Welcome to the 5 th Annual Real Estate Symposium for The Lake of the Ozarks. October 18 th, 2012 Osage National Golf Resort

Transcription

1 Welcome to the 5 th Annual Real Estate Symposium for The Lake of the Ozarks October 18 th, 2012 Osage National Golf Resort

2 Missouri s 4 th Congressional District Congresswoman Vicky Hartzler

3 The Housing Recovery of 2012 October 18,, 2012 Shaun White Vice President - RE/MAX, LLC

4 Light at the end of the Tunnel

5 Economy The Impact on Housing GDP Gross Domestic Product Consumer Confidence QE3 Interest Rates Unemployment

6 Economy The Impact on Housing 9.2% 9.0% Unemployment 8.8% 8.6% 8.4% 8.2% 8.0% 7.8% 7.6% 7.4% 7.2%

7 What Just Happened? Historic Market No One Was Prepared Foreclosures Not Done Yet Inventory Up and Down Resetting Loans Finally over the Hump

8 What Just Happened?

9 Is This Recovery Real? Home Sales YoY Increases for 15 months Home Prices YoY Increases for 8 months Pending Sales Up 16 months in a row New Homes 103 markets improving Investors A new Breed Foreclosures Down 33% from 2011

10 Is This Recovery Real? 250,000 Foreclosures 200, , ,000 50,000 0

11 What Are the Challenges? Cancelled Transactions Lending and Appraisals Lending 734 FICO and 19% Down Legislation / Regulation Fiscal Cliff Debt Relief Act of 2007 Dodd Frank: QM, QRM, 3% closing cap Inventory

12 12-Month Delinquency Rates

13 What Are the Challenges? Cancelled Transactions Lending and Appraisals Lending 734 FICO and 19% Down Legislation / Regulation Fiscal Cliff Debt Relief Act of 2007 Dodd Frank: QM, QRM, 3% closing cap Inventory

14 Months Supply of Inventory Highest Months Supply 1. New York Philadelphia Trenton Birmingham Milwaukee New Orleans Wilmington Cleveland Hartford San Antonio 7.1 Lowest Months Supply 1. San Francisco Los Angeles Denver Orlando Washington Detroit San Diego Seattle Miami Tampa 3.3 Source: RE/MAX National Housing Report-September 2012

15 Recessions and Home Sales 8,000,000 7,000,000 Recession Years Non-Recession Years 4.6M 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 0 Source: National Association of REALTORS

16 Where Are We Headed? Pending Sales Up 16 months in a row 2012 Existing Sales +9% to 4.64 million 2013 Existing Sales - +8% to 5.02 million 2012 New Sales = 375, New Sales = 506,000 Prices Up 6-9% in % over next 5 years Underwater homes surfacing House Hold Formation 1.12 million average

17 Thank you!

18 Health Care Reform Act Debriefing the 3.8% Tax What s True and What is Not True Mick Bednara,CPA

19 Real Estate at the Lake of the Ozarks Jeff Krantz, Co-Owner and Executive Vice President

20 Real Estate at The Lake The Declining Years Year Transactions Volume $727,321, $641,516, $427,317, $353,094,195

21 The Road to Recovery What s Needed? Steadily increasing transaction numbers Decreasing Inventory Decreasing Foreclosures Increasing Values

22 Real Estate at The Lake Market Stabilizing Years Year Transactions Volume $353,148, $327,959, $330,584, $284,346,785 (through 3 rd Qtr) 11% increase in transactions and 11% increase in volume over same period last year

23 Have you ever asked, or been asked? How s the Market? The most accurate way to answer this question is to dissect the markets within our market. Waterfront Residential Homes Off Water Residential Homes Condominiums

24 Residential Waterfront Market Year # Sales Volume Median Sold Price $ per Sqft $129,415,478 $232,500 $ $139,485,372 $225,000 $101 (+14%) (+7%) (-4%) Waterfront Residential home sales represented 31% of the transactions and nearly 50% of the volume of the overall market in Residential Waterfront Foreclosure Sales $7,867, $6,903,342 (-17%) (-12%)

