Quarterly Market Briefing Vietnam Q4/2016

Transcription

1 Savills Research - Subscription form Savills Market Research Vietnam Quarterly Market Briefing Vietnam Q4/2016 Macro Indicators Value YoY Growth Rate (%) GDP growth rate (%) 6.2% -0.5ppt Retail sales (Billion $) % Currency Exchange Rate (VND/USD) 22, % Trade surplus (Billion $) +2.6 N/A International visitors (Million) % Registered FDI (Billion $) % FDI disbursement (Billion $) % Newly established businesses (Unit) 101, % - Real estate (Unit) 3, % CPI (%) N/A +4.7% Mortgage rate (%) 11% +1ppt Credit growth (%) 18.7% +1.7ppt Foreign Reserve (Billion $) 41 N/A In 2016, GDP growth achieved 6.2% with the real estate industry expanding 4% to a 5-year high. New annual records were set in foreign-exchange reserve, FDI disbursement and newly established businesses. Real estate ranked 1st in newly established businesses with over 3,100 registered and ranked 2nd in newly registered FDI capital with US$1.5 billion. The total retail sales of goods was more than US$117 billion, up 10% YoY. Viet Nam recorded the highest ever growth of international arrivals with over 10 million visitors, increasing 26% YoY.

2 QMR Brief Ho Chi Minh City Q4/2016 RETAIL: Retail Keeps Growing At Year End Retail stock was approximately 1.1 million m 2, increasing 19,200 m 2 from one new shopping centre and five supermarkets, 1% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) and 15% year-on-year (YoY). FIGURE 1 The average gross rent decreased -1% QoQ, occupancy increased 1% QoQ with additional short term tenants for the year-end shopping season. Shopping centre occupancy was stable QoQ, retail podium increased 3 ppts and department store decreased -1 ppt. At year-end, households typically spend more on household appliances and FMCG in anticipation of the Tet holidays. A gradual shift of the dependent proportion to a balanced demographic has availed new opportunities for entertainment, recreational activities and personal services. OFFICE: Stable Performance Despite New Supply In Q4/2016, one Grade C (Nhac Viet) and two Grade B (Mapletree Business Centre, Sai Gon Giai Phong) projects came online whilst four existing projects, including two Grade C and two Grade A (Bitexco Financial Tower, Saigon Tower) supplied additional stock. The HCMC office stock was 1,620,000 m 2, up 3% QoQ and YoY. FIGURE 2 Overall performance was stable despite the additional stock. The average occupancy was 97%, up 2 ppts YoY, while the average rent increased 3% YoY. New take-up was predominantly drawn from Grade B projects, accounting for 96% of all newly leased office space. Grade A was the best performer of the year with average gross rents increasing 5% YoY to VND 1,100,000/m 2 /month (US$48/m 2 /month). SERVICED APARTMENT: Rise in Short-Term Leasing In Q4/2016, one new Grade B project in district 3 entered the market whilst one Grade C project in district 12 closed for renovations. Serviced apartment stock decreased -1% QoQ but grew 3% YoY to 4,510 units from 83 projects. FIGURE 3 The average occupancy increased 3 ppts QoQ and 4 ppts YoY to 87%, setting a six-year high. Much of the contribution was from increased short-term stays in December, accounting for up to 50% of total Grade A & B leased units. The average rent was VND 550,000/m 2 /month (US$24/m 2 /month), up 2% QoQ and 6% YoY due to rent increases across all grades. Newly launched mid to high-end projects have focused on smaller apartments to meet the demand of single expats and couples. This trend will continue for the future supply, anticipated to reach 2,650 units by 2019.

3 QMR Brief Ho Chi Minh City Q4/2016 HOTEL: Record Breaking International Arrivals In Q4/2016, one 3-star hotel completed renovations and five new 3-star hotels supplied more than 440 rooms. The HCMC hotel stock was more than 15,900 rooms from 130 projects, up 3% QoQ and 8% YoY. FIGURE 4 The average occupancy was approximately 69%, up 3 ppts QoQ. The average room rate (ARR) was VND 1,890,000/room/night (US$83/room/night), up 1% QoQ due to ARR increases in all segments, but decreasing -3% YoY. In 2016, HCMC set a new record of 5.2 million international visitors, increasing 13% YoY and accounting for 52% of arrivals to Viet Nam. From 2017 to 2019, 16 new projects will supply approximately 3,500 rooms. More than 700 rooms from five existing 3 to 4-star hotels are awaiting rating approval. APARTMENT: Renewed Mid-end Sales In Q4/2016, 18 new projects and the next phases of 4 active projects were launched, supplying more than 8,300 units and recording an increase of 11% QoQ. There were approximately 45,200 available units across all grades. FIGURE 5 Sales reached 10,200 units, increasing 36% QoQ and 32% YoY. Absorption was 22%, increasing 4 ppts QoQ and 2 ppts YoY due to good Grade B and C performances. Grade A had the highest absorption rate at 26 percent. Grade B sales increased significantly by 61% QoQ From Q1/2017 to 2018, over 60,000 units are expected to enter the market. VILLA & TOWNHOUSE: Sustained Landed Property Demand Three new projects and the next phases of three existing projects provided approximately 550 dwellings to the primary market. The primary stock reached approximately 3,000 dwellings, decreasing -22% QoQ but increasing 55% YoY. FIGURE 6 In Q4/2016, due to limited new launches, villa and townhouse sales decreased -18% QoQ, with townhouse sales accounting for a 70% share. Absorption was 33%, up 1 ppt QoQ and 2 ppts YoY. Districts 2 and Nha Be accounted for the most sales. Medium to large townhouses of 90 to 120 m 2 continued to be well absorbed. There was high demand for projects with favorable payment schemes.

