REALTOR.COM MARKET OUTLOOK

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2 AGENDA Economic and housing data and insights from realtor.com National Forecast How well did we predict 2018? Looking forward to 2019 U.S. Economic Trends GDP, Jobs U.S. Housing Trends Ownership Up, EHS Struggle Supply: Inventory, Prices, Affordability Demand: Aging Millennials, Rents How Shoppers React How realtor.com data highlights U.S. trends & Local Data Cross Market Demand Generational Shopping Rochester Inventory, Sales & Hot Markets 2019 Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute. 2

3 NATIONAL FORECAST

4 2018 FORECAST Key economic and housing metrics from realtor.com Variable 2018 Forecast Year to Date Actual Tracking So Far? Existing Home Sales 3.2% -2.9% Lower Existing Home Prices 2.5% 4.7% Higher New Home Sales 7% 2.7% Lower Housing Starts 3% 5% Higher SF Housing Starts 7% 3% Lower Mortgage Rates 4.6% 4.6% As Expected 2019 Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute. 4

5 2018 INVENTORY PROJECTION Based on this pattern, realtor.com projects U.S. year-over-year inventory growth to tick up into positive territory by fall 2018, for the first time since Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute. 5

6 2018 INVENTORY TRENDS Month Inventory Y/Y June -4.3% July -3.7% August -1.9% September -0.0% October +1.6% November +3.9% December +5.3% 2019 Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute. 6

7 2019 FORECAST Key economic and housing metrics from NAR and realtor.com National Association of REALTORS Macro Forecast: Real GDP grows 1.9% in 2019 (vs. 3.1% in 2018, 2.2% in 2017) Nonfarm payroll employment grows 1.0% in 2019 (vs. 1.6% in 2018, 1.6% in 2017) Unemployment rises to 4.1% in 2019 (vs to 3.9% in 2018, 4.4% in 2017) realtor.com 2019 Housing Forecast: Existing home prices appreciate 2.2% Existing home sales down 2.0% Single family housing starts increase 8% 30-year fixed conforming rate averages 5.3% Homeownership rate increases to 64.6% 2019 Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute. 7

8 U.S. ECONOMIC TRENDS

9 ECONOMIC GROWTH IS STRONG Consumption drives strong growth, Investment improves Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Realtor.com Analysis 2019 Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute. 9

JOB CREATION GENERALLY SLOWING 220,000 monthly average in past 12 months, Dec saw 312,000

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE Plans to purchase a home dip in December Source: The Conference

12 U.S. HOUSING TRENDS

13 2018 MOST COMPETITIVE SEASON ON RECORD What are the hallmarks and drivers of the most competitive season? Supply: Not Keeping Pace Inventory - at record lows and continuing to decline Prices - at record highs and still increasing Affordability - least affordable since 2008/09, but more affordable than most of early 2000s and 1990s Demand: More Buyers in the Market Aging Millennials want to own peak millennial coming to the housing market in 2020 Rents - rising in 73% of counties Existing Home Sales Struggle to Break Out 2019 Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute. 13

14 2019 MARKET SHIFTS Supply comes back for some; affordability challenge reduces buyer competition Supply: Not Keeping Pace Coming back in some markets/price-levels Inventory - at record lows and continuing to decline (now up 5.3% in Dec) Prices - at record highs and still increasing (up 7.1% in Dec) Affordability - least affordable since 2008/09, but more affordable than most of early 2000s and 1990s Demand: More Buyers in the Market Aging Millennials want to own peak millennial coming to the housing market in 2020 Rents - rising in 73% of counties Existing Home Sales Struggle to Break Out 2019 Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute. 14

OWNERSHIP RECOVERING 64.4% home ownership rate off low; 1.

16 FOUR KEY HOUSING TRENDS IN Modest inventory gains continue; high-end inventory growth spreads 2. Soft home sales continue 3. Millennials purchase the most homes 4. Tax plan still a wild card for housing 2019 Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute. 16

17 SUPPLY SIDE

INVENTORY UP Inventory Increased 5% Y/Y in December Source: Realtor.

