MAR KET GLANCE SAN DIEGO OFFICE MARKET REPORT PROPERTY SERVICES DEVELOPMENT INVESTMENT FOURTH QUARTER 2015 PROPERTY SERVICES DEVELOPMENT INVESTMENT
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1 AT A SAN DIEGO OFFICE MARKET REPORT FOURTH QUARTER 215
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3 AT A NEW SUPPLY PUSHES VACANCY RATES HIGHER San Diego s regional economy has been buzzing and added a net total of 37,8 jobs in the 12 months ending November 215, or a 2.7% increase over the prior year s reading. The Education & Health Services (9,2 jobs) and Professional & Business Services (8,2 jobs) sector have notably accounted for 46% of the annual employment gains. Even though the 215 employment gains are trailing Moody s Analytics projection, the final month of the year will likely push the job growth rate over their 3.% projection. Meanwhile, San Diego s unemployment rate has dropped 12 basis points over the prior 12 months to 4.8%, and is hovering around its lowest point since 27. SAN DIEGO Office Market Q4 San Diego s office leasing market finished the fourth quarter with 274,695 sq. ft. of direct net absorption, increasing the 215 total to 652,69 sq. ft. Class A product accounted for the bulk of the absorption growth with tenants occupying a net total of 554,812 sq. ft. in 215. Despite the large absorption gains in Class A buildings, the direct vacancy rate increased 9 basis points to 11.%, as construction deliveries outpaced leasing demand. The Class B sector also experienced a direct absorption gain of 219,63 sq. ft. during the fourth quarter, pushing its yearly total back into positive territory with a net 97,797 sq. ft., which helped bring its vacancy rate down 1 basis points to 15.4%. Class A fullservice gross asking rents maintained their steady increase witnessed since their mid- 211 post-recession low, rising 2.45% to $3.14 per sq. ft. during 215. Meanwhile, Class B rents improved 6.6% to $2.35 since year-end 214. New supply additions totaled 963,151 sq. ft. in 215, with the largest construction delivery occurring Downtown when Cisterra Partners completed a 32, sq. ft. build-to-suit for Sempra Energy. One La Jolla Center in North San Diego also finished construction during the year, adding 35,952 sq. ft. of Class A space to the competitive market. At the end of 215, there were eight buildings under construction, including five 1% speculative buildings, largely concentrated in the I-5 Corridor which will add a combined 58,141 sq. ft. of competitive and owner-user space to the market through 217. There are also four buildings in North San Diego that are currently undergoing renovations, which will add another 348,5 sq. ft. of Class B space to the mark et. Looking ahead, the economic outlook remains positive, which in effect will spur demand and preserve negotiation leverage in the landlords favor for the foreseeable future. As a result, expect rental rates to continue to rise in the most pursued submarkets, especially in North San Diego as demand remains strong. in Thousands of SF 4, 3, 2, 1, Office Market Trends Direct Net Absorption Completions Direct Occupancy 96% 94% 92% 9% 88% 86% ANNUAL JOB GROWTH San Diego s economy expanded at a rate of 2.7% (or 37,8 jobs) during the 12 months ending November, which slightly trails the 3.% trajectory for 215. Education & Health Services, Professional & Business Services and Construction drove job growth with a net combined 23,2 jobs added. 