Welcome to the 6 th Annual Real Estate Symposium for The Lake of the Ozarks. October 17 th, 2013 Osage National Golf Resort

Transcription

1 Welcome to the 6 th Annual Real Estate Symposium for The Lake of the Ozarks October 17 th, 2013 Osage National Golf Resort

2 Missouri State Representative District 155 Diane Franklin

3 Real Estate The National Perspective Steve Snook

4 Steve Snook Kansas City Director RE/MAX Mid-states & Dixie Regions

5 20133

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7 All Real Estate is Local With the exception of high-cost markets (primarily San Francisco south to San Diego, and Washington, DC north to Boston), as well as Seattle and Miami, house prices in most parts of the country are very affordable. With high affordability, these markets can absorb a further rise in mortgage rates before we would expect housing activity to slow substantially.

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9 How Will Rising Interest Rates Affect Affordability? (KC Medium income 70K) Med Price 3.5% 4.5% 5.5% 6.5% 7.5% $144,000 $278,000 $256,000 $235,000 $217,000 $201,000

10 Prepare for a Boom in New Homes Sales David Liniger, RE/MAX Co-Founder October Issue of RISMedia

11 Drivers of New Home Business Low Supply High Demand Household Formation Population Growth/Immigration Low Inventory of Resales Rising Prices Return of Housing as Safe Long Term Investment!

12 What about land prices? Lack of Supply of Land Increasing Population Huge Demand Global Interest More Efficient Farm Methods Crop Prices on the Upswing

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14 The Recovery Predictions for 2014 Rising Confidence Lower Unemployment Transaction Volume up 17% - $340 Billion Real Estate Investment Trusts (REIT) average return in % Return on Apartments, Retail, Industrial 9% Home prices up nationwide Back to 2006

15 Red Flags Strength vs. Weakness

16 Big Picture Challenges United States Congress National Debt Cost & Supply of Product and Materials Employment Stability The New Normal Inflation Global Conflicts Global Warming

17 My Opinion of What Makes America Great is YOU! Whatever you can do, or dream you can, begin it! BOLDNESS has GENIUS, MAGIC, and POWER in it.

18 Jeff Krantz The Lake of the Ozarks Real Estate Market

19 Ok, so where was the Lake s bottom???

20 3000 Total Transactions All Property Types Units Sold through 3 rd Quarter was our Lake Markets bottom in number of sales

21 Total Volume All Property Types 600,000, ,000, m Through 3rd Quarter of Each Year 400,000, m 358 m 300,000, m 246 m 253 m 285 m 200,000, ,000, In Volume of Sales 2010 was the Lake s Low

22 The Lake Market Bounced on the Bottom for 3 Years! 2009/2010/ Very little transaction gain, within 7% - Volume change within 3% for 3 years

23 Climbing Out: Increased 13% in # Sold, and 12% in Volume over Increased 16% in # Sold, and 25% in Volume over 2012

24 Inventory Includes all New Listings that came on the market through the 3 rd Quarter of Each Year Represents a 22% decline in New Listings from 2009

25 Market Absorption Rates: 6409 New Listings 2420 Total Sales 1 Sale out of every 2.65 Listings 7114 New Listings 1378 Total Sales 1 Sale out of every 5.16 Listings 5874 New Listings 1891 Total Sales 1 Sale out of every 3.1 Listings

26 The Lake Market Today

27 Residential Waterfront Market Year # Sales Volume Median Sold Price $129,415,478 $232, $139,485,372 $225, $167,910,953 $240,000 (+5%) (+20%) (+7%)

28 Residential Waterfront Market Residential Waterfront Foreclosure Sales Sales Volume $7,867,156 (9.5% of sales, 6% volume for that year) $6,903,342 (7% of the sales, 5% volume for that year) $8,600,231 (9% of the sales, 5% volume for this year)

