Recovery? Growth? Jobs? Capital Investment?

Transcription

1 Recovery? Growth? Jobs? Capital Investment? Turning the Corner? Presented by Dr. Ivan Miestchovich, Jr., Director Institute for Economic Development & Real Estate Research The University of New Orleans

2 U.S. Economy

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9 Going Forward

10 Unemployment Rates by State January 2012 ND SD NE KS TX OK MN WI AR IL IA LA MS MO WA OR ID WY MT CA NV UT AZ CO HI AK NM ME NY SC AL FL GA IN KY NC OH PA TN VA WV MI VT NH MA RI CT NJ DE MD DC 10

11 New Orleans Metro Job Overview The New Orleans metro area had 609,600 jobs in 2005 before Katrina. At the low point after the storm, the area had just 425,800 jobs (70% of pre-katrina). By October 2011, employment in New Orleans had grown to 529,300 jobs (86.8%). By the end of 2013, 531,500 jobs are forecast (87.2%). 11 Prepared by UNO Division of Business & Economic Research

12 N. O. Metro Total Employment Jobs (1000's) Jan-03 Jun-03 Nov-03 Apr-04 Sep-04 Feb-05 Jul-05 Dec-05 May-06 Oct-06 Mar-07 Aug-07 Jan-08 Jun-08 Nov-08 Apr-09 Sep-09 Feb-10 Jul-10 Dec-10 May-11 Oct-11 Mar-12 Aug-12 Jan-13 Jun-13 Nov Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, DBER Prepared by UNO Division of Business & Economic Research

13 New Orleans Metro Total Population 13 Sources: US Census, GCR & Assoc., System Solutions Consulting Prepared by UNO Division of Business & Economic Research

14 Employment , Quarter 3 Orleans, Jefferson and St. Tammany Parishes 300, , , , ,000 50,000 0 Q1/2001 Q1/2005 August 2005 Q1/2006 Q4/2007 Q4/2008 Q4/2009 Q3/2011 Jefferson 212, , , , , , , ,614 Orleans 261, , , , , , , ,890 St. Tammany 57,840 67,369 69,457 65,704 75,516 74,785 75,287 77, Source: Labor Market Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages Program

15 N. O. Metro Construction Activity Per Month $ Millions pre-k 2005 post-k Non-building Non-residential Residential Source: McGraw Hill Construction, Dodge 15

16 Foreclosures per Household New Orleans Metro vs. US 0.35% 0.30% 0.25% Percentage 0.20% 0.15% 0.10% 0.05% 0.00% 2007 Avg 2008 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q1 New Orleans Metro US 16 Source: RealtyTrac Prepared by UNO Division of Business & Economic Research

17 Single Family Average Price & Units Sold Metro 2004 to 2011 $235,000 17,000 $220,000 15,500 Average Price $205,000 $190,000 $175,000 $160,000 $145,000 $130,000 14,000 12,500 11,000 9,500 8,000 Units Sold $115,000 6,500 $100, Ave Price Units Sold 5, Source: New Orleans Metropolitan Association of Realtors

18 Greater New Orleans Area Single Family- Active Listings vs. Sold Listings 1989 thru 2011 FOURTH QUARTER Source: LATTER & BLUM Research Division Numbers are in hundreds for existing residential property only. Active Sold 18 This representation is based in whole or in part on data supplied by New Orleans Metropolitan Association of Realtors, St. Tammany Association of Realtors, Tangipahoa Board of Realtors, Baton Rouge Board of Realtors or their Multiple Listing Services. Neither the Boards, Associations, nor their MLS guarantees or is in any way responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by the Boards, Associations or their MLS may not reflect all real estate activity for all years.

19 Single Family Average Price & Units Sold Jefferson Parish 2004 to 2011 Average Price $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 Unit Sold $ Ave Price Units Sold 1, Source: New Orleans Metropolitan Association of Realtors

20 Metairie Area Single Family- Active Listings vs. Sold Listings 1989 thru 2011 FOURTH QUARTER Active Sold Source: LATTER & BLUM Research Division 20 This representation is based in whole or in part on data supplied by New Orleans Metropolitan Association of Realtors, St. Tammany Association of Realtors, Tangipahoa Board of Realtors, Baton Rouge Board of Realtors or their Multiple Listing Services. Neither the Boards, Associations, nor their MLS guarantees or is in any way responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by the Boards, Associations or their MLS may not reflect all real estate activity for all years.