12-MO DIRECT NET ABSORPTION The office market recorded its sixth consecutive year of occupancy gains. The I-15 Corridor captured 43% of the 215 absorption gains, but Downtown s Class A sector featured the largest gains compliments of Sempra Energy s build-to-suit. DIRECT VACANCY RATE Despite the healthy annual absorption gains, San Diego s direct vacancy rate increased 2 basis points to 13.4% during 215 as construction deliveries slightly outstripped leasing demand. OVERALL RENTS Asking rents climbed 5.% during 215 to $2.65 per sq. ft. The largest annual rate increase occurred in Downtown, which saw monthly rents grow 1.3% to $2.53 per sq. ft. UNDER CONSTRUCTION New supply will add approximately 58, sq. ft. of competitive and owner-user product to the I-5 Corridor, I-15 Corridor and North San Diego. in 215 Renovation activity has also picked up with 348, sq. ft. underway in North San Diego. 37.8K jobs 653K square feet 13.4 percent $2.65 per square feet 58K square feet -1, 84% 82% 8% *Arrows represent change from previous 12 months 3 PAGE
4 Q4 SAN DIEGO Office Market HISTORICAL TRENDS & FORECAST Employment Growth AT A Office Employment Growth Breakdown In Thousands 5 25 Office Jobs Added Total Jobs Added/Lost In Thousands Professional & Business Services Financial Activities Information Direct Net Absorption Direct Vacancy Rates 2, Class A Class B 24% Class A Class B 1,6 2% In Thousands of SF 1, % 12% 8% -8 4% -1,2 % $4 Rental Rates ($/SF/Yr. Full Service) Class A Class B 4, Construction Deliveries Spec/BTS Owner-occupied $36 3, $32 $28 $24 In Thousands of SF 2, 1, $2 PAGE 4
5 SUBMARKET STATISTICS AT A SAN DIEGO Office Market Q4 Submarket Total Inventory SF TOTAL SPACE AVAILABLE DIRECT VACANCY RATES DIRECT NET ABSORPTION OVERALL RENTAL RATES Direct Available Sublease Available Direct Vacancy Y-O-Y Change Current Qtr. Trailing 12- Months Avg Rents PSF/Yr Avg Rents PSF/Mo. Downtown 1,69,436 2,16, , % 1.6% 4,594 89,584 $3.33 $ % Class A 6,493, ,588 9, % -1.8% 4,427 43,48 $33.54 $ % Class B 4,197,2 1,312,177 81,5 3.8% 7.5% 167 (313,824) $26.85 $ % Central San Diego 13,856,472 2,64,587 85, %.3% 21,12 (41,562) $28.51 $ % Class A 4,262, ,4 42, % 1.7% (72,151) $34.18 $2.85.6% Class B 9,593,7 1,518,547 42, % -.3% 21,12 3,589 $26.65 $ % North San Diego 18,917,43 3,94, , % 1.1% 112,57 112,573 $35.99 $3. 4.5% Class A 9,34,167 1,353, , % 2.8% 27,896 22,877 $44.42 $ % Class B 9,883,236 1,741,596 33, % -.5% 84,674 89,696 $3.28 $ % I-15 Corridor 8,247, , , % -4.3% 18,13 282,246 $28.39 $ % Class A 3,895, , ,692 5.% -4.1% 13, 89,24 $33.63 $ % Class B 4,351, ,42 56, % -4.5% 5,13 193,222 $26.68 $ % SR-78 Corridor 2,216,555 35,643 2, % -4.3% 119,616 $26.29 $ % Class A 584, , % -4.1% 46,712 $32.9 $ % Class B 1,631, ,217 2, % -4.5% 72,94 $22.51 $ % I-5 Corridor 11,92,597 1,773,96 25, % -.8% 118, ,36 $35.15 $ % Class A 5,344, ,991 14, % -3.8% 9,769 47,39 $38.83 $ % Class B 5,748,79 83,969 19, %.% 18,53 67,267 $32.25 $ % South Bay 2,18,93 317,379 5, % -.8% 16,739 $23.82 $ % Class A 447, ,11 5,12 3.6% -3.8% 17,9 $27.3 $ % Class B 1,66,51 172, %.% (27) $21.82 $ % East County 1,42,821 72, % 2.9% (4,893) $26.84 $2.24.% Class A 233,83 21,58 8.2% -.4% 894 $29.55 $ % Class B 1,168,991 51, % 3.6% (41,787) $26.57 $ % Y-O-Y % Change San Diego Totals Total Inventory SF TOTAL SPACE AVAILABLE DIRECT VACANCY RATES DIRECT NET ABSORPTION OVERALL RENTAL RATES Direct Sublease Direct Y-O-Y Trailing 12- Avg Rents Avg Rents Y-O-Y % Available Available Vacancy Change Current Qtr. Months PSF/Yr PSF/Mo. Change Class A 3,296,35 4,377, , %.9% 55,92 554,812 $37.69 $ % Class B 38,235,282 6,44,56 623, % -.1% 219,63 97,797 $28.17 $ % Overall 68,531,632 1,818,349 1,511, %.2% 274, ,69 $31.74 $ % METHODOLOGY TOTAL INVENTORY: The total inventory includes all single and multi-tenant leased office buildings with at least 25, square feet of gross rentable square