National Housing Trends
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1 National Housing Trends
2 34% America s Choice of Best Long Term Investment 26% 17% 15% 6% Real Estate Stocks / Mutual Funds Gold Savings Accounts / CDs Bonds Gallup 2018
3 Total Existing Home Sales in thousands 5,367 5,560 5,240 5,441 5,350 5,350 MBA FannieMae NAR
4 Housing Affordability 197 Index 1990 to Today Years when distressed properties dominated the market National Association of Realtors
5 1,400 1,200 1, Overbuilt during Housing Boom Residential New Construction The market needs more new homes! Underbuilt Housing need since the Bust Census Bureau
6 U.S. Northeast Midwest South West -2.6% -7.0% -4.3% -5.6% EXISTING Home Sales Y-O-Y by region -15.4% NAR 1/2019
7 4.5% 1.5% -0.3% -4.8% -3.7% -12.2% % Change in Sales from last year by Price Range $0-100K $ K $ K $ K $750K-1M $1M+ % -12.2% -4.8% 1.5% -0.3% 4.5% -3.7% NAR 1/2019
8 Increase in Home Values nar.realtor
9 Year-Over-Year Change in Price CoreLogic
10 Case Shiller Month-Over-Month Price Changes Metropolitan Area Monthly Change Atlanta.17% Boston.1% Charlotte.3% Chicago -.3% Cleveland -.5% Dallas 0% Denver -.3% Detroit 0% Las Vegas.3% Los Angeles.1% Miami.1% Metropolitan Area3 Monthly Change Minneapolis -.1% New York.4% Phoenix.7% Portland -.6% San Diego -.1% San Francisco -.7% Seattle -1.1% Tampa 0% Washington, D.C. 0% All 20 Metros 0% U.S. National.1%
11 What Will Home Prices Do in 2019? projections of 100 economists, market analysts, and real estate experts BY PERCENTAGE BY RAW NUMBERS 4% 2% 94 94% 4 2 Appreciate Depreciate No Change Appreciate Depreciate No Change
12 Projected Home Price % Appreciation Going Forward Source HPES Zelman & Assoc N/A N/A MBA N/A Freddie Mac N/A N/A NAR N/A N/A Fannie Mae N/A N/A
13 Forecasted Year-Over-Year % Change in Price CoreLogic
14 Average Days on the Market NAR
15 Seller Traffic NAR
16 Buyer Traffic NAR
17 Foot Traffic indicator of future sales January February March April May June July August September October November December NAR 11/2018
18 Historic Mortgage Rates by Decade Decade Average Rate 1970s 8.86% 1980s 12.7% 1990s 8.12% 2000s 6.29% Freddie Mac
19 Mortgage Rate Projections Quarter Freddie Mac Fannie Mae MBA NAR Average of All Four Q Q Q Q /2019
20 Mortgage Rates Freddie Mac 30-Year Fixed Rate Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q2 - Actual - Projected Rate Q Q Q Q Q Q4 Freddie Mac
21 Increasing Mortgage Rates Make A Significant Difference In Home Affordability Amount Of Mortgage 3.5% Mortgage 30-Year Cost 5% Mortgage 30-Year Cost 8% Mortgage 30-Year Cost $200,000 $898 $323,280 $1,073 $386,280 $1,467 $528,120 $300,000 $1,347 $484,920 $1,610 $579,600 $2,201 $792,360 $400,000 $1,796 $646,560 $2,147 $772,920 $2,935 $1,056,600 $500,000 $2,245 $808,200 $2,684 $966,240 $3,668 $1,320,480 $1 million $4,490 $1,616,400 $5,368 $1,932,480 $7,337 $2,641,320
22 Greater Metro Atlanta Market January 2019 Report With Results Through December 2018
23 Metro Atlanta Homes Sold Annual Closed Units 1.5% Higher Than Annual Pending Units Up 1.8%. Annual Closed Volume Up 7.4%.
24 Metro Atlanta Closings 9000 Prior Year Current Month December Closings Down 5% Compared To November Closings December 2018 Closings Down 11.3% Compared To December 2017
25 Metro Atlanta Closings December 2018 (Number Of Transactions By Price) % Of Transactions In $100K-$500K Price Range < $100K $100K-$200K $200K-$500K $500K-$1 mil $1 mil - $2 Mil $2 Mil +
26 Metro Atlanta Closed Units By Price Point December 2018 Compared To December < $100K $100K-$200K $200K-$500K $500K-$1 mil $1 mil - $2 Mil $2 Mil +
27 Listed Inventory January 2012 December 2018 Residential Detached, Metro Atlanta Inventory Up 24% From Recent Bottom Of Feb Inventory Down 6.7% From Last Month, Up 9.1% Compared To Last Year
28 7270 Metro Atlanta New Listings New Listings Up 10.8% Compared to Last Year. Down 27.1% From Last Month. Annual New Listings Up 4.1%.
