Analyst s Handbook: Real Estate

Transcription

1 Analyst s Handbook: Real Estate December 22, 217 Dr. Edward Yardeni eyardeni@ Mali Quintana aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box

2 Table Of Contents Table Of Contents Housing Starts 1 Building Permits 2 Housing Market Index 3-4 New Home Sales Existing Home Sales 6 Pending Home Sales 7 New Home Prices 8 Existing Home Prices 9-12 FHFA Home Price Indexes 13 Mortgage Rates 14 Mortgage Applications 1 Delinquencies 16 Real Estate Value of Home Sales 19 Mortgages 2 Housing Affordability Index 21 Real Estate P/Es 22 Home Equity Loans 23 December 22, 217 / Analyst s Handbook: Real Estate www.

3 Figure 1. HOUSING STARTS (million units, saar) Housing Starts Total (1.3) Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 2. Figure 2. HOUSING STARTS (million units, saar) Single-Family (.93) Multi-Family (.37) Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. Page 1 / December 22, 217 / Analyst s Handbook: Real Estate www.

4 Figure 3. BUILDING PERMITS (million units, saar) Building Permits Total Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census Figure 4. BUILDING PERMITS (million units, saar) Single-Family Multi-Family Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census Page 2 / December 22, 217 / Analyst s Handbook: Real Estate www.

5 Housing Market Index 9 7 Figure. NAHB HOUSING MARKET INDEX & SINGLE-FAMILY HOUSING STARTS Dec Housing Market Index Single-Family Housing Starts (thousand units, saar) NAHB HOUSING MARKET INDEX COMPONENTS Current Single-Family Sales Index Future Single-Family Sales Index NAHB HOUSING MARKET INDEX COMPONENTS Dec Dec Traffic of Prospective Home Buyers Source: National Association of Home Builders and Commerce Department. 1 Page 3 / December 22, 217 / Analyst s Handbook: Real Estate www.

6 Housing Market Index Figure 6. NAHB HOUSING MARKET INDEX Dec Northeast Dec South Dec Midwest Dec 4 West Source: National Association of Home Builders and Commerce Department. 2 Page 4 / December 22, 217 / Analyst s Handbook: Real Estate www.

7 Figure 7. NEW HOME SALES (thousand units, saar) NEW HOMES FOR SALE (thousand units, sa) New Home Sales RATIO OF NEW HOMES FOR SALE TO NEW HOMES SOLD (months supply) Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census Page / December 22, 217 / Analyst s Handbook: Real Estate www.

8 Figure 8. EXISTING HOME SALES (million units, saar) Existing Home Sales Total Single-Family EXISTING SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES AVAILABLE FOR SALE (million units) EXISTING SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES: MONTHS SUPPLY ON THE MARKET* * Ratio of existing single-family homes for sale to existing single-family homes sold. Source: National Association of Realtors Page 6 / December 22, 217 / Analyst s Handbook: Real Estate www.

9 13 12 Figure 9. Pending Home Sales EXISTING HOME SALES & PENDING HOME SALES INDEX Pending Home Sales Index (1 = ) Existing Home Sales (thousands, saar) Source: National Association of Realtors Figure 1. PENDING HOME SALES INDEX (saar) Total Northeast MidWest South West Source: National Association of Realtors. 9 7 Page 7 / December 22, 217 / Analyst s Handbook: Real Estate www.

10 Figure 11. NEW HOME PRICES: SINGLE-FAMILY (thousand dollars, 12-month moving average) Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. New Home Prices Average Price (37.1) Median Price (318.) Figure 12. NEW HOME SINGLE-FAMILY PRICES (yearly percent change in 12-month moving average) Median Price (4.6) Average Price (.1) Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. -1 Page 8 / December 22, 217 / Analyst s Handbook: Real Estate www.

