Metropolitan Area Statistics (1Q 2013)

Transcription

1 Metropolitan Area Statistics (1Q 2013) Apartment Completions 1Q Q 2013 % Chg Atlanta 487 1, % Boston % Chicago % Cleveland Columbus n/a Dallas-Ft. Worth 1,327 2,315 74% Denver % Detroit % Houston % Indianapolis % Las Vegas % Los Angeles 441 1, % Miami % Minneapolis % New York 1,671 3,188 91% New Jersey % Oakland-East Bay n/a Orange County % Orlando 510 1, % Philadelphia % Phoenix % Portland % Sacramento - 69 n/a Riverside % San Diego % San Francisco % San Jose % Seattle-Tacoma 335 2, % Petersburg % Washington, D.C , % U.S. Metro Total 11,237 23, % Apartment Effective Rents 1Q Q 2013 % Chg Atlanta $824 $ % Boston $1,703 $1, % Chicago $1,139 $1, % Cleveland $776 $ % Columbus $743 $ % Dallas-Ft. Worth $812 $ % Denver $971 $1, % Detroit $779 $ % Houston $838 $ % Indianapolis $684 $ % Las Vegas $720 $ % Los Angeles $1,600 $1, % Miami $1,203 $1, % Minneapolis $980 $1, % New York $3,639 $3, % New Jersey $1,869 $1, % Oakland-East Bay $1,534 $1, % Orange County $1,502 $1, % Orlando $877 $ % Philadelphia $1,139 $1, % Phoenix $740 $ % Portland $931 $ % Sacramento $978 $ % Riverside $1,022 $1, % San Diego $1,312 $1, % San Francisco $2,330 $2, % San Jose $1,855 $1, % Seattle-Tacoma $1,145 $1, % Petersburg $848 $ % Washington, D.C. $1,563 $1, % U.S. Metro Total $1,121 $1, % Apartment Vacancies 1Q Q 2013 bps Chg Atlanta 9.2% 8.5% (70) Boston 3.2% 3.5% 30 Chicago 4.7% 4.8% 10 Cleveland 4.0% 4.0% 0 Columbus 4.9% 4.9% 0 Dallas-Ft. Worth 6.9% 6.4% (50) Denver 4.7% 4.8% 10 Detroit 4.4% 4.6% 20 Houston 8.2% 7.7% (50) Indianapolis 6.3% 8.2% 190 Las Vegas 8.1% 8.8% 70 Los Angeles 3.5% 3.7% 20 Miami 3.5% 3.2% (30) Minneapolis 2.8% 2.8% 0 New York 2.3% 2.6% 30 New Jersey 3.2% 3.2% 0 Oakland-East Bay 2.9% 3.4% 50 Orange County 4.0% 4.4% 40 Orlando 6.3% 5.2% (110) Philadelphia 5.2% 5.4% 20 Phoenix 7.3% 6.6% (70) Portland 3.6% 3.6% 0 Sacramento 4.7% 5.1% 40 Riverside 5.2% 5.7% 50 San Diego 4.0% 4.1% 10 San Francisco 3.6% 4.4% 80 San Jose 2.8% 3.5% 70 Seattle-Tacoma 4.8% 4.3% (50) Petersburg 7.1% 6.3% (80) Washington, D.C. 4.4% 4.8% 40 U.S. Metro Total 5.1% 5.1% 0 Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Reis, Costar Group, Inc., Real Capital Analytics 14 August 2013 Multi-Housing News

2 Units Multifamily Starts 400, , , , , , ,000 Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. 234,000 Finished Goods vs. Construction Materials and Components 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% -0.5% -1.0% 0.4% -0.6% Materials & Components for Construction 0% -0.3% Finished Goods Multifamily Starts: Housing starts for five-plus unit dwellings plunged 38 percent in April 2013, falling from a downwardly revised 376,000 units in March to 234,000 at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. In addition, starts are also down on a year-over-year basis, slipping 2.5 percent from the April 2012 level of 240,000. This marks the first time since August 2012 that five-plus starts dropped below a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 250,000 units. On a three-month moving average basis, which smoothes out some of this measure s month-to-month volatility, fiveplus starts averaged 306,000 units representing the third-highest reading in nearly five years. While starts declined precipitously in April 2013, the rate at which new permits for five-plus unit dwellings were issued skyrocketed to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 374,000, or a 55 percent increase on a year-over-year basis. At this level, permits for five-plus housing units reached their highest monthly reading since late Interest Rates Building Materials 6.0% 4.0% Feb. Mar. Apr. Cement Softwood Lumber Steel Gypsum Plywood 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 1.0% Prime Rate 3.25% 10-Year Treasury 1.80% 3-Month Libor 0.47% 3-Month Libor 0.28% Prime Rate 3.25% 10-Year Treasury 1.76% Building Materials: Prices for residential construction inputs held steady in April 2013, decelerating for the second consecutive month. Compared to April 2012, the residential construction producer price index has increased 1.4 percent. Overall, this marks the smallest percentage increase in residential construction input prices since June Softwood lumber and OSB prices continued to outpace the overall basket of inputs used in the residential construction process, posting year-over-year increases of 33 percent and 79 percent, respectively. Gypsum prices have jumped nearly 20 percent since April 2012, but the pace of month-to-month gains has slowed considerably. Copper and steel prices remain on a downward trend despite an uptick during April 2013, while asphalt prices are demonstrably lower than they were during the same period a year ago. 16 August 2013 Multi-Housing News

