TREND Economic and Market Watch Report

Transcription

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2 TREND Economic and Watch Report TREND is the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) for more than 32,000 real estate professionals in and around the Philadelphia metropolitan region. TREND s 13-county primary service area includes Kent and New Castle counties in Delaware; Burlington, Camden, Gloucester, Mercer and Salem counties in New Jersey; and Berks, Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Montgomery and Philadelphia counties in Pennsylvania. For more than 10 years, TREND has been committed to providing real estate professionals with superior real estate marketing information services. That commitment continues today and well into the future with our Internet-based MLS and Public Records systems and additional TREND products. The market information services and technology that TREND offers along with education, communication and support of these, give real estate professionals the tools and the advantage they need to succeed in today's industry. TREND provides the Economic and Watch Report to help real estate professionals identify current and future economic trends that affect the real estate industry. Index Local Report Delaware Kent County... New Castle County... New Jersey Burlington County... Camden County... Gloucester County... Mercer County... Salem County... Pennsylvania Berks County... Bucks County... Chester County... Delaware County... Montgomery County... Philadelphia County Trends... Chief Economist's Commentary*... Local Forecast... Economic Monitor* *Reprinted from Real Estate Outlook: Trends and Insights TREND MLS and NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS. Used with permission. Reproduction, reprinting, or retransmission of this article in any form (electronic media included) is prohibited without expressed written consent. For subscription information please call

3 Buyer's Kent County, DE Seller's Labor : In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 2,221 jobs were added to the payrolls of Kent County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 3.3% during the third quarter to 2.9% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases. Housing : Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07 (Forecast) # Homes on the * # ** # New Homes Built Avg # of Days $239,400 $233, * Available as of Dec. 31, ** May not add to total of zip codes *** During the first two months of 4th quarter. Zip Code (Quarter) $209, % % % $225, % % % $278, % % % $361, % $296, % % % $258, % % % $251, % % % $223, % % % $202, % % % $188, % % % $204, % % % $177, % % % 3

4 Kent County, DE Zip Code (Quarter) $319, % $235, % % % $200, % % % $249, % % % $238, % % % $155, % % % 4

5 Buyer's New Castle County, DE Seller's Labor : In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 6,682 jobs were added to the payrolls of New Castle County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4.3% during the third quarter to 3.5% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases. Housing : Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07 (Forecast) # Homes on the * # ** # New Homes Built Avg # of Days $263,400 $253,300 1,403 1,650 2,081 1, * Available as of Dec. 31, ** May not add to total of zip codes *** During the first two months of 4th quarter. Zip Code (Quarter) $273, % % % $245, % % % $208, % % % $213, % % % $436, % % % $338, % % % $321, % % % $231, % % % $199, % % % $305, % % % $799, % % % $285, % % % 5

6 New Castle County, DE Zip Code (Quarter) $311, % $97, % % % $152, % % % $363, % % % $196, % % % $154, % % % $253, % % % $834, % % % $255, % % % $221, % % % $326, % % % $362, % % % $229, % % % 6

7 Buyer's Burlington County, NJ Seller's Labor : In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 2,203 jobs were added to the payrolls of Burlington County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4.6% during the third quarter to 3.5% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases. Housing : Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07 (Forecast) # Homes on the * # ** # New Homes Built Avg # of Days $287,600 $278,800 1,355 1,918 1,709 1, * Available as of Dec. 31, ** May not add to total of zip codes *** During the first two months of 4th quarter. Zip Code (Quarter) $175, % % % $204, % % % $251, % % % $382, % $402, % % % $350, % % % $199, % % % $294, % % % $183, % % % $306, % % % $274, % % % $400, % % % 7

8 Burlington County, NJ Zip Code (Quarter) $559, % % % $246, % % % $310, % $206, % % % $254, % % % $257, % % % $275, % % % $680, % $307, % % % $282, % % % $359, % % % $486, % % % $151, % % % $170, % % % $348, % % % $205, % % % $230, % % % 8

