Understanding and Utilizing Today s Real Estate Data
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1 Understanding and Utilizing Today s Real Estate Data
2 MATT Dollinger Why Matt?
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4 KCM Divided into Three Sections
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6 Existing Home Sales S&P Case Shiller 10/2013
7 Pending Home Sales 100 = Historically Healthy Level NAR 10/2013
8 Regional Home Prices (year-over-year) FHFA Q HPI Report
9 State Home Prices (year-over-year) FHFA Q HPI Report
10 The emerging slowdown in home purchases appears to be largely seasonal. Thomas Popik Research Director for the HousingPulse survey
11 Months Inventory of Homes for Sale 5-6 Months = Normal Market Inventory NAR 10/2013
12 Year-over-Year Inventory Levels NAR 10/2013
13 Year-over-Year Change in Prices S&P Case Shiller 10/2013
14 Asking home prices give us the first look at where home sale prices are headed, and they point to a slowdown. After rising rapidly in the first half of 2013, asking Affordability prices is still in good two compared thirds to of any the time largest over the metros last 50 years. are cooling. In fact, asking prices are falling not just rising more slowly in 11 of the 100 largest metros, the most markets to see prices slip in six months. Jed Kolko Trulia s Chief Economist
15 The rapid price gains of the last year cannot be sustained and we expect the pace to decline substantially A Affordability is still good compared slower to pace any time is over a the positive last 50 years. for housing demand and will help to keep affordability from further eroding. Moody s Analytics
16 If home values continued to rise as they have, relatively unchecked, we would almost certainly be headed into another bubble cycle, and nobody Affordability wants is still good that This compared to any moderation time over the last 50 should years. help consumers feel more at ease in their decisions to buy and sell, and will help keep the market balanced. Stan Humphries Chief Economist for Zillow
17 "I define a bubble as a time when people have extravagant expectations, and the expectations are driving home price increases. We don't have Affordability the is still mindset good compared of earlier to any time this over the century last 50 years. Affordability is still good compared to any time over the last 50 years." Robert Shiller Nobel Prize Winning Economist
18 ta per ˈtāpər/ Verb to diminish or reduce
19 Rate Movement 30 Year Fixed Rate Fed announces not to taper bond purchases Decrease in mortgage rates since Fed announcement Freddie Mac 10/2013
20 The MBA believes rates will keep pushing upward, going well above 5%. HousingWire 10/2013
21 Mortgage Rate Projections Analyst Projected Rate 4Q 2014 Fannie Mae 5.0% National Assoc of Realtors 5.4% Freddie Mac 5.1% Mortgage Bankers Assoc 5.0%
22 RATE Buyer s Purchasing Power 6.00 $ 2,158 $ 2,218 $ 2,278 $ 2,338 $ 2, $ 2,100 $ 2,160 $ 2,218 $ 2,276 $ 2, $ 2,044 $ 2,100 $ 2,158 $ 2,214 $ 2, $ 1,988 $ 2,044 $ 2,098 $ 2,154 $ 2, $ 1,932 $ 1,986 $ 2,040 $ 2,094 $ 2, $ 1,878 $ 1,930 $ 1,982 $ 2,034 $ 2, $ 1,824 $ 1,874 $ 1,926 $ 1,976 $ 2,026 $ 360,000 $ 370,000 $ 380,000 $ 390,000 $ 400,000-10% -7.5% -5% -2.5% Principal and Interest Payments rounded to the nearest dollar amount.
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24 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage History January 2012 November 2013 Federal Reserve 11/2013
25 RETURN ON INVESTMENT January 2000 November 2013 MSN Money.com, Case Shiller
26 Home Price Expectation Survey A nationwide panel of over one hundred economists, real estate experts and investment & market strategists.
27 Average Annual Appreciation Home Price Expectation Survey Q
28 Home Price Expectation Survey Projected Percentage Increase Home Price Expectation Survey Q
29 Cumulative Appreciation by 2018 Home Price Expectation Survey Q
30 Thinking about moving up to the home of your dreams?
31 The Move-Up Seller Comparison Next Year Current Home Move-up Home Current Price $240,000 $360,000 Future Price (+5%) $252,000 $378,000 Future Gain $12,000 $18,000 Total Gain $6,000
32 The Move-Up Seller Price Rate P&I Today 360, , End of Year 378, Monthly Savings $205.12
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35 You can have brilliant ideas, but if you can't get them across, your Affordability is still good compared to any time over the last 50 years. ideas won't get you anywhere. Lee Iacocca
36 7.9% Average Annual APPRECIATION 3.6% 5.1% 4.2% Pre-BUBBLE BUBBLE RECOVERY TO DATE BUST -5.9% PROJECTED NOW to 2018 Home Price Expectation Survey Q
37 PROJECTED Percentage Appreciation Home Price Expectation Survey Q
38 Cumulative House Appreciation by % 23.7% 28% 16.8% Pre-Bubble Trend Bulls All Projections Bears Home Price Expectation Survey Q
39 Typical Sold Price* FSBO vs. Agent $215K $175K By FSBO By AGENT *The typical price is actually the average price in the survey. However, studies have shown that people are more likely to FSBO in markets with lower price points.
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41 In my opinion, Keeping Current Matters is THE easiest, most reliable Affordability is still good compared to any time over the last 50 years. and comprehensive source for national real estate data today.
