6.8% from a year ago. In the Chicago PMSA, 11,716 houses were sold, down 15.5% from a month ago and down 7.3% from a year ago. The median price was $199,000 in Illinois, up 4.7% from July last year; the comparable figure for the Chicago PMSA was $238,000, up 5.8% from this time last year. In July, for the Chicago PMSA, the percentage of foreclosed sales (e.g. REOs) among the total sales was 9.7%, the lowest July reading since ,509 regular sales were made, 6.5% less than last year. 1,132 foreclosed properties were sold, 15.1% less than last year. The median price was $250,000 for regular property sales, 0.8% more than last year; the comparable figure for the foreclosed properties was $149,450, up 15.0% from this time last year. Sale prices in July 2008 have been adjusted to 2016 values to enable calculation of the housing price recovery taking into account the effects of inflation. In Illinois, the July 2008 median sale price was $195,450 (in $2008) and $214,023 (in $2016); the current price level was 93% of the 2008 level after adjusting (102% before adjusting). In the Chicago PMSA, the July 2008 median sale price is $254,925 (in $2008) and $279,149 (in $2016); the comparable figure for price recovery in July 2016 is 85% after adjustment (93% before adjusting). According to average annual growth rates of prices in the past months, it could take about 1.3~1.9 years (15~23 months) for Illinois and 2.8~3.7 years (33~45 months) for the Chicago PMSA to recover to the 2008 levels. The sales forecast for August, September and October 2016 suggests negative growth both on a yearly basis and a monthly basis. Annually for Illinois, the three-month average forecasts point to decrease by 3.8% to 5.1%; the comparative figures for the Chicago PMSA will be a decrease by 3.4% to 4.7%. On a monthly basis, the three-month average sales are forecast to decrease by 6.6%-9.0% for Illinois and decrease by 7.3%-9.9% for the Chicago PMSA. On the other hand, the pending index, as a leading indicator, indicates a positive annual growth and negative monthly growth in sales. The pending home sales index is (2008=100) in Illinois, down 5.8% from last month and up 5.0% from a year ago. In the Chicago PMSA, the comparable figure is 207.0, down 5.2% from a month ago and up 9.7% from a year ago. The median price forecast indicates moderate annual growth in both Illinois and the Chicago PMSA for August, September and October. In Illinois, the median price is forecast to rise by 7.5% in August, 6.9% in September and 6.9% in October. For the Chicago PMSA, the comparable figures are 6.5% in August, 4.7% in September and 4.0% in October. As a complement to the median housing price index (HPI), the REAL HPI 1 forecasts similar growth trend for Illinois but stronger growth for the Chicago PMSA. In Illinois, the REAL HPI (Jan 2008=1) is forecast to rise by 7.7% in August, 6.6% in September and 5.8% in October. The comparable figures for the Chicago PMSA are 9.8% in August, 11.1% in September and 11.8% 1 REAL HPI was developed by Esteban Lopez and Minshu Du. Contact us for further details.