9 Buyer's Camden County, NJ Seller's Labor : In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 2,405 jobs were added to the payrolls of Camden County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 5.7% during the third quarter to 4.7% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases. Housing : Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07 (Forecast) # Homes on the * # ** # New Homes Built Avg # of Days $225,300 $210,300 1,377 2,014 1,815 1, * Available as of Dec. 31, ** May not add to total of zip codes *** During the first two months of 4th quarter. Zip Code (Quarter) $243, % % % $313, % % % $210, % % % $198, % % % $235, % % % $209, % % % $240, % $156, % % % $298, % % % $177, % % % $129, % % % $190, % % % 9

10 Camden County, NJ Zip Code (Quarter) $494, % % % $243, % % % $258, % % % $208, % % % $328, % % % $192, % % % $193, % % % $186, % % % $193, % % % $203, % % % $187, % % % $194, % % % $267, % % % $228, % % % $58, % % % $75, % % % $67, % % % $82, % % % $205, % % % $192, % % % $259, % % % $206, % % % $158, % % % OTHER $215, % % % 10

11 Buyer's Gloucester County, NJ Seller's Labor : In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 1,342 jobs were added to the payrolls of Gloucester County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 5.2% during the third quarter to 4% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases. Housing : Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07 (Forecast) # Homes on the * # ** # New Homes Built Avg # of Days $241,300 $242, ,117 1, * Available as of Dec. 31, ** May not add to total of zip codes *** During the first two months of 4th quarter. Zip Code (Quarter) $190, % $243, % % % $244, % $206, % % % $285, % $188, % % % $229, % % % $209, % % % $342, % % % $279, % % % $353, % % % $165, % % % 11

12 Gloucester County, NJ Zip Code (Quarter) $146, % % % $210, % % % $272, % % % $309, % % % $341, % % % $260, % % % $222, % % % $169, % % % $242, % % % $212, % % % $211, % % % $207, % % % $254, % % % $272, % % % $308, % % % $197, % % % 12

13 Buyer's Mercer County, NJ Seller's Labor : In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 1,833 jobs were added to the payrolls of Mercer County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4.7% during the third quarter to 3.7% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases. Housing : Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07 (Forecast) # Homes on the * # ** # New Homes Built Avg # of Days $359,800 $325,900 1,073 1,330 1, * Available as of Dec. 31, ** May not add to total of zip codes *** During the first two months of 4th quarter. Zip Code (Quarter) $235, % % % $284, % % % $649, % % % $507, % % % $804, % % % $385, % % % $578, % % % $498, % % % $385, % $130, % % % $218, % % % $119, % % % 13

14 Mercer County, NJ Zip Code (Quarter) $169, % % % $280, % % % $313, % % % $293, % % % $169, % % % $200, % % % $327, % % % $322, % % % $408, % % % OTHER $319, % % % 14

15 Buyer's Salem County, NJ Seller's Labor : In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 317 jobs were added to the payrolls of Salem County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 5.2% during the third quarter to 4.6% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases. Housing : Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07 (Forecast) # Homes on the * # ** # New Homes Built Avg # of Days $199,000 $192, * Available as of Dec. 31, ** May not add to total of zip codes *** During the first two months of 4th quarter. Zip Code (Quarter) $363, % $106, % $212, % % % $141, % % % $166, % % % $234, % % % $166, % % % $267, % % % $214, % % % $238, % % % $278, % % % 15

16 Buyer's Berks County, PA Seller's Labor : In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 720 jobs were added to the payrolls of Berks County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4.3% during the third quarter to 4% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases. Housing : Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07 (Forecast) # Homes on the * # ** # New Homes Built Avg # of Days $188,800 $176,500 1,170 1,439 1,639 1, * Available as of Dec. 31, ** May not add to total of zip codes *** During the first two months of 4th quarter. Zip Code (Quarter) $195, % $153, % % % $425, % % % $179, % % % $511, % % % $344, % $850, % % % $150, % $366, % % % $261, % % % $237, % % % $186, % % % 16