21 Kenner Area Single Family- Active Listings vs. Sold Listings 1989 thru 2011 FOURTH QUARTER Active Sold Source: LATTER & BLUM Research Division 21 This representation is based in whole or in part on data supplied by New Orleans Metropolitan Association of Realtors, St. Tammany Association of Realtors, Tangipahoa Board of Realtors, Baton Rouge Board of Realtors or their Multiple Listing Services. Neither the Boards, Associations, nor their MLS guarantees or is in any way responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by the Boards, Associations or their MLS may not reflect all real estate activity for all years.

22 Single Family Average Price & Units Sold Orleans Parish 2004 to 2011 Average Price $275,000 $250,000 $225,000 $200,000 $175,000 $150,000 $125,000 $100, Ave Price Units Sold 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Units Sold 22 Source: New Orleans Metropolitan Association of Realtors

23 Uptown Area Single Family- Active Listings vs. Sold Listings 1989 thru 2011 FOURTH QUARTER 1,400 1,200 1, Active Sold Source: LATTER & BLUM Research Division 23 This representation is based in whole or in part on data supplied by New Orleans Metropolitan Association of Realtors, St. Tammany Association of Realtors, Tangipahoa Board of Realtors, Baton Rouge Board of Realtors or their Multiple Listing Services. Neither the Boards, Associations, nor their MLS guarantees or is in any way responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by the Boards, Associations or their MLS may not reflect all real estate activity for all years.

24 Lakefront Area Single Family- Active Listings vs. Sold Listings 1989 thru 2011 FOURTH QUARTER Active Sold Source: LATTER & BLUM Research Division 24 This representation is based in whole or in part on data supplied by New Orleans Metropolitan Association of Realtors, St. Tammany Association of Realtors, Tangipahoa Board of Realtors, Baton Rouge Board of Realtors or their Multiple Listing Services. Neither the Boards, Associations, nor their MLS guarantees or is in any way responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by the Boards, Associations or their MLS may not reflect all real estate activity for all years.

25 Single Family Average Price & Units Sold St. Tammany Parish 2004 to 2011 Average Price $275,000 $250,000 $225,000 $200,000 $175,000 $150,000 $125,000 $100, Ave Price Units Sold 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Units Sold 25 Source: New Orleans Metropolitan Association of Realtors

26 Mandeville Area Single Family- Active Listings vs. Sold Listings 1989 thru 2011 FOURTH QUARTER /2011 Active Sold Source: LATTER & BLUM Research Division 26 This representation is based in whole or in part on data supplied by New Orleans Metropolitan Association of Realtors, St. Tammany Association of Realtors, Tangipahoa Board of Realtors, Baton Rouge Board of Realtors or their Multiple Listing Services. Neither the Boards, Associations, nor their MLS guarantees or is in any way responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by the Boards, Associations or their MLS may not reflect all real estate activity for all years.

27 Single Family Average Price & Units Sold St. Bernard Parish 2004 to 2011 Average Price $135,000 $120,000 $105,000 $90,000 $75,000 $60,000 $45,000 $30,000 $15,000 $ Ave Price Units Sold Units Sold 27 Source: New Orleans Metropolitan Association of Realtors

28 Single Family Average Price & Units Sold Plaquemines Parish 2004 to 2011 $325,000 $300,000 $275,000 $250,000 $225,000 $200,000 $175,000 $150,000 $125,000 $100, Ave Price Units Sold Source: New Orleans Metropolitan Association of Realtors

29 Greater New Orleans Area Months of Inventory Months Months Source: LATTER & BLUM Research Division 29 This representation is based in whole or in part on data supplied by New Orleans Metropolitan Association of Realtors, St. Tammany Association of Realtors, Tangipahoa Board of Realtors, Baton Rouge Board of Realtors or their Multiple Listing Services. Neither the Boards, Associations, nor their MLS guarantees or is in any way responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by the Boards, Associations or their MLS may not reflect all real estate activity for all years.

30 Area by Area Months of Inventory Snapshot 2011 VS 2012 East Jefferson Garden/Uptown Metairie River Parishes Lakefront/Gentilly Historic District West Bank W. St. Tammany E. St. Tammany Source: LATTER & BLUM Research Division This representation is based in whole or in part on data supplied by New Orleans Metropolitan Association of Realtors, St. Tammany Association of Realtors, Tangipahoa Board of Realtors, Baton Rouge Board of Realtors or their Multiple Listing Services. Neither the Boards, Associations, nor their MLS guarantees or is in any way responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by the Boards, Associations or their MLS may not reflect all real estate activity for all years.

