REAL ESTATE AND THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK THROUGH 2013:

Save this PDF as:

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "REAL ESTATE AND THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK THROUGH 2013:"

Transcription

1 1 1 REAL ESTATE AND THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK THROUGH 2013: Coping With A Different Kind Of Housing Recovery A Presentation To The Commercial Real Estate Education Summit Monrovia, California July 13, 2012

2 CALIFORNIA'S JOBS IN LINE WITH THE U.S. AVERAGE Annualized Percent Change In Non-Farm Payrolls From 3 Mos. Ago; Seasonally Adjusted, 3-Mo. Moving Avgs. 4.0% 2 3.5% 3.0% CA 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% U.S. 6/12-1.5% Dec-10 Apr-11 Aug-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 California's job growth converged with the national average in the three months to May, after "spiking" well above the U.S. pace early this year. The good news is that overall job growth has masked private-sector gains nearly a percentage point above the national average, supported by the ripple effect of relatively strong growth in high tech and in other key "export" industries (whose sales and earnings are keyed toward markets outside the state) and by a jump in construction-industry employment to double-digit growth (from admittedly a stilldepressed base). Sources: U.S. Labor Department; California Employment

3 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% CALIFORNIA'S KEY "EXPORT" INDUSTRIES IN THEIR USUAL "LOCOMOTOVE" ROLE FOR STATEWIDE JOB GROWTH Year-Ago Percent Change In Non-Farm Payroll Employment "High Tech" 3 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% "Export" Industries, Ex Hi-Tech* Total Non-Farm 0.0% Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 California's "export" industries--those deriving the bulk of their earnings from sales outside the state--continue to provide their usual "locomotive" role in propelling growth through the early and middle stages of an economic growth cycle The state's close integration with the U.S. and global economies make these industries even more critical catalysts for economic recovery (and, for that matter, recessions). The group's "leavening" effect on overall, statewide activity in this cycle has been apparent since last fall's gradual, but steady acceleration * Aerospace, travel and tourism, motion pictures and sound recording. Source: California Employment Development Department

4 CALIFORNIA'S TECH-LED RECOVERY KEEPS THE BAY AREA OUT IN FRONT OF 4 3.5% Yr-Ago % Change In Non-Farm Payrolls; Three-Month Moving Average Data 2.5% 1.5% 0.5% Bay Area Southern California -0.5% -1.5% Central Valley -2.5% -3.5% -4.5% -5.5% Dec-09 Apr-10 Aug-10 Dec-10 Apr-11 Aug-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Aug-12 California's tech-led recovery has had its greatest impact on the Bay Area, where job growth through May was about a percentage point above those of Southern California and in the Central Valley. Southern California's job growth has been restrained by ongoing declines in government, along with uneven performance by construction, retailing and manufacturing throughout the region. Accelerated growth of Central-Valley employment has been fuelled by agri-business and its ripple effects, along with an easing of the deep slump in construction and government employment. Source: U.S. Department Of Labor

5 50% APARTMENT CONSTRUCTION LIFTED BY THE TILT TOWARD RENTAL HOUSING Ratio, Apartment To Single-Family Housing Starts; 3-Month Moving Averages 5 45% 40% Note: Bars Denote Recession Periods 35% 30% Rolling 20-Yr. Average 25% 20% 15% 10% Dec-99 Jun-01 Dec-02 Jun-04 Dec-05 Jun-07 Dec-08 Jun-10 Dec-11 Housing's "upside down" recovery, centered on strong rental demand at the expense of home ownership, was apparent from multi-family construction's above-average share of total housing starts through the spring. However, the balance may be in the early stage sof tilting back toward the single-family sector, now that construction there is rising, again, in response to improved "fundamentals," including increased optimism on the jobs outlook and recent increases in home prices. That's good news for the economy, because of the greater "ripple" effect of rising single-family activity on household wealth, "refinancing" potential and on "big-ticket" consumer spending. Source: U.S. Commerce Department

6 80% 65% 50% 35% 20% 5% -10% -25% -40% -55% -70% -85% "TIGHT" APARTMENT-MARKET CONDITIONS SLOWLY BEGINNING TO EASE Percent Of Owners Reporting Conditions Tightening Less Percent Reporting Conditions Looser Four-Quarter Moving Average Note: Bars Denote Recession Periods '12Q % Jun-00 Dec-01 Jun-03 Dec-04 Jun-06 Dec-07 Jun-09 Dec-10 Jun-12 Apartment-market vacancies still remain low. Like building sales and financing, however, still-favorable conditions are beginning to "soften" across the board, as home-buying in the single-family sector slowly gets back on its feet. Recent easing has been most noticeable in building transactions and, to a lesser extent, in the availability of equity financing. By contrast, those reporting an improvement in borrowing conditions remains elevated. Source: National Multi Housing Council

7 2.3 AN IMPROVEMENT IN HOUSING'S UNDERLYING NEW SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE Housing Starts And Household Formations In Millions Month Change In Households 3/ Rolling 12-Month Average Annual Rate Of Single- Family Housing Starts -0.5 Dec-06 Sep-07 Jun-08 Mar-09 Dec-09 Sep-10 Jun-11 Mar-12 Net increases in housing demand are out-pacing net new supply of single-family homes, now that household formations are staging a bounce more typical of the early stages of an economic recovery. By this year's first quarter, the twelve-month change in the number of households (the economic unit driving demand for homes and most other consumer spending) was rising at quadruple the rate of singlefamily housing starts. The more favorable supply-demand balance will have only a limited impact on bulging (actual and shadow) inventories of unsold homes. However, it is one of several factors setting the stage for the sector's slow turn toward recovery this year Source: U.S. Commerce Department