17 Berks County, PA Zip Code (Quarter) $213, % % % $217, % % % $225, % % % $262, % % % $210, % % % $201, % % % $139, % % % $197, % % % $198, % % % $345, % % % $213, % % % $264, % % % $232, % % % $276, % % % $285, % % % $104, % % % $227, % % % $115, % % % $192, % % % $66, % % % $168, % % % $173, % % % $255, % % % $175, % % % $65, % % % $48, % % % $73, % % % $173, % % % $173, % % % $155, % % % $237, % % % $155, % % % $248, % % % $113, % % % 17

18 Buyer's Bucks County, PA Seller's Labor : In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 1,069 jobs were added to the payrolls of Bucks County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4% during the third quarter to 3.6% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases. Housing : Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07 (Forecast) # Homes on the * # ** # New Homes Built Avg # of Days $371,500 $355,800 1,597 1,913 2,014 1, * Available as of Dec. 31, ** May not add to total of zip codes *** During the first two months of 4th quarter. Zip Code (Quarter) $430, % % % $430, % $429, % $145, % % % $264, % % % $493, % % % $455, % % % $438, % % % $325, % $1,119, % % % $355, % % % $238, % % % 18

19 Bucks County, PA Zip Code (Quarter) $550, % % % $345, % % % $521, % % % $280, % % % $418, % % % $339, % % % $259, % $682, % % % $444, % % % $605, % % % $353, % % % $464, % % % $515, % $288, % % % $466, % % % $188, % % % $265, % $295, % % % $656, % $336, % % % $207, % % % $244, % % % $346, % % % $310, % % % $387, % % % $550, % % % $456, % % % $182, % % % $278, % % % $215, % % % $252, % % % $319, % % % $353, % % % $315, % % % $240, % % % $208, % % % $248, % % % 19

20 Bucks County, PA Zip Code (Quarter) $219, % % % $382, % % % $372, % OTHER $953, % 20

21 Buyer's Chester County, PA Seller's Labor : In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 798 jobs were added to the payrolls of Chester County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 3.5% during the third quarter to 3% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases. Housing : Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07 (Forecast) # Homes on the * # ** # New Homes Built Avg # of Days $384,600 $364,800 1,524 1,815 1,868 1, * Available as of Dec. 31, ** May not add to total of zip codes *** During the first two months of 4th quarter. Zip Code (Quarter) $364, % % % $382, % % % $396, % % % $188, % % % $402, % % % $851, % % % $585, % % % $223, % % % $445, % % % $571, % % % $345, % % % $332, % % % 21

22 Chester County, PA Zip Code (Quarter) $419, % $514, % % % $288, % % % $433, % % % $442, % % % $380, % % % $530, % % % $244, % % % $290, % % % $200, % % % $225, % % % $240, % % % $1,050, % $225, % % % $419, % % % $363, % % % $383, % % % $308, % % % $164, % $475, % % % $295, % % % $389, % $359, % % % $229, % % % $510, % % % $327, % % % $478, % $475, % 22

23 Buyer's Delaware County, PA Seller's Labor : In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 875 jobs were added to the payrolls of Delaware County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4.6% during the third quarter to 4% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases. Housing : Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07 (Forecast) # Homes on the * # ** # New Homes Built Avg # of Days $269,300 $244,500 1,513 1,621 2,043 1, * Available as of Dec. 31, ** May not add to total of zip codes *** During the first two months of 4th quarter. Zip Code (Quarter) $291, % % % $355, % % % $392, % % % $67, % % % $249, % % % $142, % % % $360, % $171, % % % $97, % % % $90, % % % $208, % % % $132, % % % 23

24 Delaware County, PA Zip Code (Quarter) $131, % % % $204, % % % $157, % % % $290, % % % $179, % % % $152, % % % $227, % % % $382, % % % $308, % % % $617, % $236, % % % $520, % % % $178, % % % $172, % % % $184, % % % $119, % % % $295, % % % $113, % % % $270, % % % $1,835, % % % $305, % % % $881, % % % $152, % % % $360, % % % $315, % $461, % % % $353, % % % $536, % % % $610, % % % 24

