The Real Estate Market Report
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1 The Real Estate Report 3rd quarter 2011 Prepared by: Candace Adams, President, Prudential Connecticut Realty Terence Beaty, Director, New Homes & Land, Prudential Connecticut Realty Connecticut Segments Have Varied Results Connecticut s residential real estate market is comprised of three distinct parts: single family, condominium, and the rental market, which consists of both single family homes and condominiums. Today, all parts of the market are behaving differently. During the third quarter, sales of single-family homes have slowed another 9% compared to this time last year. That is a smaller decline than during the second quarter when sales were down 17.5% while median prices had only dropped 1.8%, indicating the possibility of price stabilization. Unit sales of condominiums were 14.6% lower than the previous year during the third quarter, another slower decline than the second quarter of this year when they were down 24.5%. Sale prices of condominiums are down just 5.4% from a year ago. The rental market, however, is robust, making strides with a 4.2% increase in the number of leases executed and a 2.6% increase in rental prices. Pending Sales The second quarter of this year was the strongest since the first quarter of 2010 for pending sales contracts. The third quarter, however, has shown a drop in activity indicating a seasonal adjustment due to reduced Units Months sales activity during the summer months. Pending sales of homes were slightly lower in all but three counties. Hartford County saw a 9.8% increase, New Haven County was up by 7.8% and Tolland increased by 5%. Pending Pending Contracts months supply of inventory sales for condominiums were lower this quarter as well, with the exception of New London County (+21.2%) and Middlesex County (+8.2%). Closed Sales Sales of single-family homes have
2 slowed their pace of decline from the second quarter, when home sales dropped by 17.5%. They are now down by just 9% from last year; a sign that the market may be in the early stages of recovery. Sales of condominiums, which were down 24% in the second quarter, were down by just 14.6% in the third, indicating a much slower rate of decline than earlier in the year. While most counties saw a decline, two counties saw gains; New London was up 4.3% and Windham was up 7.7%. It is likely that the condominium market has been hurt by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgage rule changes that took effect in 2009, making it more difficult for buyers and condominium associations to close transactions. For buyers, increased down-payment requirements and tighter credit are to blame. For condominium associations, changes in minimum reserve amounts and insurance are changing governance practices and raising costs for owners. It will take time for these rule changes to be relaxed or more effectively implemented. Current Inventory The inventory of available homes for sale fell to an average of 8.3 months of supply for single family homes during the third quarter, down from 10.1 months last year. This indicates a substantial decline of 17.6% and is a good sign for the market; homes are taking less time to sell and there were more sales relative to the number of deposits and inventory on the market. For condominiums, it would still take up to 9.9 months for inventory levels to sell off, a slight increase over last year when the number of months stood at 9.2. Median s Single family home prices stabilized during the third quarter of Median prices of homes slipped just 1.8% compared to last year and were up 0.7% from the second quarter. The median price for condominiums was up by 1.9% from the second quarter this year, still down by 4.1% from last year. Both of these market segments have seen positive changes during the last two quarters. Year over year the average number of days required to sell a home continued median price permits issued to rise, but at a slower pace than during the last few years. Single family homes took an average of 153 days on the market, an increase of 5.8% over the previous year. Condominiums took 166 days; a rise of 3.4%. A stable market generally requires 100 to 120 days for properties to sell. Rental As much of the market struggles, the rental market remains strong. According to MLS statistics, there have been 9,862 leases signed for both single family and condominiums this year; a 4.2% increase over the same
3 period last year. Rental prices are higher as well; standing at $1,237 per month on average, which is up from last year by 2.6%. As the rental market continues to grow, there will be an increased need for new rental housing units. We have observed sporadic construction of new rental units in Connecticut, but the supply could fall short of demand, causing rents to continue their increase. Historically, higher rents, combined with other market factors have caused a shift back to homeownership, which could revitalize the housing market. New Housing Permits Applications for new housing permits have continued to drop in Connecticut during the current year. By the end of August 2010, 2,305 permits had been issued and at year s end they totaled 3,385. This year, only 1,740 permits have been issued to date, which is a decrease of 24.5%. We are