2019 DC Study External Stakeholder Committee Minutes
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1 Date / Time: October 10 th, :30pm 3:30pm Location: Committee Room #1, 2 nd Floor City Hall 2019 DC Study External Stakeholder Committee Minutes Attended: George Kotsifas (Chair), Lois Langdon, Sandy Levin, Craig Linton, Peter Norman, Anna Lisa Barbon, Paul Yeoman, Matt Feldberg, Adam Langmuir, Kevin Edwards, Greg LaForge, Gregg Barrett, Scott Mathers, Peter Kokkoros, Jennie Ramsay, Jamie Cook, Lynn Duong Purpose: Monthly meetings leading up to adoption of 2019 DC Study & By-law Update Agenda Item Discussion Overview of Presentation Points: Relative to the draft report presented on July , revised population, housing and employment forecasts were presented that reflected the following changes: Higher labour force and employment growth as well as associated gross floor area. 1. Revised Population, Housing & Employment Growth Forecast Presentation Jamie Cook A slightly higher long-term population and housing forecast (504,000 vs. 499,000 persons by 2044) reflective of higher population at the Middlesex County level (including the City of London) and stronger labour force growth relative to historical trends. A greater share of population growth derived from natural increase (births less deaths). An increased share of forecast housing growth derived from lowdensity households. Questions/Comments from Stakeholders: What are the implications of Secondary Dwelling Units? o It is difficult at this point to determine their impact, however it appears to be having a much greater impact in the GTA/GGH as opposed to municipalities like London.
2 o The City has developed a building permit code for secondary units that allows for tracking and monitoring for future studies. Since forecasts have generally been over optimistic in the past, what are the implications for the DC funds should these projections overestimate growth over the 5 year period? o GMIS is a key tool to be able to adjust project timing and expenditures to match the pace of growth being experienced. It will continue to be key if the projections are again optimistic. I like that that the 2017 Ministry of Finance projections were incorporated into the revised work. As this projections covers household growth, it will need to be refined to reflect permits. Longer-term, understanding what form of housing is expected is important as it will not be tied to recent supply, but to ages/stages and demonstrated propensities. This will inform future changes like the expected shift towards increased medium density households. It was noted that the recent CMHC data identified a Low Density capture rate of less than 40% for 2016 and 2017 which is below what the revised projections estimate. Have the projections incorporated what is happening in the retail market the shift towards e-commerce and away from bricks and mortar stores? o The revised projections assume a lower rate of retail growth over the planning horizon as compared to historical actuals. The deadline for comments on the revised presentation is October 30 th. The final report will be completed in early/mid-november with an anticipated SPPC Committee date of December 11 th. Overview of Presentation Points: 2. Introduction to Growth Allocations Presentation Kevin Edwards The approach used in the 2014 DC Study was presented as a framework to undertake the allocations for the 2019 DC study. The Built Boundary delineates the Built and Greenfield Areas
3 Land Supply is based on the 2017 Vacant Land Inventory. Soft site opportunities are not captured by the VLI as while these sites may be underused, they are not technically vacant. Unit counts by type are based on development approvals and formal development proposals. For lands without a planning application (designated lands), units per hectare factors are applied based on density assumptions. To account for LDR units being built on MDR designated lands, 25% of MDR designated land supply is allocated to LDR in Greenfield Areas. Demand as determined by the Watson report will be allocated between the Built and Greenfield Areas. The residential Built Area allocation is further sub-allocated into 3 areas: Nodes/Corridors, Other Built Area VLI and Other Built Area. The residential Greenfield Area allocation is further sub-allocated into 6 areas that reflect the GMIS growth areas. Further details regarding the growth allocations will be provided at the November Stakeholders meeting. Questions/Comments from Stakeholders: Will the 45% intensification target be used in the allocations? o Yes, however the target may be phased in over the planning period. Will an outcome of the projections be an Urban Growth Boundary expansion discussion? o It is important to note that this is an exercise to estimate unit growth for DC purposes; it is not a comprehensive review of the Official Plan under the Planning Act. o There is no anticipated trigger for a UGB expansion anytime soon, a redesignation of lands within the boundary would need to be considered before an expansion is considered. Are there any anticipated changes to the allocations based on the revised projections? o The framework will be maintained. There may be some tweaks to area allocations based on the updated numbers.