25 Buyer's Montgomery County, PA Seller's Labor : In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 1,331 jobs were added to the payrolls of Montgomery County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 3.7% during the third quarter to 3.3% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases. Housing : Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07 (Forecast) # Homes on the * # ** # New Homes Built Avg # of Days $350,900 $336,300 2,296 2,679 3,128 2, * Available as of Dec. 31, ** May not add to total of zip codes *** During the first two months of 4th quarter. Zip Code (Quarter) $226, % % % $372, % % % $290, % % % $343, % % % $198, % % % $358, % % % $227, % $280, % % % $385, % % % $259, % % % $478, % % % $369, % % % 25

26 Montgomery County, PA Zip Code (Quarter) $561, % % % $398, % % % $1,131, % % % $293, % % % $442, % % % $285, % % % $292, % % % $476, % % % $1,121, % % % $296, % % % $263, % % % $956, % % % $283, % % % $439, % % % $692, % % % $459, % % % $313, % % % $1,053, % % % $636, % % % $233, % % % $289, % % % $555, % % % $1,690, % $197, % % % $278, % % % $212, % % % $276, % % % $305, % $482, % % % $352, % % % $328, % % % $363, % % % $300, % % % $434, % % % $300, % % % $126, % % % $295, % % % 26

27 Montgomery County, PA Zip Code (Quarter) $370, % % % $398, % % % $354, % % % $166, % % % $246, % % % $323, % % % $236, % % % $265, % % % $206, % % % $205, % % % $273, % % % 27

28 Buyer's Philadelphia County, PA Seller's Labor : In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 1,901 jobs were added to the payrolls of Philadelphia County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 6.6% during the third quarter to 6.1% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases. Housing : Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07 (Forecast) # Homes on the * # ** # New Homes Built Avg # of Days $181,600 $182,900 3,873 5,472 4,452 3, * Available as of Dec. 31, ** May not add to total of zip codes *** During the first two months of 4th quarter. Zip Code (Quarter) $417, % % % $623, % % % $163, % % % $549, % % % $374, % % % $178, % % % $214, % % % $279, % % % $248, % % % $620, % % % $255, % % % $93, % % % 28

29 Philadelphia County, PA Zip Code (Quarter) $94, % % % $163, % % % $522, % % % $95, % % % $170, % % % $144, % % % $239, % % % $246, % % % $234, % % % $373, % % % $122, % % % $54, % % % $42, % % % $66, % % % $120, % % % $130, % % % $116, % % % $96, % % % $81, % % % $53, % % % $83, % % % $74, % % % $87, % % % $108, % % % $133, % % % $200, % % % $393, % % % $147, % % % $131, % % % $147, % % % $115, % % % $189, % % % $124, % % % $191, % % % 29