forecasting a total of approximately 2,468 permits; a reduction of 27% from Over time, a lack of new construction in our market may cause Connecticut to be under built just as the market begins to recover. A recent report offered by housingeconomics.com suggests that our state may be under built by as much as 12,700 units during the coming years. Luxury Connecticut s luxury residential market, considered to be those transactions over two million dollars, has seen improvement in many towns. Statewide, unit sales of homes over $2 Million increased 7.5% by the end of the third quarter over last year. There was a corresponding increase of 7.3% in the total sales volume in this category as well. Another indication of market improvement for this sector has been a decrease in days on market by 6%. Towns with higher dollar sales this year include Danbury ($3.5M), Avon ($5M), Glastonbury ($4.5M), Roxbury ($7.7M), Old Saybrook, Lyme, Old Lyme and Stonington (all over $3M). Sales of luxury homes in Greenwich ($4.5 Million and above) increased dramatically in 2011 as well. By the end of the third quarter, unit sales had increased by 30% in Greenwich over the previous year with a corresponding increase in volume of 17%. Foreclosures There were 1,432 new foreclosure filings in Connecticut in August This is down 31% from a year ago but up sharply from July when only 647 filings occurred. Nationally, when compared to the total number of houses in the State, Connecticut ranks 28th in foreclosures (one filing per every 1,010 households). By comparison, New Hampshire had a rate of one filing per every 638 households, Massachusetts a rate of one for every 718 households, and Rhode Island a rate of one for every 828 households. New rules are being proposed in Washington that could affect the foreclosure process and positively affect our market next year. Summary As we enter the fourth quarter of 2011, each market segment will continue to behave independently. The single family market, lead in part by the luxury sector, should continue to experience price stabilization during the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of The rental market will likely level off as rising rents, low mortgage rates, and stable home values encourage buyers to reenter the market. Condominiums may continue to struggle as financing concerns persist for buyers and condominium associations adapt to new regulations. Two major factors that will continue to influence Connecticut s housing market are a lack of consumer confidence and fewer employment opportunities. On the whole, our state is faring better than some of the other major markets, but our path to recovery is still challenged. Low mortgage rates and stable prices will stimulate sales for the remainder of the year as first time homebuyers continue to be the majority of homebuyers taking advantage of the low interest rates and rising cost of renting. By Candace Adams President, Prudential Connecticut Realty By Terence Beaty Director, New Homes & Land Division Prudential Connecticut Realty Information herein is based in whole or part on data supplied by area Multiple Listing Services (MLS), for residential property transactions as of September 30th, Data maintained by an MLS may not reflect all real estate activity in the market. It is deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
4 County & State Roll-Up Single-Family County % Change Sales Sales % Change Fairfield % $481, $497, % % Hartford % $230, $226, % % Litchfield % $239, $225, % % Middlesex % $262, $263, % % New Haven % $228, $225, % % New London % $220, $209, % % Tolland % $235, $225, % % Windham % $169, $159, % % State of CT % $260, $257, % % Fairfield County Single-Family Community % Change Sales Sales % Change Bethel % $315, $328, % % Bridgeport % $155, $134, % % Brookfield % $410, $370, % % Danbury % $285, $269, % % Darien % $1,325, $1,400, % % Easton % $610, $671, % % Fairfield % $525, $567, % % Greenwich % $1,750, $1,695, % % Monroe % $400, $370, % % New Canaan % $1,754, $1,946, % % New Fairfield % $350, $337, % % Newtown % $422, $400, % % Norwalk % $445, $426, % % Redding % $618, $595, % % Ridgefield % $707, $670, % % Shelton % $320, $302, % % Sherman % $380, $352, % % Stamford % $600, $550, % % Stratford % $246, $222, % % Trumbull % $379, $360, % % Weston % $835, $750, % % Westport % $1,115, $1,095, % % Wilton % $790, $822, % %
5 County & State Roll-Up Condominiums County % Change Sales Sales % Change Fairfield % $274, $240, % % Hartford % $172, $168, % % Litchfield % $129, $120, % % Middlesex % $150, $152, % % New Haven % $150, $145, % % New London % $174, $145, % % Tolland % $149, $150, % % Windham % $123, $132, % % State of CT % $177, $169, % % Fairfield County Condominiums Community % Change Sales Sales % Change Bethel % $258, $422, % % Bridgeport % $87, $68, % % Brookfield % $161, $200, % % Danbury % $217, $195, % % Darien % $450, $550, % % Fairfield % $387, $367, % % Greenwich % $592, $600, % % Monroe % $182, $175, % % New Canaan % $643, $730, % % New Fairfield % $255, $213, % % Newtown % $428, $276, % % Norwalk % $308, $262, % % Ridgefield % $482, $305, % % Shelton % $259, $322, % % Stamford % $303, $275, % % Stratford % $182, $150, % % Trumbull % $314, $330, % % Westport % $682, $570, % % Wilton % $350, $335, % %
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