CITRUS COUNTY COMPREHENSIVE PLAN

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1 CITRUS COUNTY COMPREHENSIVE PLAN APPENDIX F METHODOLOGIES USED IN THE FUTURE LAND USE ELEMENT REFERENCED IN CHAPTER 10 FUTURE LAND USE Updated: December 2, 1997, Ord. No A29

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3 Projection of Land Required for Residential Use Methodology: The projection of residential land is based on the increase in population and the 1995 demand for residential land use. 1. Population Change The medium population published by the University of Florida, Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR) projections is used. The target-planning year is The BEBR projected population for the Citrus County unincorporated area is as follows: Year Population , , , , , , Existing Residential Densities Using data from the 1995 existing land use inventory, the existing acreage of residential land use was calculated. These figures are then divided by the 1995 population in the unincorporated area to arrive at the ratio of acres to persons for each residential density as of Projected Gross Acreage Needed Assuming that the ratio of acres to persons remains steady throughout the planning period, then the ratio can be multiplied by the projected year 2020 population of 163,390 persons to obtain the projected gross acreage needed. 4. Projected Additional Acreage Needed The 1995 existing acres is subtracted from the gross acreage needed to obtain the additional acreage needed by the year Refer to Table F-1. Appendix F-1

4 TABLE F-1 PROJECTED RESIDENTIAL LAND USE ACREAGE NEEDS , CITRUS COUNTY UNINCORPORATED AREA Ratio of Acres Gross Acreage 1995 Acres 1995 Persons To Persons Needed Year 2020 (1) Additional Need ,193 97, ,135 45,942 (1) Projected year 2020 population is 163,390 Prepared By: Citrus County Division of Planning, 1997 Appendix F-2

5 Projection of Land Required for Public/Semi-Public Use Methodology: The projection of Public/Semi-Public land is based on the increase in population and the 1995 acreage needs for Public/Semi-Public land use. 1. Population Change In 1995, the unincorporated Citrus County population was 97,622 persons. Projected population for the target-planning year of 2020 is 163,390 persons. 2. Existing Public/Semi-Public Land Use According to the 1995 land use survey, there were 1,350 acres of developed Public/Semi- Public land use in unincorporated Citrus County. 3. Projected Gross Acreage Needed It was assumed that the Public/Semi-Public uses were sufficiently serving the population. Therefore, a ratio of Public/Semi-Public acres per person was calculated to project future needs. 1,350 (Public/Semi-Public acres per person)/ 97,622 (1995 population) = The population projection for the year 2020 is then multiplied by this factor to obtain the gross Public/Semi-Public land use need (Public/Semi-Public acres per person) x 163,390 (2020 population) = 2,260 Public/Semi-Public acres needs year Projected Additional Acreage Needed The 1995 existing acres is subtracted from the projected gross acreage needed to obtain the additional acreage needed by the year ,260 (projected gross acres 2020) 1,350 (1995 Public/Semi-Public acres) = 910 additional acres needed. Appendix F-3

6 Projection of Land Required for Recreation Open Space Methodology: 1. Population projections are established for each Planning District as identified in Table 2-9 of the Recreation and Open Space Element. The BEBR medium projection is used to project recreation needs. 2. Public lands for conservation and preservation purposes are excluded from the projection. Data from the parks and Recreation Division indicates a total of acres of recreation land use in the form of district, community, and neighborhood parks as of (Table 2-8, Recreation and Open Space Element) 3. To project the gross park needs, the adopted level of service standards are multiplied be the projected population. The result is a gross demand for acres of parks by year Refer to Table 2-10 in the Recreational and Open Space Element. 4. The existing 1995 park acres are subtracted from the gross need to obtain the additional park acres needed (gross need) (1995 acres) = (additional acres needed by 2020) Appendix F-4

7 Projection of Land Required for Transportation, Communication, and Utilities (TCU) Methodology: 1. TCU acreage less 2,673 acres of the Florida Power Facilities totaled 2,537 acres. 2. A ratio was determined based on the number of TCU acres in relation to the total unincorporated population in ,537 (TCU acres)/ 97,622 (1995 population) = TCU acres per person. 3. The projection population Year 2020 was multiplied by to obtain the projected gross needs for TCU acres. 163,390 (2020 population) x = 4,248 (2020 TCU acres) 4. The additional need is obtained by subtracting the year 2020 acres from the 1995 acres. 4,248 (2020 acres) 2,537 (1995 acres) = 1,747 (additional acres needed) Appendix F-5

8 Projection of Land Required for Industrial Use 1. Growth in actual industrial land use is reviewed for the past 12 years. Industrial land use has increased from 177 acres in 1983 to 692 in 1995, indicating an average annual increase of 42.9 acres each year. 2. It is assumed that this annual trend will continue. This annual rate of increase is calculated for each year from 1995 to the year As indicated in the table below, the total gross average need for industrial land by the year 2020 is projected to be 1,765 acres, or an additional need for 1,073 acres. INDUSTRIAL LAND USE NEEDS Year Gross Acres Additional Acres Needed Needed Appendix F-6

