UDIA WA PROPERTY MARKET STATISTICS

Transcription

1 UDIA WA PROPERTY MARKET STATISTICS OCTOBER 217 1

2 IN THIS ISSUE KEY TRENDS INDUSTRY UPDATE 3 4 ECONOMY RESIDENTIAL LAND DEVELOPMENT RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY SETTLEMENTS RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY MARKET RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION SECTOR

3 KEY TRENDS ECONOMY Current Figure M/Q Change 3 M/Q Rolling Av. YOY Change Official Cash Rate Target (RBA) 1.5% (Oct) % (M) 1.5% (M).% Discounted Variable Mortgage Rate (RBA) 4.45% (Oct) bps (M) 4.45% (M) -5 bps Estimated Resident Population - WA 2,575,97m (Mar).3% (Q) 2,569,62m (Q).7% Unemployment Rate - WA (Seasonally Adj.) 5.7 (Sep) -11 bps (M) 5.6 (M) -36 bps Retail Turnover - WA (Original) $2.74 b (Jun) -1.% (M) $2.73b (M) 1.2% Consumer Price Index - Greater Perth 19.5 (Sep).5% (Q) 19.2 (Q).8% Wage Price Index - WA 127. (Jun).3% (Q) (Q) 1.4% RESIDENTIAL LAND DEVELOPMENT SECTOR Current Figure M/Q Change 3 M/Q Rolling Av. YOY Change Lot Sales (UDIA Land Snapshot ) 313 (Oct 217) 1.% (M) (M) -12.8% RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION SECTOR Current Figure M/Q Change 3 M/Q Rolling Av. YOY Change Dwelling Approvals - WA (Original) 1,971 (Sep) 23.7% (M) 1,732 (M) 11.4% Private Sector House Approvals - WA (Original) 1,155 (Sep) -11.3% (M) 1,245 (M) -1.1% New Dwelling Loans Owner-Occupation - WA (Original) 6,72 (Aug) 9.7% (M) 5,853 (M) -5.1% Dwelling Construction Starts - WA (Original) 4,537 (Jun) -7.3% (Q) 4,734 (Q) -21.2% House Approvals - Greater Perth (Original) 971 (Sep) -8.7% (M) 1,37 (M) -14.9% Multi-Unit Approvals - Greater Perth (Original) 786 (Sep) 252.5% (M) 438 (M) 94.1% RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY MARKET Current Figure M/Q Change 3 M/Q Rolling Av. YOY Change Median House Price - Perth (Landgate/REIWA) $51, (Jun) -.9% (Q) $516,667 (Q) -4.7% House Sales - Perth (Landgate/REIWA) 5,714 (Jun) -7.8% (Q) 5,844 (Q) -4.4% Unit Sales - Perth (Landgate/REIWA) 1,311 (Jun) -9.8% (Q) 1,329 (Q) 6.3% House and Unit Listings - Perth (REIWA) 13,35 (Sep) -7.1% (Q) 13,969 (Q) -8.% Dwelling Loans Owner-Occupation - WA (Original) 4,429 (Aug) 9.2% (M) 4,244 (M) 5.5% Established Dwelling Loans Owner-Occupation - WA (Original) 3,59 (Aug) 14.3% (M) 2,841 (M) 6.% FHOG Applications - WA (Original) 588 (Sep) -2.% (M) 637 (M) -6.7% Investment Housing Loans - WA (Original) $773.9m (Aug) 13.3% (M) $743.7m (M) 5.8% REIWA Average Selling Days - Perth 7 (Sep) 2.9% (Q) 69. (Q) 4.5% Residential Rental Market Current Figure M/Q Change 3 M/Q Rolling Av. YOY Change REIWA Median Rent - Perth 35 (Sep) -2.8% (Q) 36 (Q) -7.9% REIWA Vacancy Rate - Perth 6.9% (Sep) -4 bps (Q) 6.9% (Q) 3 bps 3

