RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT

Transcription

1 Q OFFICE LAS VEGAS NEVADA RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT Recovery Without Job Growth? Despite office employment still trending downwards, Southern Nevada s office market posted positive net absorption in the second quarter of 2012 and saw vacancy again begin to decline, reaching 23.7 percent. By most measures, the office market in Southern Nevada appears to be on the mend, but the lack of meaningful job growth so far this year makes this nascent recovery perplexing. Asking rental rates decreased by $0.01 to $1.90 per square foot (psf) on a Full Service Gross (FSG) basis. Construction remains constrained. MARKET INDICATORS Q2-12 NET ABSORPTION Projected Q3-12 According to the Nevada Department of Employment, Training & Rehabilitation, between May 2011 and May 2012, a net of 1,600 office sector jobs were lost in Southern Nevada. The professional & business services sector, which had been adding jobs in 2011, dropped 1,600 jobs over the past twelve months. The financial activities sector, which includes insurance and real estate, continued its decline, dropping 1,700 jobs over the past twelve months. Even the traditionally bullet-proof health care & social assistance sector has been shaky of late, though comparing May 2012 to May 2011 shows an increase of 1,700 jobs. Unemployment in the Las Vegas-Paradise MSA stood at 11.8 percent as of May 2012, down from 13.6 percent in May Over the same period, total employment in Southern Nevada has increased by 5,900 jobs, the majority in leisure and hospitality and trade, transportation and utilities. RENTAL CLARK COUNTY ECONOMIC DATA Office completions in the first quarter of 2012 consisted of a single 4,500 square foot Class C buildings on Horizon Ridge Parkway in Henderson, keeping new constructions to a minimum at mid-year If completions have been constrained, however, the office pipeline is beginning to fill up, at least by the standards of the past five years. There are currently three Class C, three Class B and two Class A projects in development in Southern Nevada. New developments are primarily located in the Downtown and Henderson submarkets, with one project, the Summerlin Centre Office Development located within the Shoppes at Summerlin Mall, apparently rising from the dead and scheduled to finally complete construction sometime over the next two years. Unemployment Rate (Apr) Visitor Volume (Apr YTD) Gaming Revenue (Apr YTD) 11.6% 12.0% 13.1 MM 12.8 MM $3.21 BB $3.05 BB HISTORICAL AND ASKING S 25.0% 24.0% 23.0% 22.0% $2.20 $2.15 $2.10 $2.05 The Great Recession may have been global, but it looks as though, for Southern Nevada, the recovery is going to local. Taxable Sales (Mar YTD) $7.54 BB $7.16 BB Commercial Occupancy (Q2) 83.8% 83.5% SOURCE: THE CENTER FOR BUSINESS & ECONOMIC RESEARCH, UNLV 21.0% 20.0% 19.0% 18.0% 17.0% 16.0% $2.00 $1.95 $1.90 $1.85 $1.80 $ % 3 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q 2012 $1.70 Vacancy Asking Rental Rate

2 NORTH LAS VEGAS After two quarters of rising vacancy, the office market got back on track in the second quarter of 2012 and saw vacancy decline by 0.4 points to 23.7 percent. Current vacancy remains higher now than during the surge in demand experienced in mid-2011, however, job losses in the office sector suggest that this rally may be short lived. NORTHWEST WEST CENTRAL 15 DOWN TOWN EAST LAS VEGAS 95 The highest vacancy rates by submarket were in the North Las Vegas (29.5 percent), Northwest (26.4 percent), and East Las Vegas (26 percent) submarkets. Downtown continued to boast the market s lowest vacancy rate at 12.7 percent. Vacancy dropped in six of the Valley s submarkets: Airport, Downtown, East Las Vegas, Henderson, North Las Vegas and Southwest, increasing only in the Northwest and West Central submarkets this quarter. SOUTHWEST 215 AIRPORT HENDERSON Class A office eased back this quarter after posting strong net absorption last quarter. Given the weakness in the finance, insurance, real estate and legal firms that make up the tenant base of Class A office, this is not surprising. So far in 2012, though, activity by gaming corporations is making up for the weakness in those other industries. EMPLOYMENT Financial Activities Professional & Business Services Health Care & Social Assistance May 2011 May 2010 Change 38,000 39,700-1,700 99, ,500-1,600 66,800 65,100 +1,700 TOTAL 204, ,300-1,600 