4 QMR Brief Hanoi Q4/2016 RETAIL: Rents Maintain Downward Trend In Q4/2016, the total retail stock was approximately 1,200,000 m², up 2% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) and 10% year-on-year (YoY) due to the entry of two new shopping centres and one retail podium, cumulatively providing approximately 56,000 m². FIGURE 1 Ground level rents decreased QoQ and YoY across all retail segments to a four-year low. Average occupancy increased 1.1 percentage points (ppts) QoQ but decreased -3.0 ppts YoY. While shopping centre occupancy decreased -1.3 ppts QoQ, both department store (0.5 ppt) and retail podium (13.9 ppts) occupancy increased. New entrants performed well while fierce competition forced existing projects to either renovate or close. From 2017 to 2018, new retail supply will be concentrated in the West and Secondary areas. OFFICE: Limited Grade A Vacancy in the West One project entered the market supplying approximately 9,700 m 2. Ha Noi office stock reached 1,640,000 m 2, increasing 1% QoQ and 4% YoY. In Q1/2017, two projects will launch, cumulatively supplying approximately 70,000 m 2. FIGURE 2 The average rent was stable QoQ but increased 1.1% YoY, while the average occupancy increased 1 ppt QoQ and 4 ppts YoY. Grade A occupancy in the Secondary area sharply increased due to landlord incentives. In the West, Grade A far outpaced Grade B with vacancy of just 6 percent. According to the National Business Registration Portal, in 2016, Ha Noi was the most dynamic commercial centre with over 22,000 newly registered businesses, increasing 19% YoY. SERVICED APARTMENT: Increased Occupancy but Lower ARR In Q4/2016, due to the entry of four new projects, serviced apartment stock reached 4,028 units, up 5% QoQ and 9% YoY. FIGURE 3 The average occupancy exceeded 87%, increasing 0.4 ppt both QoQ and YoY. The average room rate (ARR) was down -2.1% QoQ and -2.4% YoY due to sharp Grade B decrease of -4.8% QoQ and -4.5% YoY. Take-up was positive across all grades totalling more than 190 units. In 2017, three new projects supplying 765 units are expected to come online. From 2018 onwards, six of seven expected projects will enter the market with approximately 800 units.

5 QMR Brief Hanoi Q4/2016 HOTEL: Peak Season Increases QoQ Performance Hotel stock increased 1% QoQ after the re-entry of one 3-star hotel and the withdrawal of another 3-star for renovations but decreased -3% YoY. Sofitel Plaza Ha Noi was officially rebranded Pan Pacific Ha Noi. FIGURE 4 The average occupancy was up 8 ppts QoQ due to the peak season but relatively stable YoY. The ARR increased 12% QoQ and 9% YoY. RevPAR increased 27% QoQ and 9% YoY. Ha Noi recorded 4,000,000 international arrivals in 2016, up 23% YoY and accounting for 40% of arrivals to Viet Nam. APARTMENT: More Supply at Year-End In Q4/2016, the total primary stock was 21,670 units, increasing 27% QoQ and 35% YoY. Nineteen freshly launched projects and twenty one newly launched projects supplied 10,280 units, increasing a significant 81% QoQ and 28% YoY. FIGURE 5 There were approximately 6,730 sales, increasing 19% QoQ and 5% YoY. The absorption rate decreased -2 ppts QoQ and -9 ppts YoY to 31%, while the average asking price increased 2% QoQ and 1% YoY to US$1,230/m 2. In 2017, approximately 77 projects will enter the market supplying over 50,000 units, much of which will be Grade B and come from Hoang Mai, Thanh Xuan, Tu Liem and Ha Dong. VILLA TOWNHOUSE: A Record Selling Quarter The total stock was approximately 35,000 dwellings, up 4.9% QoQ and 12.8% YoY. Four new projects and the fresh launches of four existing project supplied approximately 600 dwellings, of which villas accounted for 18 percent. Tu Liem, Ha Dong and Long Bien districts were the main suppliers, cumulatively accounting for a 50% supply share. FIGURE 6 Sales increased 129% QoQ to 766 units, of which 64% were townhouses. Dominating in sales this quarter were Tu Liem with 24% and Ha Dong with 23 percent. Villa and townhouse sales exceeded the former record set prior to In Q1/2017, more than 2,300 dwellings are expected to enter the market, mainly from Vingroup.

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