8 115 THE HOUSING SLUMP LEAVES THE COST OF OWNING UNUSUALLY CHEAP VS. RENTING Ratio, Mortgage Payment On The Median-Priced Home To Rental Costs; 12/89= Avg., = Dec-89 Dec-92 Dec-95 Dec-98 Dec-01 Dec-04 Dec-07 Dec-10 A combination of falling home prices, relatively low mortgage rates and ongoing rent increases have produced a dramatic swing in relative housing costs. The cost of owning a home, relative to the cost of renting, has gone from a twenty-one year high to its lowest level in at least the last thirty years. Sources: U.S. Labor Department; National Association Of Realtors

9 9% SINGLE-FAMILY HOUSING'S LONG ROAD BACK TO RECOVERY Year-Ago Percent Change 25% 9 7% 5% New & Existing Single-Family Home Sales 20% 15% 3% 10% 1% 5% 0% -1% -3% Median Home Re-Sale Price (Right Scale) -5% -10% -5% -15% -7% Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 What strength the economy has been able to muster during this year's growth slowdown has centered increasingly on the hard-pressed housing sector, now enjoying self-sustaining, double-digit increases in new and existing home sales and broad-based increases in the high single digits. Rising home values and sales are important both because of housing's sizable ripple effect on other sectors of the economy and, as the single most important asset class in the household balance sheet, because of its lift to household wealth and spending potential. Sources: National Home Builders' Association Of Realtors -20%

10 CALIFORNIA HOME PRICES "BOTTOMING OUT" ALONG WITH THOSE IN THE REST OF THE U.S. Annualized Percent Change From Three Months Ago; Seasonally Adjusted Data 10% 10 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% California 3- Metro* Average 20 U.S.-Metro Average -8% L.A. Area -10% -12% Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 California has been on the leading edge of the nation's home-price recovery, rebounding from a relatively deep slump and led by incresaes in Bay Area home values. Southern California home-price increases also have been running ahead of the national average, though by a more modest margin, sharing in the lift that the housing recovery is bringing to household wealth and spending, including on homes themselves. * L.A., San Diego, San Francisco Bay Area Source: Case-Shiller Inc., Standard & Poors, Inc.

11 11 THE ECONOMY S POINTS OF LIGHT 11 Rising Home Sales And Prices Falling Gasoline Prices Europe And The Return Of Risk On Investing Wild Cards --Fresh Monetary Stimulus From The Federal Reserve --A Revival Of Emerging-Market Growth?

12 12 HEAD WINDS TO MORE THAN A MODEST, SECOND-HALF GROWTH RECOVERY Reduced Pent-Up Demand In A Maturing Growth Cycle 12 Cost-Driven Earnings Growth Restraining Wage And Job Gains Pre-Election Policy Uncertainties Post-Election Debt-Ceiling Debate, Looming Fiscal Cliff Fall-Out From Added European Debt Crises --Saving-Rate Vulnerability To A Struggling Stock Market; Credit Freeze II?

13 A LESS STABLE BACKDROP FOR INTEREST RATES IN THE SECOND HALF OF 2012? Interest Rates Artificially Low Flight Capital s Ebb And Flow Heightened Policy Uncertainties In The U.S. Quantitative Easing s Unintended Consequences

14 14 HEAD WINDS AGAINST A QUICK RETURN TO MORE SATISFACTORY ECONOMIC GROWTH 14 A Slow Recovery In Bank Lending And In Housing The Pendulum Swings Toward Higher Taxes And Spending Restraint Global Competition s Effect On Pricing Power, Hiring And Wage Increases A Labor-Market Mismatch

California Housing Market Update. Monthly Sales and Price Statistics December 2018

California Housing Market Update. Monthly Sales and Price Statistics December 2018 California Housing Market Update Monthly Sales and Price Statistics December 2018 Sales Reached the Lowest Level since Jan 2015 California, December 2018 Sales: 372,260 Units, -5.2% YTD, -11.6% YTY 700,000

More information

Real gross domestic product California vs. United States

Real gross domestic product California vs. United States Real gross domestic product California vs. United States Percent change, year ago 6 4 U.S. California 2 0-2 -4-6 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

More information

California Housing Market Update. Monthly Sales and Price Statistics November 2018

California Housing Market Update. Monthly Sales and Price Statistics November 2018 California Housing Market Update Monthly Sales and Price Statistics November 2018 Home Sales: Largest Decline Since 2014 California, November 2018 Sales: 381,400 Units, -4.6% YTD, -13.4% YTY 700,000 600,000

More information

2013 San Diego Economic Outlook. 29 th Annual Economic Roundtable Marney Cox Chief Economist San Diego Association of Governments January 25, 2013

2013 San Diego Economic Outlook. 29 th Annual Economic Roundtable Marney Cox Chief Economist San Diego Association of Governments January 25, 2013 213 San Diego Economic Outlook 29 th Annual Economic Roundtable Marney Cox Chief Economist San Diego Association of Governments January 25, 213 US The Problem Slow Economic Growth Gross Domestic Product

More information

California Housing Market Update. Monthly Sales and Price Statistics August 2018

California Housing Market Update. Monthly Sales and Price Statistics August 2018 California Housing Market Update Monthly Sales and Price Statistics August 2018 Sales Declined for the 4 th Consecutive Month California, August 2018 Sales: 399,600 Units, -2.1% YTD, -6.6% YTY 700,000

More information

California Housing Market Update. Monthly Sales and Price Statistics October 2018

California Housing Market Update. Monthly Sales and Price Statistics October 2018 California Housing Market Update Monthly Sales and Price Statistics October 2018 Sales Had the 2 nd Largest Drop in the Last 6 Months California, October 2018 Sales: 397,060 Units, -3.7% YTD, -7.9% YTY