29 Residential Off-Water Market Year # Sales Volume Median Sold Price $46,582,621 $83, $58,180,081 $96, $81,131,622 $106,750 (+20%) (+40%) (+11%)

30 Residential Off-Water Market Residential Off-Water Foreclosure Sales $12,555,302 (39% of Off-Water sales in 2011) $12,875,619 (31% of Off-Water sales in 2012) $10,685,130 (25% of Off-Water sales this year)

31 Condominium Market Year # Sales Volume Median Sold Price $64,920,420 $150, $70,004,433 $145, $71,972,881 $146,000 (+4%)

32 Condominium Market Condominium Foreclosure Sales Sales Volume $3,090,611 8% of Condo sales $4,395,049 9% of Condo sales $1,994,950 5% of Condo sales

33 Sales Volume $5,377, $14,329,680 Commercial Market Over a 60% increase in sales and volume! In the years, commercial sales ranged from units sold and $19 $24million in production through the third quarters of those years. Although we are not yet at those levels, the commercial interest in the lake has increased considerably this year.

34 In Summary: Residential Market: Increased Sales/Increased Volume Decreasing Inventory Decreasing Foreclosures Home Construction Sites are more visible Values have stabilized and this year have shown signs of appreciation in some sectors of the market.

35 In Summary: Condominium Market: Slightly Decreasing Inventory Flat but Stable Sales and Volume Numbers Very Few Foreclosures Majority of sales are resale units Many Stalled out/bank owned Projects being cleaned up and sold Very little new development coming online

36 In Summary: Commercial/Land Market: Commercial interest is on the rise. Area Growth projections are strong. Lake Lots sales and interest are increasing Quality Lake Lot Inventories are low. Farm & Acreage market doubled over units sold last year Acreage prices flat but inventories are low.

37 Questions?

38 Developer Panel: Movers and Shakers at the Lake Kent Nixon Steve Redford

39 Steve Redford

40 Sierra Bay 32 Unit Condominium Project 4 mm of the Big Niangua

41 The Hamptons 100+ Condominium Project 1 mm of the Grand Glaize

42 Harbor One 12 Unit Lakefront Villa Project 1 mm of the Osage Arm

43 Kent Nixon

44 Towne Harbour

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48 Real Estate Predictions For 2014

49 Our Speakers Today Diana Franklin Steve Snook Jeff Krantz Our Development Panel: Steve Redford Kent Nixon George Bogema & Liz Sweesy

50 So How Did I Do With My Predictions from Last Year? One Prediction was that we would see a 10 % to 12 % increase in the sales of Waterfront Homes and Condominiums for Condominium Sales + 10% Waterfront Homes + 5% C+ On that Prediction

51 2 nd. Prediction: Foreclosures Predicted that Foreclosures from all sales would decrease for 19% in 2012 to 12% to 15% in , Foreclosure Sales represented 14% of all Real Estate Transactions A+ On that Prediction.

52 Predictions for 2014 Foreclosures will continue to be a factor in our Real Estate Market but will decline to not more than 10% of our Total Sales. In 2013 we experienced a 16% increase in total Transactions over 2012, I believe that will be difficult to sustain in My prediction is that we will continue to see an increase in transactions of 8% to 10%

53 Mortgage Interest Rates: Still at Historic Low Rates but Increasing to the 4% to 5% Range.

54 Overall for 2014 Our Recovery will Continue at a Slow to Moderate Rate. Commercial will continue its Comeback with Major Developments leading the way. Inventory will continue to decline at a Modest rate and we will start to see some slight increases in property values.

55 What Doesn t Kill You Will Make you Stronger

56 FREC Tried to Confiscate 1000 Lakefront Properties. DNR Closed our Beaches because of Goose Poop. 4 Years of Recession. Government Shutdown

57 Real Estate at the Lake of the Ozarks is on the Road to Recovery

58 Thank You Remember, the 2013 Symposium Information can be found on our Website: