Brazilian Real Estate Trends and prospects. Our business is making business
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1 Brazilian Real Estate Trends and prospects making business
2 You cannot manage what you can t measure You cannot measure what is not defined You cannot define what you don t understand and there is no success without management William Edwards Deming
3 Suspicion is not certainty! Robert Schiller (2005) was one of the first to demonstrate that very long-term evolution of Real Estate prices existed in the USA (and was awarded the Nobel Prize for his work) The conclusion he reached was that: The explosion of real estate prices in the USA during the years of the 2000 decade was a bubble. During a short visit to Brazil in 2013 he declared; I suspect that there is a real estate market bubble in Brazil I cannot be absolutely certain that a bubble exists in Brazil because I do not have sufficient knowledge of the local market characteristics In 2004 he repeated the insinuation that Brazil would have a bubble in There is no bubble in Brazil because the characteristics of a bubble are completely different from those indicated. How can one affirm something without a wide knowledge of the local market?
4 ZERO risk of a bubble Real Estate credit and its contribution to the Brazilian GDP is too small to be able to generate a crisis of a real estate bubble. Comparing Brazil to other countries. particularly the USA. Holland and Spain. one sees at once that the relationship with a bubble is directly connected to real estate credit and the respective country GDP. USA 82% Holland 64% Spain 57% South Africa 50% France 41% Germany 38% Italy 23% Chile Brazil Mexico 1,0% 9,5% 21%
5 ZERO risk of a bubble 11.6 milion of households are rented (18% of the total) Demand For Real Estate 5.8 milion residences ( housing shortage) Potential market for over 10 years 341 divorces thousand 1.1 milion weddings Pinheiro. Source: PNAD 2014 (IBGE) & Fundação João
6 Housing Deficit and Demand in Brazil 2012 deficit: 5.8 million units (FJP. 2014) 2007/2009 Projected demand (Cedeplar. Planhab.2009): 2012 to 2015: 5.2 million units 2016 to 2019: 5.9 million units 2020 to 2023: 7.2 million units. Total 2012 to 2023: 18.3 million units.
7 Real Estate Financing Real Estate SBPE Financing (BRL Bilions) Acquisition and Construction We are back to the 2011 platform.
8 Real Estate Financing Real Estate SBPE Financing (BRL Bilions) Acquisition New Buildings Variation 2015/2014 (-10%) - A considerable portion of these purchases was acquired from the drawings (old buy decisions) - - Borrowers are receiving the Keys and financing themselves with the financial agent. Previously Used Buildings Variation 2015/2014 (-50%) - More selectivity os the financial agentes - Lower Loan-to-value (LTV)
9 Real Estate Financing Real Estate SBPE Financing (BRL Bilions) Construction - Adverse economic conditions - Fall in the incorporator s sales - Reduction of real estate launchings - Drop in demand
10 Non-payment of real estate credit Mortgage + Liens Liens
11 Visiting the past and looking to the future It is difficult to foresee the future without first reviewing the past because the economic and market cycles tend to repeat themselves. At present Brazil does not have an historical base of real estate prices formatted with the necessary consistency what exists are data-bases recently elaborated by two of the principle Brazilian real estate portals. ZAP and VivaReal. Even these two data-bases concentrate the information on the principal Brazilian business center in the City of São Paulo and start only in June * * Monthly IPCA Variation Source: FIPE/ZAP
12 Variation of real estate prices in Brazil * * Values adjusted in accordance with the IPCA (denominated INPC up to 1979) Source: FIPE/ZAP
13 Variation of real estate prices in Brazil * *1 * Values adjusted in accordance with the IPCA (denominated INPC up to 1979) *1 Cruzado Monetary Plan Source: FIPE/ZAP
14 Variation of real estate prices in Brazil. * * Values adjusted in accordance with the IPCA (denominated INPC up to 1979) Source: FIPE/ZAP
15 Variation of real estate prices in Brazil * * Values adjusted in accordance with the IPCA (denominated INPC up to 1979) Source: FIPE/ZAP
16 Variation of real estate prices in Brazil * * Values adjusted in accordance with the IPCA (denominated INPC up to 1979) Source: FIPE/ZAP
17 Variation of real estate prices in Brazil * * Values adjusted in accordance with the IPCA (denominated INPC up to 1979) Source: FIPE/ZAP
18 Variation of real estate prices in Brazil * * Values adjusted in accordance with the IPCA (denominated INPC up to 1979) Source: FIPE/ZAP
19 Variation of the real estate prices in Brazil * * Values adjusted in accordance with the IPCA (denominated INPC up to 1979) Source: FIPE/ZAP
20 Variation of the real estate prices in Brazil * Fonte: FIPE/ZAP * Values adjusted in accordance with the IPCA (denominated INPC up to 1979) Source: FIPE/ZAP
21 Variation of real estate prices in Brazil * *1 *2 * Fipe/Zap historical values adjusted in accordance with the IPCA (Denominated INPC up to 1979); for the USA numbers. Source was Schiller (2015). *1 Index Fipe/Zap historical (IPCA/IBGE). *2 Prices for the USA real estate (Schiller 2015) Source: FIPE/ZAP
22 Variation of real estate prices in Brazil * *1 * Deflated by the IPCA index (IBGE) *1 Deflated byincc (FGV) Source: FIPE/ZAP
23 Variation of real estate prices in Brazil * *1 *2 * Fipe/Zap historical values in BRL adjusted in accordance with the IPCA/INPCA and converted to te USA dollar by the exchange rote on the date and duly adjusted by the CPI. *1 Fine/Zap historical index (IPCA/IBGE) *2 Fine/Zap historical index (USD) Source: FIPE/ZAP
24 Variation of real estate prices in Brazil * *1 *2 * Values adjusted in accordance with the IPCA (Denominated INPC up to 1979); for the wage and salary mass. *1 Fine/Zap historical index (IPCA/IBGE) *2 Salary formal mass. Source: RAIS (up to 1997) and FGTS from 1997 to the present.