30 Trends Where the Sales Are By Ken Fears Manager, Regional Economics Back in October of 2005, mortgage rates began what was to be a 10 month climb. At its peak the 30-year fixed rate mortgage reached a monthly average of 6.76%. Since then, mortgage rates have moderated and currently stand at 6.22% according to Freddie Mac. Even at this rate, though, climbing rates have done their damage. The payment-shock that potential buyers experienced when they did the numbers last fall had a large psychological effect. The monthly payments that these would-be buyers faced surged in a matter of months. For many, this increase pushed them out of the range of homeownership. While others, convinced of the instability of the market, chose to move to the sideline and wait for the market to settle. The immediate effect was a sharp decrease in sales, while prices remained relatively steady. But favorable income and employment information tells us that strong levels of demand remain lurking in the shadows, looking for buying opportunities. Furthermore there has been much speculation that sales at the upper levels have been hit hardest and that demand at the lower price ranges remains robust. Price Range Total Home Sales 2005 Q4 Total Home Sales 2006 Q4 Percentage Change <$200K 9,842 3, % $200K-$299K 5,814 5, % $300K-$399K 2,788 2, % $400K-$599K 1,825 1, % $600K> % Now that the market has had a year to absorb the impact of rising mortgage rates, it is worth identifying its effects and which sectors have proven the most resilient. Based on the sales information from the fourth quarter of 2006 (October, November, and December) and comparing it with the same time period in 2005, we see that: The most homes are being sold in the lower price ranges. The fewest homes are sold in the upper price ranges. Compared to last fall, the upper price ranges have proven to be the most resilient in terms of retaining their level of sales. However, sales have softened most in the lower price range. So how has the area covered by TREND MLS faired relative to the rest of the country? Locally, sales are off by -13.8%, which lags the national average of -10.1%. We also find that there does not appear to be a build up of demand at the lower price levels. Looking forward, keeping monthly payments in a reasonable range will be critical to continued sales growth. With mortgage rates steady, but likely to increase moderately, some additional willingness on the part of sellers to make price concessions will help move homes. By years end, though, we expect sales growth to flatten out in most local markets and to even gain traction in a few. 28

31 29 Chief Economist s Commentary An Old Year of Contraction; A New Year of Stability by David Lereah, Chief Economist We begin the New Year with a hint of optimism. The glass was half empty in 2006 home sales fell throughout the year. But the glass looks to be half full in While property speculation has ceased, signs of a return to home buying have surfaced and inventory levels have topped out. REALTORS and lenders a like are encouraged, but guarded, about Last year was a year of contraction, a correction that was sorely needed after five years of a booming housing market expansion. Home prices were inflated and property investors (and speculators) were everywhere at the end of That set the stage for 2006 to spiral downward. Home buyers stayed on the sidelines because they could not afford the lofty-priced homes in the boom-inflicted regions. Some households also postponed buying because they believed prices would eventually drop, making them better off buying later rather than now. Property speculators fled, dumping inventories. Meanwhile, homeowners looking to sell sat stubbornly tied to their listing prices. Let s be clear, though. The sky never did actually fall in 2006 or, to use that phrase that the media love, there were no bubbles bursting. But air did come out of some inflated balloons. According to our National Association of REALTORS latest estimates for last year, existing home sales were down 8.2 percent from a year earlier. Similarly, new home sales were down 17.4 percent and housing starts were down 12.5 percent. Our nation s housing sector suffered a contraction, inhibiting over all GDP growth. But 2007 is a new year and with it brings a cautious confidence and hopefulness. Home sales appear to have bottomed out, having reached a cyclical low in September of last year. And in recent months, home sales are inching up, not down. Existing home sales experienced two consecutive monthly, albeit modest, gains from September to November. Inventories have stabilized, with the nation s months supply hovering around 7.3 months since July of last year. What all this means is that potential home buyers have amore favorable backdrop for buying today. It is now a buyers market. Sellers are more flexible now, reducing prices and/or paying part of the closing costs. High inventories are now a positive rather than a negative for property buyers. Rising inventories in 2006 reflected a deteriorating market place, keeping buyers on the sidelines. Stable inventories in 2007 represent more choices for buyers. Mortgage rates continue to hover near cyclical lows, keeping financing costs low. And depending on where you live, affordability conditions are most likely improving. Wages (income) are registering healthy rates of growth, while home price growth is flat or down, broadening a household s financial capacity to purchase property. Yes, housing was bed-ridden at the end of last year. Existing home sales hit bottom during the fourth quarter of But after a frenzied five-year real estate boom, a reasonable prescription for our nation s housing sector is regular rest and a healthy regimen of exercise. I expect housing to get back on its feet in Our forecast calls for modest quarterly gains throughout this year, but year-over-year, home sales are expected to fall by a modest 1.2 percent. New home sales are not expected to rebound until the third quarter of this year so year-over-year sales are expected to fall by a larger 9.7 percent. Looking back, 2006 was a year of contraction. But looking forward, 2007 will represent a year of stability. Cheers to the New Year. Home buyers have a more favorable backdrop for buying today. It is now a buyers market.