HIGH-COST MARKETS LEAD INVENTORY GAINS 2019 Move,

PRICES CONTINUE TO RISE Median List Price at $289,000, Up 7.

23 INVENTORY DIVERGENCE 4.3 months supply for existing and 7.4 months for new Source: National Association of REALTORS, Commerce Department 2019 Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute. 23

26 NEW & EXISTING SALES DOWN Sales down 5.1% for existing and 12.0% for new Y/Y in October Source: National Association of REALTORS, Commerce Department 2019 Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute. 26

HOUSING STARTS DOWN Down 3.6% Y/Y with SF down 13.1% and MF up 21.

29 DEMAND DRIVERS

MILLENNIALS: 45% OF MORTGAGE BUYERS 2019 Move, Inc.

32 Thousands DEMOGRAPHICS SET THE TABLE When viewed by age, importance of Millennials becomes clearer US Population by Age, End of ,000 4,500 Z 65 million Millennial 88 million X 61 million Boomer 78 million 29 million 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Source: Realtor.com Analysis of US Census Bureau Population Estimates (2016) 2019 Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute. 32

33 HISTORIC AFFORDABILITY DECLINING 30-year conforming rate averaged 4.6% in past 12 months Source: Moody s Analytics, Freddie Mac, and National Association of REALTORS 2019 Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute. 33

MILLENNIAL OWNERSHIP VARIES Strong correlation with affordable markets Source: Realtor.

35 CHEAPER TO BUY IN 39% OF COUNTIES Simple monthly cost analysis favors renting now in more places December 2018 Source: Realtor.com Analysis of HUD Median Rents, Nielsen Pop-Facts Demographics and Realtor.com Data 2019 Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute. 35

36 RENTS RISING Y/Y IN 73% OF COUNTIES Rent increases adding to demand for buying 2018 Source: Realtor.com Analysis of HUD Median Market Rents 2019 Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute. 36

LIFE DRIVES HOUSING DEMAND Everyone s tired of waiting and Millennials are building families Top 10 Buying Triggers all 25-34 tired of current home favorable home prices change of family

37 LIFE DRIVES HOUSING DEMAND Everyone s tired of waiting and Millennials are building families Top 10 Buying Triggers all tired of current home favorable home prices change of family circumstance/composition getting married/moving in with partner looking for a safer neighhorhood increase in family size relocated to a new city planning an increase to family size 13% desire to live closer to good schools increase in income change of job/job location 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Source: realtor.com Active Home Shopper Survey, September Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute. 37

MILLENNIALS LEADING SALES GROWTH Sales with Millennial names increased by 5.

WOMEN LEADING SALES GROWTH Female names account for 7 of 10 fastest growing names on

HISPANIC BUYERS GAINING INFLUENCE Three names within the top 20: Julio,

41 CURRENT CONDITIONS & LOCAL DATA

HOTTEST MARKETS West Coast, Rocky Mountains, and Midwest are

CROSS MARKET DEMAND INCOMING VIEWS Rochester Draws Buyers From Buffalo and

CROSS MARKET DEMAND INCOMING VIEWS Rochester Draws Buyers From Boston

CROSS MARKET DEMAND OUTGOING VIEWS Rochester Buyers Looking Toward Florida

48 HOME OWNERSHIP

MILLENNIAL HOME OWNERSHIP IN NEW YORK Overall Ownership Rate in Region is 28% vs 41% Nationally

MILLENNIAL HOME OWNERSHIP IN ROCHESTER Overall Ownership Rate in Region is 43% vs 41% Nationally

53 LISTING PRICES & PRICE GROWTH

LISTING PRICES IN ROCHESTER AREA Ontario County Has Highest Median List Price at

LISTING PRICES IN ROCHESTER AREA Pittsford (14534) is Most Expensive Zip Code

57 LISTING PRICES IN ROCHESTER Most Expensive Zip Codes in Rochester Area (Dec 2018) Rank Zip Code Zip Name Median List Price Median List Price Y/Y Pittsford, NY $437,500-1% Victor, NY $379,450 5% Canandaigua, NY $299,950 0% Fairport, NY $299,950-5% Webster, NY $297,050 11% Spencerport, NY $294,950 23% Penfield, NY $267,550 2% West Henrietta, NY $264,295 6% Rochester, NY $259,950-19% Farmington, NY $240,040 2% 2019 Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute. 57