11 Existing Home Prices 3 2 Figure 13. EXISTING SINGLE-FAMILY HOME PRICES (thousand dollars, 12-month moving average) Average Price (287.4) 22 Median Price (246.) Source: National Association of Realtors Figure 14. EXISTING SINGLE-FAMILY HOME PRICES (yearly percent change in 12-month moving average) Median Price (.8) Average Price (4.7) Source: National Association of Realtors Page 9 / December 22, 217 / Analyst s Handbook: Real Estate www.

12 Existing Home Prices Figure 1. HOME PRICES (ratio scale) Existing Single-Family Median Home Price (thousand dollars, 12-ma, ratio scale) FHFA House Price Index: Purchase Only (Q1-1991=, sa) HOME PRICE (ratio scale, nsa) S&P/Case-Shiller 2 Metros Home Price Index (Jan =) EXISTING SINGLE-FAMILY HOME PRICE (thousand dollars, ratio scale, nsa) Single-Family Existing 22 Median 17 Mean Source: National Association of Realtors, Macro Markets, and Haver Analytics. 7 Page 1 / December 22, 217 / Analyst s Handbook: Real Estate www.

13 Existing Home Prices Figure 16. S&P/CASE-SHILLER HOME PRICE INDEX (Jan =, nsa) Atlanta Dallas Boston Denver Charlotte Detroit Chicago Las Vegas Cleveland Los Angeles Source: Macro Markets. Page 11 / December 22, 217 / Analyst s Handbook: Real Estate www.

14 3 3 2 Figure 17. S&P/CASE-SHILLER HOME PRICE INDEX (Jan =, nsa) Miami Existing Home Prices San Diego Minneapolis San Francisco New York Seattle Phoenix Tampa Portland Washington DC Source: Macro Markets. Page 12 / December 22, 217 / Analyst s Handbook: Real Estate www.

15 Figure 18. FHFA HOUSE PRICE INDEX: PURCHASE ONLY (Q1 1991=, sa) United States FHFA Home Price Indexes South Atlantic New England East South Central Middle Atlantic West South Central East North Central Mountain West North Central Pacific Source: Federal Housing Finance Administration. Page 13 / December 22, 217 / Analyst s Handbook: Real Estate www.

16 17 Figure 19. INTEREST RATE ON FIXED-RATE MORTGAGE Mortgage Rates Year Mortgage* (3.97) / * Average conventional 3-year commitment rate. Weekly data thru December 3, daily thereafter. Source: FHLMC Primary Mortgage Market Survey Figure 2. INTEREST RATE ON ADJUSTABLE RATE MORTGAGES (percent) 1-Year Mortgage Source: Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation. 12/ Page 14 / December 22, 217 / Analyst s Handbook: Real Estate www.

17 Figure 21. MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS: NEW PURCHASE INDEX & SINGLE-FAMILY HOME SALES Source: Mortgage Bankers of America. Mortgage Applications Mortgage Applications: New Purchase Index (4-week average, sa) New Plus Existing Single-Family Home Sales (million units, saar) 12/ Figure 22. MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS: REFINANCING INDEX (4-week average, sa) / Source: Mortgage Bankers Association. Page 1 / December 22, 217 / Analyst s Handbook: Real Estate www.

18 11 1 Figure 23. Delinquencies LOAN DELINQUENCY RATE: ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS (percent, sa) Real Estate Loans Source: Board of Govenors of the Federal Reserve System Figure 24. LOAN DELINQUENCY RATE: ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS (percent, sa) Residential Loans* Commercial Loans** * Residential real estate loans include loans secured by one- to four-family properties, including home equity lines of credit. ** Commercial real estate loans include construction and land development loans, loans secured by multifamily residences, and loans secured by nonfarm, nonresidential real estate. Source: Board of Govenors of the Federal Reserve System. Page 16 / December 22, 217 / Analyst s Handbook: Real Estate www.

19 2 23 Figure 2. Real Estate VALUE OF OWNER-OCCUPIED HOUSEHOLD REAL ESTATE (trillion dollars, sa) Source: Flow of Funds Figure 26. VALUE OF EXISTING HOME SALES* (as a percent of Total Owner-Occupied Real Estate) * Value of existing home sales (saar)=quarterly average of the following: existing home sales (saar) multiplied by the average existing home price. Source: National Association of Realtors, US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census and Flow of Funds. Page 17 / December 22, 217 / Analyst s Handbook: Real Estate www.