4 Revised Development Charge Study Growth Projections Presentation to Development Charges External Stakeholder Committee October 10, 2017
5 Purpose of Presentation Provided herein is a summary of the revisions made by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. to the draft City of London population, housing and employment forecast. This revisions have been made in response to the comments provided by the Urban League of London and Altus Group as of August
6 Summary of Comments Received on Draft Growth Projections Urban League of London Total of 39 comments were provided by the Urban League of London on August 20, Watson & Associates has responded to each of these comments in an October 5, 2017 memo to Kevin Edwards and Paul Yeoman. Altus Group Altus Group submitted a peer review to the London Development Institute dated August 31, 2017 summarizing their comments/concerns regarding the draft forecast. 2
7 Summary of Comments Received on Draft Growth Projections Comments provided by Altus Group can be generally categorized under the following themes: Methodology; Macroeconomic Content; Projection Model; Housing Model; Employment Model; and Floor Space Analysis. In response to the comments provided by Altus Group as well as the London League of Developers, Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. (Watson) has revised the draft population, housing and employment. This revisions are summarized herein. 3
8 Additional Review of Macro Economic and Demographic Trends Our revised growth projections incorporate a further review of recent and forecast macro-economic and demographic trends. This includes an assessment of the following background data and/or documents: Historical labour force growth rates at the Provincial and London Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) level; Historical birth, death, and net migration by type and age at the Middlesex County level (including the City of London); and A review of forecast population growth at the Provincial and Middlesex County level in accordance with the Ministry of Finance Spring 2017 population projections; and Consideration of recent Provincial and Federal economic reports. 4
9 Historical Labour Force Growth Trends, 1996 to
10 Middlesex County 1 Historical Net Migration Trends by Type 6 1 Includes the City of London.
11 Middlesex County 1 Historical Net Migration Trends ( ) Middlesex County City of London 1 Includes the City of London. 7
12 Middlesex County 1 Historical Net Migration Trends Between , approximately 95% of net migration within Middlesex County occurred within the City of London 1 Includes the City of London. 8
13 Review of Middlesex County 1 Long-Term Population Forecast, (MOF) Forecast population growth for Middlesex County as per the Spring 2017 Ontario Ministry of Finance projections are tracking higher than the 2012 Altus projections. 9 1 Includes the City of London.
14 Revised Draft Growth Forecast 10
15 City of London Labour Force Forecast, 2016 to
16 City of London Forecast Population, 2016 to
17 City of London Components of Population Growth, 2011 to
18 Population Share Analysis City of London to Middlesex County Includes the City of London.
19 City of London Forecast Total Housing Growth 2016 to
20 City of London Population by Age Forecast, 2011 to
21 City of London Household Forecast, 2016 to
22 City of London - Comparison of 2012 Vs Low Density Housing Forecast Source: Altus Forecast numbers from Employment, Population, Housing and Non-Residential Construction Projections, City of London, Ontario, 2011 Update. Building permit data is from City of London, and forecast is derived by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. 18
23 City of London Medium and High Density Housing Activity Currently under Site Plan Control 19
24 City of London Forecast Housing Growth by Structure Type, 2016 to
25 City of London Forecast Housing Growth by Structure Type, 2011 to
26 City of London Employment Forecast Comparison, 2011 to
27 City of London Employment Forecast by Major Sector, 2011 to Employment Sector Work at Home Industrial Commercial/ Population Related Institutional No Fixed Place of Work Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd % 6% 6% 6% 6% 20% 19% 19% 18% 18% 38% 37% 37% 37% 37% 27% 28% 28% 28% 28% 9% 10% 10% 10% 11%
28 City of London, Non-Residential GFA Forecast, 2011 to
29 2019 Development Charges Growth Allocation DC External Stakeholder Committee October 10, 2017
30 Agenda Purpose of Growth Allocations Determining Land Supply Development Forecast: Allocating Built Area/Greenfield Demand Allocating Greenfield Areas Demand Next Steps
31 Purpose and Topics to Discuss Determination of development charges 5 (1) The following is the method that must be used, in developing a development charge by-law, to determine the development charges that may be imposed: 1. The anticipated amount, type and location of development, for which development charges can be imposed, must be estimated. Used to estimate, at a high level, the location and timing of unit construction to inform DC Study master plans Approach Used: Determine Land Supply Review Development Trends Review Land Use Assumptions by Type (Residential, ICI) Apply Development Forecast: Built Area/Greenfield Area allocation Sub-Area Allocations
32 Conceptual Development Forecast Model Built/Greenfield Allocation Area Sub-Allocation Built-up Area (Intensification) Nodes and Corridors Downtown Other intensification Unit Construction by Type and by Period Greenfield Lands North Northeast Southeast Southwest West Northwest Availability & Timing: Vacant Land Inventory (Servicing Period) Rural Rural LDR (minor)
33 Built Boundary The PPS requires municipalities to establish and implement intensification targets within built up areas. This is accomplished by identifying a fixed line that reflects what was built and on the ground at a certain point in time. Allows for intensification to be measured over the long-term and projected growth to be allocated between areas that are considered intensification and those considered greenfield. London s built boundary was established through the 2006 Official Plan review; has been incorporated into the London Plan.
