Quarterly Market Briefing Da Nang, Vietnam Q4/2016

Transcription

1 Savills Research - Subscription form Savills Market Research Vietnam Quarterly Market Briefing Da Nang, Vietnam Q4/216 Macro Indicators Value YoY Growth Rate (%) GDP growth rate (%) 6.2% -.5ppt Retail sales (Billion $) % Currency Exchange Rate (VND/USD) 22,8 -.8% Trade surplus (Billion $) +2.6 N/A International visitors (Million) 1 +26% Registered FDI (Billion $) 2.9-8% FDI disbursement (Billion $) % Newly established businesses (Unit) 11,1 +16% - Real estate (Unit) 3, % CPI (%) N/A +2.7% Mortgage rate (%) 11% +1ppt Credit growth (%) 18.7% +1.7ppt Foreign Reserve (Billion $) 41 N/A In 216, GDP growth achieved 6.2% with the Real Estate industry expanding 4% to a 5-year high. New annual records were set in foreign-exchange reserve, FDI disbursement and newly established businesses. Real Estate ranked 1st in newly established businesses with over 3,1 registered and ranked 2nd in newly registered FDI capital with US$1.5 billion. The total retail sales of goods was more than US$117 billion, up 1% YoY. Viet Nam recorded the highest ever growth of international arrivals with over 1 million visitors, increasing 26% YoY.

2 VND/room/night (million) % VND/m 2 (thousand) VND/m 2 /mth (thousand) QMR Brief Da Nang Q4/216 RETAIL: Softer Performance In Q4/216, the total retail stock was approximately 186, m², increasing 5.4% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) and 1.7% year-onyear (YoY) due to the reopening of Nguyen Kim supermarket after its three-quarter renovation. Hai Chau was the largest supplier with a 35% share, followed by Thanh Khe with 3 percent. The average ground floor rent decreased -7.9% QoQ and -4.2% YoY, while occupancy decreased -2.2 ppts QoQ and -1.7 ppts YoY. In 217, the market is expected to receive approximately 14,5 m². FIGURE 1 Occupancy rate GF average rent Retail Podium Shopping Centre Department Store 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % OFFICE: Lack of Grade A supply In Q4/216, the total office stock was approximately 85, m² from 24 buildings, decreasing -2% YoY as one project with over 1, m 2 was razed and removed from the market. Currently, there is only one Grade A office building in Da Nang. FIGURE HCMC Ha Noi Da Nang The average occupancy increased 7 ppts YoY to 93% but the average rent decreased -9 percent. To attract tenants, a number of buildings reduced rents by up to -3 percent. In 217, many large infrastructure projects are expected to complete in preparation for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meetings, bolstering further demand for office space HOTEL: Increased ARR in All Segments In Q4/216, the total hotel stock was approximately 9,3 rooms, FIGURE 3 up 5% QoQ due to the entry of four newly ranked 3 to 4-star hotels and 19% YoY. 6 ARR RevPAR Occupancy 1 The average occupancy was up 4 ppts YoY. The ARR was up 18% YoY due to increases in all segments. RevPAR was up 26% YoY Da Nang continues to establish itself as a competitive coastal location for both domestic and international tourists. In 216, there were 5,51, visitors, up 18% YoY, of which 1,66, were international, up 13% YoY In 217, nine 4 to 5-star hotels supplying approximately 2,2 rooms will come online. 5-star 4-star 3-star

3 Units QMR Brief Da Nang Q4/216 APARTMENT CONDOTEL: Growing Condotel Supply In Q4/216, the condotel stock was approximately 3,91 units from 1 projects, of which 1,325 remained in the primary. Son Tra was the largest supplier with a 5% share, closely followed by Ngu Hanh Son with 44 percent. The total apartment stock was 3,495 units from 15 projects, of which 52 remained in the primary. Ngu Hanh Son was the largest supplier with a 3% share of total stock, followed by Son Tra, Hai Chau and Thanh Khe. FIGURE 4 Apartment primary supply Sales Avrg. primary price VND/m² (million) Guaranteed returns are offered in many condotel projects presales programs. APEC 217 will likely increase condotel performance and spur a rush of investments. Son Tra Hai Chau Ngu Hanh Son SECOND-HOME VILLA: High Absorption In Q4/216, the total villa stock was 774 dwellings from 14 projects, of which 153 remained in the primary. Ngu Hanh Son was the largest supplier with 728 dwellings (94% share) from 12 projects, followed by Son Tra district with 46 dwellings (6% share) from 2 projects. FIGURE 5 6% Ngu Hanh Son As of Q4/216, the market-wide absorption was 8 percent. Among the 14 projects, 6 were fully sold. Son Tra Developer reputation, guaranteed returns and proximity to the beach were the key success factors of all projects. 94%

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5 About Savills Our Research and Consultancy Services are the most Over 22 years innovative in Vietnam Over 2.5 M. Savills Vietnam is the Leader in Media Exposure Established in Vietnam since 1995 The 1 st International Property Firm in the Country Discover our Strategic Research Tools sqm under management Savills Vietnam is recognized globally We have won multiple awards both globally and regionally #1 Number one agency in transaction volume with over US$1 M transacted each year Over 7 staff and growing We are larger than all our competitors combined AWARD WINNING INTERNATIONAL RECOGNITION Best Real Estate Agency in Vietnam for 8 consecutive years from 21 to 217 Best Property Consultancy in Vietnam for 8 consecutive years from 21 to 217 Best Real Estate Agency and Best Lettings Agency in Asia Pacific 216 to 217 Savills has topped the real estate agents/ advisors in the 216 UK Business Superbrand chart for the eighth consecutive year, ahead of all industry competitors. Savills has retained its title as The Times Graduate Employer of Choice for property for the ninth consecutive year. Savills Research Savills plc Troy Griffiths Deputy Managing Director Savills HCMC TGriffiths@savills.com.vn Do Thu Hang Associate Director, Advisory Services Savills Hanoi DThuHang@savills.com.vn Savills is a leading global real estate service provider listed on the London Stock Exchange. The company established in 1855, has a rich heritage with unrivalled growth. It is a company that leads rather than follows, and now has over 7 offices and associates throughout the Americas, Europe, Asia Pacific, Africa and the Middle East. This report is for general informative purposes only. It may not be published, reproduced or quoted in part or in whole, nor may it be used as a basis for any contract, prospectus, agreement or other document without prior consent. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, Savills accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from its use. The content is strictly copyright and reproduction of the whole or part of it in any form is prohibited without written permission from Savills Research.