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47 Understanding and Utilizing Today s Real Estate Data
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Summary Statistics July 216 July 215 Paid in Cash 24,83 26,165-8.% 6,48 8,533-24.9% $223,238 $199,999 11.6% Average Sale Price Dollar Volume $299,292 $277,17 8.% $7.2 Billion $7.3 Billion -.6% Median Percent
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ly Market Detail - January 217 Summary Statistics January 217 January 216 Paid in Cash 7,29 6,791 6.2% 4,298 4,28 2.1% $161, $151, 6.6% Average Sale Price Dollar Volume $244,52 $235,221 4.% $1.8 Billion
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Summary Statistics November 216 November 215 Paid in Cash 19,763 17,523 12.8% 5,827 6,65-11.8% $22, $199,99 1.% Average Sale Price Dollar Volume $29,49 $273,155 6.2% $5.7 Billion $4.8 Billion 19.8% Median
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ly Market Detail - September 217 Summary Statistics September 217 September 216 Paid in Cash 18,3 22,653-2.4% 4,698 6,344-25.9% $239,9 $223, 7.6% Average Sale Price Dollar Volume $36,77 $289,781 5.9% $5.5
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ly Market Detail - March 217 Summary Statistics March 217 March 216 Paid in Cash 25,921 23,714 9.3% 7,567 7,594 -.4% $231,9 $29,969 1.4% Average Sale Price Dollar Volume $318,115 $285,868 11.3% $8.2 Billion
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Summary Statistics January 219 January 218 Paid in Cash 15,526 16,561-6.2% 4,556 5,34-9.5% $249,9 $24, 4.1% Average Sale Price Dollar Volume $34,241 $334,381 1.8% $5.3 Billion $5.5 Billion -4.6% Median
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ly Market Detail - January 218 Summary Statistics January 218 January 217 Paid in Cash 7,634 7,29 5.9% 4,328 4,298.7% $179,9 $161, 11.7% Average Sale Price Dollar Volume $286,44 $244,52 17.1% $2.2 Billion
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Summary Statistics November 218 November 217 Paid in Cash 2,578 19,983 3.% 5,338 5,372 -.6% $255, $24, 6.3% Average Sale Price Dollar Volume $331,711 $314,76 5.4% $6.8 Billion $6.3 Billion 8.5% Median
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Summary Statistics February 8 February 7 Paid in Cash 8.%.% $8, $8, -6.8% Average Sale Price Dollar Volume $9,76 $7, -.7% $79,68 $9, 6.% Median Percent of Original List Price Received 97.% 9.%.% Median
More informationSummary Statistics. Closed Sales. Paid in Cash. Median Sale Price. Average Sale Price. Dollar Volume. Median Time to Sale.
ly Market Detail - May 218 Summary Statistics May 218 May 217 Paid in Cash 12,25 11,551 4.1% 6,24 6,285-1.3% $188, $177,6 5.9% Average Sale Price Dollar Volume $282,262 $261,48 7.9% $3.4 Billion $3. Billion
More informationMonthly Indicators - 3.6% + 8.3% %
ly Indicators A RESEARCH TOOL PROVIDED BY THE WESTERN UPSTATE ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS 2013 Quick Facts The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index recently showed that home prices in 20 major metropolitan areas
More informationJuly 2016 Washington, DC Market Trends Report July home prices remain at record highs in the District
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Contact: Bobette Banks 301-590-8764 Director of Communications Greater Capital Area Association of REALTORS bbanks@gcaar.com July 2016 Washington, DC Market Trends Report July home
More informationSummary Statistics. Closed Sales. Paid in Cash. Median Sale Price. Average Sale Price. Dollar Volume. Median Time to Sale.
Summary Statistics November 8 November 7 Paid in Cash 8.% 66.7% $,7 $7, -6.% Average Sale Price Dollar Volume $6,87 $8,7-7.% $8, $, 66.% Median Percent of Original List Price Received 8.6% 9.% -.% Median
More informationMonthly Indicators + 3.5% + 3.0% % Activity Overview New Listings Pending Sales. Closed Sales. Days on Market Until Sale. Median Sales Price
Monthly Indicators 218 Housing price bubble chatter has increased this summer, as market observers attempt to predict the next residential real estate shift. It is too early to predict a change from higher
More informationBy several measures, homebuilding made a comeback in 2012 (Figure 6). After falling another 8.6 percent in 2011, single-family
2 Housing Markets With sales picking up, low inventories of both new and existing homes helped to firm prices and spur new single-family construction in 212. Multifamily markets posted another strong year,
More informationSummary Statistics. Closed Sales. Paid in Cash. Median Sale Price. Average Sale Price. Dollar Volume. Median Time to Sale.
ly Market Detail - Q1 216 Summary Statistics Q1 216 Q1 215 Paid in Cash 57,913 57,742.3% 2,133 23,724-15.1% $23,5 $182, 11.8% Average Sale Price Dollar Volume $285,447 $266,453 7.1% $16.5 Billion $15.4
More informationReleased: February 8, 2011
Released: February 8, 2011 Commentary 2 The Numbers That Drive Real Estate 3 Recent Government Action 10 Topics for Home Buyers, Sellers, and Owners 13 Brought to you by: KW Research Commentary Gradual
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