4 UDIA WA INDUSTRY UPDATE Throughout October and the early part of November we have seen the release of a variety of data and information pertinent to this publication and the development industry. At the beginning of the month, the Australian Bureau of Statistics released the final package of 216 Census data. This release contained much anticipated data relating to the labour force and travel to work information. CHRIS GREEN Director of Policy & Research UDIA WA Whilst the mining industry is often the focal point of the WA economy, according to the Census, approximately 46, people are employed in the mining industry, while close to 92, are employed in construction. Employment in the mining sector has decreased marginally between 211 and 216, while the number of people employed in construction has increased by close to 7, people. Within Greater Perth, the construction industry was the second largest employer behind the Health Care and Social Assistance industry. Demand for health care and aged care facilities is likely to continue to increase, as demonstrated by the number of persons aged 65 or over increasing by 83, between 211 and 216, with persons within this age bracket accounting for 14% of the WA population. The most common occupations across WA are professionals (2.5%); Technicians and Trades Workers (16.2%); and Clerical and Administrative Workers (13.%). Although the total number of people working both full time and part time increased, more people are working fewer hours than they did in 211. Turning our attention to more immediate trends and those at the national level, on November 1 the Reserve Bank conceded in its quarterly statement that it no longer expected inflationary pressures to build. GDP projections for the next three years remained stable with a modest 2.5% growth forecast for 217, 3.25% in 218 and 3.25% in 219. Across the nation, unemployment is expected to remain at 5.5% before lowering to 5.25% in 219. The Reserve Bank now anticipates inflation to run at 2%, rising to 2.25% in December 218 and remaining so through to the end of 219. As such, most commentators appear uncertain about the timing of any future interest rate increase. Whilst these forecasts represent national trends, the likely continuation of low interest rates remains positive for the property development industry. At the State level, ABS monthly building figures released in early November showed a 2% increase (trend data) in the number of building approvals for September. This is the fifth month in a row that dwelling approvals have increased, reflecting a growing level of activity in the new home market. Importantly for the broader economy, the value of residential building in WA is also up, totalling $511.9 million (trend data) for the month. Another encouraging indicator is consumer confidence figures from the Chamber of Commerce and Industry (CCI) for the September quarter reflecting the highest consumer confidence in almost three years, with employment condition concerns also easing (here). Looking more closely at local trends, the data within this edition of Urban Intelligence shows that employment fell in September to 5.7%, dropping back from the slight rise in August. The number of employed persons has increased by 3.6% over the past year to total 1.365m. Mirroring the upturn in building approvals, total lot sales were up 1.% for October. This suggests building approvals are likely to hold the gains made moving into the Christmas period. However, whilst sales remained up, the median lot price was down 5.8% to $22,895 with sales over $28, down some 3.7%. New dwelling applications for the FHOG tapered off by 19.1%, following the spike in applications prior to the closing of the Government grant boost. Nevertheless, the number of FHOG applications remains consistent with the long term average. Similarly, there is positive sentiment amongst investors with investment in housing dwelling finance increasing 13.3% in August to total $773.8m. This is 5.8% higher than last year but under represented nationally accounting for just 6.1% of national investment for August. Given the current under performance in this area, it will be interesting to monitor investment and the potential impact of the recently announced foreign owner s surcharge. 4