25 Elements of real estate prices Subtitles: Employment Open Areas Bedromms Suites Balconies Parkinf Spaces Commerce Swimming Pools Metro Schools Slums Parks Hospitals Source: FIPE/ZAP
26 Variation in real estate financing The Real estate market stats to gain value. BRL bilion made available for financiong BRL 113 bilion made available for financing Unstable economy Expansion of the Brazilian Real Estate Market when the crisis endsv BRL 79.0 bilion made available for financiong BRL bilion made available for financing Instability of the Brazilian economy Drop of BRL 75.6 bilion in availability of financing Confirmed fall in real estate prices Source: FIPE/ZAP
27 Real Estate Financing Units Financed Amounts in BRL milions Period Construction Acquisition Total Construction Acquisition Total Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total Source: Abecip and the Banco Central Obs: Repairs and material for construiction are included in the Construction linr.
28 Real Estate Financing Financed Units Jan Fev Mar Abr Mai Jun Jul Ago Set Out Nov Dez Construção Construction Aquisição Acquisition Values Financed Jan Fev Mar Abr Mai Jun Jul Ago Set Out Nov Dez Construção Construction Aquisição Acquisition
29 Real Estate Financing Period Financed Units Values in R$ Million Construction Aquisition Total Construction Aquisition Total Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Total Source: Abecip & Banco Central Obs: Repairs and construction material are included in Costruction.
30 Real Estate Financing Financed units Jan Fev Mar Abr Mai Jun Jul Ago Set Out Nov Dez Construção Construction Aquisição Acquisition Values financed Jan Fev Mar Abr Mai Jun Jul Ago Set Out Nov Dez Construção Construction Aquisição Acquisition
31 Units launched Month Period Considered Units Launched jan/ feb/ mar/14 Jan-Mar/ apr/14 Feb-Apr/ may/14 Mar-May/ june/14 Apr-June/ july/14 MayJuly/ aug/14 June-Aug/ sep/14 July-Set/ out/14 Aug-Out/ nov/14 Sep-Nov/ dec/14 Out-Dec/ jan/15 Nov/2014-Jan/ feb/15 Dec/2014-Feb/ mar/15 Jan-Mar/ abr/15 Feb-Apr/ may/15 Mar-May/ jun/15 Apr-Jun/ jul/15 May-Jul/ aug/15 June-Aug/ sep/15 July-Sep/ oct/15 Aug-Out/ nov/15 Sept-Nov/ dec/15 Oct-Dec/ Source: Abrainc/Fipe Last update: 18/02/2016 Methodology available in
32 VGV s launched Reference Month Period Considered jan/14 - feb/14 - VGV s launched ( Lançado (R$ million. nominal) mar/14 Jan-Mar/ abr/14 Feb-Abr/ may/14 Mar-May/ june/14 Apr-June/ july/14 May-July/ aug/14 Jun-Aug/ sep/14 July-Set/ oct/14 Aug-Oct/ nov/14 Sep-Nov/ dec/14 Oct-Dec jan/15 Nov/2014-Jan/ feb/15 Dec/2014-Feb/ mar/15 Jan-Mar/ apr/15 Feb-Apr/ may15 Mar-May/ jun/15 Apr-Jun/ jul/15 May-Jul/ aug/15 June-Aug/ sep/15 July-Set/ oct/15 Aug-Out/ nov/15 Sep-Nov/ dec/15 Oct-Dec/ Source: Abrainc/Fipe Last update: 18/02/2016 Methodology available in