31 Single Family Building Permits New Orleans Metro: , March 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 Annual Average 3,779 3,000 2,000 1, Mar 2011 Mar Source: US Census Bureau, Residential Permits

32 Single Family Building Permits St. Tammany Parish: , March 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 Annual Average 1,731 1,500 1, Mar 2011 Mar Source: US Census Bureau, Residential Permits

33 Macro Trends and the Apartment Market Recovering Economy Household Formations Undoubling Mortgage Market Fallout Foreclosures willful and otherwise Displaced Owners and Renters Homeownership Postponed Ramped Up Loan Qualification Housing Price Uncertainty Buy Now? Wait? Rent. 33

34 Apartment Market Select U.S. Cities Ten Highest & Lowest Occupancy Rates, N.O.: 92.6% U.S.: 90.25% 75.0 San Francisco, CA Oakland, CA Los Angeles, CA Washington, DC Denver, CO San Jose, CA New York, NY Orange County, CA Baltimore, MD Portland, OR New Orleans Metro Jacksonville, FL Kansas City, MO/KS Orlando, FL Syracuse, NY Columbus, OH Cleveland, OH Detroit, MI Houston, TX Dayton, OH Providence, RI 34 Source: Integra Realty Resources & Institute for Economic Development & Real Estate Research Surveys

35 Apartment Average Rent & Occupancy Metro 2004 to 2011 $1, % $1, % $ % $ % $ % $ % $ Pre K '05 Post K ' % Ave Rent Occupancy 35 Source: UNO Real Estate Center Surveys

36 Apartment Average Rent & Occupancy Orleans Parish 2004 to 2011 $1, % $1, % $1,000 $800 $600 $ % 85.0% 80.0% $ % $ Pre K '05 Post K ' % Ave Rent Occupancy 36 Source: UNO Real Estate Center Surveys

37 Apartment Average Rent & Occupancy Jefferson Parish 2004 to 2011 $1, % $ % $750 $600 $450 $ % 85.0% 80.0% $ % $ Pre K '05 Post K ' % Ave Rent Occupancy 37 Source: UNO Real Estate Center Surveys

38 Apartment Average Rent & Occupancy St. Tammany Parish 2004 to 2011 $1, % $1, % $ % $ % $ % $ % $ Pre K '05 Post K ' % Ave Rent Occupancy 38 Source: UNO Real Estate Center Surveys

39 Office Suburban Market Select U.S. Cities Ten Highest & Lowest Occupancy Rates, N.O.: 84.6% U.S.: 83.02% Nashville, TN Pittsburgh, PA Greenville, SC Dayton, OH Fort Worth, TX San Francisco, CA Long Island, NY Los Angeles, CA Cleveland, OH Memphis, TN New Orleans Metro Milwaukee, WI Detroit, MI Jacksonville, FL Phoenix, AZ Indianapolis, IN Tampa, FL Tulsa, OK Sacramento, CA Las Vegas NV Chicago, IL 39 * New Orleans Metro occupancy rate includes Suburban and CBD market sectors Source: Integra Realty Resources & Institute for Economic Development & Real Estate Research Surveys

40 Office CBD Market Select U.S. Cities Ten Highest & Lowest Occupancy Rates, N.O.: 84.6% U.S.: 83.41% Charlotte,NC Boise,ID Philadelphia,PA Portland,OR Washington,DC Oakland,CA New York,NY Pittsburgh,PA Fort Worth,TX Los Angeles,CA New Orleans Metro Cleveland,OH Atlanta,GA Tulsa,OK Las Vegas,NV Detroit,MI San Antonio,TX Dallas,TX Hartford,CT Dayton,OH Syracuse,NY 40 * New Orleans Metro occupancy rate includes Suburban and CBD market sectors Source: Integra Realty Resources & Institute for Economic Development & Real Estate Research Surveys

41 Office Average Rent & Occupancy Metro 2004 to 2011 $16.50 $16.25 $16.00 $15.75 $15.50 $15.25 $15.00 $14.75 $14.50 $ Pre K '05 Post K ' % 95.0% 90.0% 85.0% 80.0% 75.0% 70.0% Ave Rent Occupancy 41 Source: UNO Real Estate Center Surveys