Source: Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation. Vacancy declined for both Class B and Class C properties in the second quarter, reversing weak performance posted last quarter. The return of call center operators to Southern Nevada may keep Class B space headed in the right direction, assuming they are able to find spaces that meet their needs. Net absorption was 188,302 square feet this quarter, a significant improvement over last quarter s negative 40,278 square feet of net absorption. After strong net absorption in mid-2011, demand for Southern Nevada office space turned negative in the fourth quarter of 2011 and first quarter of This quarter s positive net absorption is the strongest net absorption the market has seen since the fourth quarter of 2009, but may be short lived considering the continued job losses in the office sector. Class A office has absorbed 53,098 square feet of space so far this year. Class B net absorption rebounded this quarter, with 76,445 square feet for the quarter, but only 14,312 square feet of net absorption year-to-date. Class C space has absorbed 80,614 square feet so far in 2012, all of its positive net absorption being recorded in the second quarter. Most of the net absorption in Southern Nevada so far in 2012 has taken place in the Southwest, Northwest and Henderson submarkets. LEASE AND SALES ACTIVITY LEASE ACTIVITY PROPERTY NAME LEASE DATE LEASE TERM SIZE LEASE TYPE McCarran Center II May months 23,000 $0.99 NNN Class C 2690 Decatur Apr months 22,000 $0.47 NNN Class C Quail Alta Apr months 17,000 $1.30 MG Class C Renaissance Office Park May months 8,000 $0.96 FSG Class C Camino Al Norte Business Park May months 6,000 $0.67 NNN Class C SALES ACTIVITY PROPERTY NAME SALE DATE SALE PRICE SIZE PRICE/ TYPE Spanish Villas Apr 2012 $5,000, ,000 $44 Class C Cambridge Quail Park Apr 2012 $3,045,000 50,000 $61 Class C Rainbow Oasis Plaza May 2012 $1,850,000 39,000 $47 Class C South Pointe May 2012 $3,150,000 21,000 $148 Class C

3 Gross absorption in 2012 has not kept pace with the very strong gross absorption numbers posted in the second and third quarters of 2011, but it remains fairly consistent with the gross absorption numbers we ve seen throughout the Great Recession. In 2012, gross absorption has averaged 1.1 million square feet per quarter, compared to 1.1 million in 2011, 1 million in 2010, 0.9 million in 2009 and 1 million in As overall demand for office space has remained consistent, the difference is now in how much new space is coming onto the market quarter after quarter. In essence, retention of businesses may be the key to jump starting recovery in Southern Nevada s office sector. Of the office deals we have tracked so far in 2012, the most active industries have been financial services, amusement & recreation (which includes gaming and hospitality companies), business services and education & social services. Local companies made up 66 percent of the tenants taking space so far this year and 58 percent of the total office space taken. The fact that this recovery (such as it is) has been largely homegrown goes a long way in explaining why is has been so slow and uneven. Regional companies made up 17 percent of the tenants taking space and 23 percent of the total office space taken. The amount of distressed office space (i.e. office properties that have received a notice of default or are at some stage in the foreclosure process) has dropped by approximately 400,000 square feet between the end of 2011 and mid-year Distressed sales have been fair this year, and the amount of new distressed office space has slowed down tremendously over past years. Distressed office properties are, overall, selling for about 83 percent of non-distressed properties this year. HISTORICAL ABSORPTION VS. COMPLETIONS 5,000,000 4,000,000 The weighted average asking rental rate decreased this quarter to $1.90 per square foot (psf) on a full service gross (FSG) basis. This was a decrease of $0.01 from last quarter, and $0.11 from four quarters ago. Asking rents have been declining since the onset of the Great Recession in 2007/2008. The only large movement in asking rents this quarter, among submarkets or classes, was in North Las Vegas, where the average asking rent increased by $0.11 to $1.65 psf FSG (still among the lowest asking rents in the Valley) and East Las Vegas, where the average asking rent decreased by $0.07 to $1.55 psf FSG. Y-O-Y OFFICE CHANGE