Kempen & Co Spanish Property Seminar Madrid 26th June, 2014
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1 Kempen & Co Spanish Property Seminar Madrid 26th June, 2014
2 SCHIBSTED CLASSIFIED MEDIA Leading online classifieds business in Europe 29 countries employees 525 M turnover
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5 OUR FAMILY IN SPAIN UU 30 million visits/month UU 16 million visits/month UU 13 million visits/month UU 9 million visits/month UU visits/month UU: unique users Source: Comscore
6 Main figures Our Real Estate Index Our vision on Residential market Rental market
7 MAIN FIGURES Experience: Founded in 1999 The largest housing offering in internet: properties in Spain One of the most visited property websites: 5,1 milions users/ month 7 out of 10 Real State websites users visited Fotocasa.es last year
8 OUR REPORTS 1,0% 0,0% -1,0% -2,0% -3,0% -4,0% -5,0% -6,0% -3,1% -4,8% Quarterly progress -2,2% -3,8% 3T 4T 1T 2T 3T 4T 1T 2T 3T 4T 1T 2T 3T 4T 1T 2T 3T 4T 1T 2T 3T 4T 1T 2T 3T 4T 1T -1,1% Index on price of housing for sale Launched in January 2005 It is based on second-hand properties prices in Spain It measures intended price of sale Data by region, province, municipality and district Goal: to become the indicator of reference for the evolution of Spanish housing prices
9 In 2007 Fotocasa created the rental housing price index, Is the only index in the market that offers monthly data It is also published quarterly and anually Data by region, province, municipality and district
10 We are a reference The International Monetary Fund used the information published in fotocasa.es in some of its studies of the Spanish economy. REUTERS includes our index in the Datastream Thomson Reuters, a powerhouse platform on economic and financial content over 170 countries.
11 Our index reflects market trends slightly before other statistics Quarterly evolution of housing prices in fotocasa.es vs selling price of private houses in Fomento's Ministry Maximum price fotocasa 2T /m Maximum price Fomento's Ministry 1T /m [VALOR] /m /m T 2T 3T 4T 1T 2T 3T 4T 1T 2T 3T 4T 1T 2T 3T 4T 1T 2T 3T 4T 1T 2T 3T 4T 1T 2T 3T 4T 1T 2T 3T 4T 1T 2T 3T 4T 1T Ministerio 2008de Fomento 2009 fotocasa.es
12 It happened again 15% Quarterly evolution of housing prices in fotocasa.es vs selling price of private houses in INE 10% 5% 1 Q 2014 evolution in FOTOCASA: -1,1% 0% -5% -10% 1Q 2010 evolution in INE: -1,70% -15% -20% 1T 2T 3T 4T 1T 2T 3T 4T 1T 2T 3T 4T 1T 2T 3T 4T 1T 2T 3T 4T 1T 2T 3T 4T 1T 2T 3T 4T 1T INE FOTOCASA
13 OUR VISION OF RESIDENTIAL MARKET
14 Last years: lack of good news No credit Mortgages approvals in 2013 fell 28%: mortgages were approved, three times less than in 2009 or 2010 No activity In houses were sold versus transactions in 2007 (INE) No end Housing prices have fallen more than 40% from their peak (Fotocasa) No demand Strong imbalance between offer and demand: about housing stock (Ministerio de Fomento 2012)
15 ..but in the last months: some positive signs Home sales are rising 30,0% INE: Home Purchase 23% 70,0% Consejo Notariado: Home Purchase 62% 20,0% 50,0% 42% 39% 10,0% 6% 30,0% 0,0% 10,0% 6% 11% -10,0% -8% -10% -3% -10,0% -3% -20,0% -15% -30,0% -19% -23% -30,0% -28% -50,0% -51% -40,0% sep oct nov dic ene feb mar abr -70,0% sept oct nov dic ene feb mar abr
16 Credit is comming back. but slowly
17 Mortgage approvals grew in March for the first time since 2010 (INE) 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Consejo del Notariado: Mortgages 60% 42% 46% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% -30% -35% 25% -31% -23% INE: Mortagages -27% -32% -32% -33% [VALOR] sept oct nov dic ene feb mar Notaries data show this positive trend since last January -20% -40% -13% -14% -21% -60% -80% -55% sept oct nov dic ene feb mar abr