More information

California Housing Market Update. Monthly Sales and Price Statistics September 2018

California Housing Market Update. Monthly Sales and Price Statistics September 2018 California Housing Market Update Monthly Sales and Price Statistics September 2018 Sales Had the Largest Decline since March 2014 California, September 2018 Sales: 382,550 Units, -3.3% YTD, -12.4% YTY

More information

Housing Price Forecasts. Illinois and Chicago PMSA, October 2014

Housing Price Forecasts. Illinois and Chicago PMSA, October 2014 Housing Price Forecasts Illinois and Chicago PMSA, October 2014 Presented To Illinois Association of Realtors From R E A L Regional Economics Applications Laboratory, Institute of Government and Public

More information

INLAND EMPIRE REGIONAL INTELLIGENCE REPORT

INLAND EMPIRE REGIONAL INTELLIGENCE REPORT INLAND EMPIRE REGIONAL INTELLIGENCE REPORT June 2016 EMPLOYMENT After a slow start to 2016, the Inland Empire s labor market returned to form, in recent job figures. Seasonally adjusted nonfarm employment

More information

Economic and Housing Market Outlook ( ) October 31, Contra Costa AOR

Economic and Housing Market Outlook ( ) October 31, Contra Costa AOR Economic and Housing Market Outlook (2012 2013) Contra Costa AOR October 31, 2012 Oscar Wei Senior Research Analyst California Association of REALTORS Overview US and California Economies California Housing

More information

Western Economic Developments

Western Economic Developments IN THIS ISSUE F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F S A N F R A N C I S C O Western Economic Developments Office market slumps, housing demand remains strong in District Figure, panel B: Commercial office

More information

Economic Highlights. Payroll Employment Growth by State 1. Durable Goods 2. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index 3

Economic Highlights. Payroll Employment Growth by State 1. Durable Goods 2. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index 3 August 26, 2009 Economic Highlights Southeastern Employment Payroll Employment Growth by State 1 Manufacturing Durable Goods 2 Consumer Spending The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index 3 Real Estate

More information

California Housing Market Update. Monthly Sales and Price Statistics May 2018

California Housing Market Update. Monthly Sales and Price Statistics May 2018 California Housing Market Update Monthly Sales and Price Statistics May 2018 Sales Lost Momentum as Mortgage Rates Continued to Climb California, May 2018 Sales: 409,270 Units, +0.3% YTD, -4.6% YTY 700,000

More information

Housing Price Forecasts. Illinois and Chicago PMSA, December 2015

Housing Price Forecasts. Illinois and Chicago PMSA, December 2015 Housing Price Forecasts Illinois and Chicago PMSA, December 2015 Presented To Illinois Association of Realtors From R E A L Regional Economics Applications Laboratory, Institute of Government and Public

More information

State of the Nation s Housing 2008: A Preview

State of the Nation s Housing 2008: A Preview State of the Nation s Housing 28: A Preview Eric S. Belsky Remodeling Futures Conference April 15, 28 www.jchs.harvard.edu The Housing Market Has Suffered Steep Declines Percent Change Median Existing

More information

} Construction jobs have

} Construction jobs have Texas Housing Market Finally Building a Solid Recovery By D Ann Petersen } Construction jobs have contributed to total employment consistently beginning this year, making construction the last of the major

More information

Housing Bulletin Monthly Report

Housing Bulletin Monthly Report October 21 1 Housing Bulletin Monthly Report Housing Starts show Slight improvement in September CANADA Housing Starts 2, 15, 1, 5, Sep 8 Oct 8 Nov 8 Dec 8 Preliminary Housing Starts in Alberta and Canada

More information

2019 Housing Market Forecast. Palos Verdes Peninsula AOR January 8, 2019 Jordan G. Levine Senior Economist

2019 Housing Market Forecast. Palos Verdes Peninsula AOR January 8, 2019 Jordan G. Levine Senior Economist 2019 Housing Market Forecast Palos Verdes Peninsula AOR January 8, 2019 Jordan G. Levine Senior Economist Overview Good News: Economic fundamentals solid Homeownership still the dream Rates might not go

More information

Housing Price Forecasts. Illinois and Chicago PMSA, April 2018

Housing Price Forecasts. Illinois and Chicago PMSA, April 2018 Housing Price Forecasts Illinois and Chicago PMSA, April 2018 Presented To Illinois Realtors From R E A L Regional Economics Applications Laboratory, Institute of Government and Public Affairs University

More information

MARKET STRATEGY VIEWPOINT U.S. Housing Decelerating

MARKET STRATEGY VIEWPOINT U.S. Housing Decelerating Jan-01 Oct-01 Jul-02 Apr-03 Jan-0 Oct-0 Jul-05 Apr-0 Jan-07 Oct-07 Jul-08 Apr-09 Jan-10 Oct-10 Jul-11 Apr-12 Jan-13 Oct-13 Jul-1 Apr-15 Jan-1 Oct-1 Jul-17 Apr-18 U.S. Housing Decelerating August 27, 2018

More information

ECONOMIC CURRENTS. Vol. 3, Issue 1. THE SOUTH FLORIDA ECONOMIC QUARTERLY Introduction

ECONOMIC CURRENTS. Vol. 3, Issue 1. THE SOUTH FLORIDA ECONOMIC QUARTERLY Introduction ECONOMIC CURRENTS THE SOUTH FLORIDA ECONOMIC QUARTERLY Introduction Economic Currents provides an overview of the South Florida regional economy. The report contains current employment, economic and real

More information

CALIFORNIA ECONOMIC & MARKET OUTLOOK. October 29,2014 Contra Costa Association of REALTORS Leslie Appleton Young, Chief Economist