34 2019 Development Charges Residential Growth Allocation Residential Land Supply
35 Greenfield Area Residential Land Supply
36 Residential Land Supply: Vacant Land Inventory (VLI) An annual city-wide inventory of London s vacant land supply Identifies unit counts by unit type (LDR/MDR/HDR) for vacant lands based on development approvals and formal development proposals For lands without a planning application, units per hectare factors are applied based on density assumptions are shown to the right: Same factors were used in the 2011 Land Needs Study and 2014 DC study LDR MDR HDR 16 uph (gross) 30 uph (gross) 125 uph (gross)
37 LDR Construction on MDR lands Matching supply and demand generally assumes unit types will be constructed on their appropriate designation (e.g. LDR units on LDR lands). However MDR units can be constructed on LDR lands, and this occurs frequently Land Needs Study and previous DC study allocated 25% of MDR lands for LDR demand to account for this Proposed to continue to allocate 25% of designated MDR lands to LDR supply Results in an additional 1259 units of LDR supply (6% of LDR total) Reduces MDR supply by 2383 units (-8%)
38 Greenfield Vacant Land Supply (as of December 31, 2016) Category LDR Units MDR Units HDR Units Total Units North 3142 (15%) 3805 (16%) 2696 (18%) 9643 (16%) Northwest 2172 (11%) 3250 (14%) 2080 (14%) 7502 (13%) Northeast 2818 (13%) 1643 (7%) 471 (3%) 4933 (8%) Southeast 2407 (11%) 3094 (13%) 2020 (14%) 7459 (13%) Southwest 9153 (43%) 9406 (39%) 4759 (31%) 23,318 (38%) West 1508 (7%) 2605 (11%) 2917 (20%) 7030 (11%) Total 21,201 (100%) 23,804 (100%) 14,943 (100%) 59,949 (100%) Notes: 1) Based on 2006 Built Boundary 2) Values represent units, not hectares 3) Represents unit yields from registered plans, draft approved plans and designated lands 4) Includes 25% of MDR designated lands allocated for LDR
39 Future Built Area Development Diffuse distribution (general intensification) Older residential areas Future Built Area Development Nodes and Corridors Downtown, Transit Village Rapid Transit Corridor and designations in the London Plan Other Built Area Vacant Lands Nonnodes/corridors lands identified in built area Vacant Land Inventory
40 Built Area Land Supply
41 Built Area Vacant Land Supply (as of December 31, 2016) Category LDR Units MDR Units HDR Units Nodes and Corridors Other Built Area Total Notes: 1) Based on 2006 Built Boundary 2) Values represent units, not hectares 3) The above unit yields are based on known and available built area sites. Other likely built area developments (not captured in Built Area VLI): General intensification in older areas of the city (i.e., infill, redevelopment) South Street Children's Hospital, Nurses Residence (250+ units) Downtown infill (parking lots with existing buildings)
42 Land Supply: Summary Land Supply is based on the Vacant Land Inventory (VLI) as of December 31, 2016 Built Area/Greenfield Area boundary based on 2006 built boundary Built Area Assumptions: Demand will always be satisfied with sufficient supply Greenfield Area Assumptions: 25% of MDR designated lands allocated to LDR LDR designated lands: 16 uph gross MDR designated lands: 30 uph gross HDR designated lands: 125 uph gross
43 2019 Development Charges Residential Growth Allocation Demand
44 Conceptual Development Forecast Model Built/Greenfield Allocation Area Sub-Allocation Built-up Area (Intensification) Nodes and Corridors Downtown Other intensification Unit Construction by Type and by Period Greenfield Lands North Northeast Southeast Southwest West Northwest Availability & Timing: Vacant Land Inventory (Servicing Period) Rural Rural LDR (minor)
45 2019 Development Charges Residential Growth Allocation Built Area/Greenfield Area Allocation
