California Housing Market Update. Monthly Sales and Price Statistics December 2018

Transcription

1 California Housing Market Update Monthly Sales and Price Statistics December 2018

2 Sales Reached the Lowest Level since Jan 2015 California, December 2018 Sales: 372,260 Units, -5.2% YTD, -11.6% YTY 700, , , , , , ,000 - Dec-17: 420,960 Dec-18: 372,260 SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes *Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized

3 California Home Sales Continued on a Declining Trend 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% Year-over-Year % Chg 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Year-over-Year % Chg) -25% Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-1 SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes *Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized

4 YoY % chg. Bay Area Sales Had the Largest YOY Decline since Oct % Bay Area 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Bay Area) 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -17.5% -30% SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes *Sales are not seasonally adjusted and annualized

5 Southern California Home Sales Continued to Dip by Double-Digit YoY % chg. So CA 6 per. Mov. Avg. (So CA) 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -17.3% -30% SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes *Sales are not seasonally adjusted and annualized

6 Central Valley Sales Dropped the Most in Nearly Five Years YoY % chg. 30% Central Valley 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Central Valley) 20% 10% 0% -2.7% -10% -20% -30% SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes *Sales are not seasonally adjusted and annualized

7 Sales Declined in All Price Segments December 2018 (YTY% Chg.) 0% -5% -10% $0 - $199k $200 - $299k Share by Price Segment 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 5.9% 15.6% -15% -20% -11.7% -17.8% -15.6% -15.3% -15.6% -16.7% -18.2% $300 - $399k $400 - $499k $500 - $749k 14.1% 16.3% 23.8% -25% $750 - $999k 10.2% -30% -28.1% $1,000 - $1,999k 11.0% $2,000k+ 3.2% SERIES: Sales of Existing Detached Homes

8 Home Prices Continued to Grow but at a Very Modest Pace California, December 2018: $557,600, +0.5% MTM, +1.5% YTY $700,000 $600,000 P:May-07 $594,530 Dec-17: $549,550 Dec-18: $557,600 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 T: Feb-09 $245,230-59% from peak $200,000 $100,000 $- SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes

9 YTY% Chg. in Price 50% 40% Price Growth Remained near Lowest Level since Early 2012 Condo Single-Family Homes 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% SERIES: Median Price of Existing Condo/Townhomes

10 Jan-05 Jun-05 Nov-05 Apr-06 Sep-06 Feb-07 Jul-07 Dec-07 May-08 Oct-08 Mar-09 Aug-09 Jan-10 Jun-10 Nov-10 Apr-11 Sep-11 Feb-12 Jul-12 Dec-12 May-13 Oct-13 Mar-14 Aug-14 Jan-15 Jun-15 Nov-15 Apr-16 Sep-16 Feb-17 Jul-17 Dec-17 May-18 Oct-18 Median Price $600,000 Condo/Townhome Median Price Leveling off as Markets Move into Off Season Condo $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 Dec-17: $446,840 Dec-18: $460,660 $200,000 $100,000 $0 SERIES: Median Price of Existing Condos/Townhomes

11 CA Median Price (Existing SFH) 15% Month-to-Month % Chg 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes

12 Year-over-Year Price Growth by Percentile California Year-Over-Year Price Growth by Quintile (November 2018) 3.0% 2.7% 2.0% 1.0% 1.7% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% -1.0% -0.4% -2.0% -3.0% -2.0% -1.8% -2.6% -4.0% -5.0% Quintile -3.8% SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes

13 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 YTY% Chg. in Price 40% List Price Suggests a Bounce Back in Sales Price Growth California Median Sales vs. List Price Growth Sales Price Growth Lags List Price Growth by 4-6 Months 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% Listing Price Sales Price SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes

