May 11 13, 2015 \ Turnberry Isle \ Miami

Transcription

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2 FLORIDA S ECONOMIC AND HOUSING MARKET FORECASTS

3 TODAY S MASTER PLANNED COMMUNITY Moderators: John Covert, Regional Director, Metrostudy Jeff Handlin, Principal, Oread Capital & Development Speakers: Denise Hogenes, Western Division Vice President, CCMC David Pelletz, South East Regional President, Standard Pacific Aaron Smith, Vice President, Brand Strategy, Roni Hicks

4 FLORIDA JOBS Year-Over-Year Change in Jobs by Industry Florida State 2014 March 2015 March 2014 March to % of % of 2015 March Industry # of Jobs Nonfarm # of Jobs Nonfarm Number % Total Nonfarm 7,530, % 7,796, % +265, % Manufacturing 313, % 319, % +5, % Construction and Mining 370, % 397, % +26, % Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 1,548, % 1,603, % +55, % Information 133, % 134, % % Financial Activities 507, % 520, % +13, % Professional and Business Services 1,126, % 1,172, % +46, % Educational and Health Services 1,108, % 1,156, % +48, % Leisure and Hospitality 1,060, % 1,112, % +52, % Other Services 313, % 325, % +12, % Government 1,048, % 1,053, % +5, % Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Real Estate Economics Total Employment by Super Sector March 2015 Government Other Services Leisure and Hospitality Educational and Health Services Professional and Business Services Financial Activities Information Trade, Transport, and Utilities Construction and Mining Manufacturing 325, , , , ,700 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Real Estate Economics 1,053,000 1,112,800 1,156,900 1,172,500 1,603, ,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 MSA 12-Month Employment Change by Super Sector March 2015 Twelve Month Change Government Other Services Leisure and Hospitality Educational and Health Services Professional and Business Services Financial Activities Information Trade, Transport, and Utilities Construction and Mining Manufacturing 5, ,800 12,300 13,300 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Real Estate Economics 26,800 48,800 46,000 52,100 55, ,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000

5 6,131,031 6,264,293 6,361,956 6,459,862 6,567,662 6,684,892 6,801,822 6,922,859 7,046,166 7,182,612 7,336,903 7,491,443 7,658,713 7,839,745 8,046,780 8,290,576 8,559,761 8,763,441 8,873,243 8,936,154 8,977,405 9,014,244 9,055,435 9,116,209 9,199,703 9,283,887 9,376,086 9,481,057 9,596,187 9,720,181 9,852, ,262 97,664 97, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,803 62,911 41,251 36,839 41,191 60,774 83,494 84,184 92, , , , ,848 FLORIDA HOUSING TOTAL HOUSING SUPPLY MAY MONTH CHANGE IN TOTAL HOUSING SUPPLY MAY ,000,000 10,000, , ,000 8,000, ,000 6,000, ,000 4,000, ,000 2,000,000 50, prj 2019prj 2018prj 2017prj 2016prj 2015est 2014p Source: Census Bureau; Real Estate Economics prj 2019prj 2018prj 2017prj 2016prj 2015est 2014p Source: Census Bureau; Real Estate Economics

6 Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 prj Jan-17 prj Jan-18 prj Jan-19 prj Jan-20 prj Jan-21 prj Units Demand/Supplied FLORIDA MODELED FORECAST HOUSING SUPPLY AND DEMAND 11,000,000 HOUSING DEMAND AND SUPPLY PATTERNS 10,000,000 9,000,000 8,000,000 7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 Total Housing Supply Total Housing Demand * Over/Under supply measures based on current jobs-to-housing relationship relative to long-term relationship betw een jobs and housing. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Census Bureau; National Assoc. of Realtors; Real Estate Economics

7 FLORIDA MODELED FORECAST HOUSING SUPPLY AND DEMAND HOUSING (OVER)/UNDER SUPPLY PATTERNS Jan-90 UNDER BUILT OVER BUILT Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan , , , ,000 - (200,000) (400,000) (600,000) (800,000) (1,000,000) * Over/Under supply measures based on current jobs-to-housing relationship relative to long-term relationship betw een jobs and housing. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Census Bureau; National Assoc. of Realtors; Real Estate Economics

8 Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 prj Jan-17 prj Jan-18 prj Jan-19 prj Jan-20 prj Jan-21 prj Median Housing Value FLORIDA MODELED FORECAST HOUSING AFFORDABILITY & PRICE APPRECIATION HOUSING VALUATION PATTERNS $275,000 $250,000 $225,000 $200,000 $175,000 $150,000 $125,000 $100,000 $75,000 $50,000 Historical/Forecast Home Price Income Supported Home Price Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Census Bureau; National Assoc. of Realtors; Real Estate Economics

9 Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan % -20.7% -5.5% -5.2% -4.2% 3.5% 2.5% 4.7% 2.8% 3.2% 4.6% 4.1% 5.1% 4.4% 5.4% 10.2% 11.1% 12.2% 19.4% 26.4% 3.3% 7.9% 7.5% 6.1% 5.3% 3.1% 1.2% 1.1% 0.4% 15.8% FLORIDA MODELED FORECAST HOUSING AFFORDABILITY & PRICE APPRECIATION HOUSING (OVER)/UNDER VALUATION PATTERNS OVER VALUED UNDER VALUED $80,000 $60,000 $40,000 $20,000 $0 ($20,000) ($40,000) ($60,000) ($80,000) ($100,000) 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% ANNUAL CHANGES IN HOME PRICES 2020prj 2019prj 2018prj 2017prj 2016prj 2015est 2014p Source: National Association of Realtors; RealtyTrac; various county recorders offices; Real Estate Economics ($120,000) * Over/Under valuation based on value of housing (inclusive of mortgage rates) relative to long-term relationship betw een housing value & household incomes. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Census Bureau; National Assoc. of Realtors; Real Estate Economics

10 FLORIDA MARKET UPDATE Mark Boud Real Estate Economics Anthony Crocco Regional Director Central Florida David Cobb Regional Director South Florida Tony Polito Regional Director Tampa/Sarasota

11 DIRECTORS ROUNDTABLE

12 FLORIDA MARKET UPDATE - Major appeal of your market - Biggest challenge facing your market - Biggest opportunity in your market - How foreclosures are affecting your market - Changing Consumer Segments

13 FLORIDA MARKET UPDATE 30% 25% 20% National Potential Demand Distribution vs. Actual New Home by Consumer Group since Large decline in Entry Level, Simple Life and Family Life Buyers looming 15% 10% - Features and Location and Elite buyers will grow over the next five years 5% - All segments of Active Adult buyers will explode 0% Entry Level Feature & Location Simple Life Family Life Elite AA Entry Level AA Feature & Location AA Elite 5 Year Demand Distribution Dist. of Actual New Home Closings Since 2012