California Housing Market Update. Monthly Sales and Price Statistics October 2018

Transcription

1 California Housing Market Update Monthly Sales and Price Statistics October 2018

2 Sales Had the 2 nd Largest Drop in the Last 6 Months California, October 2018 Sales: 397,060 Units, -3.7% YTD, -7.9% YTY 700, , , , , , ,000 - Oct-17: 431,070 Oct-18: 397,060 SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes *Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized

3 California Home Sales Continued on a Declining Trend 25% 2 15% 5% -5% - -15% -2 Year-over-Year % Chg 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Year-over-Year % Chg) -25% Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes *Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized

4 Bay Area Sales Bounced Back but Still Down from Last Year 3 Bay Area 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Bay Area) 2 YoY % chg SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes *Sales are not seasonally adjusted and annualized

5 Southern California Home Sales Continued to Have the Biggest Fall among All Regions YoY % chg. 4 So CA 6 per. Mov. Avg. (So CA) % SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes *Sales are not seasonally adjusted and annualized

6 Central Valley Sales Remained on a Declining Trend in October YoY % chg. 3 Central Valley 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Central Valley) 2-2.6% SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes *Sales are not seasonally adjusted and annualized

7 Sales Declined in Sub-Million Dollar Markets October 2018 (Year-to-Year) 25% % 15% 5% 1.6% -5% - -15% -11.1% -6.6% -8.5% -2.1% -2.2% -2-25% -20.6% SERIES: Sales of Existing Detached Homes

8 Home Prices Continued to Grow but at a More Moderate Pace California, October 2018: $572,000, -1.2% MTM, +4.7% YTY $700,000 $600,000 P:May-07 $594,530 Oct-17: $546,430 Oct-18: $572,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 T: Feb-09 $245,230-59% from peak $200,000 $100,000 $- SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes

9 Prices Growing at Mid Single-Digit Rate Condo Single-Family Homes YTY% Chg. in Price SERIES: Median Price of Existing Condo/Townhomes

10 $600,000 Condo/Townhome Median Price Leveling off as Markets Move into Off Season Condo $500,000 Median Price $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 Oct-17: $450,880 Oct-18: $476,440 $100,000 $0 Jan-05 Jun-05 Nov-05 Apr-06 Sep-06 Feb-07 Jul-07 Dec-07 May-08 Oct-08 Mar-09 Aug-09 Jan-10 Jun-10 Nov-10 Apr-11 Sep-11 Feb-12 Jul-12 Dec-12 May-13 Oct-13 Mar-14 Aug-14 Jan-15 Jun-15 Nov-15 Apr-16 Sep-16 Feb-17 Jul-17 Dec-17 May-18 Oct-18 SERIES: Median Price of Existing Condos/Townhomes

11 CA Median Price (Existing SFH) 15% Month-to-Month % Chg 5% -5% - -15% SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes

12 Year-over-Year Price Growth by Percentile Year-over-Year Price Growth 14% 12% 11.3% 11.8% 8.6% 8% 6.5% 6.4% 6% 4% 4.4% 3.7% 5.2% 4.9% 2% Percentile SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes

13 Slow Growth in List Price Suggests Sales Price Tapering Off in the Near Term 6 California Median Sales vs. List Price Growth /1/2009 4/1/2009 7/1/ /1/2009 1/1/2010 4/1/2010 7/1/ /1/2010 1/1/2011 4/1/2011 7/1/ /1/2011 1/1/2012 4/1/2012 7/1/ /1/2012 1/1/2013 4/1/2013 7/1/ /1/2013 1/1/2014 4/1/2014 7/1/ /1/2014 1/1/2015 4/1/2015 7/1/ /1/2015 1/1/2016 4/1/2016 7/1/ /1/2016 1/1/2017 4/1/2017 7/1/ /1/2017 1/1/2018 4/1/2018 7/1/ /1/2018 Listing Price Sales Price SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes

14 Reduced-Price Listings Share of Listings with a Reduced Price: 43.6%; Median Reduction Amount: -4.4% 5 45% 4 35% 3 25% 2 15% 5% 1/1/2010 4/1/2010 7/1/ /1/2010 1/1/2011 4/1/2011 7/1/ /1/2011 1/1/2012 4/1/2012 7/1/ /1/2012 1/1/2013 4/1/2013 Reduced-Price Listings 7/1/ /1/2013 1/1/2014 4/1/2014 7/1/ /1/2014 1/1/2015 4/1/2015 7/1/2015 Median Reduction 10/1/2015 1/1/2016 4/1/2016 7/1/ /1/2016 1/1/2017 4/1/2017 7/1/ /1/2017 1/1/ % 9% 8% 7% 6% 4.4% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 4/1/2018 7/1/ /1/2018 SERIES: Listing Price of Existing Single Family Homes

15 Price Per Square Increased from Last Year, but Virtually Unchanged from September October 2018: $282, Down 0. MTM, Up 4.4% YTY PRICE PER SQ. FT. $400 $350 $300 $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 $0 Oct-17: $270 Oct-18: $282 SERIES: Median Price Per Square Feet of Existing Single Family Homes

16 Sales Price -to-list Price Hit the Lowest Level in 21 Months October 2018: 98.1%, -0.4% MTM, -0.8% YTY 10 Oct-17: 98.9% Oct-18: 98.1% Sales-to-List Price Ratio 98% 96% 94% 92% 9 SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes

17 Sales-to-List Price Ratio by Percentile Sales-to-List Price Ratio 100.5% % % 99.5% 99.6% 99.7% % 98.3% % Percentile Oct-17 Oct-18 SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes

18 Time on Market Rises as the Market Slows California, October 2018: 26.0 Days DAYS ON MARKET SERIES: Median Time of Market of Existing Single Family Homes

19 Median Time on Market by Percentile Median Time on Market Total Percentile Oct-17 Oct-18 SERIES: Median Time on Market of Existing Single Family Homes

20 Inventory Index Dipped from September as Sales Climbed from Prior Month October 2017: 3.0 Months; October 2018: 3.6 Months Note: Unsold Inventory Index represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were Active, Pending, and Contingent (when available) and divide the sum by the number of Sold properties for the month in question. SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes

21 Active Listings Continued to Increase for the 7 th Consecutive Month Year-over-Year % Chg 35% 3 25% 2 15% 5% -5% - -15% SERIES: Active Listing of Existing Single Family Homes

22 Housing Supply Improved across the Board, Except for the Sub-$200k Price Segment Oct 2018 Active Listing % 43.9% 40.1% 30.7% % 9.1% % SERIES: Active Listings of Existing Single Family Homes

23 Inventory Improved as Sales Continued to Fall 9.0 Bay Area So CA Central Valley Note: Unsold Inventory Index represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were Active, Pending, and Contingent (when available) and divide the sum by the number of Sold properties for the month in question. SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes

24 Active Listings Increased in All Regions 35,000 30,000 Oct-17 32,269 Oct-18 25,000 24,539 Active Listings 20,000 15,000 10,000 7,830 10,326 12,218 5,000 4,789 2,497 2,737 0 San Francisco Bay Area Southern California Central Valley Central Coast SERIES: Active Listings of Existing Single Family Homes

25 Active Listings Increased in All Regions Oct % Sales Active Listings Year-to-Year % Chg % San Francisco Bay Area 32% 18% -3% -3% -8% Southern California Central Valley Central Coast SERIES: Sales and Listings of Existing Single Family Homes

26 Inventory Index Highest in Millions Unsold Inventory Index Oct-17 Oct-18 SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes

27 Active Listings by Month 70,000 Active Listings by Month 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,