Santa Clara County Real Estate Market Overview Dynamics

Transcription

1 Santa Clara County Real Estate Market Overview Dynamics Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers should be considered approximate.

2 Jan-90 Sep-90 May-91 Jan-92 Sep-92 May-93 Jan-94 Sep-94 May-95 Jan-96 Sep-96 May-97 Jan-98 Sep-98 May-99 Jan-00 Sep-00 May-01 Jan-02 Sep-02 May-03 Jan-04 Sep-04 May-05 Jan-06 Sep-06 May-07 Jan-08 Sep-08 May-09 Jan-10 Sep-10 May-11 Jan-12 Sep-12 May-13 Jan-14 Sep-14 May-15 Jan-16 Sep-16 May-17 Jan-18 Sep-18 Santa Clara County Home Price Appreciation Median House Sales Prices, 1990 Present, by Month Median sales prices for existing houses per MLS & CA Association of Realtors. Sales reported to MLS by 12/31/18 $1,400,000 $1,300,000 $1,200,000 $1,100, peak $1,000,000 $900,000 $800,000 Early 90 s recession after 80 s boom Mid-90 s recovery to dotcom boom Decline in loan standards Market crash & recession recovery $700,000 $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 Monthly median sales prices for existing houses since 1990, per CA Association of Realtors. Analysis may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers are approximate.

3 Santa Clara County Home Price Appreciation Annual Median House Sales Prices since 1990 $1,300,000 $1,200,000 $1,100,000 $1,000,000 $900,000 $800,000 $700,000 $600,000 $500,000 Mid-90 s recovery to dotcom boom Subprime bubble recovery $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 Early 90 s recession, after 80 s boom Collapse in loan standards Market crash & recession $100,000 $0 Median sales figures can be affected by other market factors besides changes in fair market value. Per MLS & CA Association of Realtors for existing single family dwellings. Analysis may contain errors and subject to revision.

4 Santa Clara Median House Price Changes Since 1994 Annual % Change, Comparing Annual Median Sales Price to Previous Year 35.0% 25.0% 15.0% 5.0% 9.0% 0.3% 7.3% Year-over-Year Percentage Change in Annual Median Sales Price 15.5%15.3% 9.1% 31.7% 0.2% 3.8% 0.9% 14.0% 17.2% 5.2% 8.3% 2010 Homebuyer tax credit 2008 financial markets crash 12.3% 13.2% 20.9% 10.3% 10.6% 7.3% 15.6% 13.1% -5.0% -4.2% -15.0% Mid-90 s recovery to peak of dotcom bubble Financing bubble Recovery high-tech boom -25.0% -20.2% -20.7% Market Recession For Santa Clara County, per CA Association of Realtors for existing single family dwellings. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers are approximate.

5 Annual Home Sales Volumes Santa Clara County Market Trends since 2005 MLS residential sales data. 22,085 22,000 Sales volume is determined not only by the strength of buyer demand, but by the inventory of listings available to purchase. 21,000 20,000 19,000 17,115 13,041 12,130 16,216 15,708 15,889 16,920 16,069 15,598 15, market recovery 14,547 15,329 14,110 18,000 17,000 16,000 15,000 14,000 13,000 12, market decline, crash and recession ,000 10,000 9,000 These analyses were performed in good faith with data derived from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.

6 Santa Clara County Real Estate Market 12 Months Unit House Sales & Median Sales Prices As reported to MLS through 11/30/18 Cambrian, S.J. 672 Blossom Vly, S.J. 649 Sunnyvale 623 Santa Clara 586 Willow Glen, S.J. Gilroy Evergreen, S.J. Los Gatos/M.S. Morgan Hill Palo Alto Alamaden Vly, S.J. Milpitas Campbell Los Altos Saratoga Cupertino Mountain View Los Altos Hills Number of house sales reported to MLS Median HOUSE Sales Prices & Avg. $/S.F. Los Altos Hills $4,500,000 $1231/s.f. Los Altos $3,400,000 $1478/s.f. Palo Alto $3,215,000 $1776/s.f. Saratoga $2,805,000 $1094/s.f. Cupertino $2,371,000 $1244/s.f. Mountain View $2,350,000 $1412/s.f. Los Gatos, M.S. $1,970,000 $ 877/s.f. Sunnyvale $1,900,000 $1201/s.f. Almaden Vly $1,640,000 $ 715/s.f. Campbell $1,513,500 $ 918/s.f. Willow Glen $1,490,000 $ 844/s.f. Santa Clara $1,480,000 $1015/s.f. Cambrian $1,310,000 $ 863/s.f. Evergreen $1,250,000 $ 621/s.f. Milpitas $1,200,000 $ 746/s.f. Morgan Hill $1,050,000 $ 464/s.f. South San Jose $ 825,000 $ 590/s.f. Gilroy $ 785,000 $ 400/s.f. Median house sizes range from 1400 to 3700 s.f. San Jose in its entirety had 5315 house sales during the 12 month period. This chart breaks out selected S.J. neighborhoods. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision.