CALIFORNIA ECONOMIC & MARKET OUTLOOK. October 29,2014 Contra Costa Association of REALTORS Leslie Appleton Young, Chief Economist 2014 2015 CALIFORNIA ECONOMIC & MARKET OUTLOOK October 29,2014 Contra Costa Association of REALTORS Leslie Appleton Young, Chief Economist OVERVIEW Economic Outlook California Housing Market Outlook Housing

More information

Housing Price Forecasts. Illinois and Chicago PMSA, June 2012

Housing Price Forecasts. Illinois and Chicago PMSA, June 2012 Housing Price Forecasts Illinois and Chicago PMSA, June 2012 Presented To Illinois Association of REALTORS From R E A L Regional Economics Applications Laboratory, Institute of Government and Public Affairs

More information

Housing Price Forecasts. Illinois and Chicago PMSA, March 2018

Housing Price Forecasts. Illinois and Chicago PMSA, March 2018 Housing Price Forecasts Illinois and Chicago PMSA, March 2018 Presented To Illinois Realtors From R E A L Regional Economics Applications Laboratory, Institute of Government and Public Affairs University

More information

TEXAS HOUSING INSIGHT

TEXAS HOUSING INSIGHT TEXAS HOUSING INSIGHT JAMES P. GAINES CHIEF ECONOMIST WAYNE DAY RESEARCH ASSOCIATE LUIS B. TORRES RESEARCH ECONOMIST TECHNICAL REPORT 2 1 2 0 OCTOBER 2016 TR Contents About this Report... 3 August 2016

More information

Housing Price Forecasts. Illinois and Chicago PMSA, May 2018

Housing Price Forecasts. Illinois and Chicago PMSA, May 2018 Housing Price Forecasts Illinois and Chicago PMSA, May 2018 Presented To Illinois Realtors From R E A L Regional Economics Applications Laboratory, Institute of Government and Public Affairs University

More information

Released: June Commentary 2. The Numbers That Drive Real Estate 3. Recent Government Action 9. Topics for Home Buyers, Sellers, and Owners 11

Released: June Commentary 2. The Numbers That Drive Real Estate 3. Recent Government Action 9. Topics for Home Buyers, Sellers, and Owners 11 Released: June 2011 Commentary 2 The Numbers That Drive Real Estate 3 Recent Government Action 9 Topics for Home Buyers, Sellers, and Owners 11 Brought to you by: KW Research Commentary The U.S. housing

More information

Housing Price Forecasts. Illinois and Chicago PMSA, January 2019

Housing Price Forecasts. Illinois and Chicago PMSA, January 2019 Housing Price Forecasts Illinois and Chicago PMSA, January 2019 Presented To Illinois Realtors From R E A L Regional Economics Applications Laboratory, Institute of Government and Public Affairs University

More information

INLAND EMPIRE REGIONAL INTELLIGENCE REPORT. School of Business. April 2018

INLAND EMPIRE REGIONAL INTELLIGENCE REPORT. School of Business. April 2018 INLAND EMPIRE REGIONAL INTELLIGENCE REPORT April 2018 Key economic indicators suggest that the Inland Empire s economy will continue to expand throughout the rest of 2018, building upon its recent growth.

More information

2013 Housing Market Forecast. SILVAR: Los Gatos/Saratoga District October 10, 2012 Leslie Appleton-Young, Vice President & Chief Economist

2013 Housing Market Forecast. SILVAR: Los Gatos/Saratoga District October 10, 2012 Leslie Appleton-Young, Vice President & Chief Economist 2013 Housing Market Forecast SILVAR: Los Gatos/Saratoga District October 10, 2012 Leslie Appleton-Young, Vice President & Chief Economist What we saw from the roof.. C.A.R. NAR THE ECONOMY Recent Housing

More information

Inner Perth Residential Market Report

Inner Perth Residential Market Report Inner Perth Residential Market Report MARCH QUARTER 2014 Inner Perth Residential Market Market Highlights While Western Australia will experience slowed short term growth as the state transitions from

More information

OBSERVATION. TD Economics IS THE AMERICAN HOUSING REBOUND SUSTAINABLE?

OBSERVATION. TD Economics IS THE AMERICAN HOUSING REBOUND SUSTAINABLE? OBSERVATION TD Economics IS THE AMERICAN HOUSING REBOUND SUSTAINABLE? Highlights 2012 was a very good year for the U.S. housing market. Home prices were up almost 8% and housing starts by close to 30%.

More information

California Housing Market Update. Monthly Sales and Price Statistics January 2018

California Housing Market Update. Monthly Sales and Price Statistics January 2018 California Housing Market Update Monthly Sales and Price Statistics January 2018 Sales Started with a Slight Decrease California, Jan. 2018 Sales: 388,800 Units, -2.9% YTD, -2.9% YTY 700,000 600,000 500,000

More information

Housing Price Forecasts. Illinois and Chicago PMSA, April 2013

Housing Price Forecasts. Illinois and Chicago PMSA, April 2013 Housing Price Forecasts Illinois and Chicago PMSA, April 2013 Presented To Illinois Association of Realtors From R E A L Regional Economics Applications Laboratory, Institute of Government and Public Affairs

More information

OFFICE MARKET ANALYSIS:

OFFICE MARKET ANALYSIS: OFFICE MARKET ANALYSIS: DAVID WEST RMLS Fellow Certificate of Real Estate Development Student Masters of Urban and Regional Planning Candidate While the Portland office market continues the slow recovery

More information

NAB COMMERCIAL PROPERTY SURVEY Q4 2017

NAB COMMERCIAL PROPERTY SURVEY Q4 2017 EMBARGOED UNTIL 11.30 AM WEDNESDAY 21 FEBRUARY 2018 NAB COMMERCIAL PROPERTY SURVEY Q4 2017 Date February 2018 NAB Behavioural & Industry Economics KEY FINDINGS The NAB Commercial Property Index (a measure