3 Housing Forecast August in October. REAL HPI takes housing characteristics into account and constructs comparable baskets of homes for each month. In July 2016, 1,546 houses were newly filed for foreclosure in the Chicago PMSA (down 11.0% and 4.9% respectively from a year and a month ago). 1,786 foreclosures were completed 2 (up 0.85% and down 7.1% respectively from a year and a month ago). As of July 2016, there are 39,672 homes at some stage of foreclosure the foreclosure inventory. The monthly average net flows of foreclosures (foreclosure inflows - outflows) were 60 in the past 6 months, 22 in the last 12 months and -52 in the last 24 months. As the house prices climbs, housing affordability has returned to be a potential concern. While only 2 percent of the US housing markets were not affordable as in the first quarter of 2015, the comparable figure has risen to 9 percent as in the first quarter of This is according to the RealtyTrac comparing the housing affordability to the historic norms as in the first quarter of However, according to the RealtyTrac, Illinois counties have been ranked among the most affordable counties in the first quarter of Cook County ranked the second among most-populated counties nationwide and with more affordable housing compared to its historic norms. Rock Island County in the Davenport-Moline-Rock Island metro area, comparing with peer counties in 2016 Q1, is the fifth most affordable county across the country using the criterion that a buyer needs to pay 12.3% of average wages to buy a median priced home in an area. The Housing Market Current Condition In July, median prices continue to experience positive growth while sales declined both monthly and annually. 16,108 houses were sold in Illinois, down 14.9% from a month ago and down by 6.8% from a year ago. In the Chicago PMSA, 11,716 houses were sold, down 15.5% from a month ago and down 7.3% from a year ago. The median price was $199,000 in Illinois, up 4.7% from July last year; the comparable figure for the Chicago PMSA was $238,000, up 5.8% from this time last year. (Reference: Illinois and Chicago PMSA Total Home Sales and Median Home Sales Price figures; Forecast for August 2016 report table) In July, for the Chicago PMSA, the percentage of foreclosed sales (e.g. REOs) among the total sales was 9.7%, the lowest July reading since ,509 regular sales were made, 6.5% less than last year. 1,132 foreclosed properties were sold, 15.1% less than last year. The median price was $250,000 for regular property sales, 0.8% more than last year; the comparable figure for the foreclosed properties was $149,450, up 15.0% from this time last year. In July, at the latest average annual pending sales rate, Illinois had enough housing inventory for 4.8 months 3 (down from 5.9 months a year ago). In the Chicago PMSA, the comparable figure was 3.6 months (down from 4.6 months a year ago). Months of supply for homes in all price ranges but Above $700K experienced declines both in Illinois and the Chicago PMSA. (Reference: Illinois and Chicago PMSA Annual Months Supply by Price Range figures) 2 Including cancelled foreclosures and auctions 3 Months supply of inventory is defined as inventory of homes for sale at the end of the month divided by the average monthly pending sales in the last twelve months.

4 Housing Forecast August In July, the market shares of homes priced at the low end (<$100K) experienced the largest change compared to a year ago. In Illinois, the market share for homes less than $100K decreased to 17.6% from 32.0% a year ago; the comparative figure for the Chicago PMSA showed a decrease to 9.3% from 12.1% a year ago. (Reference: Illinois and Chicago PMSA Price Stratification figures) The Housing Market Forecast and Future Condition The median price forecast indicates moderate annual growth in both Illinois and the Chicago PMSA for August, September and October. In Illinois, the median price is forecast to rise by 7.5% in August, 6.9% in September and 6.9% in October. For the Chicago PMSA, the comparable figures are 6.5% in August, 4.7% in September and 4.0% in October. (Reference: Forecast for August 2016 report table) As a complement to the median housing price index (HPI), the REAL HPI 4 forecasts similar growth trend for Illinois but stronger growth for the Chicago PMSA. In Illinois, the REAL HPI (Jan 2008=1) is forecast to rise by 7.7% in August, 6.6% in September and 5.8% in October. The comparable figures for the Chicago PMSA are 9.8% in August, 11.1% in September and 11.8% in October. REAL HPI takes housing characteristics into account and constructs comparable baskets of homes for each month. (Reference: Housing Price Index) The sales forecast for August, September and October 2016 suggests negative growth both on a yearly basis and a monthly basis. Annually for Illinois, the three-month average forecasts point to decrease by 3.8% to 5.1%; the comparative figures for the Chicago PMSA will be a decrease by 3.4% to 4.7%. On a monthly basis, the three-month average sales are forecast to decrease by 6.6%-9.0% for Illinois and decrease by 7.3%-9.9% for the Chicago PMSA. (Reference: Forecast for August 2016 report table) The pending home sales index 5 is a leading indicator based on contract signings. This July, the number of homes put under contract was greater than last year but less than the previous month. The pending home sales index is (2008=100) in Illinois, down 5.8% from last month and up 5.0% from a year ago. In the Chicago PMSA, the comparable figure is 207.0, down 5.2% from a month ago and up 9.7% from a year ago. (Reference: Illinois and Chicago PMSA Pending Home Sales Index figure) In July 2016, 1,546 houses were newly filed for foreclosure in the Chicago PMSA (down 11.0% and 4.9% respectively from a year and a month ago). 1,786 foreclosures were completed 6 (up 0.85% and down 7.1% respectively from a year and a month ago). As of July 2016, there are 39,672 homes at some stage of foreclosure the foreclosure inventory. The monthly average net flows of foreclosures (foreclosure inflows - outflows) were 60 in the past 6 months, 22 in the last 12 months and -52 in the last 24 months. (Reference: Chicago PMSA Foreclosure Inflows and Outflows, and Inventory figures). The Economy In July 2016, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Employment Situation report, the national unemployment rate was little changed at 4.9% and nonfarm payroll jobs 4 REAL HPI was developed by Esteban Lopez and Minshu Du. Contact us for further details. 5 The base level (100) of pending home sales is the average pending home sales of year Including cancelled foreclosures and auctions