18 ene feb mar abr may jun jul ago sep oct nov dic ene feb mar abr may jun jul ago sep oct nov dic ene feb mar abr may Housing prices fall, but in a lower level 10,0% 5,0% 0,0% -5,0% -10,0% -15,0% 7,7% -1,1% -3,8% -6,6% -8,7% -10% -10,5% -8,5% Source: fotocasa.es 0,0% -2,0% Annual evolution from 2006 since 2013 Interannual evolution -4,0% -6,0% -8,0% -10,0% -12,0% -14,0% -5,3% -7,6% -8,3% -9,6% -10,5% -11,8% Source: fotocasa.es
19 Housing price interannual evolution May 2013
20 Housing price interannual evolution May 2014
21 And in some areas prices start to grow BARCELONA +5,5% +0,8% +7,4% +3,3%
22 And in some areas prices start to grow MADRID +2,7% +1,1% +1%
23 More positive data 35% of those who bought a house in the last year have done so because they believe that prices have stabilized 47% of Spanish people believe that buying a home is a long term investment 73% of tenants prefer buying to renting 63% believe that a home is the best inheritance that can be left to children 52% of people who rent say they would buy a house in a future
24 Spanish Residential market On the road to recovery?
25 But be carefull Unemployment rate 30,0% 26,9% 25,9% 24,2% 25,0% 19,8% 21,1% 20,0% 17,2% Unemployment rate is very high: 25,9% 15,0% 10,0% 5,0% 0,0% 11,2% 2T 3T 4T 1T 2T 3T 4T 1T 2T 3T 4T 1T 2T 3T 4T 1T 2T 3T 4T 1T 2T 3T 4T 1T Plummetting wages 6,0% 5,0% 4,0% 3,0% 2,0% 1,0% 0,0% -1,0% -2,0% -3,0% -4,0% Source: INE 4,1% 5,3% Labour costs 2,7% Limited credit 1,6% -3,2% 2,1% -0,2% 1T 2T 3T 4T 1T 2T 3T 4T 1T 2T 3T 4T 1T 2T 3T 4T 1T 2T 3T 4T 1T 2T 3T 4T 1T 2T 3T 4T 1T Source: INE
26 RENTAL MARKET
27 Things are changing Rental population is growing in Spain Spanish residential distribution 2011: 15,3% 19,3% 16,9% 63,8% Property Rental Parents Source: fotocasa.es 2013: 19,3%
28 Rental has a more positive view within the Spanish population 7 out of 10 think is a good option after the crisis 4 out of 10 consider renting means throwing away money 2011: 6 out of 10 56% young people prefer living in a rented house More interest in Rental market Source:Fotocasa.es 50% Fotocasa users look for rent 50% users look for houses to buy
29 Rental market, a dinamic market As a house owner, did you manage to rent in 2013? 65% of owners rented a house in % 65 % YES NO How long did it take you? 100% 90% 86% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% On average, it takes 5 months to rent house 20% 10% 0% From 0 to 6 months 10% From 7 to 12 months 2% 1% From 13 to 24 months Over 24 months Source: Fotocasa report on Spanish owners experience in Sales and Rentals
30 As a house owner, did you manage to sell in 2013? Only 9% of owners sold a house in % YES NO 91% How long did it take you? 45% 40% 39% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 17% 19% 25% On averge, it takes 13 months to sell a house 10% 5% 0% From 0 to 6 months From 7 to 12 months From 13 to 24 months Over 24 months Source: Fotocasa report on Spanish owners experience in Sales and Rentals
31 Did you have to reduce the price to rent your house? 44% YES 56% NO 56% of landlords who rented a house in 2013 had to negociate a lower price On average, they had to reduce the intended rental price by 120 euros, the equivalent to a reduction of 11% in the original price
32 Did you have to reduce the selling price? 10% YES NO 90% of owners who sold a house in 2013 had to drop the price 90% On average, they had to reduce the intended purchase price by euros, the equivalent to a reduction of 18% in the original price
33
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