More information

Linkages Between Chinese and Indian Economies and American Real Estate Markets

Linkages Between Chinese and Indian Economies and American Real Estate Markets Linkages Between Chinese and Indian Economies and American Real Estate Markets Like everything else, the real estate market is affected by global forces. ANTHONY DOWNS IN THE 2004 presidential campaign,

More information

San Francisco Bay Area to Santa Clara & San Benito Counties Housing and Economic Outlook

San Francisco Bay Area to Santa Clara & San Benito Counties Housing and Economic Outlook San Francisco Bay Area to 019 Santa Clara & San Benito Counties Housing and Economic Outlook Bay Area Economic Forecast Summary Presented by Pacific Union International, Inc. and John Burns Real Estate

More information

Analysis of Current and Forecasted Demand for Housing in North America

Analysis of Current and Forecasted Demand for Housing in North America Analysis of Current and Forecasted Demand for Housing in North America TIMBER MEASUREMENT SOCIETY Central Meeting April 9, 2015 Coeur d Alene, Idaho Delton Alderman Forest Products Marketing Unit Forest

More information

2018 Housing Market Outlook. Central Coast Realty Group Business Symposium February 22, 2018 Oscar Wei Senior Economist

2018 Housing Market Outlook. Central Coast Realty Group Business Symposium February 22, 2018 Oscar Wei Senior Economist 2018 Housing Market Outlook Central Coast Realty Group Business Symposium February 22, 2018 Oscar Wei Senior Economist Overview Economic Update California Housing Market Outlook Regional Housing Market

More information

SE Michigan Residential Real Estate Recovery Are we there yet or is it over?

SE Michigan Residential Real Estate Recovery Are we there yet or is it over? SE Michigan Residential Real Estate Recovery Are we there yet or is it over? Changing View of Residential Transactions Changing View of Residential Transactions 2015 Short Sales 3% Leases Bank 11% Owned

More information

Housing Price Forecasts. Illinois and Chicago PMSA, January 2018

Housing Price Forecasts. Illinois and Chicago PMSA, January 2018 Housing Price Forecasts Illinois and Chicago PMSA, January 2018 Presented To Illinois Realtors From R E A L Regional Economics Applications Laboratory, Institute of Government and Public Affairs University

More information

Chart 1. S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index: U.S. National. % Change - Year to Year NSA, Q1-00=100

Chart 1. S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index: U.S. National. % Change - Year to Year NSA, Q1-00=100 Northern Trust Global Economic Research 5 South LaSalle Chicago, Illinois 3 northerntrust.com Asha G. Bangalore agb3@ntrs.com A Perspective on Home Prices August 7, 8 There has been a significant decline

More information

Housing Price Forecasts. Illinois and Chicago PMSA, March 2016

Housing Price Forecasts. Illinois and Chicago PMSA, March 2016 Housing Price Forecasts Illinois and Chicago PMSA, March 2016 Presented To Illinois Association of Realtors From R E A L Regional Economics Applications Laboratory, Institute of Government and Public Affairs

More information

ANALYSIS OF THE CENTRAL VIRGINIA AREA HOUSING MARKET 1st quarter 2013 By Lisa A. Sturtevant, PhD George Mason University Center for Regional Analysis

ANALYSIS OF THE CENTRAL VIRGINIA AREA HOUSING MARKET 1st quarter 2013 By Lisa A. Sturtevant, PhD George Mason University Center for Regional Analysis ANALYSIS OF THE CENTRAL VIRGINIA AREA HOUSING MARKET 1st quarter By Lisa A. Sturtevant, PhD George Mason University Center for Regional Analysis Economic Overview Key economic factors in the first quarter

More information

Monthly Market Snapshot

Monthly Market Snapshot SEPTEMBER 2018 Vacancy continues to fall. Nearing the end of the third quarter, the vacancy rate dropped 10 basis points to 6.4%, compared to this time last month at 6.5%. Occupancy of the 1.1 million

More information

Rapid recovery from the Great Recession, buoyed

Rapid recovery from the Great Recession, buoyed Game of Homes The Supply-Demand Struggle Laila Assanie, Sarah Greer, and Luis B. Torres October 4, 2016 Publication 2143 Rapid recovery from the Great Recession, buoyed by the shale oil boom, has fueled

More information

Housing Bulletin Monthly Report

Housing Bulletin Monthly Report January 21 1 Housing Bulletin Monthly Report Most new homes built in second half of 29 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Dec 7 Jan 8 Feb 8 mar 8 apr 8 Alberta s 29 housing starts increased 72.8 per cent over 28, suggesting

More information

DETACHED MULTI-UNIT APPROVALS

DETACHED MULTI-UNIT APPROVALS HIA New Home Sales DETACHED MULTI-UNIT APPROVALS SALES MULTI-UNIT DETACHED A monthly update on the sales of new homes September 214 MULTI-UNIT SALES REACH New Cyclical Peak The HIA New Home Sales Report

More information

HOUSING OUTLOOK MID-YEAR 2013

HOUSING OUTLOOK MID-YEAR 2013 DELTA ASSOCIATES WASHINGTON AREA HOUSING OUTLOOK MID-YEAR 213 MARKET INDICATORS Washington Metro Area At 2 nd Quarter 213 Figure 1 Q2 AVG. SALES PRICE CHANGE VS. Q1 213 *Sales pace at June 213. Pace is

