RETAIL: INCREASED RENT BUT DECREASED OCCUPANCY
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- Dayna Gardner
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2 QMR Brief - HCMC GDP growth achieved 7.4 in Q1/218, the highest in Q1 for the last 1 years. The main driver was the industry and construction sector, followed by services. Inflation was well-controlled with CPI increasing by 2.8 year on year (YoY). Strong export value of US$54billion resulted in a trade surplus of US$1.3 billion. The EU is the largest export market, followed by the USA. International visitors continued to trend up with 4.2 million arrivals, up 31 YoY. Total registered FDI was US$5.7billion, with Korea as the largest contributor. Disbursed FDI reached US$3.8billion, up 7 YoY.
3 Mil VND/m 2 /mth Mill VND/m²/mth Mil VND/m²/mth QMR Brief Hanoi RETAIL: INCREASED RENT BUT DECREASED OCCUPANCY Total stock was approximately 1.3 million m², stable quarter-onquarter (QoQ) and up 4.2 year on year (YoY). Over the past four years, stock has grown at an average 12.2 pa. Average ground floor rents increased.4 QoQ while occupancy decreased -1.2 ppts QoQ, mainly attributed to the changes in shopping centre segment. The CBD registered a softer performance whereas the East area had improved performance. To 22, eighteen new projects are scheduled to launch, cumulatively providing 41, m². The majority of future supply are components in residential complexes in the West Avg. GF gross rent Department store FIGURE 1 Shopping centre Retail podium OFFICE: CBD GRADE A CONTINUED TO IMPROVE Total stock was over 1.6 million m², up 1.6 QoQ and 2 YoY after two new Grade B projects in the Secondary area came online..8 Avg. gross rent FIGURE 2 1 Overall market performance was relatively stable with average rent increase of.6 QoQ and occupancy decrease of -.5 ppts QoQ. Grade B registered the most improved occupancy while Grade A saw the most improved rents, particularly in non-cbd areas. Ha Noi welcomed 5,1 newly-established businesses in Q1/218 and targets a 12 growth in 218. The remaining three quarters of 218 will see the entry of thirteen new projects. supplying over 235, m², mostly in the West. SERVICED APARTMENT: HIGHEST PRICES IN THE WEST Total stock from 5 projects went up 1 QoQ and 19 YoY due to an increase in Grade A stock and a pending Grade C project. From 218 onwards, 1,4 units from 17 projects will become.8 FIGURE 3 Average rent 1 available. Average occupancy was down -.9 ppts QoQ and -3.4 ppts YoY..6 Average room rates (ARR) increased.6 QoQ but decreased 5.6 YoY. The West had the highest rent US$32.4/m²/mth while.4 8 Secondary projects were 9 occupied. In Q1/218, implemented FDI to Viet Nam was US$3.88 billion,.2 up 7.2 YoY.. 6
4 Mil VND/room/night QMR Brief Hanoi HOTEL: 5-STAR PERFORMS THE BEST One new hotel providing 5 rooms was officially graded 3-star. FIGURE 4 Stock was approximately 1, rooms, up 1 QoQ and 9 YoY. ARR Average occupancy slightly decreased -1 ppts QoQ but up 4 ppts 4 1 YoY. ARR was down -3 QoQ and -7 YoY. Average revenue of five-star hotels was US$111/room/night, double that of four-star and triple that of three-star According to the Ha Noi Statistics Office, in the first two months of there were approximately one million international visitors to 4 Ha Noi, a 31 YoY increase. With 44 projects coming online from 218, pressure is set to 1 2 increase across all grades. 5-star 4-star 3-star APARTMENT: DECREASED NEW LAUNCHES Eleven new projects and next phases of fourteen active projects FIGURE 5 launched 5,53 units, down -21 QoQ and -4 YoY. The primary supply was more than 24, units, stable YoY. Tu Liem 7 Avg. price Absorption 3 and Hoang Mai districts continued leading the market Sales were down -15 QoQ and -11 YoY. Absorption rate declined -3 ppts both QoQ and YoY to 24 percent. Grade B drove demand with a 61 share. Average asking price was US$1,25/m², stable QoQ but down - 8 YoY. In 218, more than 2, units will come online from 38 projects, most of which are Grade B. Mil VND/m VILLA/ TOWNHOUSE: PERFORMANCE TEMPORARILY DECREASED Total stock was 41,99 dwellings, increasing 1.7 QoQ and FIGURE YoY. Ha Dong continues to lead with a 24.3 market share, followed by Hoai Duc. Three new projects and six new phases supplied nearly 67 dwellings. Primary stock was approximately 3,19 dwellings, down QoQ but up 13 YoY Long Bien Tu Liem Hoang Mai Hai Ba Trung Sales were down -43 QoQ and -3 YoY. Absorption was 25, down -1.6 ppts QoQ but up 4.7 ppts YoY. From Q2/218 to 219, new supply will be approximately 11, Gia Lam Dong Anh Me Linh dwellings from 23 new projects, mostly located in Dong Anh, Gia Dan Phuong Lam, Dan Phuong, and Tu Liem districts.
