Real Estate Market Report in May 2012

Transcription

1 Real Estate Information Portal- CafeF Land Main Contents Macro Economy 2 CPI in May continues low rise Trade deficit returned, FDI attraction remains difficult 29 trillion VND bailout package on tax exemption and reduction for businesses Deposit interest rate cap was lowered to 9%/year from June 11 A92 gasoline saw three reductions in retail price (1,900 VND) to 21,900 VND/litre Real Estate Market Report in May 2012 Infrastructure News 3 Building Hanoi-Ba Vi railway Hanoi to open to traffic Linh Dam-Thanh Xuan overhead road Ho Chi Minh City to build additional four flyover bridges Building four main roads in Thu Thiem urban zone News, Highlights 4 Hanoi builds property price index Compiled by Data Analysis and Editorial Division CafeF Land Add: 18th floor, VTC Online Building, 18 Tam Trinh, Hanoi Tel: Ext: 295 Fax: info@cafef.vn 120 trillion VND of public investments relieves real estate Do not develop urban zones along main road in Ba Vi district Quoc Cuong Gia Lai will discount apartments Market Overview 5 Apartment market still remained the selling price after falling about 25-30% Project ground land in Hanoi has started to see transactions Office rental charges in HCMC tend to fall Outstanding real estate projects 8 Golden Sponsor Land price table of typical projects 9 Updated photos on pace of projects 13 Appendix: Typical real estate projects 14 Page 1

2 MACRO ECONOMY Consumer price index (CPI) in May rose by 0.18% on month. This is the lowest rise versus the same period of previous years. CPI in May 2012 surged 2.78% from December 2011 and soared 8.34% compared to the same period last year. Average CPI in Jan-May increased 13.3% year on year. After a trade surplus of $78 million in Jan-April (official figures from General Department of Vietnam Customs), trade deficit in May was estimated at $700 million, or 7.7% of the total export turnover, resulting in a trade deficit in Jan-May at $622 million, or 1.5% of the total export turnover. Actualized investment capital from the state budget in May 2012 was estimated at trillion VND. Totally in Jan-May, the figures were trillion VND, equaling to 36.4% of the year s plan and increasing 4% y-o-y. Foreign direct investment (FDI) as of May 20, 2012 reached $5.329 billion, equivalent to 68.2% of the same period last year. Disbursed FDI in Jan-May was estimated at $4.5 billion, down 0.2% y-o-y. Solution package tax exemption, reduction and extension worth about 29 trillion VND: The government approved the Ministry of Finance (MoF) s proposal. However, Examination Board of the National Assembly (NA) s Economic Committee has not approved yet. Presently, the NA is conducting meeting and making final decision. 12 groups borrow 218 trillion VND at banks. Total loans of state-owned enterprises at banks reached more than 415 trillion VND. Denmark stops 3/4 ODA projects due to fraud. The misused money may be 12 billion VND. This occurred in the context of coming Consultative Group (CG) meeting in Quang Tri province. EU will aid $1 billion for Vietnam, including $324 million of non-refundable aids. In HCMC, total outstanding loans in the city till the end of May were estimated at trillion VND, up 0.4% on month and 1.6% on year. Loans in foreign currency reached trillion VND, accounting for 27.4% of total loans, down 8.2% on year. Loans in VND made up 72.6% of total loans, rising 5.8% on year. Medium and long term loans constituted 43.1%, down 2.1%, short term loans rose 4.6% yoy. In Hanoi, total outstanding loans in May were estimated at trillion VND, up 0.98% from April and rising 2.04% against December Short term loans increased 1.3% on month, medium and long term loans were up 0.5% on month and 4.4% on year. Trading value in interbank market in May reached trillion VND (22 trading sessions), or 77.8% of the trading turnover in April 2012 and only 67.5% of figure in March The decline resulted in strong fall of interest rate in the market, commonly at below 10%/year, short terms (overnight and one week) even dipped to 2%/year. There were only two tenders for government-backed bonds issued by the State Treasury in May with total successfully issued volume of trillion VND, or 82.8% of the raised volume in April. Yields of all tenors were below 10%/year and the State Treasury issued 500 billion bonds for 10-year tenor at the yield of 9.5%/year. On May 4, State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) issued Circular No14 ruling that short term lending interest rate cap in dong will be equal to dong deposit interest rate cap for above 1-month terms prescribed by central bank plus 3%/year for 4 prioritized sectors. On May 16, central bank issued Circular on refinancing in the relending form according to credit dossiers for credit institutions to support the temporary solvency and economic development in line with direction of the government in each period. On May 25, SBV issued Circular No16/2012/TT- NHNN guiding some contents of Decree No24/2012/NĐ-CP on gold trading management. On May 28, SBV issued a decision to lower deposit interest rate cap for from 1-month term and longer to 11%/year, at the same time lower key rates by additional 1%/year. On May 31, SBV worked with 14 leading commercial JS banks and reported negative credit growth of 0.2% of the entire banking system in May. To speed up the handling of bad debts, SBV plans to establish debt trading company in the banking system with debt purchase value of about 100 trillion VND. On June 8, SBV cut down deposit rate cap from 11% to 9%, removed deposit rate cap for above 12- month terms and lowered other key rates by 1%. Page 2

