Understanding and Utilizing Today s Real Estate Data

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1 Understanding and Utilizing Today s Real Estate Data

2 MATT Dollinger Why Matt?

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4 KCM Divided into Three Sections

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6 Existing Home Sales S&P Case Shiller 10/2013

7 Pending Home Sales 100 = Historically Healthy Level NAR 10/2013

8 Regional Home Prices (year-over-year) FHFA Q HPI Report

9 State Home Prices (year-over-year) FHFA Q HPI Report

10 The emerging slowdown in home purchases appears to be largely seasonal. Thomas Popik Research Director for the HousingPulse survey

11 Months Inventory of Homes for Sale 5-6 Months = Normal Market Inventory NAR 10/2013

12 Year-over-Year Inventory Levels NAR 10/2013

13 Year-over-Year Change in Prices S&P Case Shiller 10/2013

14 Asking home prices give us the first look at where home sale prices are headed, and they point to a slowdown. After rising rapidly in the first half of 2013, asking Affordability prices is still in good two compared thirds to of any the time largest over the metros last 50 years. are cooling. In fact, asking prices are falling not just rising more slowly in 11 of the 100 largest metros, the most markets to see prices slip in six months. Jed Kolko Trulia s Chief Economist

15 The rapid price gains of the last year cannot be sustained and we expect the pace to decline substantially A Affordability is still good compared slower to pace any time is over a the positive last 50 years. for housing demand and will help to keep affordability from further eroding. Moody s Analytics

16 If home values continued to rise as they have, relatively unchecked, we would almost certainly be headed into another bubble cycle, and nobody Affordability wants is still good that This compared to any moderation time over the last 50 should years. help consumers feel more at ease in their decisions to buy and sell, and will help keep the market balanced. Stan Humphries Chief Economist for Zillow

17 "I define a bubble as a time when people have extravagant expectations, and the expectations are driving home price increases. We don't have Affordability the is still mindset good compared of earlier to any time this over the century last 50 years. Affordability is still good compared to any time over the last 50 years." Robert Shiller Nobel Prize Winning Economist

18 ta per ˈtāpər/ Verb to diminish or reduce

19 Rate Movement 30 Year Fixed Rate Fed announces not to taper bond purchases Decrease in mortgage rates since Fed announcement Freddie Mac 10/2013

20 The MBA believes rates will keep pushing upward, going well above 5%. HousingWire 10/2013

21 Mortgage Rate Projections Analyst Projected Rate 4Q 2014 Fannie Mae 5.0% National Assoc of Realtors 5.4% Freddie Mac 5.1% Mortgage Bankers Assoc 5.0%

22 RATE Buyer s Purchasing Power 6.00 $ 2,158 $ 2,218 $ 2,278 $ 2,338 $ 2, $ 2,100 $ 2,160 $ 2,218 $ 2,276 $ 2, $ 2,044 $ 2,100 $ 2,158 $ 2,214 $ 2, $ 1,988 $ 2,044 $ 2,098 $ 2,154 $ 2, $ 1,932 $ 1,986 $ 2,040 $ 2,094 $ 2, $ 1,878 $ 1,930 $ 1,982 $ 2,034 $ 2, $ 1,824 $ 1,874 $ 1,926 $ 1,976 $ 2,026 $ 360,000 $ 370,000 $ 380,000 $ 390,000 $ 400,000-10% -7.5% -5% -2.5% Principal and Interest Payments rounded to the nearest dollar amount.

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24 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage History January 2012 November 2013 Federal Reserve 11/2013

25 RETURN ON INVESTMENT January 2000 November 2013 MSN Money.com, Case Shiller

26 Home Price Expectation Survey A nationwide panel of over one hundred economists, real estate experts and investment & market strategists.

27 Average Annual Appreciation Home Price Expectation Survey Q

28 Home Price Expectation Survey Projected Percentage Increase Home Price Expectation Survey Q

29 Cumulative Appreciation by 2018 Home Price Expectation Survey Q

30 Thinking about moving up to the home of your dreams?

31 The Move-Up Seller Comparison Next Year Current Home Move-up Home Current Price $240,000 $360,000 Future Price (+5%) $252,000 $378,000 Future Gain $12,000 $18,000 Total Gain $6,000

32 The Move-Up Seller Price Rate P&I Today 360, , End of Year 378, Monthly Savings $205.12

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35 You can have brilliant ideas, but if you can't get them across, your Affordability is still good compared to any time over the last 50 years. ideas won't get you anywhere. Lee Iacocca

36 7.9% Average Annual APPRECIATION 3.6% 5.1% 4.2% Pre-BUBBLE BUBBLE RECOVERY TO DATE BUST -5.9% PROJECTED NOW to 2018 Home Price Expectation Survey Q

37 PROJECTED Percentage Appreciation Home Price Expectation Survey Q

38 Cumulative House Appreciation by % 23.7% 28% 16.8% Pre-Bubble Trend Bulls All Projections Bears Home Price Expectation Survey Q

39 Typical Sold Price* FSBO vs. Agent $215K $175K By FSBO By AGENT *The typical price is actually the average price in the survey. However, studies have shown that people are more likely to FSBO in markets with lower price points.

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41 In my opinion, Keeping Current Matters is THE easiest, most reliable Affordability is still good compared to any time over the last 50 years. and comprehensive source for national real estate data today.

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47 Understanding and Utilizing Today s Real Estate Data