LISTING PRICE GROWTH IN ROCHESTER AREA 71% of Zips Experienced Price Growth

59 LISTING PRICES IN ROCHESTER Fastest Growing Zip Codes in Rochester Area (Dec 2018) Rank Zip Code Zip Name Median List Price Y/Y Median List Price Spencerport, NY 23% $294, Rochester, NY 20% $104, Rochester, NY 17% $139, Rochester, NY 15% $114, Rochester, NY 13% $139, Webster, NY 11% $297, Rochester, NY 8% $39, Hilton, NY 7% $234, West Henrietta, NY 6% $264, Victor, NY 5% $379, Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute. 59

60 ACTIVE INVENTORY

ACTIVE INVENTORY IN ROCHESTER AREA Single Family and Condo Active Listings

ACTIVE INVENTORY IN ROCHESTER Single Family and Condo Active Listings

65 ACTIVE INVENTORY IN ROCHESTER Most Active Zip Codes in Rochester Area (Dec 2018) Rank Zip Code Zip Name Active Listings Active Listings Y/Y Canandaigua, NY 144-9% Webster, NY % Victor, NY % Pittsford, NY 99-10% Fairport, NY 98 27% Hilton, NY 72-17% Rochester, NY 62 3% Rochester, NY 60-21% Rochester, NY 59-13% Rochester, NY 52-7% 2019 Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute. 65

66 LISTING CHANGE IN ROCHESTER Listings Still Declining in Some Zip Codes in Rochester Area (Dec 2018) Rank Zip Code Zip Name Active Listings Y/Y Active Listings Rochester, NY -41% Rochester, NY -28% Rochester, NY -23% Rochester, NY -21% Rochester, NY -21% Hilton, NY -17% Rochester, NY -13% Pittsford, NY -10% Canandaigua, NY -9% Rochester, NY -7% Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute. 66

69 AGE OF INVENTORY IN ROCHESTER Age of inventory breakdown by zip code (Dec 2018) Rank Zip Code Zip Name Median Age Median Age (days) Y/Y Rochester, NY 40-14% Penfield, NY 45 0% Rochester, NY 47 2% Rochester, NY 48-33% Farmington, NY 51 9% Rochester, NY 52 26% Brockport, NY 52 8% Rochester, NY 52 16% Rochester, NY 52-12% Rochester, NY 56 9% 2019 Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute. 69

70 AGE OF INVENTORY Y/Y IN ROCHESTER Age of inventory breakdown by zip code (Dec 2018) Rank Zip Code Zip Name Median Age Median Age (days) Y/Y Rochester, NY 48-33% Rochester, NY 67-19% Webster, NY 61-16% Rochester, NY 40-14% Rochester, NY 52-12% Rochester, NY 58-9% Penfield, NY 45 0% Victor, NY 60 0% Rochester, NY 47 2% Brockport, NY 52 8% 2019 Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute. 70

HOTTEST COUNTIES IN ROCHESTER AREA Monroe County Among Top Performing Counties in U.S. (Q4 2018) Source: Realtor.

HOTTEST ZIP CODES IN ROCHESTER AREA Top 10 Performing Zip Codes (Q4 2018)

HOUSEHOLD GROWTH 2018-2023 72% of Zips Seeing Growth Source: Nielsen Demographics

Economic Research realtor.com @RDC_Economics https://www.youtube.

THE OUTLOOK FOR HOUSING IN ILLINOIS

THE OUTLOOK FOR HOUSING IN ILLINOIS Jonathan Smoke Chief Economist January 25, 2017 NATIONAL TRENDS 2 2000.01 2000.05 2000.09 2001.01 2001.05 2001.09 2002.01 2002.05 2002.09 2003.01 2003.05 2003.09 2004.01