32 Forecast The Forecast By Lawrence Yun, Senior Research Forecaster National Outlook Despite all the news headlines over the past year about the housing market bubble and housing market slump, the final figures for 2006 actually look quite respectable. Home prices squeaked out a gain of 1.1% for the year. That would mark 39 straight years of positive home price growth out of 39 years of reliable tracking of the data. Existing home sales in 2006 posted 6.48 million units a 8.4% decline from 2005, but still the third best year on record. The more cyclical new home sales fell by 17.3% to 1.06 million in 2006 for the fourth best year on record. All in all, not that bad. With the economy and job market performing nicely, 2007 will likely bring another respectable housing year. The latest fourth quarter economic expansion was much stronger than anticipated. GDP grew by 3.5% in the fourth quarter of 2006 compared to the 2.4% originally forecast. The job market also is stronger. A regular once-a-year benchmark revision by the Labor Department shows that it had undercounted payroll employment by three quarters of a million people for most of That s almost like saying that all of the jobs in the Super-Bowl celebrating Indianapolis area were left out of the original count and are only now being added to the official figures. The current unemployment rate of 4.6% and the 2.15 million net new job additions over the past 12 months are both indications that the state of the U.S. economy is all fine and good. Record stock market and record housing market valuations also lifted the aggregate U.S. household net worth to $54 trillion the highest ever. That is five times as high as the U.S. annual consumption. In another words, we have enough wealth to buy the same amount of things and maintain the same standard of living for the next five years without even bothering to work. But the U.S. will be working. It is part of the American spirit to want to accumulate even more wealth. Job additions overall should be close to 2 million in With mortgage rates projected to remain favorable throughout 2007 (averaging 6.6%), the 2 million new jobs would typically lead to 250, ,000 more home sales. But we are still in an atypical year with a high housing inventory overhang brought on by the exit of investors/speculators. The inventory needs to thin out before the housing market revs back up to cruising speed. Home sales are, therefore, projected to not increase in But come 2008 and beyond, a steady 3% to 5% increase in home sales will be the norm. Home prices by then will also begin to outpace CPI inflation growth. Housing will again prove it can provide attractive long-term investment returns. Local Outlook About 13% of all home sales were for second homes (investor rental homes and vacations homes) in the past three years in the local area. Therefore, there is a little risk of investor dumping properties onto the market over the short term. Now with the job growth coming around nicely, the worst in the housing market appears to be at its end. Home sales will steadily strengthen from the second half of For the year as a whole, home sales will fall 1% in 2007 and then rise 4% in Price growth will be sluggish in 2007 in order to work off the excess inventory, but will outpace the inflation rate by 2008, and thereby providing solid financial returns to ownership. 30

33 Forecast Economic and Housing Outlook: February Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q U.S. Economy Annual Growth Rate Real GDP Nonfarm Payroll Employment Consumer Prices Real Disposable Income Consumer Confidence Percent Unemployment Rate Interest Rates, Percent Fed Funds Rate Month T-Bill Rate Prime Rate Corporate Aaa Bond Yield Year Government Bond Year Government Bond Mortgage Rates, percent 30-Year Fixed Rate Year Adjustable National Housing Indicators Thousands Existing Single-Family Sales 6,790 6,687 6,280 6,243 6,354 6,373 6,466 6,550 7, ,635 New Single-Family Sales 1,111 1,100 1,007 1, , Housing Starts 2,123 1,873 1,714 1,564 1,518 1,500 1,510 1,530 2, ,515 1,562 Single-Family Units 1,747 1,530 1,401 1,233 1,196 1,165 1,168 1,186 1, ,179 1,216 Multifamily Units Residential Construction* Percent Change -- Year Ago Existing Single-Family Sales New Single-Family Sales Housing Starts Single-Family Units Multifamily Units Residential Construction National Home Prices Thousands of Dollars Existing Home Prices New Home Prices Percent Change -- Year Ago Existing Home Prices New Home Prices Local Region Payroll Jobs (in thousands) Home Sales Home Prices (in thousand $) Percent Change -- Year Ago Jobs 1.2% 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 1.0% 0.9% 1.1% 1.3% 1.0% 1.2% 1.1% 1.4% Home Sales -0.1% -5.0% -16.1% -14.4% -9.2% -3.0% 2.7% 3.9% 1.3% -9.6% -1.2% 3.9% Home Prices 7.9% 6.5% 1.8% 1.7% 0.9% 0.1% 2.0% 2.2% 12.4% 3.9% 1.4% 3.3% Quarterly figures are seasonally adjusted annual rates. * Billion dollars Source: Forecast produced using Macroeconomic Advisers quarterly model of the U.S. economy. Assumptions and simulations by Dr. David Lereah and Dr. Lawrence Yun. 31

