California Housing Market Update. Monthly Sales and Price Statistics August 2018

Transcription

1 California Housing Market Update Monthly Sales and Price Statistics August 2018

2 Sales Declined for the 4 th Consecutive Month California, August 2018 Sales: 399,600 Units, -2.1% YTD, -6.6% YTY 700, , , , , , ,000 - Aug-17: 427,630 Aug-18: 399,600 SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes *Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized

3 California Home Sales Continued to Decline for the 4 th Month 25% 2 15% 1 5% -5% -1-15% -2 Year-over-Year % Chg 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Year-over-Year % Chg) -25% Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes *Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized

4 Bay Area Sales Down Two of the Last Three Months 3 Bay Area 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Bay Area) 2 YoY % chg SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes *Sales are not seasonally adjusted and annualized

5 Southern California Home Sales Dipped Again after Slight Increase in July YoY % chg. 4 So CA 6 per. Mov. Avg. (So CA) SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes *Sales are not seasonally adjusted and annualized

6 Central Valley Sales Retreated after Bounce Back YoY % chg. 3 Central Valley 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Central Valley) SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes *Sales are not seasonally adjusted and annualized

7 Sales Declined in Every Segment under $750k August 2018 (Year-to-Year) 15% 1 9.7% 5% % -5% -1-15% -3.7% -10.1% % -25% % SERIES: Sales of Existing Detached Homes

8 CA Median Price Bounced Back But Appreciation Slowing Down California, August 2018: $596,410, +0.8% MTM, +5.5% YTY $700,000 $600,000 P:May-07 $594,530 Aug-17: $565,320 Aug-18: $596,410 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 T: Feb-09 $245,230-59% from peak $200,000 $100,000 $- SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes

9 Year-over-Year Price Growth by Percentile Year-over-Year Price Growth 9% 8% 7.4% 8.1% 7.5% 7% 6.8% 6% 5% 5.7% 4.3% 5.1% 5.9% 5.5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Percentile SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes

10 5 4 Price Growth Moderated for both Homes and Condos Condo Single-Family Homes 3 YTY% Chg. in Price SERIES: Median Price of Existing Condo/Townhomes

11 $600,000 Condo/Townhome Median Price Dipped After Peaking in July Condo $500,000 Median Price $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 Aug-17: $446,850 Aug-18: $474,570 $100,000 $0 Jan-05 Jun-05 Nov-05 Apr-06 Sep-06 Feb-07 Jul-07 Dec-07 May-08 Oct-08 Mar-09 Aug-09 Jan-10 Jun-10 Nov-10 Apr-11 Sep-11 Feb-12 Jul-12 Dec-12 May-13 Oct-13 Mar-14 Aug-14 Jan-15 Jun-15 Nov-15 Apr-16 Sep-16 Feb-17 Jul-17 Dec-17 May-18 SERIES: Median Price of Existing Condos/Townhomes

12 CA Median Price (Existing SFH) Month-to-Month % Chg 15% 1 5% -5% -1-15% SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes

13 Price Per Square Foot Remained Near Record High August 2018: $283, Down 2.1% MTM, Up 5.6% YTY $400 $350 PRICE PER SQ. FT. $300 $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 $0 SERIES: Median Price Per Square Feet of Existing Single Family Homes Aug-17: $268 Aug-18: $283

14 Sales Price -to-list Price Had Back-toBack Declines August 2018: 99., -0.6% MTM, -0.5% YTY Sales-to-List Price Ratio 10 98% 96% 94% 92% 9 SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes Aug-17: 99.5% Aug-18: 99.

15 Slow Growth in List Price Suggests Sales Price Tapering Off in the Near Term California Median Sales vs. List Price Growth Listing Price SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes Sales Price 5/1/2018 1/1/2018 9/1/2017 5/1/2017 1/1/2017 9/1/2016 5/1/2016 1/1/2016 9/1/2015 5/1/2015 1/1/2015 9/1/2014 5/1/2014 1/1/2014 9/1/2013 5/1/2013 1/1/2013 9/1/2012 5/1/2012 1/1/2012 9/1/2011 5/1/2011 1/1/2011 9/1/2010 5/1/2010 1/1/2010 9/1/2009 5/1/2009 1/1/

16 Sales-to-List Price Ratio by Percentile Sales-to-List Price Ratio 100.5% % % Percentile Aug-17 SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes Aug Total

17 Time on Market Near Record-Low Level California, Aug 2018: 18.0 Days 80 DAYS ON MARKET SERIES: Median Time of Market of Existing Single Family Homes

18 Median Time on Market by Percentile Median Time on Market Percentile Aug-17 SERIES: Median Time on Market of Existing Single Family Homes Aug Total

19 Reduced-Price Listings Share of Listings with a Reduced Price: 38.9%; Median Reduction Amount: -4.3% Reduced-Price Listings % 9% 4 8% 35% 7% 3 6% 25% 5% 2 4% 15% 3% 1 2% 5% 1% 1/1/2010 1/1/2011 1/1/2012 1/1/2013 1/1/2014 Share Reduced SERIES: Listing Price of Existing Single Family Homes 1/1/2015 1/1/2016 Median Reduction 1/1/2017 1/1/2018

20 Inventory Index Up from 2017 but Remained Tight Aug 2017: 2.9 Months; Aug 2018: 3.3 Months Note: Unsold Inventory Index represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were Active, Pending, and Contingent (when available) and divide the sum by the number of Sold properties for the month in question. SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes

21 Active Listings Continued to Increase for the 5th Consecutive Month Year-over-Year % Chg 2 15% 1 5% -5% -1-15% -2 SERIES: Active Listing of Existing Single Family Homes 17.2%

22 Inventory Index Highest in Millions Unsold Inventory Index Aug-17 SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes Aug

23 Housing Supply Improved across the Board, Except for the Sub-$200k Price Segment Aug 2018 Active Listing 27.8% % 2 7.7% % SERIES: Active Listings of Existing Single Family Homes 21.4% 19.8% 17.2% 4.5%

24 Inventory Improved as Sales Continued to Soften 9.0 Bay Area So CA Central Valley Note: Unsold Inventory Index represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were Active, Pending, and Contingent (when available) and divide the sum by the number of Sold properties for the month in question. SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes

25 Active Listings by Month Active Listings by Month 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,

26 Active Listings Surged in All Regions Aug 2018 Sales Active Listings 4 34% Year-to-Year % Chg % 1 6% 2% -1-7% San Francisco Bay Area SERIES: Sales and Listings of Existing Single Family Homes -8% Southern California -6% Central Valley Central Coast