April 4, p.m. Eastern

Transcription

1 April 4, p.m. Eastern Worldwide ERC would like to thank today s sponsor: 2017 Worldwide ERC

2 Tips and Tools for Understanding the U.S. Real Estate Market, and Its Impact on Your Relocation Program Presented by Tom Lacey; Director, Real Estate Services, Cartus Anthony Cristaudo; Director, Business Development, Cartus Home Loans 2017 Worldwide ERC

3 WORLDWIDE ERC WEBINAR DISCLAIMER The views, opinions, and information expressed during this webinar are those of the presenter and are not the views or opinions of Worldwide ERC. Worldwide ERC makes no representation or warranty with respect to the webinar or any information or materials presented therein. Users of webinar materials should not rely upon or construe the information or resource materials contained in this webinar as legal or other professional advice and should not act or fail to act based on the information in these materials without seeking the services of a competent legal or other professional.

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5 Q&A Instructions Submit questions through Q&A dialogue box Box is located in lower right corner of screen Do not use the Chat Box Be specific You may submit your question at any time Q&A Dialogue Box:

6 CRP Certification If you are a CRP seeking CE credit for this webinar, you must utilize the CRP Recertification Credit Form, available online at: (please note that all (S)CRPs must use this form and pay the $8 admin fee to receive CE credit)

7 Today s Presenters Tom Lacey Director, Real Estate Services Cartus Anthony Cristaudo Director, Business Development Cartus Home Loans

8 Real Estate Market Snapshot Median Home Price Unemployment Underwater First-time Buyers Listing Inventory Total Sales Median Home Price: $234,900 Up 5.1% YOY Unemployment: 4.8% October 2009: 10% at peak Percentage of underwater homes: 10% 2010: 27.3% at peak Percentage of firsttime buyers: 33% Typically represents 40% Months of listing inventory: 4.9 months 6 month s supply equals a balanced market Total home sales: 5.61 million seasonally adjusted Up 1.9% YOY Source: RealtyTrac; Zillow; NAR; Bureau of Labor

9 United States Job Growth Million Jobs Lost Payroll changes 000 s Million Jobs Recovered Source: US Census Bureau

10 Overall Market Indicators are all positive Job growth is strong Home sale programs affected by value increases/lower inventory Growth vs. income

11 National Rental Rates TOP10 1 BEDROOM MEDIAN RENT PRICES West Coast 1. San Francisco, CA 4. San Jose, CA 5. Oakland, CA 7. Los Angeles, CA 10. Seattle, WA North East 2. New York, NY 3. Boston, MA 6. Washington, DC January 2017 Midwest 8. Chicago, IL South 9. Miami, FL Source: Zumper

12 Rental Rates & Vacancies Surplus/Shortage of Vacant Homes Numbers in Millions Source: Freddie Mac

13 Rental Rates & Vacancies Transferee Challenges Extremely low inventory levels Cost benefits of owning vs. renting Low supply will drive increased rents Assistance may be needed

14 Student Loan Debt

15 Student Debt & The Market 70% more students are getting loans Tripled in size in the last decade to $1.3 trillion Typical student taking on twice as much debt First time homebuyers historically average 40% of the market Source: CFPB

16 Student Debt & The Market Age 60 and older with Student Debt 3.5 Number of Borrowers (in Millions) Source: CFPB

17 First-Time Homebuyers What does this mean for your transferees? Most states are below the 40% first time homebuyers Student debt

18 Mortgage Delinquency Rate Historical Average below 2% Great Recession Percent # of Loans Mortgage Delinquency rate Source: Corelogic

19 Home Price Performance by State Q Q United States 7% Source: Freddie Mac

20 Top 10 Hottest Suburbs Source: NAR 20

21 Housing Supply & Demand Levels have shifted Sellers market (six months or less) Limited supply will affect values Corporate inventory

22 Forecasted Home Price by State 2017 Projections Source: Corelogic

23 Portland- Vancouver Price: 6.6% Sales Growth: 5.0% 2017 Projected Top 10 Metros 3 Boston- Cambridge Price: 6.1% Sales Growth: 6.3% Sacramento- Roseville Price: 7.2% Sales Growth: 4.9% 1 4 Raleigh Los Angeles- Anaheim Price: 4.2% Sales Growth: 7.6% Price: 6.9% Sales Growth: 6.0% 6 5 Jacksonville Riverside- San Bernardino 7 9 Price: 5.7% Sales Growth: 6.1% Price: 5.7% Sales Growth: 6.9% Phoenix-Mesa- Scottsdale Price: 5.9% Sales Growth: 7.2% Tucson Price: 6.1% Sales Growth: 5.5% Orlando- Kissimmee Price: 5.6% Sales Growth: 6.1%

24 Forecasted Appreciation CUMULATIVE APPRECIATION BY Bulls All Projections Bears Source: Home Price Expectation Survey

25 Interest Rates & Fed Funds Rate Recession Year Recession Years Mortgage Rate Fed Funds Rate Source: NAR

26 Interest Rates Forecast Affordability Incentives

27 2017 Housing Market Temperatures Existing Home Sales to 5.46M 1.9% Overall Price Appreciation 3.9% Home Ownership Rate from 62.9 to 63.5% 0.6% Markets to see 1% or more Appreciation 1.0% New Home Sales 10% Mkts Listing Inventory as dropped 11% New Home Sales 11% New Home Starts 3.0% Mortgage Rates to jump from 3.5% to 4.5% 4.5% Source: NAR 2

28 2017 Trends That Could Reshape Housing 33% Millennials. 30% Baby Boomers Expected to fuel demand for at least the next decade in the housing market. o Millennials expected to make up 33 percent of buyers. o Baby boomers expected to make up 30 percent of buyers. Midwest 15 / 19 Strong Affordability Midwestern cities will get more attention from millennials GO WEST! Western markets continue to dominate top housing markets list The following metros have an average millennial market share of 42 percent or higher: Madison, Wis.; Columbus, Ohio; Omaha, Neb.; Des Moines, Iowa; and Minneapolis, Minn. Source: FHFA, NAR

29 2017 Trends That Could Reshape Housing Better Affordability Rental affordability will Smaller House Cities will focus on denser Public Transportation A new focus on housing Driving To Work The % of people who drive to improve as incomes rise and growth in rents slows development of smaller homes close to public transit and urban centers work will rise for the first time in a decade Source: Zillow

30 2017 Policy Discussion Needs vs. cost Culture changes Multiple policy types

31 Questions & Answers

32 Thank you for attending! Visit the Worldwide ERC web site at or contact Worldwide ERC for more information on these topics