29 Months of Inventory Change The Market Strategy LESS THAN 6 MONTHS BETWEEN 6-7 MONTHS GREATER THAN 7 MONTHS SELLERS MARKET Home prices will appreciate NEUTRAL MARKET Home prices will only appreciate with inflation BUYERS MARKET Home prices will depreciate
30 Metro Atlanta Months of Inventory (December 2018, Based On Closed Sales) Months Supply Is Considered Normal Market < $100K $100K-$200K $200K-$500K $500K-1 Mil $1 Mil - $2 Mil $2 Mil + Total Metro Atlanta Months Of Inventory Is 3.8 Months
31 Metro Atlanta Monthly Average Sale Prices $350 $300 $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 $0 ASP $309,000 In December. ASP $309,000 Last Month. Up 6.9% From Last December.
32 Metro Atlanta Annual Average Sale Prices $261 $268 $209 $189 $190 $176 $183 $229 $250 $266 $276 $289 $ Annual ASP Up 74% From Bottom Of 2011
33 Case-Shiller Index For Metro Atlanta Jan 2010 Through Oct 2018 (Reported December 18, 2018) Home Values Up 75% From Recent Bottom Of March 2012.
34 Case-Shiller Gain/ Loss For Metro Atlanta Comparisons Based On The Latest Case Shiller Index Compared To The Average Index For The Year Property Was Purchased. Year Property Bought Gain/ Loss Year Property Bought Gain/ Loss % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % 2018 YTD 1.97% Case Shiller Index For Metro Atlanta - October 2018 As Reported December 18, Micro Local Markets And Price Points May Have Significantly Different Outcomes.
35 Case-Shiller Home Values For Metro Atlanta Recent Bottom Was March Metro Average Home Values Back To Normal Trend Line.
36
37 Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Georgia Properties
38 BHHS KW-AP ATL Comm MB HNR CB AFH Annual Closed Units 2018 FMLS Counties + Southern Crescent 12,116 11,339 7,511 5,449 5,269 4,589 3,861 Information Provided By Trendgraphix and BHHS GP Internal Reports.
39 BHHS KW-AP HNR AFH ATL Comm CB MB $4 Billion Annual Closed Volume 2018 FMLS Counties + Southern Crescent ($ Volume in Billions) $3.1 Billion $2.4 Billion $2.3 Billion $2 Billion $1.49 Billion $1.28 Billion Information Provided By Trendgraphix and BHHS GP Internal Reports.
40 Georgia Economic & Housing Trends
41 Top State For Business Site Selection Magazine 6 Years in a Row!
42 Buyers Moving To Atlanta! Here is the Top 10 List including previous rank: 1. Atlanta (1) 2. Phoenix (4) 3. Tampa/Sarasota (2) 4. Dallas/Fort Worth (3) 5. Orlando (5) 6. Denver (7) 7. Houston (8) 8. Seattle (6) 9. Las Vegas (10) 10.Chicago (9) Penske Truck Rental published their latest moving destination list and Atlanta was ranked #1 for the 6 th year in a row. The trend of moving to the sunbelt has returned. Desirable attributes that help Metro Atlanta include a business friendly environment, low cost of living for a metro area, airport, moderate weather with 4 seasons and a high quality of life.
43 Baby Boomers Are Coming To Be Close To Their Children & Grandchildren. Rank of Share Total Population Under Dallas 6,144, Atlanta 5,271, Phoenix 4,179, Denver 2,466, Riverside 4,081, Houston 5,629, Portland 2,174, Seattle 3,309, Sacramento 2,091, Washington 5,306,125 Metro 14 Atlanta 3 Has 23 The: Los Angeles 12,875, San Diego 2,974,859 #2 Population 8 14 Age San Francisco 4,203, Orlando 2,032, Minneapolis #5 Population Under 20 3,208, Chicago 9,522, New York 18,815, Boston 4,482, Cincinnati 2,134, Baltimore 2,668, Detroit 4,467, Philadelphia 5,827, St. Louis 2,802, Miami 5,413, Tampa 2,723, Cleveland 2,096, Source :Census Bureau Pittsburgh 2,355,
44 Rustbelt To Sunbelt
45 Population & Employment Growth Trends
46 Population By County Atlanta Regional Commission
47 Population & Employment Growth Trends U.S. Conference of Mayors Report predicts that Metro Atlanta will be the 6 th largest city in the nation by Metro Atlanta will grow from 5.8 million residents to 8.6 million residents. That means 2.8 million people will move to our area! This is great news for our long-term real estate values!
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