34 This table reflects data available through January 5, Economic Monitor Monthly Indicator Existing Home Sales rose for a second consecutive month in November,posting 6.28 million units (seasonally adjusted annualized rate). Sales have been bouncing around the million level for the past five months, indicating the market is stabilizing. Housing inventory decreased by 40,000 units, and is at a 7.3 months supply at the current sales pace. Recent Statistics Oct 06 6,240 Nov 06 6,280 Nov 05 7,030 Likely Direction Over the Next Six Months Forecast Modest but steady rise New Home Sales posted 1.05 million units in November (seasonally adjusted annualized rate) a 3.4% increase from October s pace and the third monthly increase in the past four months. New home inventory fell to a 6.3 months supply, higher than the level a year ago, but very close to a balanced market. Housing Starts rose 7% in November after having tumbled in October.Total starts posted million units (seasonally adjusted, annualized). Multifamily starts were essentially unchanged, while singlefamily units rose by 96,000. Even so, housing starts are 26% lower than they were a year ago. Oct 06 1,013 Nov 06 1,047 Nov 05 1,236 Oct 06 1,488 Nov 06 1,588 Nov 05 2,131 Fewer new homes being built and fewer new home sales opportunity More cuts needed to bring down excessive inventory Housing Affordability continues to improve. NAR s housing affordability index was in November the fourth consecutive monthly increase and above the level in November The increase is due to continuing low interest rates, and home price declines. Oct Nov Nov Wages growing at 4% more than double the pace of home price growth of 1% to 2% Purchase Applications The Mortgage Bankers Association s purchase applications index rose in December to its highest level in 12 months to Declining mortgage rates and strong job growth contributed to both purchase and refinance activities. Nov Dec Dec Rising existing home sales (85% of the market) more than offset thedeclining new home sales. Employment Non-farm payrolls increased by 167,000 in December beating most analysts expectations. November s job creation figure was revised upward by 30,000. From December 2005 to December 2006, 1.8 million net new jobs were added to the economy. Mortgage Rates The 30-year fixed mortgage rate dipped to 6.14% in December its lowest level since October The one-year adjustable rate was 5.45% in December.The slower housing market compared to a year ago is helping keep rates low. Long-term rates are expected to rise moderately in 2007 to the mid 6% range. Inflation The consumer price index (CPI) was flat in November, as was the core index, which excludes the food and energy components. Energy prices decreased slightly by 0.2% in November. Price growth will likely average a mild 0.2% monthly increase over the next three months, assuming moderate increases in fuel and heating costs as the winter gets into full swing. Nov Dec Dec Nov Dec Dec Oc % Nov % Nov % Job gains to be similar in the coming months Slow rise, but comfortable below 7% for Inflation declining, partly helped by tumbling oil prices Notes: All rate are seasonally adjusted. New home sales, existing home sales, and housing starts are shown in thousands. Employment growth is shown as month-to-month change in thousands. Inflation is shown as the month-to-month change in the Consumer Price Index. Sources: NAR, Bureau of the Census, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association 32