5 ECONOMY Key Points of Interest Western Australia s unemployment rate fell 11 basis points (bps) in September to 5.7%, 36bps lower than the same time last year (6.%) and 34bps higher than the national rate of 5.3%. In September the number of employed persons in WA rose.9% month-on-month (MoM) to million, an increase of 3.6% year-on-year (YoY). WA s state participation rate increased 48bps over September to 67.9%, 156bps higher than the same time last year and 25bps above the national rate of 65.8%. Standard variable (5.2%), discounted variable (4.45%) and three-year fixed (4.1%) owner-occupier mortgage rates for October remained unchanged from the month before. Standard variable and discounted variable both fell 5bps from the same time last year, while 3-year fixed rates rose 1bps. WA retail turnover for August rose 1.2% to $2.78 billion, while retail turnover for Australia also increased 2.8% to $25.3 billion. Retail turnover for WA made up 11.% of national retail turnover, up from 1.9% in June 17, but down from 11.2% at the same time last year. Home Loan Rates (% p.a.) Employed Persons (,) 14 8 Labour Market, WA (ABS) Sep-6 Sep-7 Sep-8 Sep-9 Sep-1 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep-17 Employed Persons (Original) Unemployment Rate (Seas. Adj.) Unemployment Rate (Original) Source: ABS 622., T8 Mortgage Rates, Australia 9.5 Standard Variable 8.5 Discounted Variable 7.5 Three Year Fixed Oct-7 Oct-8 Oct-9 Oct-1 Oct-11 Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17 Unemployment Rate (%) Change in Population (Quarterley) Population Change, WA (ABS) Mar-7 Mar-8 Mar-9 Mar-1 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar Population Growth (%) Year-on-year change in Index (calculated quarterly) Consumer Price Index (ABS) Source: RBA, F Sep-7 Sep-8 Sep-9 Sep-1 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep Natural Increase Net Overseas Migration Net Interstate Migration Annual Growth -.3 CPI - Perth (Housing) YOY Change CPI - Perth (All Groups) YOY Change CPI - Australia (Housing) YOY Change CPI - Australia (All Groups) YOY Change Source: ABS 311., T2 & 4 (Original Data) Source: ABS 641, T 1, 5 & 7. US Dollar, European Euro & UK Pound Sterling (monthly average) Australian Dollar Exchange Rate United States Dollar European Euro UK Pound Sterling Chinese Renminbi Chinese Renminbi (monthly average) Retail Turnowver Growth (p.a).13 Retail Turnover (ABS) Aug-7 Aug-8 Aug-9 Aug-1 Aug-11 Aug-12 Aug-13 Aug-14 Aug-15 Aug-16 Aug Oct-11 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16 Apr-17 Oct-17 Source: RBA, F YoY WA (Original) YoY Australia (Original) YoY WA (Seas. Adj.) YoY Australia (Seas. Adj.) Source: ABS 851, T3 5

6 RESIDENTIAL LAND DEVELOPMENT SECTOR Key Points of Interest UDIA s Land Snapshot survey results for October showed total lot sales increased 1.% over the month, but fell 12.8% from the same time last year. Included within the total lot sales: combined sales below $2, were up 11.9% month-on-month (MoM) and decreased 21.% year-on-year (YoY); combined sales between $2,-$28, increased 15.4% MoM and fell 4.8% YoY; and combined sales above $28, were down 3.7% MoM and 7.6% YoY. The median lot price fell 5.8% over the month to $22,895,.8% lower than at the same time the previous year, impacted by the lower proportion of sales in the higher categories. Weekly category lot sales UDIA Land Snapshot Survey - Lot Sales Oct-12 Apr-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16 Apr-17 Oct-17 Under $2, Rolling 12 Month Average $2, - $28, Rolling 12 Month Average $28, plus Rolling 12 Month Average Total Sales Rolling 12 Month Average Source: UDIA Land Snapshot Survey Total weekly lot sales Monthly vacant land settlements by metropolitan corridor for July, 217 (Landgate) Monthly Vacant Land Settlements by Corridor Jul-17 Vacant Land Regions Settlements Median Price Median Lot Size North-East Metro 19 $ 242, 41 North-West Metro 27 $ 214,4 35 South-East Metro 33 $ 185, 415 South-West Metro 23 $ 24, 283 Peel 34 $ 22, 51 Top five suburbs for vacant land settlements for the three months to August, 217 (Landgate) TOP SUBURBS FOR VACANT LAND SETTLEMENTS Three months to 31 August Settlements Median Price Median Size 1 PIARA WATERS 39 $269, ALKIMOS 34 $187, BALDIVIS 32 $182, BRABHAM 22 $247, LANDSDALE 21 $33, 5. Vacant Land Settlements/month Greater Perth Corridor Vacant Lot Settlements North East North West South East South West Peel Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Median lot price per month $35, $25, $15, Greater Perth Corridor Median Prices North East North West South East South West Peel Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Median lot size/month Greater Perth Corridor Median Lot Size North East North West South East South West Peel Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Note: Settlement figures on this page are based on Landgate data available at the time of publication and may not represent all settlements during the period. 6

