Ventura County. Economic Profile. November 2008

Transcription

1 Ventura County Economic Profile November 2008 The copyright laws of the United States (Title 17 U.S. Code) forbid the unauthorized reproduction of this report by any means, including facsimile or computerized formats. Copyright 2006, CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

2 Ventura County Profile Characteristic 2007 Population Estimate % Population Change % Population Change % White 2007 % Hispanic 2007 % Black 2007 % Asian & Pacific Islander Per Capita Income 2007 Median Household Income 2007 Median Age Land Area Square Miles 2000 Total Establishments 2007 Civilian Employment Statistic 828, % 26.4% 54.2% 36.0% 1.7% 5.7% $31,013 $73, ,845 17, ,478 State Rank

3 Sales of Existing Detached Homes and Pacific West Consumer Confidence Ventura County, September 2008: 431 Units, Down 6.2% YTD, Up 89.0% YTY UNITS 1200 Sales Consumer Confidence INDEX Jan-90 Jul-90 Jan-91 Jul-91 Jan-92 Jul-92 Jan-93 Jul-93 Jan-94 Jul-94 Jan-95 Jul-95 Jan-96 Jul-96 Jan-97 Jul-97 Jan-98 Jul-98 Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS ; The Conference Board

4 10,000 9,000 8,000 Sales of Existing Detached Homes Ventura County, 2007: 4,108 Units, Down 28.9% YTY UNITS ANNUAL MONTHLY ,000 6, , ,000 3, ,000 1, SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS Jan Feb M a r A p r M a y Jun Jul A u g S e p t O c t N o v D e c

5 Median Price of Existing Detached Homes Ventura County, September 2008: $431,770, Down 36.7% YTY $800,000 $700,000 $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 $0 Jan-90 Jul-90 Jan-91 Jul-91 Jan-92 Jul-92 Jan-93 Jul-93 Jan-94 Jul-94 Jan-95 Jul-95 Jan-96 Jul-96 Jan-97 Jul-97 Jan-98 Jul-98 Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS

6 Median Price Annual Comparison Ventura County, 2007: $673,939, Down 1.8% YTY ANNUAL MONTHLY $800,000 $800,000 $700,000 $700,000 $600,000 $600,000 $500,000 $500,000 $400,000 $400,000 $300,000 $300,000 $200,000 $200, $100,000 $ $100,000 $- Jan Feb M a r A p r M a y Jun Jul A u g S e p t O c t N o v D e c SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS

7 Median Home Sales Price Ventura County Sep-08 Sep-07 Yearly % Change Ventura County $385,000 $540, % Camarillo $420,000 $560, % Fillmore $278,000 $475, % Moorpark $425,500 $625, % Newbury Park $538,250 $623, % Ojai $420,000 $542, % Oxnard $325,000 $523, % Port Hueneme $280,000 $345, % Santa Paula $228,000 $489, % Simi Valley $405,000 $515, % Thousand Oaks $460,000 $663, % Ventura $365,000 $520, % SOURCE: C.A.R.; DataQuick Information Systems. The price statistics are derived from all types of home sales -- new and existing, condos and single-family.

8 Unsold Inventory Index Ventura County, September 2008: 6.0 MONTHS Jan-90 Jul-90 Jan-91 Jul-91 Jan-92 Jul-92 Jan-93 Jul-93 Jan-94 Jul-94 Jan-95 Jul-95 Jan-96 Jul-96 Jan-97 Jul-97 Jan-98 Jul-98 Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS

9 SOURCE: Real Estate Research Council Foreclosures Q1/89 Q1/90 Q1/91 Q1/92 Q1/93 Q1/94 Q1/95 Q1/96 Q1/97 Q1/98 Q1/99 Q1/00 Q1/01 Q1/02 Q1/03 Q1/04 Q1/05 Q1/06 Q1/07 Q1/08 Ventura County