33 Units sold Reference Month Period Considered Units Sold jan/ feb/ mar/14 Jan-Mar/ apr/14 Feb-Apr/ may/14 Mar-May/ june/14 Apr-Jun/ july/14 May-Jul/ aug/14 Jun-Aug/ sep/14 Jul-Sep/ oct/14 Aug-Oct/ nov/14 Sep-Nov/ dec/14 Oct-Dec/ jan/15 Nov/2014-Jan/ feb/15 Dec/2014-Feb/ mar/15 Jan-Mar/ apr/15 Feb-Apr/ may/15 Mar-May/ jun/15 Apr-Jun/ jul/15 May-Jul/ aug/15 Jun-Aug/ sep/15 Jul-Sep/ oct/15 Aug-Out/ nov/15 Sep-Nov/ Dec/15 Oct-Dez/ Source: Abrainc/Fipe Last Update: 18/02/2016 Methodology available in
34 Sales Values Reference Month Period Considered jan/14 - feb/14 - VGV s Launched (BRT million. nominal) mar/14 Jan-Mar/ apr/14 Feb-Apr/ may/14 Mar-May/ June14 Apr-June/ july/14 May-July/ aug/14 June-Aug/ sep/14 July-Sep/ oct/14 Aug-Oct/ nov/14 Sep-Nov/ dec/14 Oct-Dec/ jan/15 Nov/2014-Jan/ Feb15 Dec/2014-Feb/ mar/15 Jan-Mar/ apr/15 Feb-Apr/ may/15 Mar-May/ june/15 Apr-June/ july/15 May-July/ aug/15 June-Aug/ sep/15 July-Sep/ oct/15 Aug-Out/ nov/15 Sep-Nov/ dec/15 Oct-Dec/ Source: Abrainc/Fipe Last Update: 18/02/2016 Methodology available in
35 Offers Available Reference Month Period Considered Final Offer (units) jan/ feb/ mar/14 Jan-Mar/ apr/14 Feb-Apr/ may/14 Mar-May/ jun/14 Apr-Jun/ jul/14 May-Jul/ aug/14 Jun-Aug/ sep/14 Jul-Sep/ oct/14 Aug-Oct/ nov/14 Sep-Nov/ dec/14 Oct-Dec/ jan/15 Nov/2014-Jan/ feb/15 Dec/2014-Feb/ mar/15 Jan-Mar/ apr/15 Feb-Apr/ may/15 Mar-May/ jun/15 Apr-Jun/ jul/15 May-Jul/ aug/15 Jun-Aug/ sep/15 Jul-Sep/ oct/15 Aug-Oct/ nov/15 Sep-Nov/ dec/15 Oct-Dec/ Source: Abrainc/Fipe Last Update: 18/02/2016 Methodology available in
36 Sales & Offer Reference Month Period Considered VSO trimestral jan/ feb/ mar/ apr/14 Fev-Apr/ % may/14 Mar-May/ % jun/14 Apr-Jun/ % jul/14 May-Jul/ % aug/14 Jun-Aug/ % sep/14 Jul-Sep/ % oct/14 Aug-Oct/ % nov/14 Sep-Nov/ % dec/14 Oct-Dez/ % jan/15 Nov/2014-Jan/ % feb/15 Dec/2014-Feb/ % mar/15 Jan-Mar/ % apr/15 Fev-Apr/ % may/15 Mar-May/ % jun/15 Apr-Jun/ % jul/15 May-Jul/ % aug/15 Jun-Aug/ % sep/15 Jul-Sep/ % oct/15 Aug-Oct/ % nov/15 Sep-Nov/ % dec/15 Oct-Dec/ % Source: Abrainc/Fipe Last Update: 18/02/2016 Methodology available in
37 Deliveries Reference Month Period Considered Unidades entregues jan/14 - fev/14 - mar/14 Jan-Mar/ apr/14 Feb-Apr/ may/14 Mar-May/ jun/14 Apr-Jun/ jul/14 May-Jul/ aug/14 Jun-Aug/ sep/14 Jul-Sep/ oct/14 Aug-Oct/ nov/14 Sep-Nov/ dec/14 Oct-Dec/ jan/15 Nov/2014-Jan/ feb/15 Dec/2014-Feb/ mar/15 Jan-Mar/ apr/15 Feb-Apr/ may/15 Mar-May/ jun/15 Apr-Jun/ jul/15 May-Jul/ aug/15 Jun-Aug/ sep/15 Jul-Sep/ oct/15 Aug-Oct/ nov/15 Sep-Nov/ dec/15 Oct-Dec/ Source: Abrainc/Fipe Last Update: 18/02/2016 Methodology available in
38 I research therefore I know Heitor Kuser The key to success in business is to perceive where the world is heading to and get there first Bill Gates Some people use statistics in the same way as drunks use light poles more for support than for illumination Andrew Long An approximate reply for the right problem is worth much more than an exact reply for an approximate problem John Wilder Tukey I think therefore I am - René Descarte I research therefore I know Heitor Kuser
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