3 CPI vs. Rent Existing Condo Median Sales Price 1 6.0% % Rent 2.6% CPI -1.6% CPI -4.3% Rent 1.8% Price $200,000 $190,000 $180,000 $170,000 $160,000 $150,000 $180,700 $189,500 CPI vs. Rent: The Consumer Price Index for all urban consumers (CPI- U) declined 0.4 percent on a month-to-month basis in April 2013 the first back-to-back declines for the CPI since the end of Falling energy prices prompted the retreat in the CPI-U, as the energy index contracted 4.3 percent versus March. Compared to March 2012, the overall CPI rose 1.1 percent and is the smallest year-over-year percentage increase since mid Core CPI, which strips out the volatile contributions of food and energy prices, registered a modest 0.1 percent month-to-month gain for the second consecutive month. Shelter prices continued their steady upward trend, rising 0.2 percent for the month and 2.2 percent versus April NAHB s Real Rent Index, which compares changes in rental costs to the overall price level, climbed 0.5 percent in April, the strongest rate of growth since the end of On a year-over-year basis, the Real Rent Index rose 1.6 percent in March. Existing Condo Median Price: Seasonally adjusted condominium and co-op sales decreased 3.3 percent from March 2013 to a seasonally adjusted rate of 590,000 units in April. On a year-over-year basis, condo and co-op sales continue to trend higher, gaining 15.7 percent from the same period a year ago. The three-month moving average for condo and co-op sales reached 607,000 units during April. At the same time, condo and co-op inventory remains thin, declining 2 percent from last month and 25 percent from last year. At current sales rates, there is approximately 4.9 months supply for condo and co-op units. Prices continue to recover, rising 11.3 percent from April 2012 up to $189,500. Prices have increased at double-digit rates in the past three months and five of the last seven. Finally, the median condo/co-op price has averaged $178,400 over the past 12 months its highest annualized level since the summer of Source: Commentary and Data supplied by Brian Lego, the National Association of Home Builders Brian Lego is a senior economist at the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). His responsibilities include producing forecasts of housing data for state and metropolitan areas, as well as providing analyses of various economic and demographic issues that affect the U.S. housing market. Lego has been an economist for more than 10 years, with prior stops as the Director of Economic Analysis for NEMA and as an Economist for Moody s Economy.com. MHN ONLINE For more market statistics and reports, visit August

4 Apartment Transactions: Volume and Prices ($500,000+) Volume ($000,000) 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, Q 11 2Q 11 3Q 11 4Q 11 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q Source: PPR, a CoStar company No. Price Wtd. Avg. Quarter Prop. (Thousands) Units Price/Unit 4Q ,458 6,466,278 93,307 69,301 1Q ,176 5,377,564 69,301 77,597 2Q 10 1,550 6,582,673 97,341 67,625 3Q 10 1,533 10,088, ,897 84,142 4Q 10 1,987 12,445, ,452 81,104 1Q ,601 9,159, ,721 81,262 2Q 11 2,130 14,605, ,246 82,868 3Q 11 2,053 13,929, ,407 88,491 4Q 11 2,231 17,285, ,542 87,060 1Q ,051 11,989, ,108 89,403 2Q 2,421 16,246, ,816 89,852 3Q 2,602 18,164, ,986 91,285 4Q 3,556 27,778, , ,380 1Q ,193 30,244, , ,257 *Quarter to date Total Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding Government-Sponsored Enterprises Depository Institutions Agency-and-GSE-Backed Mortgage Pools 2012Q Q Apartment Equity REITs Performance Period to Date Performance (%) Dividend Yield (6-7-13) Price Return (6-7-13) Total Returns (as of ) Q-T-D Y-T-D Compound Annual Total Returns Through Prior Month s Close 1-Year 5-Year 10-Year 0.97% 9.04% 12.93% CMBS, CDO and other ABS Issues State and Local Governments Life Insurance Companies Source: National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts Unemployment Rate Seasonally adjusted, 16 years and over 9.0% Other Nonfarm Noncorporate Business $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 Billions Source: Federal Reserve Flow of Funds, Reis Inc. Percentage of Unemployed 8.5% 8.0% 7.5% 7.0% Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Jan. 7.5% 7.6% August 2013 Multi-Housing News

5 Top 10 Buildings with Most Units Sold: New York City Q Building Neighborhood Borough Units Median Price 250 West Street Tribeca 48 $2,823,098 Sky View Parc Flushing Queens 43 $660,000 Parc Place Battery Park City 39 $661,863 House Upper East Side 21 $2,327,749 One Bridge Park Heights 18 $1,285,000 Bell Tel Lofts Downtown 16 $917, John Deco Lofts Financial District 15 $565,000 Dumbo Landmark Condo Dumbo 14 $1,154,725 The Miraval Living Upper East Side 13 $767, Pine - The Collection Financial District 13 $1,145,000 Source: PropertyShark Market Pulse section compiled by Keat Foong, executive editor. To comment, kfoong@multi-housingnews.com. RECEN T MULT IFA MILY T R ANSAC T IONS $32,000,000 $34,685,000 Field House Apartments On the Green at Harbour Pointe SIZE: 108 UNITS CITY: SAN MATEO, CA LENDER: REGIONAL BANK SIZE: 294 UNITS CITY: MUKILTEO, LENDER: FREDDIE MAC WA $16,695,000 Soltva Apartments SIZE: 100 UNITS CITY: MINNEAPOLIS, LENDER: LIFE MN COMPANY Real Estate Capital 33 OFFICES COAST-TO-COAST northmarq.com August