More information

2018 Real Estate Forecast Breakfast. Real Estate Market Update

2018 Real Estate Forecast Breakfast. Real Estate Market Update 2018 Real Estate Forecast Breakfast Central Oregon Association of REALTORS Real Estate Market Update Paul C. Bishop, PhD, CBE Vice President, Research NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS February 22, 2018

More information

TEXAS HOUSING INSIGHT

TEXAS HOUSING INSIGHT TEXAS HOUSING INSIGHT JAMES P. GAINES CHIEF ECONOMIST WESLEY MILLER RESEARCH ASSISTANT BAILEY CUADRA RESEARCH ASSISTANT LUIS B. TORRES RESEARCH ECONOMIST TECHNICAL REPORT 2 1 2 0 OCTOBER 2017 TR Contents

More information

Monthly Indicators % % - 3.5%

Monthly Indicators % % - 3.5% Monthly Indicators 2017 New Listings were up 6.3 percent for the category but decreased 33.1 percent for the category. Pending Sales increased 5.0 percent for but decreased 1.3 percent for. The Median

More information

FY General Revenue Forecast Presentation

FY General Revenue Forecast Presentation FY 2015-2019 General Revenue Forecast Presentation Steven A. Solomon Director of Finance February 18, 2014 Overview Current Economic Outlook National State Local FY 2014 2nd Quarter Revenue Update Five

More information

Sonoma County Business Barometer Q1 CY 2007

Sonoma County Business Barometer Q1 CY 2007 EDB Sonoma County Economic Development Board economy Sonoma County Business Barometer Q1 CY 2007 Economic Development Board 401 College Avenue Suite D Santa Rosa CA 95401 707.565.7170 EDB Sonoma County

More information

INVESTOR PRESENTATION MAY 2013

INVESTOR PRESENTATION MAY 2013 INVESTOR PRESENTATION MAY 2013 Forward-Looking Statements This presentation includes forward-looking statements. These statements are subject to a number of risks, uncertainties and other factors that

More information

Housing Price Forecasts. Illinois and Chicago PMSA, March 2019

Housing Price Forecasts. Illinois and Chicago PMSA, March 2019 Housing Price Forecasts Illinois and Chicago PMSA, March 2019 Presented To Illinois Realtors From R E A L Regional Economics Applications Laboratory, Institute of Government and Public Affairs University

More information

DETACHED MULTI-UNIT APPROVALS

DETACHED MULTI-UNIT APPROVALS HIA New Home Sales DETACHED MULTI-UNIT APPROVALS SALES MULTI-UNIT DETACHED A monthly update on the sales of new homes December 217 TAX BURDEN TAKES TOLL ON New Home Sales during 217 Sales still post modest

More information

El Paso Area Local Market Report, First Quarter 2017

El Paso Area Local Market Report, First Quarter 2017 Area Local Market Report, First Quarter 2017 Today's Market $155,000 Median Price (Red Line) and One-year Price Growth 10% $150,000 8% $145,000 $140,000 $135,000 $130,000 $125,000 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% $120,000-6%

More information

Housing Bulletin Monthly Report

Housing Bulletin Monthly Report February 211 1 Housing Bulletin Monthly Report Alberta s preliminary housing starts declined in January 211 Canada Housing Starts 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, DEC 8 JAN 9 Preliminary Housing Starts in Alberta* and

More information

Economic Spotlight September 1, 2009

Economic Spotlight September 1, 2009 Economic Spotlight September 1, 29 Update on Alberta s Housing Market Summary Alberta s housing market is beginning to show signs of recovery. Housing starts have rebounded from March lows and activity

More information

Housing s Impact on Local Government Finance

Housing s Impact on Local Government Finance Housing s Impact on Local Government Finance Meeting of the Virginia Government Finance Officers Association Virginia Beach, Virginia June 9, 2011 Virginia Housing Development Authority Impact of Home

More information

Asking Price Index Released 12/02/16 February 2016

Asking Price Index Released 12/02/16 February 2016 EMBARGOED UNTIL 12/02/16 HOME.CO UK ASKING PRICE INDEX February 2016 Released: 12/02/2016 1 of 6 Asking Price Index Released 12/02/16 February 2016 England Prices Take a Spring Leap Headlines England prices

More information

Commercial Real Estate Outlook

Commercial Real Estate Outlook Commercial Real Estate Outlook By Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Chief Economist, National Association of REALTORS Presentation at Annual Conference of National Association of REALTORS Chicago, IL November 3, 2017

More information

Released: September 2011

Released: September 2011 Released: September 2011 Commentary 2 The Numbers That Drive Real Estate 3 Special Report 9 Brought to you by: KW Research Commentary The national housing market remains firmly planted in balanced territory.

More information

MULTIFAMILY 2012 MULTI-FAMILY HAMPTON ROADS MARKET REVIEW. Author. Data Analysis. Financial Support. Disclosure. Charles Dalton.

MULTIFAMILY 2012 MULTI-FAMILY HAMPTON ROADS MARKET REVIEW. Author. Data Analysis. Financial Support. Disclosure. Charles Dalton. HAMPTON ROADS MARKET REVIEW MULTIFAMILY Author Data Analysis Financial Support Disclosure Charles Dalton Real Data The E. V. Williams Center for Real Estate and Economic Development (CREED) functions and

More information

Metropolitan Area Statistics

Metropolitan Area Statistics Metropolitan Area Statistics Apartment Completions 1Q 2011 1Q 2012 % Chg Atlanta - - n/a Boston 133 39-71% Chicago - 20 n/a Cleveland - - n/a Columbus - 272 n/a Dallas-Ft. Worth 604 1,059 75% Denver 328

More information

QUARTERLY ECONOMIC REPORT. July 2018 QUARTERLY ECONOMIC REPORT 1 INLAND EMPIRE. In July 2018, there is a great deal of change in the forces impacting