3 INFRASTRUCTURE NEWS Hanoi Building Hanoi-Ba Vi railway: Vietnam Railway Administration is considering to choose speed of the trains by km/h and soon bring out detailed construction plan. Handing over space for Hanoi- Hai Phong motorway: till date, An Lao district has basically handed over clean space for investor of Hanoi-Hai Phong motorway project in phase 2 with total area of 276,043 m 2. Hanoi to open to traffic Linh Dam-Thanh Xuan overhead road: Overhead road from the north of Linh Dam lake to the intersection Thanh Xuan (Hanoi) has completed 90% and will be open to traffic in late June. HCMC HCMC will build additional 4 flyover bridges at the intersection of Thu Duc, Hang Xanh traffic-circle, Cay Go traffic-circle, district 11 and Lang Cha Ca traffic-circle. $9 billion to build HCMC-Can Tho high-speed railway: 160km route will pass through five provinces of Long An, Tien Giang, Vinh Long, Can Tho and HCMC. HCMC expects to complete metro 2 route in 2017: nearly 20 km metro 2 route has starting point at Thu Thiem new urban zone (district 2) and ending point at An Suong coach station (district 12). Page 3

4 Real Estate Market Report in May 2012 NEWS, HIGHLIGHTS Market News Office grade A in HCMC is scarce in short term: with increasing occupancy ratio and delayed supply in 2012, there will be only about 9,000m 2 being completed, or 11% of expectation (84,000m 2 ). Hanoi builds property price index: Department of Construction proposed to build property index in both price and volume in 4 districts (Dong Da, Cau Giay, Thanh Xuan, Ha Dong) and 2 districts (Hoai Duc, Tu Liem) from now till The index will be statistical tool to monitor the market, help state managers as well as realty investors give development policies and strategies in real estate sector. 120 trillion VND of public investments relieves real estate: deputy minster Nguyen Tran Nam said that, in remaining seven months of this year, 120 trillion VND will be injected in the market. Together with demand stimulus packages of banks, this is considered one of good signals for the economy in general and real estate market in particular. 2/3 property trading floors in Hanoi closed: according to statistics of Hanoi Department of Construction, with more than 500 property trading floors in Hanoi, from 2011 to date, as many as 122 floors have stopped operations and over 200 floors do not have successful transactions. There have been only several transactions. The addresses of these 122 floors are not found even though there are still business registration. Policy News Prime minister agreed for land use fee payment extension totaled 64 trillion VND to rescue real estate: PM has recently agreed to extend maximum 12 months for land use fee payment for capitalstrapped project investors. Reportedly, as MoF s estimate, total amount of land use fee payment extension would be about 64 trillion VND. Do not develop urban zones along main road in Ba Vi district: according to overall Hanoi development planning till 2030, Ba Vi district is located in the green corridor area and oriented to encourage development of tourism activities, farm model and scientific research for agriculture. Hanoi to open new road along West Lake to Thuy Khue: Hanoi Department of Planning and Architecture has recently reported Hanoi People s Committee a plan to open road along West Lake to some nearly roads to replace for a plan of opening road going through Chu Van An High School. Linking Thang Long Boulevard with National Highway (NH) 32: Hanoi People s Committee has approved ring road project 3,5, from Thang Long Boulevard to NH 32. Investor will deploy project from Q3/2012 and complete in Q3/2013. Expected highest rental charge of public houses would be 5,700 VND/m 2 /month: Condominium with elevator would be 5,700 VND/m 2 /month and condominium without elevator and other houses would be 3,400 VND/m 2 /month. Rental charges will be considered for adjusting every five years Business News TAKCO stopped raising capital for The Splendor project: According to management board of Tan Ky Real Estate Trading and Construction JSC (TAKCO), due to difficulties in business activities for real estate, condominium and high-rise buildings, company decided to convert investment capital in this project to support working capital for other business activities. Ha Do needs 300 billion VND for 3 projects: Ha Do Group JSC plans to issue 300 billion VND worth of convertible bonds at the face value of 1 million VND/bond to raise capital for 3 ongoing realty projects, including N10 Dich Vong urban zone project, Cau Giay district, Hanoi; Bao Dai villa project, Nha Trang, Khanh Hoa province and An Khanh urban zone project, An Thuong, Hanoi. Quoc Cuong Gia Lai will discount apartments: Many realty projects of Quoc Cuong Gia Lai JSC (QCGL) are scheduled for wholesale to investors and discount output price for resettlement to get money for debt repayment, reinvestment and lessening pressure of interest rate for company. Hoang Quan offloads capital in 6 subsidiaries, including Hoang Quan Appraisal Ltd Co, Vietnamese Architecture JSC, Nam Quan Investment JSC, Hoang Quan Can Tho Real Estate Services Trading and Consulting JSC, Hoang Quan Binh Thuan and Hoang Quan MeKong. So far, Hoang Quan realty firm no longer has subsidiary system. Page 4