9 Projection of Land Required for Agricultural Use Methodology: 1. Data on the number of farmland acres in Citrus County was obtained from the Bureau of the Census for years 1969, 1974, 1978, and This data indicated an average annual loss of 1.3 percent in agricultural lands. 2. It is assumed that the trend of loss in agriculture lands will continue through the planning period. 3. The 1995 land use inventory indicated the presence of 74,306 acres of agriculture land. Using the 1995 as a base year, the amount of agriculture lands is projected through the year Year Projected Agricultural Acres , , , , , ,574 Appendix F-7

10 TABLE F-2 PROJECTED MAXIMUM POPULATION BASED ON THE GFLUM Maximum Population Land Use District GFLUM Acres Density By Planned Right Development Low Intensity Coastal and Lakes CL 55,722 6, ,489 Rural Residential RUR 47,487 10,780 10,780 Low Density Residential LDR 32, , ,525 Medium Density Residential MDR 15, , ,094 High Density Residential HDR 199 5,421 9,035 Residential Mixed Use RMU 48, , ,974 Central Ridge Residential CRR TOTAL 199, ,100 1,529,357 Prepared By: Citrus County Division of Planning, October 1997 Appendix F-8

11 LAND USE DISTRICT Low Intensity Coastal and Lakes CL TABLE F-3 MAXIMUM POTENTIAL POPULATION GFLUM DENSITY WITH PLANNED DEVELOPMENT PLANNED DEVELOPMENT 1 du/five acres w/ special PD conditions 1 du/one acre w/ FQD1 du/ten acres w/ special PD condition FACTOR GFLUM ACRES MAXIMUM DU (1) MAXIMUM POTENTIAL POPULATION (2) ,722 55, ,489 Rural Residential RUR Not Permitted ,487 4,749 10,780 Low Density Residential LDR 6 du/ac , , ,525 Medium Density Residential MDR 8 du/ac , , ,094 High Density Residential HDR 20 du/ac ,980 9,035 Residential Mixed Use RMU 6 du/ac , , ,974 Central Ridge Residential CRR N/A TOTAL 199, ,726 1,529,357 (1) Maximum dwelling possible with Planned Development (2) Assumes 2.27 persons per unit consistent with the 1990 census Prepared By: Citrus County Division of Planning, October 1997 Appendix F-9

12 TABLE F-4 MAXIMUM POTENTIAL POPULATION GFLUM DENSITY WITH DENSITY BY-RIGHT MAXIMUM RESIDENTIAL DENSTIY GFLUM MAXIMUM LAND USE DISTRICT PERMITTED ACRES DU (1) FACTOR DESNITY Low Intensity Coastal and Lakes CL 1 du/ ,722 2,786 6,324 Rural Residential RUR 1 du/10 ac ,487 4,749 10,780 Low Density Residential LDR 2 du/ac ,344 64, ,842 Medium Density Residential MDR 6 du/ac ,699 94, ,820 High Density Residential HDR 12 du/ac ,388 5,421 Residential Mixed Use RMU As Approved (1) ,236 96, ,881 Central Ridge Residential CRR As Approved (1) TOTAL 199, , ,100 (1) It is assumed that the predominant density is 2.0 DU/AC in the previously approved projects (2) Assumes 2.27 persons per unit consistent with the 1990 census. Prepared By: Citrus County Division of Planning, October 1997 MAXIMUM POTENTIAL POPULATION (2) Appendix F-10

13 Projection of Land Required for Commercial Use Methodology: The Projection of commercial land is based on the increase in population and the 1995 acreage needs for commercial land use. 1. Population Change In 1995, the unincorporated Citrus County population was 97,622 persons. Projected population for the target-planning year of 2020 is 163,390 persons. 2. Existing Commercial Land Use According to the 1995 land use survey, there were 2,150 acres of developed commercial land use in unincorporated Citrus County. 3. Projected Gross Acreage Needed It was assumed that the commercial developments were sufficiently serving the population. Therefore, a ratio of commercial acres per person was calculated to project future needs. 2,150 (commercial acres)/97,622 (1995 population) = The population projections for year 2020 is then multiplied by this factor to obtain the gross commercial land use need (commercial acres per person) x 163,390 (2020 population) = 3,599 commercial acres needs year Adjusted Gross Need The gross need is adjusted to take into account market choice, market imperfections, site restrictions, and other variables that can remove developable land from the market. To assure that there is sufficient commercial land to accommodate the projected population, the gross acreage is multiplied by ,599 x 1.25 = 4, Projected Additional Acreage Needed The 1995 existing acres is subtracted from the projected gross acreage needed to obtain the total additional acreage needed by the year ,499 (projected gross acres 2020) 2,150 (1995 commercial acres) = 2,349 additional acres needed. Appendix F-11

LARGE- AND SMALL-SCALE COMPREHENSIVE PLAN AMENDMENT INSTRUCTIONS AND INFORMATION PACKET

LARGE- AND SMALL-SCALE COMPREHENSIVE PLAN AMENDMENT INSTRUCTIONS AND INFORMATION PACKET MARION COUNTY GROWTH SERVICES 2710 E. Silver Springs Blvd. Ocala, FL 34470 Phone 352-438-2600 Fax 352-438-2601 http://www.marioncountyfl.org/planning.htm