7 Santa Clara County Home Value Trends Median Dollar per Square Foot Values, 1996 Present Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI): A smoothed, seasonally adjusted measure of median estimated home values. Median values disguise a wide range of values in the underlying sales. Counties include cities and neighborhoods of widely varying values. Previous market peak $800 $750 $700 $650 $600 $550 $500 $450 $400 $350 $300 Decline in loan standards Market crash & recession recovery $250 $200 $150 Mid-90 s recovery to dotcom boom $100 $50 $- Updated 12/2018. For house, condo and co-op sales. Data from Zillow Research: Median value is that value at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. Analysis may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.

8 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q $980,000 $960,000 $936,000 $970,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,080,000 $1,070,000 $1,182,888 $1,161,000 $1,270,000 $1,300,000 $1,250,000 $1,372,000 $1,400,000 Santa Clara County House Price Appreciation Median House Sales Prices, 2015 Present, by Quarter As reported to MLS, per Broker Metrics Seasonal fluctuations are common. Longer-term trends are more meaningful than short-term changes. $1,450,000 $1,400,000 $1,350,000 $1,300,000 $1,250,000 $1,200,000 $1,150,000 $1,100,000 $1,050,000 $1,000,000 $950,000 $900,000 $850,000 $800,000 Sales reported by 1/2/19. Median sales price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. It is a very general statistic that can be affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. All numbers are approximate and subject

9 Year-over-Year Appreciation Rates by Quarter Santa Clara County, % Changes in Median House Sales Prices Sales reported to MLS, per Broker Metrics 125% Percentages reflect appreciation rates in median house sales price, comparing the quarter delineated with the same quarter in the previous year: 127.0% 128.3% 120% 127% signifies 27% year-over-year appreciation in median sales price. 99% = 1% y-o-y decline 118.4% 116.1% 115% 112.0% 110% 110.3% 109.5% 106.8% 105% 104.2% 100% Year-over-Year Appreciation 98.9% 95% Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Median sales prices are prone to fluctuation, sometimes without great meaningfulness as to changes in fair market value. Longer term trends are always more important than short-term changes. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate.

10 Santa Clara County House Sales 12 Months Sales by Bedroom Count [as of 12/28/18] House sales reported to MLS, per Broker Metrics. 2 Bedrooms 3 Bedrooms 4 Bedrooms 5+ Bedrooms Santa Clara house sales by bedroom count and price segment Behind the single median house sales price for Santa Clara is an enormous range of thousands of individual sales $500k - $749k $750K - $999K $1m - $1.249m $1.25m - $1.49m $1.5m - $1.749m $1.75m - $1.99m $2m - $2.249m $2.25m - $2.49m $2.5m - $2.99m $3m - $4.99m $5m - $9.99m+ $10m+ Not all sales are reported to MLS. This analysis was performed in good faith with data derived from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and is subject to revision. All numbers approximate.

11 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Average Sales Price to Original List Price (SP-OP) Percentage Santa Clara County Market: Overbidding of Asking Prices MLS sales of houses, condos, townhouses, duets, per Broker Metrics. 111% signifies an average sales price 11% over original asking price. 96% = 4% below asking price. Spring % 110% 109% Autumn % 107% Spring % 105% 104% 103% Autumn 2016 Over Asking Price Autumn % 101% 100% 99% 98% 97% 96% 95% These analyses were performed in good faith with data derived from sources deemed reliable, but they may contain errors and are subject to revision. All numbers approximate.

12 Silicon Valley Home Value Trends Median Dollar per Square Foot Values, 1996 Present Atherton Palo Alto Los Altos Menlo Park Hillsborough Burlingame Saratoga Selected High Price Cities in Santa Clara & San Mateo Counties Previous market peak Cities include neighborhoods of widely varying values. Home size also plays a role: All things being equal, a smaller home will sell for a higher dollar per square foot value. Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI): A smoothed, seasonally adjusted measure of median estimated home values. $2,000 $1,800 $1,600 $1,400 $1,200 $1,000 $800 Mid-90 s recovery to dotcom boom Decline in loan standards Market crash & recession recovery $600 $400 $200 $- Updated 12/2018. For house, condo and co-op sales. Data from Zillow Research: Median value is that value at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. Analysis may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.