7 RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY SETTLEMENTS 3 Median Price/Settlements Greater Perth $58, $6, Median Price Detached and Non-Detached Dwellings: Greater Perth $56, $54, $52, $5, $5, $4, $3, 1 $48, $2, 5 $46, $1, $44, Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Median Price Detached Houses Settlements Detached Houses $- Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Median Price Detached Houses Median Price Non-Detached Dwellings $32, $3, $28, $26, $24, $22, $2, $18, $16, Aug-15 Vacant Land Settlements, Median Price: Greater Perth and FHOG Applications Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Median Price Vacant Land Settlement Vacant Land First Home Buyer Grant Applications - new build Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug Source: Landgate/UDIA/Treasury (WA) Regional Dwelling Settlements August 217 Non-Detached Housing Wheatbelt Non-Detached Housing South West Non-Detached Housing Pilbara Non-Detached Housing Mid West Non-Detached Housing Great Southern Non-Detached Housing Goldfields Esperance Non-Detached Housing Gascoyne Detached Housing Wheatbelt Detached Housing South West Detached Housing Pilbara Detached Housing Mid West Detached Housing Great Southern Detached Housing Goldfields Esperance Detached Housing Gascoyne Vacant Land Wheatbelt Vacant Land South West Vacant Land Pilbara Vacant Land Mid West Vacant Land Great Southern Vacant Land Goldfields Esperance Vacant Land Gascoyne Regional Land Settlements August TOP SUBURBS FOR MEDIUM DENSITY SETTLEMENTS Three months to 31 August Settlements Median Price Median Size 1 SCARBOROUGH 14 $495, PERTH 63 $473, EAST PERTH 57 $599, SOUTH PERTH 57 $597, YOKINE 51 $4, 222. TOP SUBURBS FOR DETACHED HOUSING SETTLEMENTS Three months to 31 August Settlements Median Price Median Size 1 CANNING VALE 75 $558, THORNLIE 7 $417, ELLENBROOK 69 $42, PERTH 11 $85, BALDIVIS 53 $4, 553. Source: Landgate/UDIA Top suburbs for detached housing and medium density settlements over the three months to August 217. Note: Settlement figures on this page are based on Landgate data available at the time of publication and may not represent all settlements during the period. 7

8 RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY MARKET Key Points of Interest Total owner-occupier housing finance commitments in WA for August increased 9.7% on a monthly basis to 6,72, 5.1% below those at the same time last year. This makes up 1.1% of the national total (59,878). Included within the total number of owner-occupier housing finance figures are: commitments for the construction of dwellings fell 4.4% month-on-month (MoM) and rose 6.7% year-on-year (YoY) to 1,12; commitments for the purchase of new dwellings increased 19.6% MoM and fell 4.9% YoY to 25; and commitments for the purchase of established dwellings were up 13.1% MoM and down 7.6% YoY to 4,72. In August, the number of dwellings financed by first home buyers (FHB) increased 4.2% MoM and were also 25.6% higher than in August 216, the fourth consecutive month of year-on-year increases. The average FHB loan size fell 1.2% MoM and 4.9% YoY to $35,5. The number of dwellings financed by non-fhb increased 11.7% over August to 4,483, 12.7% lower than last year. The average non-fhb loan size remained stable, falling.7% MoM and rising.3% on last year to sit at $331,8. WA investment housing dwelling finance increased 13.3% over August to $773.8 million, 5.8% higher than at the same time in the previous year. This made up 6.1% of the national total for August ($13.14 billion). Owner Occupier Loan Commitments (monthly) Average Home Loan Amount ($thousands) Owner Occupier Housing Finance, WA (ABS) 12 Construction of dwellings (WA) Purchase of new dwellings (WA) 1 Refinancing of established dwellings (WA) Purchase of established dwellings (WA) Total housing finance commitments (WA) Aug-7 Aug-8 Aug-9 Aug-1 Aug-11 Aug-12 Aug-13 Aug-14 Aug-15 Aug-16 Aug Dwelling Finance, WA (ABS) Source: ABS 569., T1a (Original Data) Aug-7 Aug-8 Aug-9 Aug-1 Aug-11 Aug-12 Aug-13 Aug-14 Aug-15 Aug-16 Aug-17 FHB: Average Loan Size Non-FHB: Average Loan Size FHB: Dwellings Financed Non-FHB: Dwellings Financed Home Loan Commitments Source: ABS 569.,T9b (Original Data) WA Dwelling Finance ($m/month) Dwelling Finance for Investment Housing (ABS) WA Dwelling Finance for Investment Housing WA Rolling 3 month average AU Dwelling Finance for Investment Housing AU Rolling 3 month average AU Dwelling Finance ($m/month) Median Price (quarterly) Perth Metropolitan Quarterly Update Dwelling/Land Sales (Quarterly) Aug-7 Aug-8 Aug-9 Aug-1 Aug-11 Aug-12 Aug-13 Aug-14 Aug-15 Aug-16 Aug-17 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Houses sold Units Sold Land Sold Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Source: ABS 5671., T15 & 23 (Original Data) Median House Price Median Unit Price Median Land Price Source: REIWA 6 Perth Metropolitan Rent (REIWA) 1% 2 Residential Property Listings, Perth Metro (REIWA) 5 18 Median House Rent (Quarterly) % % Quarterly Variance & Vacancy Rate (%) House and Unit Listings (Quarterly) Quarterly variance - Median House Rent Vacancy rate Median House Rent -5% Sep-7 Sep-8 Sep-9 Sep-1 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep-17 Source: REIWA 2 Source: REIWA 8