10 Proportion of Foreclosures in Housing Transfers Ventura County 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% SOURCE: Real Estate Research Council

11 Mortgage Rates 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% FRM ARM Federal Funds 0% Jan-91 Jul-91 Jan-92 Jul-92 Jan-93 Jul-93 Jan-94 Jul-94 Jan-95 Jul-95 Jan-96 Jul-96 Jan-97 Jul-97 Jan-98 Jul-98 Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 SOURCE: Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation

12 Housing Affordability Index Ventura County, December 2005: 13% % OF HOUSEHOLDS THAT CAN BUY 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Jan-88 Jul-88 Jan-89 Jul-89 Jan-90 Jul-90 Jan-91 Jul-91 Jan-92 Jul-92 Jan-93 Jul-93 Jan-94 Jul-94 Jan-95 Jul-95 Jan-96 Jul-96 Jan-97 Jul-97 Jan-98 Jul-98 Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS

13 First-time Buyer Housing Affordability Index Ventura County, 2nd Quarter 2008: 48% % OF HOUSEHOLDS THAT CAN BUY % OF HOUSEHOLDS THAT CAN BUY 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Q1/03 Q2/03 Q3/03 Q4/03 Q1/04 Q2/04 Q3/04 Q4/04 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07 Q2/07 Q3/07 Q4/07 Q1/08 Q2/08 SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS

14 Nonfarm Employment Ventura County, September 2008: Down 2.4% Y-T-Y Y-T-Y PERCENT CHANGE 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% Jan-91 Jul-91 Jan-92 Jul-92 Jan-93 Jul-93 Jan-94 Jul-94 Jan-95 Jul-95 Jan-96 Jul-96 Jan-97 Jul-97 Jan-98 Jul-98 Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 SOURCE: CA Employment Development Division

15 Unemployment Rate Ventura County, September 2008: 7.0% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Jan-90 Jul-90 Jan-91 Jul-91 Jan-92 Jul-92 Jan-93 Jul-93 Jan-94 Jul-94 Jan-95 Jul-95 Jan-96 Jul-96 Jan-97 Jul-97 Jan-98 Jul-98 Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS

16 Unemployment Rate Ventura County -- September 2008 Area Name Labor Force Rate Ventura County 430, % Camarillo city 32, % Casa Conejo CDP 1, % Channel Islands Beach CDP 2, % El Rio CDP 2, % Fillmore city 6, % Meiners Oaks CDP 2, % Mira Monte CDP 3, % Moorpark city 18, % Oak Park CDP 1, % Oak View CDP 2, % Ojai city 4, % Oxnard city 89, % Piru CDP % Port Hueneme city 10, % San Buenaventura (Ventura) 61, % Santa Paula city 14, % CCD Census County Division CDP Census Designated Place SOURCE: CA Employment Development Department

17 Unemployment Rate Ventura County -- September 2008 Area Name Labor Force Rate Ventura County 430, % Simi Valley city 69, % Thousand Oaks city 71, % CCD Census County Division CDP Census Designated Place SOURCE: CA Employment Development Department

18 Taxable Sales Ventura County ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% Q1/89 Q3/89 Q1/90 Q3/90 Q1/91 Q3/91 Q1/92 Q3/92 Q1/93 Q3/93 Q1/94 Q3/94 Q1/95 Q3/95 Q1/96 Q3/96 Q1/97 Q3/97 Q1/98 Q3/98 Q1/99 Q3/99 Q1/00 Q3/00 Q1/01 Q3/01 Q1/02 Q3/02 Q1/03 Q3/03 Q1/04 Q3/04 Q1/05 Q3/05 Q1/06 Q3/06 Q1/07 Q3/07 SOURCE: CA State Board of Equalization

19 New Housing Permits Ventura County, September 2008: 22 Units, Down 51.9% Y-T-D Single Family Multi-Family Jan-88 Jan-89 Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 SOURCE: Construction Industry Research Board