footage. TOTAL SPACE AVAILABLE: Available space currently being marketed which is either physically vacant or occupied. DIRECT SPACE: Space that is being offered for lease directly from the landlord or owner of a building. Under construction space is not included in space available figures. SUBLEASE SPACE: Space that has been leased by a tenant and is being offered for lease back to the market by the tenant with the lease obligation. DIRECT OCCUPANCY RATE: Direct space physically occupied divided by the total rentable inventory. DIRECT NET ABSORPTION: The net change in occupied direct space over a given period of time. UNDER CONSTRUCTION: Office buildings which have commenced construction as evidenced by site excavation or foundation work. DIRECT ASKING RENTS: The quoted full-service asking rent for available space expressed in dollars per sq. ft. 5 PAGE
6 Q4 SAN DIEGO Office Market AT A ABOUT PMRG Headquartered in Houston, Texas, PM Realty Group (PMRG) is one of the nation s leading real estate companies focusing on comprehensive property services, development and acquisitions. With a strategic presence in 3 markets, PMRG provides the highest quality services to its clients and investors. PMRG s clients and investors include large financial institutions, advisors and high net worth individuals. By capitalizing on the team s experience and expertise, PMRG has the ability to undertake large and challenging management, leasing, development and acquisition projects. PMRG s portfolio, including projects managed for third parties, includes commercial office buildings, mixed-use centers, corporate headquarters, industrial buildings, medical facilities, high-rise multifamily buildings and re-appropriated military facilities. Our goal is to generate exceptional returns for our clients and investors by focusing on real estate fundamentals. For additional information, visit S E R V I C E S PMRG focuses on creating value for its clients and offers a full spectrum of real estate services, including: Brokerage Services Office and Industrial Landlord and Tenant Advisory Healthcare Real Estate Services Investment Sales and Capital Markets Golf Course and Land Sales Management Services Property Management Construction Management Development Services National Market Research Seattle Minneapolis Boston Springfield Hartford PAGE 6 Sacramento East Bay San Francisco Los Angeles Honolulu Irvine Orange County Inland Empire San Diego Hilo Denver Midland Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex College Station Austin San Antonio Houston The Woodlands ClearLake Chicago Birmingham New Orleans Pittsburgh Atlanta Tampa Philadelphia Washington, DC Charlotte Orlando New York Suburban DC/Maryland West Palm Beach Boca Raton Divisional HQ Office PMRG Presence
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8 AT A Q4 Jim Proehl Executive Vice President Managing Director jproehl@pmrg.com # Oliver Fleener Senior Vice President, Brokerage Services ofleener@pmrg.com # Tim Joyce Senior Vice President, Director of Capital Markets tjoyce@pmrg.com #83238 Scott Kuklish Executive Vice President skuklish@pmrg.com # Eileen Doody Senior Vice President, Brokerage Services edoody@pmrg.com #96514 Ken Arimitsu Vice President, Brokerage Services karimistsu@pmrg.com # Mark Mattis Senior Vice President mmattis@pmrg.com # Ariel Guerrero Senior Vice President Research (713) aguerrero@pmrg.com Kristen Burney Vice President Director of Marketing (713) kburney@pmrg.com Doug Berry Vice President Creative Director (713) dberry@pmrg.com PM Realty Group 1821 Von Karman Avenue, Suite 5 Irvine, CA #
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