Office Y-O-Y Vacancy Change 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% Q101 Q201 Q301 Q401 Q102 Q202 Q302 Q402 Q103 Q203 Q303 Q403 Q104 Q204 Q304 Q404 Q105 Q205 Q305 Q405 Q106 Q206 Q306 Available office sublease space was increasing in the third and fourth quarters of 2011 a distressing sign since increases in sublease space soon translate into increases in directly leasable space. Fortunately, space available for sublease declined in the first quarter of 2012 and has remained fairly stable in the second quarter of 2012, hitting 338,666 square feet at mid-year. This is still higher than one year ago, but at least is once again heading in the right direction. Q406 Q107 Q207 Q307 Q407 Q108 Q208 Q308 Q408 Q109 Q209 Q309 Q409 Q110 Q210 Q310 Q410 1 Q Q Q Q Q Q ,000,000 2,000,000 1,000, ,000,000-2,000, Absorption YTD Completions YTD The amount of office space available for sale on an owner/user basis has decreased by 21,000 square feet since the fourth quarter of 2011, and now stands at 994,000 square feet. The average asking price for owner/ user space this quarter was $108 psf, a decrease of $25 from last year. Owner/user sales are significantly stronger this year than in the last four years. A total of 553,000 square feet traded in the first half of 2012 at an average price of $50. Non-distressed owner/user sales accounted for 82 percent of this space, and sold at an average sales price of $45 per square foot. Distressed owner/user sales sold for an average of $69 per square foot. At least some of this seeming discrepancy can be explained by the OFFICE DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE PROJECT TYPE SUBMARKET SIZE PRE-LEASING COMPLETION Legal Aid Center BTS Class C Downtown 10, % 2012 Horizon Ridge Professional Park Class C Henderson 8,000 0% 2012 Horizon Ridge Professional Park Ph 2 Class C Henderson 13,000 0% 2012/13 Seven Hills Plaza A/B Class B Henderson 68,000 n/a 2012 Seven Hills Plaza C/D Class B Henderson 44,000 n/a 2013 EVAPS Law Office Building Class B Downtown 55,000 n/a 2012/13 Federal Justice Tower Class A Downtown 129, % 2013 Summerlin Centre Office Development Class A Northwest 325,000 0%??? COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL - LAS VEGAS P. 3

4 MARKET COMPARISONS OFFICE MARKET TYPE BLDGS TOTAL INVENTORY DIRECT VACANT DIRECT SUBLEASE SUBLEASE VACANT TOTAL VACANT QUARTER PRIOR QUARTER NET ABSORPTION QTR NET ABSORPTION YTD COMPLETIONS QTR COMPLETIONS YTD UNDER PLANNED WEIGHTED AVG ASKING RENTAL AIRPORT SUBMARKET A 6 605, , % - 0.0% 224, % 38.4% 7,521 20, $2.74 B 43 1,957, , % 15, % 327, % 16.9% (14,607) (25,382) $1.88 C 266 2,937, , % 17, % 789, % 28.3% 38,958 14, $1.59 Total 315 5,501,013 1,308, % 32, % 1,341, % 25.3% 31,872 10, $1.85 DOWNTOWN A 5 807,588 89, % 7, % 96, % 11.2% (6,077) (23,752) ,000 $2.57 B 32 2,273, , % 1, % 310, % 14.2% 11,978 14, ,000 $1.90 C 80 1,094, , % - 0.0% 132, % 13.0% 9,737 2, ,000 $1.54 Total 117 4,175, , % 9, % 540, % 13.3% 15,638 (6,820) ,000 $1.92 EAST LAS VEGAS A 9 1,351, , % 48, % 297, % 25.7% 57,326 33, $2.83 B 19 1,409, , % - 0.0% 498, % 34.5% (17,757) (23,069) $1.20 C 141 2,404, , % 12, % 609, % 25.1% (540) (12,206) $1.31 Total 169 5,166,031 1,343, % 61, % 1,405, % 27.8% 39,029 (1,558) $1.55 HENDERSON A , , % 17, % 305, % 35.5% (26,699) (55,843) $2.57 B 68 2,285, , % 26, % 564, % 25.7% 22,668 49, ,692 44,000 $2.11 C 222 2,148, , % 6, % 427, % 23.4% 81,293 50,903 4,500 13,500-21,620 $1.68 Total 301 5,221,486 1,247, % 50, % 1,298, % 26.2% 77,262 44,086 4,500 13,500 67,692 65,620 $2.07 NORTH LAS VEGAS A n/a - n/a - n/a n/a $- B 8 200,796 73, % - 0.0% 73, % 38.5% 3,697 5, $1.82 C , , % - 0.0% 111, % 25.8% (1,693) (21,442) $1.53 Total , , % - 0.0% 185, % 29.8% 2,004 (15,483) $1.65 NORTHWEST A 21 1,709, , % 7, % 722, % 41.2% (14,648) 38, ,000 $2.12 B 82 2,988, , % 22, % 570, % 21.2% 63,028 81, $2.15 C 281 2,949, , % 16, % 768, % 24.2% (53,830) (14,545) $1.77 Total 384 7,647,419 2,015, % 45, % 2,061, % 26.8% (5,450) 105, ,000 $2.00 SOUTHWEST A 3 397, , % - 0.0% 169, % 44.7% 7,752 53, $2.57 B 70 2,714, , % 71, % 765, % 28.2% 5,837 29, $2.41 C 303 3,298, , % 42, % 681, % 21.8% 38,708 79, $1.85 Total 376 6,410,373 1,501, % 114, % 1,615, % 25.9% 52, , $2.19 WEST CENTRAL A 2 227,624 48, % - 0.0% 48, % 15.5% (13,204) (13,204) $2.03 B 46 1,672, , % - 0.0% 475, % 28.5% 1,601 (117,301) $1.79 C 165 2,663, , % 2, % 651, % 24.0% (12,747) (19,492) $1.56 Total 213 4,564,021 1,172, % 2, % 1,175, % 25.2% (24,350) (149,997) $1.67 