13 Santa Clara COUNTY Condo Price Appreciation Median CONDO Sales Prices, 1996 Present Estimates from Zillow Research $900,000 $800,000 Median values disguise a wide range of values in the overall market. Counties include markets of widely varying values. Previous market peak $700,000 $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 Decline in loan standards Market crash & recession recovery $300,000 $200,000 Mid-90 s recovery to dotcom boom $100,000 $- Data from Zillow Research: Median sales price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. Analysis may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.

14 Santa Clara Home Sales Breakdown 12 Months Sales by Property Type & Bedroom Count Sales reported to MLS 8/1/17 7/31/18 3-BR Condos Sales Avg sq.ft BR House Sales Avg sq.ft. Average Sales Prices 2-BR Houses - $1,155,500 3-BR Houses - $1,350, BR Condo Sales Avg sq.ft BR House Sales Avg sq.ft. 4-BR Houses - $1,646, BR Houses - $2,372, BR Condo Sales Avg. 788 sq.ft. 1-BR Condos - $599, BR House Sales Avg sq.ft BR House Sales Avg sq.ft. 2-BR Condos - $838,000 3-BR Condos - $1,078,000 Does not include sales unreported to MLS. Based upon data sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers should be considered approximate.

15 Silicon Valley Home Sales Breakdown 2018 YTD Sales by Price, San Mateo & Santa Clara House and condo sales reported to MLS by 8/24/18 Home sales of $3 million+ = 7% of total sales. Sales by Price Segment Under $1,000, Sales $2 million to $2.99m = 12% of total sales Sales under $1,000,000 = 30% of sales of the 4004 were condo sales of the 4004 were in San Jose. $1m - $1,499,999 $1.5m - $1,999,999 $2m - $2,999, Sales $1.5 million to $1.99m = 16.5% of sales Sales $1 million to $1,499,999 = 34.5% of total sales of the 4661 were condo sales. $3m - $4,999,999 $5,000,000+ The 3551 condo sales in the period made up 26% of total home sales. Sales reported to MLS: Not all sales are reported to MLS. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate.

16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 New Listings & Listings Accepting Offers Santa Clara County Market Seasonality Activity reported to MLS, per Broker Metrics # New Listings Coming on Market # Listings Accepting Offers Spring 2018 Spring 2017 Summer-Autumn Summer-Autumn The market is fiercely seasonal, activity typically peaking in spring and plunging in mid-winter Mid-Winter Mid-Winter Mid-Winter Residential activity reported to MLS. December 2018 numbers are estimates. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.

17 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Average Days on Market by Price Segment by Quarter Silicon Valley Real Estate Market Dynamics, 2015 to Present Santa Clara and San Mateo residential market activity, per Broker Metrics The lower the average days on market, the faster buyers are snapping up new listings. 40 $3 Million Average days on market typically ebb and flow by season with Q2 usually being the period of highest demand. Extremely hot market $2m - $2,999,999 $1m - $1,999,999 Under $1 Million For sold properties, per Broker Metrics. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision.

18 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Avg. Sales Price to Original List Price % by Price Segment Silicon Valley Real Estate Market Dynamics, 2015 to Present Santa Clara and San Mateo residential market activity, per Broker Metrics. The greater the competition between buyers for new listings coming on market the higher the Sales Price to Original List Price Percentage. 114% 112% 110% 108% 106% 104% 102% 100% 98% 96% 94% The higher the percentage, the hotter the market. Any reading over 100% signifies an average sales price over asking price. 110% = 10% overbidding. Extremely hot market Under $1 Million $1m - $1,999,999 $2m - $2,999,999 $3 Million+ 92% Activity reported to MLS, per Broker Metrics. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision.

19 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Percentage of Listings Accepting Offers by Price Segment Silicon Valley Real Estate Market Dynamics, 2015 to Present The higher the percentage of listings accepting offers (going into contract), the stronger the buyer demand as compared to the supply of listings for sale. Generally speaking, the lower the price segment, the higher the percentage. Santa Clara and San Mateo residential market activity, per Broker Metrics. 80% 70% Over 50% and 60% are very high quarterly percentages by historical standards. Under $1 Million 60% 50% $1m - $1,999,999 40% Extremely hot market $2m - $2,999,999 30% $3 Million+ 20% Activity reported to MLS, per Broker Metrics. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision.

20 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Santa Clara County Market Seasonality New Home Listings Coming on Market since 2014 Houses, condos and townhomes. May April May Sept April 2017 May 2018 Sept Oct December December December December December 200 Data per Realtor.com Research Data at Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers should be considered approximate.