5 Housing Forecast August experienced gain of 255,000 jobs. The employment growth was led by professional and business services (70,000), followed by health care (43,000) and financial activities (18,000). In July 2016, according to the Illinois Department of Employment Security (IDES) news release, the Illinois unemployment rate decreased to 5.8% and 11,600 non-farm payroll jobs were added. Though the number of unemployed workers (-6.4%) decreased, the decreasing unemployment rate can be primarily traced to the decrease in the labor force (-0.5%). In June 2016, the one-year-ahead forecast for Illinois indicates that the non-farm employment will increase at a rate between 0.19% and 0.45%, corresponding to job gains between 11,400 and 27,300. Six out of ten sectors are forecast with positive job growth: construction (0.51%; 1,100), financial activities (0.84%; 3,200), professional and business services (3.21%; 29,900), education and health (0.3%; 2,700), leisure and hospitality (1.1%; 6,500), and other services (0.16%; 400). Longer-term Outlook In July, one consumer sentiment index remained unchanged while the other decreased. According to The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, it was little changed and stands at The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index decreased to 90.0 from 93.5 last month; according to their survey, consumers pessimism was related to the uncertainties about the global economy and the presidential election. In July, Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) increased to 86.5 from All six components of HPSI increased and indicated a positive look on the housing market activities, including Good time to buy, Good time to sell, Home prices will go up, Mortgage rates will go down, confidence about not losing job and household income is significant higher. This index uses information from their National Housing Survey collecting consumers feeling and opinions on home purchasing, directions and conditions of the housing market, finance conditions and the job market. The Chicago Business Activity Index (CBAI) slightly increased to 93.7 in June from 93.6 in May. The increase is attributed to the job growth in the construction sector and to the improved retail activities in the Chicago area In July, median prices continued to experience positive growth while sales recorded their first negative annual change in 2016, said Geoffrey J.D. Hewings, director of the Regional Economics Applications Laboratory at the University of Illinois. However, median prices are forecast to have positive annual growth over the next three months. In addition, the percentage of foreclosed sales among total sales was 9.7%, the lowest July reading since 2009.

6 Housing Forecast August Forecast for August 2016 report

7 Housing Forecast August Median Prices and Recovery Illinois Chicago PMSA [$2008] [$2016] [$2008] [$2016] July 2008 Median Price $195,450 $214,023 $254,925 $279,149 July 2016 Median Price $181,731 $199,000 $217,347 $238,000 Price Ratio (July 16/July 08) Adjusted 0.93 Adjusted 0.85 Unadjusted 1.02 Unadjusted 0.93 Recovery Forecasts using Annually Growth Rates Illinois Chicago PMSA Annual Years to Years to Recovery Rate Recovery Rate* Recover** Recover Current Month 3.8% % 3.4 Past 3 months 4.7% % 3.7 Past 6 months 5.5% % 3.1 Past 9 months 5.9% % 2.8 Past 12 months 5.6% % 2.8 *Annual recovery rate is the average of annual change rates in past months ** Years to recover is calculated using the following formula: Price July2016 *(1+recovery rate)^years=price July2008. Prices used in the formula are inflation adjusted. The recovery rate is applied as a constant annual change rate to recoup the differences between the current month and its corresponding month in 2008.

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