Minneapolis St. Paul Residential Real Estate Index

Transcription

1 University of St. Thomas Minneapolis St. Paul Residential Real Estate Index October 2017

2 About the Report: The University of St Thomas Residential Real Estate Index has been developed by the Shenehon Center for Real Estate at the University of St. Thomas, Opus College of Business to correct the overstatement of housing price decline reported by the S&P Case-Shiller Price Index for the Minneapolis St. Paul metropolitan area. Rather than a single index or price representative of all homes, the UST Residential Real Estate Index includes the price of homes in three sub-markets: traditional sales, short sales and foreclosure sales as well as a nine variable composite index for measuring market health for each category based on a three-month moving average. October 2017: The Chronic Shortage of Homes for Sale Continues Fundamental Changes in Single Family Home Ownership Suggest That This Will Be the New Normal The Effect of More Institutional Ownership of Single Family Rental Homes There have been a number of reasons cited for the persistent shortage of existing single family homes for sale. Some of these reasons are surging demand, low interest rates and weak home construction. Builders are still operating at well below pre-recession construction levels, and that doesn't even account for pent-up demand from the housing crisis and growing household formation. However, there is one other factor for the shortage that has not received as much attention. Nationally, over the past five years, the single family rental home has become its own institutional asset class with over $50B invested by the large players (amounting to over 250,000 homes). Companies that scooped up foreclosures and rented them out during and after the recession are staying in the rental game. Despite rising prices, institutional investors continue to buy single-family rentals. Investors are willing to accept much smaller returns, says Steve Hovland, director of research for HomeUnion, a real estate investment management firm. A volatile stock market has made investors wary. Single-family rental housing is becoming a more attractive investment option. As institutional owners develop more sophisticated and efficient methods to manage a scattered site rental portfolio, they are able to offer better returns to investors. In 2016, institutional investors such as Invitation Homes and American Homes 4 Rent purchased record numbers of single-family homes. During the first half of 2016, institutional investors bought 2.9 percent of all of the single-family homes sold in the U.S. That s up from 2.6 percent in 2015, according to RealtyTrac, which identifies an institutional investor as an entity that buys more than 10 rental houses a year. If you apply that 2.9% average to the Twin Cities market, 1,770 of the 61,055 homes sold in 2016 were bought by institutional investors. Since the business model of these institutional investors is to hold these homes as long term assets these homes are removed from the number of homes that would be potentially available for purchase. If you look at the chart below Page 1

3 of Homes for Sale in the Twin Cities, you can see that after 2011 the number of homes for sale has been running well below historical levels. This coincides with the time that the intuitional acquisition of single rental homes was developing into to a recognized institutional grade real estate asset class. Today, 1 in 10 homes in the United States are single-family rentals which accounts to over 13mm homes and nearly 40% of all rental properties in the country. Is this the only cause of the chronic short supply of homes for sale? No, but it is certainly a contributing factor that did not exist 10 years ago. Market Summary Despite a moderate decrease in median sale price between September and October ($247,000 to $244,000, respectively), the Twin Cities housing market continues to show year over year gains in sale prices of 6.09 percent in October On the supply side, in October 2017, there were 11,249 homes available for sale, 17.7% less than in October A high median annual growth rate in median sale prices and historically low supply continue to dominate the market. The number of homes sold in October 2017 was 5,004 a decrease of 376 (6.9%) compared to last month and a gain of 26 sales compared to October Distressed sales accounted for only 2.96% of the 5,004 recorded home sales in October, similar to percentages observed before the market crash in New listings were up, at 5,506. It is a slight increase from the 5,341 recorded in October As has been the case for the past 12 months, the shortage remains most acute in low to moderately priced homes. The changes observed in late summer and early fall are beginning to indicate that the supply and demand sides of the housing market are becoming more balanced. It is expected that the annual growth in median home sale prices for 2017 will range from 5 to 6 percent. Page 2

4 $270,000 Traditional Home (non-distressed) - Median Sale Price $250,000 $230,000 $210,000 $190,000 $170,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec October 2017 Market Data 1. Median Sale Price Oct 2016 Sept 2017 Oct 2017 Monthly % Change Annual % Change Traditional $234,900 $249,500 $246, % 5.11% Short Sale $195,000 $185,000 $175, % -9.79% Foreclosed $145,000 $165,500 $175, % 21.00% 2. Closed Sales 4,978 5,380 5, % 0.52% Traditional 4,213 5,209 4, % 15.07% Short Sale % % Foreclosed % % 3. % Distressed Sales 5.16% 3.07% 2.96% -3.56% % 4. Days on Market % % 5. Month s Supply % % 6. New Listings 5,341 6,474 5, % 3.09% 7. Pending Sales 4,591 4,846 4, % 3.99% 8. Homes for Sale 13,678 12,774 11, % % 9. % of Original Price 97.90% 99.00% 98.80% -0.20% 0.92% Page 3