21 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Santa Clara Market Dynamics Listings Expired or Withdrawn (No Sale) Houses, condos, duets, duplexes as listed in MLS per Broker Metrics. Listings typically expire or are withdrawn without selling due to being perceived as overpriced by buyers, and/or to avoid the slower markets of mid-late summer and mid-winter. December is typically the month with the highest number of these listings. Many re-list in the new year, often at lower prices. December December December December number estimated from data available on 1/2/19. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers should be considered approximate.

22 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Active Listings on Market on Average Day of Month Santa Clara County Market Supply & Seasonality, by Month since 2012 May 2012 This is a snapshot measure of how many active listings can be expected on any given day of the specified month. The number of active listings is affected by 2 major dynamics: 1) How many new listings come on market, and 2) how quickly buyers purchase them. Mid-Winter August 2013 Mid-Winter August 2014 Mid-Winter September 2015 Mid-Winter July May 2017 Mid-Winter Mid-Winter Oct ,000 3,750 3,500 3,250 3,000 2,750 2,500 2,250 2,000 1,750 1,500 1,250 1, Per Realtor.com Real Estate Data Library: for houses, condos and townhouses. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.

23 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Number of Listings Accepting Offers Santa Clara County Market Seasonality by Month Buyer demand typically peaks in spring, drops to plateau in summer-early autumn, and then plunges going into the mid-winter holidays. As reported to MLS, per Broker Metrics Summer 2016 Autumn 2016 Spring 2017 Autumn 2017 Spring 2018 Autumn Mid-Winter Mid-Winter Residential activity reported to MLS. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers should be considered approximate.

24 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Price Reductions on Active Listings by Month Santa Clara County Market Seasonality, by Month since 2012 June 2012 Price reductions typically climb after the end of the spring selling season, increasing through the end of summer or early autumn, as sellers try to sell their homes prior to the market slowdowns of mid-summer and mid-winter. August 2013 August 2014 October 2015 August 2016 May 2017 Oct Per Realtor.com Real Estate Data Library: Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.

25 Price Reductions on Active Listings by Quarter Santa Clara County Market Seasonality, by Month since 2014 Price reductions typically climb after the end of the spring selling season, increasing through the end of summer or early autumn, as sellers try to sell their homes prior to the market slowdowns of mid-summer and mid-winter. Q Q Q Q Q ,800 1,700 1,600 1,500 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 1, Per Realtor.com Real Estate Data Library: Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.

26 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Median Days on Market Santa Clara County Market Demand & Seasonality since 2012 Mid-Winter 2012 Median days on market in this analysis is defined as the time between the initial listing of a property and either its closing date or the date it is taken off the market. Mid-Winter 60 Mid-Winter Mid-Winter Mid-Winter Mid-Winter 50 Mid-Winter 40 Spring Spring Spring Spring Spring Spring Per Realtor.com Real Estate Data Library: Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.

27 Jan 2008 Apr 2008 Jul 2008 Oct 2008 Jan 2009 Apr 2009 Jul 2009 Oct 2009 Jan 2010 Apr 2010 Jul 2010 Oct 2010 Jan 2011 Apr 2011 Jul 2011 Oct 2011 Jan 2012 Apr 2012 Jul 2012 Oct 2012 Jan 2013 Apr 2013 Jul 2013 Oct 2013 Jan 2014 Apr 2014 Jul 2014 Oct 2014 Jan 2015 Apr 2015 Jul 2015 Oct 2015 Jan 2016 Apr 2016 Jul 2016 Oct 2016 Jan 2017 Apr 2017 Jul 2017 Oct 2017 Jan 2018 Apr 2018 Jul 2018 Unsold Inventory Index in Months of Supply of Active Listings Santa Clara County Real Estate Market since 2008 California Association of Realtors for existing single family dwellings The CAR Unsold Inventory Index measures how long it would take to sell the current inventory of active listings at the current rate of sale. The lower the MSI, the stronger the buyer demand as compared to the supply of listings on the market. Under 3 months of inventory would typically be considered to indicate a sellers market. Like most market statistics, this measurement is subject to seasonal fluctuations Market recession 2012 Market recovery 0 Per California Association of Realtors Annual Historical Data Summary and Monthly Market Reviews. Initial months on chart topped out at 10 months of inventory. Not seasonally adjusted; does not include condo Inventory. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. Numbers are approximate.