14 1/1/2010 4/1/2010 7/1/ /1/2010 1/1/2011 4/1/2011 7/1/ /1/2011 1/1/2012 4/1/2012 7/1/ /1/2012 1/1/2013 4/1/2013 7/1/ /1/2013 1/1/2014 4/1/2014 7/1/ /1/2014 1/1/2015 4/1/2015 7/1/ /1/2015 1/1/2016 4/1/2016 7/1/ /1/2016 1/1/2017 4/1/2017 7/1/ /1/2017 1/1/2018 4/1/2018 7/1/ /1/2018 Reduced-Price Listings Share of Listings with a Reduced Price: 38.3%; Median Reduction Amount: -4.3% California Reduced-Price Listings 50% 10% 38.3% 45% 9% 40% 8% 35% 7% 30% 6% 25% 5% 20% 4% 15% 3% 4.3% 10% 2% 5% 1% 0% 0% Share Reduced Median Reduction SERIES: Listing Price of Existing Single Family Homes

15 PRICE PER SQ. FT. Price Per Square Inched Up from Last Year, but Declined from November December 2018: $268, Down 5.0% MTM, Up 1.1% YTY $400 $350 $300 $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 $0 Dec-17: $266 Dec-18: $268 SERIES: Median Price Per Square Feet of Existing Single Family Homes

16 Sales-to-List Price Ratio Sales Price -to-list Price Hit the Lowest Level since Jan 2015 December 2018: 97.4%, -0.5% MTM, -1.3% YTY 100% Dec-17: 98.7% Dec-18: 97.4% 98% 96% 94% 92% 90% SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes

17 Sales-to-List Price Ratio by Percentile California Sales-to-List Price Ratio by Quintile 100.5% 100.0% 100.0% 99.8% 99.5% 99.0% 98.5% 99.3% 99.2% 98.4% 98.9% 98.4% 98.7% 98.0% 97.5% 97.0% 96.9% 96.5% 96.0% 95.5% 95.0% Dec-17 Dec-18 SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes

18 DAYS ON MARKET Time on Market Rises as the Market Slows California, December 2018: 32.0 Days SERIES: Median Time of Market of Existing Single Family Homes

19 Median Time on Market by Percentile California Median Time on Market by Quintile Dec-17 Dec-18 SERIES: Median Time on Market of Existing Single Family Homes

20 Inventory Index Down MTM but Up from 2017 December 2017: 2.5 Months; December 2018: 3.5 Months Note: Unsold Inventory Index represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were Active, Pending, and Contingent (when available) and divide the sum by the number of Sold properties for the month in question. SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes

21 Active Listings Continued to Increase for the 9 th Consecutive Month Year-over-Year % Chg 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% 30.6% SERIES: Active Listing of Existing Single Family Homes

22 Housing Supply Improved across the Board Dec 2018 Active Listing 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 20.4% 37.7% 49.1% 39.9% 26.3% 30.6% 10% 0% 1.9% 6.8% SERIES: Active Listings of Existing Single Family Homes

23 Inventory Improved as Sales Continued to Fall 9.0 Bay Area So CA Central Valley Note: Unsold Inventory Index represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were Active, Pending, and Contingent (when available) and divide the sum by the number of Sold properties for the month in question. SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes

24 Active Listings Active Listings Increased in All Regions 30,000 25,000 20,000 19,900 Dec-17 26,610 Dec-18 15,000 10,000 7,755 9,591 5,000 2,699 4,441 1,870 2,096 0 San Francisco Bay Area Southern California Central Valley Central Coast SERIES: Active Listings of Existing Single Family Homes

25 Year-to-Year % Chg Active Listings Increased in All Regions Dec % 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% 65% 34% -18% -17% -16% San Francisco Bay Area Sales Active Listings 24% 12% -25% Southern California Central Valley Central Coast SERIES: Sales and Listings of Existing Single Family Homes

26 Inventory Index Highest in Millions California Unsold Inventory Index by Segment Dec-17 Dec-18 SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes

27 Active Listings by Month 70,000 California Active Listings by Month 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,