20 Median Price for New Homes Ventura County 3Q08 Detached: $699,900, Attached: $365,191 $1,000,000 $900,000 $800,000 $700,000 $600,000 Detached Attached $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 $0 Q2/88 Q2/89 Q2/90 Q2/91 Q2/92 Q2/93 Q2/94 Q2/95 Q2/96 Q2/97 Q2/98 Q2/99 Q2/00 Q2/01 Q2/02 Q2/03 Q2/04 Q2/05 Q2/06 Q2/07 Q2/08 SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS ; Hanley Wood

21 New Home Sales Ventura County (Attached), 2008 Q3 Sales: 51 Units Q2/88 Q2/89 Q2/90 Q2/91 Q2/92 Q2/93 Q2/94 Q2/95 Q2/96 Q2/97 Q2/98 Q2/99 Q2/00 Q2/01 Q2/02 Q2/03 Q2/04 Q2/05 Q2/06 Q2/07 Q2/08 SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS ; Hanley Wood

22 New Home Sales Ventura County (Detached), 2008 Q3 Sales: 30 Units Q2/08 Q2/88 Q2/89 Q2/90 Q2/91 Q2/92 Q2/93 Q2/94 Q2/95 Q2/96 Q2/97 Q2/98 Q2/99 Q2/00 Q2/01 Q2/02 Q2/03 Q2/04 Q2/05 Q2/06 Q2/07 SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS ; Hanley Wood

23 Population Percent Changes Ventura County ( ) 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% Ventura CA Nation 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% SOURCE:U.S. Census Bureau; California Department of Finance; California Association of REALTORS

24 Sources of Population Growth Ventura County ( ) THOUSANDS 20 Natural Increase Net Migration SOURCE: CA Department of Finance

25 Net Immigration Vs. Domestic Migration Ventura County THOUSANDS Net Immigration Domestic Migration SOURCE: CA Department of Finance

26 Household Relocations Ventura County County Outflow Inflow Net Outflow Los Angeles, CA 3,930 5,536 (952) Kern, CA Maricopa, AZ (375) San Diego, CA Santa Barbara, CA 709 1, Clark, NV Orange County, CA Riverside, CA San Bernardino, CA San Luis Obispo, CA Total-Top 10 8,856 9, All Migration 17,353 14,394 2,959 Total Number of Households 270,654 Top 10 as % of All Households 0.3% All Net Mig as % of All Households 1.1% Source: NAR Relocation Report 2006 IRS Data; Item , US Census Bureau

27 Where are new Ventura County households coming from? Los Angeles (5536) Santa Barbara (1042) San Diego (578) Orange County (489) Kern (312) Total incoming for 2006: 14,394 Total outgoing for 2006: 17,353 Source: NAR Relocation Report 2006 IRS Data; Item

28 Net Immigration by Ethnic Group Ventura County (1990 Census to 2000 Census) White, Non-Hispanic Hispanic Asian/Pacific Islander Black or Afr. Amer., Non-Hisp. Amer. Indian & Alaska Native, Non-Hisp Thousands SOURCE: CA Dept. of Finance

29 Number of Households by Ethnicity Ventura County (1990 Census vs Census) White Hispanic Asian/Pacific Islander Black , , , , ,000 SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau

30 Top 10 Home Buyer Surnames Ventura County (2007) GARCIA RODRIGUEZ GONZALEZ LOPEZ MARTINEZ HERNANDEZ PEREZ RAMIREZ JOHNSON LEE SOURCE: DataQuick SOURCE: Information California Association Systems of REALTORS Number of Buyers

31 Population by Age Group Ventura County ( ) Thousands SOURCE: California Department of Finance; California Association of REALTORS

32 Homeownership Rates Ventura Metropolitan Area, 2006: 69.8% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau

33 Homeownership Rates by Age Ventura County (2000 Census) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% SOURCE: California Department of Finance; California Association of REALTORS