28 Santa Clara County Sales Volume by Month Market Dynamics & Seasonality: Unit Sales Sales of houses, condos, townhouses & duets reported to MLS, per Broker Metrics Spring into Summer 1698 Spring into Summer Autumn into Winter Autumn into Winter Autumn House and condo activity reported to MLS, per Broker Metrics. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers should be considered approximate.

29 Sales Volume by Quarter Santa Clara County Market Dynamics & Seasonality Autumn into Winter Spring into Summer Autumn into Winter Spring into Summer Autumn into Winter Spring into Summer Autumn House and condo activity reported to MLS, per Broker Metrics. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers should be considered approximate.

30 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 New Listings & Listings Accepting Offers, $3 Million+ Silicon Valley Luxury Home Market Seasonality # New Listings Coming on Market, $3m+ # Listings Accepting Offers, $3m+ San Mateo and Santa Clara activity reported to MLS, per Broker Metrics Spring 2018 September 2018 September 2016 Spring 2017 September Summer Summer 60 Summer Mid-Winter Mid-Winter 0 Residential activity reported to MLS. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers should be considered approximate.

31 Santa Clara County High-End Homes Market Sales Prices of $2,000,000 & Above, by Quarter The market for higher-priced homes in Santa Clara fluctuates by season, with spring typically the dominant selling season. In Q2 2018, home sales of $2 million and above exploded, climbing 36% higher than in Q2 2017, but in Q3 & Q the number of sales dropped on a year over year basis Q sales estimated from data available on 1/2/19. Sales reported to MLS. Data from sources deemed reliable, but subject to error and revision. All numbers are approximate.

32 Santa Clara County Luxury Home Sales by Month Sales Prices of $3 Million & Above Sales reported to MLS, per Broker Metrics Spring into Summer Spring into Summer Autumn into Winter Autumn into Winter Autumn into Winter Sales activity reported to MLS, per Broker Metrics. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers should be considered approximate.

33 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Year-over-Year Appreciation Rates by Month Santa Clara County, % Changes in Median House Sales Prices Sales reported to MLS, per Broker Metrics 34.8% Percentages reflect appreciation rates in median house sales price, comparing the month delineated with the same month in the previous year. 26.7% 25.8% 27.4% 28.4% 30% 22.8% 25% 17.7% These are insanely high appreciation rates 16.8% 17.3% 16.0% 20% 12.4% 15% Autumn % 6.3% 5.0% 5% -1.6% 0% -5% Monthly median sales prices are prone to fluctuation, sometimes without great meaningfulness as to changes in fair market value. Longer term trends are always more important than short-term changes. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate.

34 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Percentage of Listings Accepting Offers Santa Clara County Market Dynamics by Month As reported to MLS, per Broker Metrics Generally speaking, the higher the percentage, the stronger the demand as compared to the supply of listings for sale. 50%+ indicates a ferociously hot market. Spring into Summer 2017 Autumn 2017 Spring % 55% 50% Autumn 2016 Autumn % 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% House and condo activity reported to MLS, per Broker Metrics. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers should be considered approximate.

35 Santa Clara County CONDO Sales 12 Months Sales by Bedroom Count [as of 8/1/18] Sales reported to MLS Studio & 1 Bedroom 2 Bedrooms 3 Bedrooms $250,000 - $499,000 $500,000 - $749,000 $750,000 - $999,000 $1m - $1,249,000 $1.25m - $1,499,000 $1.5m - $1,749,000 $1,750,000+ This analysis was performed in good faith with data derived from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate.

36 Bay Area High-End Home Market by County Homes Selling for $2,000,000+, 12 Months Sales Sales reported to MLS by 11/15/18 Sales $2m - $2,999,999 Sales $3m - $4,999,999 Sales $5,000,000+ Santa Clara San Mateo The 2 Silicon Valley counties now dominate Bay Area luxury home sales San Francisco Marin Alameda San Francisco is the only county with a large luxury condo and co-op market: 32% of its total home sales of $2m+ The $2 million threshold is relatively arbitrary: In some affluent neighborhoods, $2m would buy a tear-down, while in others, a gorgeous mansion on a big lot. Contra Costa Virtually all of Contra Costa County luxury home sales are in Diablo Valley & Lamorinda Sonoma Napa /21/13 High-end home sales in the wine country often include substantial acreage Unit Sales within Price Segment Sales of houses, condos, co-ops, TICs and townhouses reported to MLS: Not all luxury home sales are reported to MLS. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate.

37 Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE Equal Housing Opportunity. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally available to the public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the report. Nothing contained herein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice and Compass does not provide such advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no representation regarding the accuracy of any statements regarding any references to the laws, statutes or regulations of any state are those of the author(s). Past performance is no guarantee of future results.