46 Built Area/Greenfield Allocation (2014 DC Study) LDR MDR HDR Total Built Area 6% 6% 5% 4% Greenfield 93% 93% 94% 95% Rural 1% 1% 1% 1% Built Area 25% 60% 60% 60% Greenfield 75% 40% 40% 40% Built Area 80% 90% 90% 90% Greenfield 20% 10% 10% 10% Built Area 31% 41% 41% 39% Greenfield 69% 59% 59% 61% LDR capture rate for Built-Area will slightly decrease over time MDR capture rate in the Built-Area will increase over time HDR units will be predominantly constructed within the Built Area
47 2019 Development Charges Residential Growth Allocation Built Area Sub-Allocation
48 Built Area Growth Sub-Allocations Allocate Built Area portion to three areas at the Traffic Zone level: Nodes and Corridors: reflect Downtown, Rapid Transit Corridor and Transit Village designations in the London Plan A further sub-allocation between Primary, Secondary and Tertiary areas Other BA VLI: reflects Built Area Vacant Land Inventory outside of Nodes and Corridors Other Built Area: reflects remaining residential lands in the Built Area LDR Other Built Area Nodes/ Corridors 40% 60% MDR Other Built Area HDR Other BA VLI 0% 60% Nodes/ Corridors 25% 75% Other Built Area Other BA VLI 30% 70% Nodes/ Corridors 15% 85% Other BA VLI 70% 30%
49 2019 Development Charges Residential Growth Allocation Greenfield Area Sub-Allocation
50 Greenfield Areas LDR Allocation (2014 DC Study) Greenfield Area GMIS Capture rates based on trends and planned investment North, Northwest and Southeast capture rates to decrease as investments are made to open up other greenfield areas Northeast capture rate to increase after 2019 when investments made Long-term LDR shift to Southwest as other areas build-out North 20% 22% 18% 15% 10% Northwest 22% 22% 12% 10% 8% Northeast 8% 5% 25% 16% 10% Southeast 15% 16% 15% 15% 5% Southwest 20% 20% 25% 40% 50% West 15% 15% 5% 4% 17% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
51 Built Boundary Industrial Commercial Institutional
52 Industrial Allocation Area Northeast 22% 22% 17% 17% 7% Northwest 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% New VMP 0% 0% 15% 20% 25% New Wonderland 0% 0% 10% 15% 20% Southwest 10% 12% 12% 12% 12% Southeast 57% 45% 35% 25% 25% Built Area 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Estimated employment converted into Square Metres based on Floor Space Per Worker (FSW) ratio provided by Watson Applied to Vacant Land Inventory at 23% floor area ratio
53 Commercial Allocation Area Northeast 5% 10% 25% 10% 0% North 5% 10% 0% 5% 5% Northwest 15% 5% 0% 5% 5% West 5% 0% 0% 10% 10% Southwest 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% Southeast 0% 5% 5% 0% 10% Built Area 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% Central London 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Category includes Retail and Office separate projections by Watson Applied to Vacant Land Inventory at 30% floor area ratio 40% of Commercial allocated to Built Area 75% of Office allocated to Built Area; 25% of this allocated to Central London
54 Institutional Allocation Area Built Area 82% Hospitals (existing) 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% UWO (existing) 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% Fanshawe (exist) 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% Schools 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% Institutional VLI 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% Other Built Area 17% 17% 17% 17% 17% Greenfield Area 18% Schools 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% Other Greenfield 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 82% allocated to Built Area Applied to Vacant Land Inventory at varying floor area ratios
55 Next Steps October 10 th Oct/Nov - Follow-up External Stakeholder Meeting on Projections - Introduction to Growth Allocations - Follow-up projection conversations and Final Report - Reviewing and confirming allocation assumptions December 11 th - Strategic Priorities and Policy Committee for Projections Dec/Jan - Finalize Growth Allocations
Table of Contents. Appendix...22
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