5 The UST Residential Real Estate Indices The following indices are based on a rolling 3 month average of the preceding three months. The October index data presented is based on available data from August 2017 to October At a level of 1212, the October UST Residential Real Estate Traditional Sale Composite Index continued to decline this month, registering a 1.3% monthly decrease compared to 1228 in September. Despite this month to month decrease, the 2017 October index (1212) increased 5.1% since last year. The current index level is a reflection of the continuing trend of a shortage in the supply of homes for sale and a seasonal decrease in the number of homes sold. The UST Residential Real Estate Short Sale Composite Market Health Index was 1028 in October 2017, down 0.8% from the 1036 recorded in September. Similarly, the Short Sale index decreased 0.7% compared to one year ago. Only 22 short sales were reported in October, representing 0.4% of total metro-area sales. The UST Residential Real Estate Foreclosure Composite Index for October 2017 remained consistent with the previous month at 944. Current foreclosure index levels have increased 10.5% since October Total foreclosures (126 recorded) represented 2.4% of total sales reported in October. 1,300 Minneapolis / St. Paul Residential Housing Indices 1,200 1,100 1, Jun-05 Oct-05 Feb-06 Jun-06 Oct-06 Feb-07 Jun-07 Oct-07 Feb-08 Jun-08 Oct-08 Feb-09 Jun-09 Oct-09 Feb-10 Jun-10 Oct-10 Feb-11 Jun-11 Oct-11 Feb-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Feb-13 June-13 Oct-13 Feb-14 June-14 Oct-14 Feb-15 Jun-15 Oct-15 Feb-16 June-16 Oct-16 Feb-17 June-17 Oct-17 UST Traditional Sales UST Short Sales UST Foreclosures S&P Case-Shiller Page 4

6 About the Authors Herb Tousley, CCIM, M.B.A. Herb is the director of the Real Estate Programs at the University of St. Thomas, Opus College of Business. His research specialties include housing studies, affordable housing and commercial market analysis. Herb received a Bachelor of Science degree in business from Colorado State University and an M.B.A. from the University of St. Thomas. Stefan Snyder, UST M.B.A. Candidate 2018 Stefan is pursuing an MBA at the University of St. Thomas, Opus College of Business. He holds a B.A. with a double major in Biology and Classics and a minor in Chemistry from Luther College in Decorah, Iowa. Stefan currently serves as the marketing intern for the University of St. Thomas Real Estate program. Real Estate at the Opus College of Business Shenehon Center for Real Estate, The Shenehon Center for Real Estate serves as a resource to the commercial, industrial, residential and corporate segments of the real estate industry and the community to advance the public interest in real estate issues. For more than 15 years, the center has supported improvement in real estate leader- ship and management by creating and developing real estate leadership and management programs for undergraduate and graduate degree programs and professional development, providing a neutral forum to convene real estate professionals to share best practices, supporting and working with local real estate industry organizations, conducting real estate research, and developing mechanisms to transfer leading edge business practices to the real estate industry. Graduate Certificate in Real Estate, The Graduate Certificate in Real Estates one of six graduate business degree programs offered through the Opus College of Business. Certificate students will gain fundamental skills in market analysis, valuation, investment property analysis, financial modeling and the development process. The program is designed for students who have earned a bachelor's degree and who wish to obtain a foundation for a career in real estate, as well as for those who hold a graduate degree but seek education in a new career area or specialization within the industry. The certificate program consists of six graduate-level courses (16.5 credit hours). Students take the same graduate-level concentration courses as MBA or master s degree students. Real Estate MBA, The University of St. Thomas MBA in Real Estate is a course of study for students in the new UST Evening Flex MBA program who wish to earn a MBA with a real estate concentration. As a part of the new St. Thomas Evening Flex MBA program students would take the normal MBA required classes (22 1/2 credits) and take most of their electives (16 ½ or 18 credits) as real estate classes. The real estate classes are the same classes that are required for the Graduate Certificate in Real Estate. The only other difference is that students would take Real Estate Law as a substitute for Business Law. Upon graduation a student would receive a diploma that would be a Master of Business Administration from St. Thomas along with a Graduate Certificate in Real Estate. Bachelor of Science Degree in Real Estate, The Bachelor of Science Degree in Real Estate is one of 13 undergraduate concentration areas in the Opus College of Business. This four-year degree pro- gram provides students with a background in general business and real estate theory and practice. Students study the many factors involved in property assessment and sales, how they change and how these changes Page 5

7 affect real estate and individuals. Recent graduates hold positions in the government, nonprofit, construction and private business sectors. Page 6