20 Figure 27. REAL ESTATE (trillion dollars, nsa) Owners Equity in Household Real Estate (14.1) Home Mortgages* (1.) Real Estate 8 OWNERS EQUITY (as a percent of household real estate) Q Q * Includes home equity loans and second mortgages. Source: Federal Reserve Board Flow of Funds Accounts. 2 2 Figure 28. HOME VALUES (yearly percent change in 12-month average) Median Existing Home Price Total Value of Household Real Estate Holdings Source: Federal Reserve Board Flow of Funds Accounts and National Association of Realtors Page 18 / December 22, 217 / Analyst s Handbook: Real Estate www.

21 1 1 Figure 29. VALUE OF EXISTING HOME SALES* (billion dollars, saar) Value of Home Sales * Value of existing home sales (saar)=quarterly average of the following: existing home sales (saar) multiplied by the average existing home price. Source: National Association of Realtors, US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 4 4 Figure 3. VALUE OF NEW HOME SALES* (billion dollars, saar) * Value of new home sales (saar)=quarterly average of the following: new home sales (saar) multiplied by the average new home price. Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. Page 19 / December 22, 217 / Analyst s Handbook: Real Estate www.

22 1 13 Figure 31. HOME MORTGAGE BORROWING (billion dollars, saar) Mortgages Source: Federal Reserve Board, Flow of Funds Accounts Figure 32. HOME MORTGAGE BORROWING (as a ratio of the value of existing* and new home sales**) * Value of existing home sales (saar)=quarterly average of the following: existing home sales (saar) multiplied by the average existing home price. ** Value of new home sales (saar)=quarterly average of the following: new home sales (saar) mulitplied by the average new home price. Source: National Association of Realtors, US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. Page 2 / December 22, 217 / Analyst s Handbook: Real Estate www.

23 22 Figure 33. HOUSING AFFORDABILITY INDEX* Housing Affordability Index 22 Mar * Index= when median family income qualifies for an % mortgage on a median priced existing single-family home. Rising index indicates more buyers can afford to enter market. Source: National Association of Realtors. 22 Figure 34. HOUSING AFFORDABILITY INDEX* Northeast Midwest South West Source: National Association of Realtors. Page 21 / December 22, 217 / Analyst s Handbook: Real Estate www.

24 3.2 Figure 3. Real Estate P/Es MARKET VALUE OWNER-OCCUPIED HOUSEHOLD REAL ESTATE As a ratio of disposable personal income excluding personal current transfer payments and other labor income Q Q As a ratio of disposable personal income Source: Federal Reserve Board Flow of Funds Accounts and US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis Figure 36. HOME MORTGAGES OUTSTANDING* As a ratio of disposable personal income excluding personal current transfer payments and other labor income Q Q As a ratio of disposable personal income * Includes home equity loans and second mortgages. Source: Federal Reserve Board Flow of Funds Accounts and US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Page 22 / December 22, 217 / Analyst s Handbook: Real Estate www.

25 Figure 37. HOME EQUITY LOANS (billion dollars, sa) Total Home Equity Loans* (79.) US Chartered Depository Institutions (quarterly) (467.8) At Commercial Banks (weekly) (378.8) Home Equity Loans Q3 12/ * Loans made under home equity lines of credit and home equity loans secured by junior liens. Excludes home equity loans held by mortgage companies and individuals. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Figure 38. HOME EQUITY LOANS (yearly change, billion dollars) Home Equity Loans Total* At Weekly Reporting Commercial Banks /6 Q * Loans made under home equity lines of credit and home equity loans secured by junior liens. Excludes home equity loans held by mortgage companies and individuals. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Page 23 / December 22, 217 / Analyst s Handbook: Real Estate www.

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