These slides are provided as a courtesy to Florida Realtors

Transcription

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2 These slides are provided as a courtesy to Florida Realtors Please do not re-use or repackage this content without the consent of Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. elliot@graphsandlaughs.net

3 WHERE ARE THE NEW HOUSES? NOT IN THE PIPELINE! Presented by: Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D. President: GraphsandLaughs, LLC January 26, 2017 Orlando, FL

4 The Economy is Stable! GDP = C+I+G+(X-M)

5 Rising Rates!

6 Import Prices for all Commodities: Inflation!! Rising nicely, but largely due to energy price increases

7 Producer Prices Show Signs of Inflation!!

8 Consumer Price Index: Inflation is Up a Bit Headline inflation is rising due to energy but Core is largely flat.

9 Core PCE Price Index: Inflation is Rising! It s due to rising wages, a weakening dollar and rising energy prices.

10 Inflation Expectations are Way Up of Late! 5 year and 10 year breakeven rates

11 Federal Reserve Behavior Rates Will Rise. But, How Fast?

12 Federal Reserve Behavior Fed funds is 0.625% 12/31/17: 1.375% 10-yr 2.60% 12/31/18: 2.125% 10-yr 3.10% 12/31/19: 2.875% Hike in June? Lots of Trump Uncertainty!

13 Home Equity Lines of Credit are Back in Fashion! Volume is double what is was at the trough in

14 Housing? It s Improving but In Fits and Starts!

15 Residential Fixed Investment Slowly Rises! Up 3.4% Y-o-Y. Non-residential up 1%, public down 12% and residential down 31% from peaks

16 Household Formation is on the Move But, it is all due to renter households. This should change.

17 Student Debt Payments are Not That High Median payment is $200/month while the average is $350/month

18 Change in Wealth by Median Household Credit Source: Russell Sage Foundation

19 Credit is Generally Very Hard to Get It is getting easier, but very slowly.

20 New Home Prices Are Too High Due to Regulation

21 Y-o-Y Percent Change in Hourly Earnings

22 Changes in Median Wage Growth Looks Good! Looks only at those continuously full-time employed

23 Months of Existing Home Inventory is Falling!

24 New Home Inventories Fell Fast and Now What? Was moving towards normalcy but is now reversing!

25 Apartment Vacancy Rates The MF cycle has probably turned. Rental vacancy rates are starting to level off.

26 Single-family Rental Increases Very large increases resulting from huge increases in demand

27 Price Growth is Very Fast Prices rise faster than wages! Y-o-Y prices up 4.3% 5.1% or 5.6% depending on the measure

28 Bigger Houses Continue to Get Built

29 To Many Big Houses

30 Builders Are Happier, But Is This As Good As It Gets? Builders have rarely been happier

31 Single-Family and Multifamily Starts A Nice Recovery Lack of lots, gun shy lenders, high prices, higher rates, SF looks good

32 Single-Family Starts by Region The South is clearly the best region

33 Cash Sales are Down from Peak Cash sales were 31.7% in 9/16, down 130 BP Y-o-Y. Resales are 80% of all sales. Historically cash sales are 25%. Peak was 46.5% in 1/11. Return to normal by 2019.

34 Negative Equity is Less and Less of a Problem Percent of loans in negative equity situation

35 Delinquencies & Foreclosures Continue Falling 30 and 60 day delinquencies are below normal!

36 REO Inventory Held by Banks is Declining too!

37 The U.S. Home Ownership Rate Has Bottomed? Demographic changes should start pushing it up

38 What About Things Here?

39 The Future Looks Better than the Present

40 State Unemployment Rates Significant differences exist: However, unemployment is below 7% everywhere!

41 Let s Do this Without A Lawyer, Thank You! Foreclosure inventory is 1% of homes with mortgage, still double the historic average.

42 Housing Starts in Miami-Fort Lauderdale Single-family is listless, Multifamily is super strong and holding.

43 Housing Starts in Tampa-St Petersburg Single-family is rising, multifamily is very strong and is strengthening.

44 Housing Starts in Orlando-Kissimmee Single-family steadily strengthens. Multifamily is strong and solid.

45 Housing Starts in Jacksonville Single-family is plateauing, multifamily looks to be strengthening.

46 Housing Starts in Bradenton-Sarasota Single-family plateaued in 2016, multifamily is gaining strength

47 Housing Starts in Cape Coral-Fort Myers Holy Cow! Single-family grows slowly, multifamily is generally improving.

48 Housing Starts in Naples-Marco Island Single-family is largely flat, Multifamily is also flat.

49 ANY QUESTIONS? Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D. Cell: Do you want to get my daily 70 word economics ? Please give me your business card or text bowtie to Thank YOU all very very

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