QUARTERLY ECONOMIC REPORT. July 2018 QUARTERLY ECONOMIC REPORT 1 INLAND EMPIRE. In July 2018, there is a great deal of change in the forces impacting INLAND EMPIRE QUARTERLY ECONOMIC REPORT RIVERSIDE & SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES, CALIFORNIA VOL. 30 NO. 3 JULY 2018 $5.00 INLAND EMPIRE QUARTERLY ECONOMIC REPORT MID-YEAR LOOK AT INLAND EMPIRE ECONOMIC DRIVERS

More information

Beaumont-Port Arthur Area Local Market Report, First Quarter 2017

Beaumont-Port Arthur Area Local Market Report, First Quarter 2017 -Port Arthur Area Local Market Report, First Quarter 2017 Today's Market $180,000 Median Price (Red Line) and One-year Price Growth 20% $160,000 $140,000 $120,000 15% 10% $100,000 5% $80,000 0% $60,000

More information

Housing Price Forecasts. Illinois and Chicago PMSA, August 2017

Housing Price Forecasts. Illinois and Chicago PMSA, August 2017 Housing Price Forecasts Illinois and Chicago PMSA, August 2017 Presented To Illinois Realtors From R E A L Regional Economics Applications Laboratory, Institute of Government and Public Affairs University

More information

Remodeling Trends and Outlook

Remodeling Trends and Outlook Remodeling Trends and Outlook Kermit Baker Remodeling Futures Conference October 16, 2007 www.jchs.harvard.edu Recent Remodeling Trends Growth in remodeling spending began to ease in Q3-2006. After Strong

More information

HOULIHAN LAWRENCE COMMERCIAL GROUP

HOULIHAN LAWRENCE COMMERCIAL GROUP HOULIHAN LAWRENCE COMMERCIAL GROUP TH QUARTER EXECUTIVE SUMMARY FOURTH QUARTER Dear Clients, With behind us and the new year in full swing, we can now reflect, summarize and gain insight from the past

More information

Housing Price Forecasts. Illinois and Chicago PMSA, July 2016

Housing Price Forecasts. Illinois and Chicago PMSA, July 2016 Housing Price Forecasts Illinois and Chicago PMSA, July 2016 Presented To Illinois Association of Realtors From R E A L Regional Economics Applications Laboratory, Institute of Government and Public Affairs

More information

1200 Premier Drive, Suite 140 Chattanooga, TN Each office is independently owned and operated.

1200 Premier Drive, Suite 140 Chattanooga, TN Each office is independently owned and operated. THIS MONTH IN REAL ESTATE K im aulston R REALTOR 1200 Premier Drive, Suite 140 Chattanooga, TN 37421 Each office is independently owned and operated. Cell: 423-316-4022 Office: 423-664-1600 Email: kcraulston@gmail.com

More information

This Month in Real Estate

This Month in Real Estate Keller Williams Research This Month in Real Estate Released: September 14, 2009 Commentary. The Numbers That Drive Real Estate Recent Government Action. Research for Buyers and Sellers. 2 4 10 14 1 Green

More information

Foreclosures and Bank-Owned Homes: More Challenges Ahead

Foreclosures and Bank-Owned Homes: More Challenges Ahead Foreclosures and Bank-Owned Homes: More Challenges Ahead Virginia Association of Counties Annual Meeting November 10, 2008 Virginia Housing Development Authority 1 What is the size and extent of Virginia

More information

For the Reno MSA employment has historically been based largely on construction and the leisure and hospitality industry. The construction industry

For the Reno MSA employment has historically been based largely on construction and the leisure and hospitality industry. The construction industry For the Reno MSA employment has historically been based largely on construction and the leisure and hospitality industry. The construction industry has lost almost 15,000 construction jobs since 2006,

More information

Housing Price Forecasts. Illinois and Chicago PMSA, March 2017

Housing Price Forecasts. Illinois and Chicago PMSA, March 2017 Housing Price Forecasts Illinois and Chicago PMSA, March 2017 Presented To Illinois Realtors From R E A L Regional Economics Applications Laboratory, Institute of Government and Public Affairs University

More information

HOUSING MARKETS CONSTRUCTION GAINING MOMENTUM JOINT CENTER FOR HOUSING STUDIES OF HARVARD UNIVERSITY

HOUSING MARKETS CONSTRUCTION GAINING MOMENTUM JOINT CENTER FOR HOUSING STUDIES OF HARVARD UNIVERSITY 2 HOUSING MARKETS After a mixed year in 214, the national housing recovery gained traction in 215. Residential construction continued to climb as single-family starts revived. Sales of both new and existing

More information

Austin-Round Rock Area Local Market Report, Fourth Quarter 2017

Austin-Round Rock Area Local Market Report, Fourth Quarter 2017 -Round Rock Area Local Market Report, Fourth Quarter 2017 Today's Market $350,000 Median Price (Red Line) and One-year Price Growth 12% $300,000 $250,000 10% 8% 6% $200,000 4% $150,000 2% $100,000 $50,000

More information

Housing market report

Housing market report Capital city market report Prepared August Dr Andrew Wilson, Senior Economist Australian Property Monitors Buyer momentum rises through mid-winter housing markets National overview Buyer and seller momentum

More information

Santa Clara County Real Estate Market Overview Dynamics

Santa Clara County Real Estate Market Overview Dynamics Santa Clara County Real Estate Market Overview Dynamics Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers should be considered approximate. Jan-90 Sep-90 May-91

More information

Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land Area Local Market Report, First Quarter Median Price (Red Line) and One-year Price Growth 2016 Q1. Local Price Trends

Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land Area Local Market Report, First Quarter Median Price (Red Line) and One-year Price Growth 2016 Q1. Local Price Trends -Baytown-Sugar Land Area Local Market Report, First Quarter 2016 Today's Market $250,000 Median Price (Red Line) and One-year Price Growth 15% $200,000 10% $150,000 5% $100,000 0% $50,000-5% $0 2007 2008

More information

This Month in Real Estate

This Month in Real Estate Keller Williams Research This Month in Real Estate Released: June 11, 2009 Commentary. The Numbers That Drive Real Estate Recent Government Action. Research for Buyers and Sellers. 2 4 10 13 1 Green Shoots

More information

Minneapolis St. Paul Residential Real Estate Index

Minneapolis St. Paul Residential Real Estate Index University of St. Thomas Minneapolis St. Paul Residential Real Estate Index Welcome to the latest edition of the UST Minneapolis St. Paul Residential Real Estate Index. The University of St Thomas Residential

More information

2017 RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE MARKET REPORT

2017 RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE MARKET REPORT 2017 RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE MARKET REPORT Published January 26, 2018 Our market reports have been focused on the effects of low inventory on our housing market and for good reason. December 2017 marked

More information

TEXAS HOUSING INSIGHT

TEXAS HOUSING INSIGHT TEXAS HOUSING INSIGHT JAMES P. GAINES CHIEF ECONOMIST WESLEY MILLER RESEARCH ASSOCIATE PAIGE WOODSON RESEARCH INTERN LUIS B. TORRES RESEARCH ECONOMIST 2 1 2 0 ANNUAL SUMMARY TECHNICAL REPORT Annual Summary...

More information

Phoenix, Central and Northern Arizona

Phoenix, Central and Northern Arizona Phoenix, Central and Northern Arizona End of Year Housing Report 1-8-354-5664 LongRealty.com 217 End of Year Housing Report SALES & INVENTORY Housing market trends For the overall real estate market in

More information

Aug. Aug 2018 ust 2018

Aug. Aug 2018 ust 2018 August 18 MONTHLY STATISTICS PACKAGE City of Calgary Unemployment rate slows housing market recovery 18 City of Calgary, September, 18 Easing sales, gains in new listings and elevated inventory levels

More information

Qatar Real Estate Market Overview. Cityscape, March 2017

Qatar Real Estate Market Overview. Cityscape, March 2017 Qatar Real Estate Market Overview Cityscape, March 217 Qatar Real Estate Market Overview Introduction Overview The fall in oil prices, which started in 214, started to have an impact the real estate market

More information

With last month's gain, sales are now up 4.5% from May 2015 and are at their highest annual pace since February 2007.

With last month's gain, sales are now up 4.5% from May 2015 and are at their highest annual pace since February 2007. JULY 2016 With last month's gain, sales are now up 4.5% from May 2015 and are at their highest annual pace since February 2007. - Lawrence Yun NAR s Chief Economist Now in its seventh year, the US economic

More information

By several measures, homebuilding made a comeback in 2012 (Figure 6). After falling another 8.6 percent in 2011, single-family

By several measures, homebuilding made a comeback in 2012 (Figure 6). After falling another 8.6 percent in 2011, single-family 2 Housing Markets With sales picking up, low inventories of both new and existing homes helped to firm prices and spur new single-family construction in 212. Multifamily markets posted another strong year,

More information

Quarterly Review The Australian Residential Property Market and Economy

Quarterly Review The Australian Residential Property Market and Economy Quarterly Review The Australian Residential Property Released January 2018 Contents Introduction 3 Housing Market 4 Mortgage Lending 11 Housing Supply 17 Demographic Overview 20 Household Finances 22 National

More information

2008 Midyear Housing Forecast

2008 Midyear Housing Forecast 2008 Midyear Housing Forecast June 25, 2008 By Alan N. Nevin Chief Economist California Building Industry Association Executive Summary: Housing Production Falling Short of Earlier Forecasts Due to the

More information

REAL ESTATE MARKET REVIEW

REAL ESTATE MARKET REVIEW MULTIFAMILY 2014 HAMPTON ROADS REAL ESTATE MARKET REVIEW Author Charles Dalton Data Analysis Real Data Financial Support The E.V. Williams Center for Real Estate and Economic Development (CREED) functions

More information

Released: October 2011

Released: October 2011 Released: October 2011 Commentary 2 The Numbers That Drive Real Estate 3 Special Report 9 Brought to you by: KW Research Commentary The national housing market remains firmly planted in balanced territory.

More information

LUXURY MARKET REPORT. - March

LUXURY MARKET REPORT. - March LUXURY MARKET REPORT - March 2018 - www.luxuryhomeing.com THIS IS YOUR LUXURY MARKET REPORT MAP OF LUXURY RESIDENTIAL MARKETS Welcome to the Luxury Report, your guide to luxury real estate market data

More information

Abilene Area Local Market Report, First Quarter 2017

Abilene Area Local Market Report, First Quarter 2017 Area Local Market Report, First Quarter 217 Today's Market $18, Median Price (Red Line) and One-year Price Growth 2% $16, $14, 15% $12, $1, 1% $8, $6, 5% $4, $2, % $ 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217-5%

More information

Housing Bulletin Monthly Report

Housing Bulletin Monthly Report August 21 Housing Bulletin Monthly Report 1 C a n a da s P r e li m i n a ry H o u s i n g S ta r t s s l i p i n J u ly Preliminary Housing St arts in Albert a* and Canada* July 28 to July 21 25, Canada

More information

Housing Market Cycles

Housing Market Cycles MEGA AGENT Market Update Gary Keller and Jay Papasan 2 The U.S. Housing Market Keller Williams Realty, Inc. Housing Market Cycles 4 The U.S. Housing Market Housing Market Cycles 5 The U.S. Housing Market

More information