25 Residential Off-Water Market Year # Sales Volume Median Sold Price $46,582,621 $83, $58,180,081 $96,000 (+8%) (+20%) (+13%) Off-Water home sales represented 32% of the transactions and 21% of the volume of the overall market in Residential Off-Water Foreclosure Sales $12,555,302 represented 39% of Off-Water sales in $12,875,619 represented 31% of Off-Water sales in 2012 (-13%) (+2%)

26 Condominium/Townhome/Villa Market Year # Sales Volume Median Sold Price $64,920,420 $150, $70,004,433 $145,000 (+12%) (+7%) (-3.5%) Condo sales represented 27% of the transactions and 25% of the volume of the overall market in Condominium Foreclosure Sales $3,090,611 represented 39% of Off-Water sales in $4,395,049 represented 31% of Off-Water sales in 2012 (+16%) (+30%)

27 Residential Home and Condominium Sales have accounted for 90% of sales in The majority of these are second home type properties Other Sectors of our market are strong as well: - Farms Sales have increased by 35% over last year. - Waterfront Lot Sales are up 25% over last year.

28 Lake Market Summary Transactions are up 11% MLS New Listings are down 8.5% compared to last year. Accurate pricing = Sold Property Multiple offers are back! Values are in line to start increasing Foreclosures are down across the board This Presentation is Fun Again!!!!

29 Development Panel

30 Development Panel Cary Patterson: City Planner for Osage Beach

31 Jeff Gloss: Dierbergs Store Director

32 Gary Prewitt: Developer of Prewitt s Point and The Shoppe s at Eagles Landing

33 Gary Prewitt: Developer of Prewitt s Point and The Shoppe s at Eagles Landing

34 Development Panel Cary Patterson Jeff Gloss Gary Prewitt

35 Predictions for Real Estate At the Lake of the Ozarks

36 Our Speakers and Program Planners Vicky Hartzler U.S. Congresswoman Gary Pruitt, Jeff Gloss & Cary Patterson Shaun White, Mick Bednara, Jeff Krantz George Bogema & Carri Case

37 What we have learned about the Real Estate Market in 2012 In Most Parts of the Country Real Estate Sales have improved dramatically over Last Year. Time on the Market is being Reduced and Inventory is Shrinking. We are seeing that same trend at the Lake of the Ozarks..

38 Changing Market Condition Declining Market

39 Market Stabilization

40 2012 Market Recovery

41 Nationally Vacation Home Sales Surged in 2011 & 2012 In 2011 Vacation Home Sales Totaled 11% of the market.

42 At the Lake of the Ozarks 2010 Lakefront Home Sales Lakefront Home Sales 506 Represents a 31% increase over 2010.

43 Condominiums, At the Lake of the Ozarks 2010 Condominium Sales Condominium Sales 443 Represents a 27% increase over 2010

44 What does this Mean for Next Year Second Home Buyers are more confident and will Continue to Take Advantage of Market Conditions. Mortgage Money at a Ridiculously Low Rate will Bolster Sales. 10% to 12% Increase in Lake Front and Condominium Properties Next Year.

45 Foreclosures at the Lake of the Ozarks Nationally Foreclosures are Down from Last Year 33%

46 Shadow Inventory Shadow Inventory represents the number of distressed properties in some form of foreclosure or held by banks Not Yet on the Market in the MLS. In July of 2012 there were 2.3 Million Properties considered Shadow Inventory. Many of these to come on the Market in 2013.

47 Short Sales & Mortgage Modifications Major Financial Institutions are doing a better Job with Short Sales & Mortgage Modifications. (By Better I Mean that it is still Lousy. It used to be Horrific.)

48 Foreclosure Predictions 2011 Foreclosures Represented 24% of all Real Estate Sales 2012 Foreclosures Represented 19% of all Real Estate Sales 2013 Foreclosures Declining to 12%-15%

49 There are Reasons to be Optimistic

50 Next Year at the Lake of the Ozarks We Will See Increasing Real Estate Sales for all Property Types in Inventory will Decline Slightly It will still be a Buyer s Market Foreclosures will Decline. The Big Boys will Fuel our Commercial Landscape.

51 2012 Will Be the Best Real Estate Market That we have had in the past 4 Years.

52 No Matter What the Market is, The Lake of the Ozarks is Still the Best Place to Live, Work and Play

53 Thank you for Attending the 5 th Annual Real Estate Symposium You Can Find All of the Presentations