5 Mil VND/m 2 /mth Mil VND/m 2 /mth Mil VND/m 2 /mth QMR Brief - HCMC RETAIL: SOFT PERFORMANCE IN NON-CBD Total stock was over 1.2 million m 2 with 73, m 2 added from the entry of three new supermarkets and two shopping centers. Three closures and three changed uses withdrew 39,2 m 2. Average gross rent decreased slightly -1 quarter-on-quarter (QoQ). Average occupancy had a slight decrease of -1ppts due to new supply in non-cbd with low rent and occupancy. New fashion brands and international F&B entries replaced unappealing tenants. Sales focused on F&B, clothes and household appliances. Automated convenience and click-to-brick become popular. E- commerce continuously attracted investment, with Amazons entry announcement a highlight FIGURE 1 Average rent Department store Shopping centre Retail podium 6 OFFICE: STRONG PERFORMANCE Four new projects including one Grade B and three Grade C provided 53, m 2 to the market. Total stock was over 1.7 million m 2, up 4 QoQ and 1 YoY. Performance remained positive. Average gross rent increased 8 YoY. The surge resulted from major increase of Grade B rent an alternative to Grade A. Average occupancy was stable at 96 percent. By 22, the market is expected to have approximately 44, m 2 from all grades. In the next two years, no Grade A supply will enter the market FIGURE 2 Average rent Ocupancy SERVICE APARTMENT: LARGE FUTURE SUPPLY Three new projects and one closure for renovation, increased total stock by 6 QoQ and 16 YoY. Total stock was more than 5,1 units..8 FIGURE 3 Average rent 1 New projects had an impact on overall market performance. The.6 75 average occupancy was down -3ppts QoQ and rent increased slightly 1 QoQ due to low occupancy and high rent from a new project Expected large future supply of more than 1, units in the last nine months of 218 will pressure market performance..
6 Dwellings Mil VND/room/night QMR Brief - HCMC HOTEL: RECOVERY Stock was up 2 YoY to over 16,5 rooms from 133 projects. Average occupancy was approximately 74, up 6ppts YoY. The average room rate (ARR) was US$83/room/night, up 4 YoY due to increases in all segments for the first time in the three years. 3 2 ARR FIGURE In 218, HCMC set a new target of welcoming 7.5 million international visitors, an increase of 18 YoY. Till 22, 14 new projects will supply approximately 3,5 rooms. More than 3 rooms from four existing 3 to 4-star hotels are awaiting rating approval. 1 5-star 4-star 3-star 4 2 APARTMENT: RECORD-BREAKING NEW SUPPLY Over 1,5 units from 13 new projects and the next phases of nine active projects were launched. Primary supply declined - 13 QoQ and -32 YoY to 28,6 units. Soft performance across all grades gave a total of 13,5 sales, decreasing -11 QoQ but increasing strongly 51 YoY. Grade C sales still dominated the market, with 62 of total sales. Absorption at 48 was up 1ppts QoQ and 26ppts YoY. Till 22, supply is expected to be more than 122, units from 93 projects. District 9 is expected to provide the largest share with 32 percent. Grade C is estimated to have the highest proportion, 61 of future supply. Mil VND/m FIGURE 5 Average price Absorption rate VILLA/ TOWNHOUSE: LIMITED TOWNHOUSE SUPPLY Four new projects and four new phases supplied over 77 dwellings. Primary stock was approximately 1,47 dwellings, down -28 QoQ and -4 YoY. 1, 8 FIGURE 6 Townhouses Villas Transactions were down 36 QoQ but up 39 YoY. Absorption was 61, down -7 ppts QoQ but increased 26 ppts YoY. New projects accounted for 4 sales. 6 4 Primary land plots supplied more than 2,7 plots this quarter. The segment performed strongly with 71 absorption. District 9 led with 35 sales. From Q2/218 to 22, new supply will be approximately 17, dwellings/plots. Eastern districts will dominate with 6 market share. 2 dist. 9 dist. 2 dist. 7 Nha Thu Can dist. 1 Binh dist. Others Be Duc Gio Chanh 12 Others: D8,1, Binh Thanh, Binh Tan, Tan Phu, Cu Chi
7
8 QMR Brief Hanoi
9 QMR Brief - HCMC
10 QMR Brief Hanoi
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