42 Office Average Rent & Occupancy Orleans Parish 2004 to 2011 $ % $ % $15.50 $15.00 $14.50 $ % 85.0% 80.0% $ % $ Pre K '05 Post K ' % Ave Rent Occupancy 42 Source: UNO Real Estate Center Surveys

43 CBD Class A Skyline Current Class A Inventory: 9,674,351 SF in 16 buildings 61% completed between 1980 and 1985 Last addition (now Benson Tower) in

44 Major Oil/Gas Retreat from Market Covington, LA 44

45 Who has filled the space Legal Governmental Health Software/new entrepreneurial wave Shorter term special projects Katrina related (engineers, insurers, etc.) BP related (legal, research) DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HOSPITALS 45

46 CBD Class A Tower Percentage Occupancy

47 But... In 2011, there was 528,375 square feet more of occupied office space in the CBD than in 2010 Benson Tower - 488,000 SF Now 93% leased Exchange Centre- 400,000 SF Now 31% leased 47

48 CBD Class A Tower Office Rental Rates $20.00 $18.00 $16.00 $14.00 $12.00 $10.00 $8.00 $6.00 $4.00 $2.00 $0.00 $18.00 $

49 No Longer in Service as Office 49

50 Office Average Rent & Occupancy Jefferson Parish 2004 to 2011 $ % $18.50 $18.00 $ % 90.0% $ % $16.50 $16.00 $ % 75.0% $ Pre K '05 Post K ' % Ave Rent Occupancy 50 Source: UNO Real Estate Center Surveys

51 Historic Metairie Class A Occupancy

52 Metairie Class A Rental Rates $25.00 $22.60 $22.50 $20.00 $15.00 $10.00 $5.00 $

53 Office Average Rent & Occupancy St. Tammany Parish 2004 to 2011 $18.00 $17.50 $17.00 $16.50 $16.00 $15.50 $15.00 $14.50 $14.00 $13.50 $ Pre K '05 Post K ' % 95.0% 90.0% 85.0% 80.0% 75.0% 70.0% Ave Rent Occupancy 53 Source: UNO Real Estate Center Surveys

54 Retail Market Select U.S. Cities Ten Highest & Lowest Occupancy Rates, N.O.: 91.6% U.S.: 90.25% San Francisco, CA Oakland, CA Los Angeles, CA Washington, DC Denver, CO San Jose, CA New York, NY Orange County, CA Baltimore, MD Portland, OR New Orleans Metro Jacksonville, FL Kansas City, MO/KS Orlando, FL Syracuse, NY Columbus, OH Cleveland, OH Detroit, MI Houston, TX Dayton, OH Providence, RI 54 Source: Integra Realty Resources & Institute for Economic Development & Real Estate Research Surveys

55 Retail Average Rent & Occupancy Metro 2004 to 2011 (Excludes Freestanding) $17.00 $16.50 $16.00 $15.50 $15.00 $14.50 $14.00 $13.50 $13.00 $ Pre K '05 Post K ' % 95.0% 90.0% 85.0% 80.0% 75.0% 70.0% Ave Rent Occupancy 55 Source: UNO Real Estate Center Surveys

56 Retail Average Rent & Occupancy Orleans Parish 2004 to 2011 (Excludes Freestanding) $ % $ % $ % $ % $ % $ % $ % $ % $ Pre K '05 Post K ' % Ave Rent Occupancy 56 Source: UNO Real Estate Center Surveys

57 Retail Average Rent & Occupancy Jefferson Parish 2004 to 2011 (Excludes Freestanding) $16.00 $15.25 $14.50 $13.75 $13.00 $12.25 $11.50 $10.75 $ Pre K '05 Post K ' % 95.0% 90.0% 85.0% 80.0% 75.0% 70.0% Ave Rent Occupancy 57 Source: UNO Real Estate Center Surveys

58 Retail Average Rent & Occupancy St. Tammany Parish 2004 to 2011 (Excludes Freestanding) $16.75 $16.00 $15.25 $14.50 $13.75 $13.00 $12.25 $11.50 $10.75 $ Pre K '05 Post K ' % 95.0% 90.0% 85.0% 80.0% 75.0% 70.0% Ave Rent Occupancy 58 Source: UNO Real Estate Center Surveys

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66 Dr. Ivan Miestchovich, Jr., Director Institute for Economic Development & Real Estate Research The University of New Orleans 2000 Lakeshore Drive 413 Kirschman Hall New Orleans, LA Phone: Fax: Web: or