MARKET TOTAL A 57 5,886,212 1,783, % 81, % 1,865, % 31.7% 11,971 53, ,000 $2.43 B ,503,035 3,448, % 137, % 3,586, % 23.7% 76,445 14, ,692 99,000 $1.96 C 1,507 17,923,737 4,074, % 96, % 4,170, % 23.8% 99,886 80,614 4,500 13,500-31,620 $1.62 Total 1,932 39,312,984 9,306, % 316, % 9,622, % 24.9% 188, ,024 4,500 13,500 67, ,620 $1.90 QUARTERLY COMPARISON AND TOTALS Q2-12 1,932 39,312,984 9,306, % 316, % 9,622, % 24.9% 188, ,024 4,500 13,500 67, ,620 $1.90 Q1-12 1,931 39,308,484 9,490, % 316, % 9,806, % 24.8% (40,278) (40,278) 9,000 9, ,500 63,190 $1.91 Q4-11 1,929 39,299,484 9,440, % 322, % 9,762, % 24.4% (119,560) 209,462 45, , ,500 8,190 $1.95 Q3-11 1,928 39,253,905 9,275, % 294, % 9,570, % 24.9% 482, , , ,444-26,190 $1.98 Q2-11 1,925 38,941,461 9,446, % 266, % 9,712, % 25.2% 48,637 (153,944) - 120, ,444 26,190 $2.01

5 sale last quarter of the old Southwest Gas facility at 4300 W. Tropicana Avenue, which traded for only $29 psf. Properties available for sale on an investment basis decreased to 710,000 square feet at mid-year 2012 from last year s 1,125,000 square feet. The average asking price for investment sales was $117 psf, a $28 psf decrease from the fourth quarter of 2011, and coupled with the much lower actual sales prices, an indication that office sellers are still probably overvaluing their properties. Investment sales are still lagging this year compared to last, but are stronger than in the other years of the recession. The average sales price of an office investment currently stands at just $58 per square foot. Distressed investment sales amounted to 661,000 square feet at an average sales price of $47 per square foot. Non-distressed sales have sold at an average of $96 per square foot so far in The Great Recession may have been global, but it looks as though, for Southern Nevada, the recovery is going to be local. Office employment, which posted a nice surge in mid-2011, has been hit hard over the past five years (though not as hard as the construction sector). Since the first quarter of 2008, office employment in Southern Nevada has dropped by over 24,000 jobs. As with construction, the main culprit here appears to be the collapse of residential, and to a lesser extent commercial, real estate in the Valley. When the housing market bubble burst, it took thousands of OCCUPANCY VS. OFFICE EMPLOYMENT 207, , , % 78.0% 77.0% jobs with it in the financial, real estate and legal sectors. Unless job gains in the leisure and hospitality sector soon translate into demand for commercial real estate, it 204, % seems unlikely that the Valley will 203, , , % 74.0% 73.0% see significant recovery in the office sector without also seeing recovery in the housing sector. 522 offices in 62 countries on 6 continents United States: 147 Canada: 37 Latin America: 19 Asia Pacific: 201 EMEA: 118 $1.8 billion in USD annual revenue Over 12,300 professionals 1,250 million square feet under management $68 billion USD in total transaction value COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL LAS VEGAS 3960 Howard Hughes Parkway Suite 150 Las Vegas, NV TEL FAX , , ,000 3 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q % 71.0% 70.0% Office Jobs DISTRESSED OFFICE PROPERTIES OWNER/USER SALES ACTIVITY Owner User Space 2012 YTD Space for Sale (sf) 994,000 1,015,000 1,444,000 Average Asking Price/ $108 $133 $171 Space Sold (sf) 553, , ,000 Average Price/ $50 $104 $125 INVESTMENT SALES ACTIVITY Occupancy Rate Product Type 2012 (YTD) Class A 659, , ,000 Class B 1,816,000 1,753,000 1,897,000 Class C 2,309,000 2,735,000 2,834,000 TOTAL 4,784,000 5,186,000 5,408,000 Investment Space 2012 YTD Space for Sale (sf) 710,000 1,125,000 1,504,000 Average Asking Price/ $117 $145 $133 Average Cap Rate 8.5% 9.1% 9.0% Space Sold (sf) 856,000 2,056,000 1,024,000 Average Price/ $58 $85 $96 Average Cap Rate 6.7% 6.9% 8.8% MANAGING PARTNER Mike Mixer Managing Partner mike.mixer@colliers.com RESEARCHER John Stater Research Director john.stater@colliers.com This report and other research materials may be found on our website at This quarterly report is a research document of Colliers International Las Vegas, NV. Questions related to information herein should be directed to the Research Department at Information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable and no representation is made as to the accuracy thereof. Accelerating success. COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL - LAS VEGAS P. 5