9 RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION SECTOR Key Points of Interest In September, First Home Owner Grant (FHOG) applications for new dwellings fell 19.1% monthly and 6.% from the same time last year. This is the second month in decline following three months of increasing figures from the impact of the end of the $5, FHOG boost. Grants paid out in September for new dwellings also fell 9.1% month-onmonth (MoM) and 7.5% year-on-year (YoY). Building approvals for houses in WA increased 7.7% over the September quarter to 3,836, following a 2.2% quarterly increase in the June quarter. Approvals for houses in Greater Perth (3,11) rose 11.7% in the September quarter, following three quarters of declining figures. Numbers for WA and Greater Perth fell 7.4% and 11.8% respectively YoY. In the September quarter, building approvals for dwellings (excluding houses) increased for the second quarter in a row for both WA (1,359) and Greater Perth (1,314), albeit at a slower pace, rising 3.3% and 1.9% respectively. Both regions also experienced a slowing annual rate of decline in figures, with WA falling 5.4% and Greater Perth down 5.5% from the same quarter in the previous year. The total value of WA building jobs for the September quarter rose 1.4% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) to $1.51 billion, 12.4% lower than in September 216 and.1% above the 12-month average. Included within the total value of WA residential building jobs for the September quarter: the value of building jobs for new construction rose 1.7% QoQ to $1.37 billion, 13.9% lower YoY and.2% below the 12-month average; and the value of building jobs for alterations and additions (including conversions) fell 2.% from the previous quarter to $139.4 million and was.9% below the 12-month average, but increased 5.6% from the previous year. 1,5 1, Building Approvals (dwellings/month) Residential Construction (dwellings per quarter) FHOG Applications & Payments for New Dwellings Sep-27 Sep-29 Sep-211 Sep-213 Sep-215 Residential Construction, WA (ABS) Houses Commenced Houses Completed Dwellings Commenced Dwellings Completed FHOG Paid for New Dwellings Building Approvals, WA & Greater Perth (ABS) FHOG Paid 3 Month Rolling Average FHOG Applications for New Dwellings FHOG Applications 3 Month Rolling Average Sep-7 Sep-8 Sep-9 Sep-1 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep-17 Source: Treasury WA Houses WA Other Dwellings Perth Houses Perth Other Dwellings Source: ABS 8731., T5 & 1 3 Jun-27 Jun-29 Jun-211 Jun-213 Jun-215 Jun-217 Source: ABS 8752., T34 & T38 (Original Data) Alterations & Additions ($m/month) Value of Building Jobs, WA (ABS) 1 $14 $12 8 $1 6 $8 $6 4 $4 2 $2 $ Sep-27 Sep-29 Sep-211 Sep-213 Sep-215 Sep-217 New Building Jobs ($m/month) Value of Building Jobs ($m/month) $7, $6, $5, $4, $3, $2, $1, Value of House/Other WA Residential Building Jobs (ABS) Houses Other Residential Alterations & Additions, Including Conversions Alterations & Additions, Including Conversions (Trend) $ New Construction New Construction (Trend) Source: ABS 8731., T34 Source:ABS 8731., Table 47 9

10 Urban Development Institute of Australia (UDIA) WA P: (8) E: Disclaimer While the data has been collected with due care for the purpose of reporting property market and general economic trends, no responsibility can be taken regarding its accuracy and individuals should conduct their own specific research before making any decisions. Information provided in this publication should not be taken as a guarantee of specific future movements in the market, but rather as an indication of historical market trends. All or part of this document may not be reproduced, published or included in any report without the approval of the UDIA (WA Division) as to the form and context in which it will appear. 1