5 MARKET OVERVIEW Market is targeting only cheap price segment and projects that can be completed soon in 2012 and 2013, following government s solution. Bailout packages worth 64 trillion VND and 25 trillion VND have still certain lateness for the absorption of businesses. Regarding apartment: apartment market still maintained selling price after falling 25-30% during the fever time. Transaction rate is increasing thanks to promotion and demand stimulus policies, but it only focuses in popular and medium segments. Regarding ground land: ground land in Hanoi is being improved gradually when seeing successful transactions in cheap price lots in the west, after remaining gloomy for a long time. Prices have still leveled off and there is not clear upward trend. In the south area, some low price projects in Binh Duong and Dong Nai are attracting customers. On resort real estate: recently, market saw positive evolutions in low price segment in some projects such as Venesia Nha Trang, Dien Vien Thon in Ba Vi, Flamingo Dai Lai, For office for lease: rental charges of office for lease are still declining in HCMC. Central areas in Hanoi are seeing scarcity of office Grade A. Occupancy ratio is being improved. Market trend has more positive changes in May thanks to government s loosening credit policy. Viewpoints from state management agencies buy house. Mr Vu Xuan Thien - deputy director of Housing and Real Estate Market Management Department Realty prices in HCMC and Hanoi suit those who have real needs and this is an appropriate time for transactions. If I have money, I will Mr Trinh Dinh Dung - Minister of Construction If buying house for living purpose, buyers should look for appropriate ability to buy while for investment purpose, buyers should study carefully. Currently, bottom of real estate market still persists. Viewpoints from project developers Mr Nguyen Van Duc, Director of Dat Lanh Real Estate Co Appropriate demand stimulus way for realry market is now to split large apartments of build small apartments ranging around 30m 2, suitable the affordability of many people to stimulate consumption. Mr Vu Cuong Quyet, general director of Northern Dat Xanh JSC Many realty firms have worked hard to overcome difficulties and even accept losses when launching shock discounts. More discounts businesses launch, more apathetic buyers are. Page 5

6 Viewpoints from international and local real estate investment funds and consulting companies Mr Arsh Chaudhry, Executive Managing Director of Cushman&Wakefield Real Estate Group in Southeast Asia Investors should invest in ground land in the west of Hanoi in medium and long terms instead of short term investments as this will be potential area. Mrs Nguyen Anh Thu, Housing Sales Director of Savills Vietnam Ltd Co Interest rate reduction has positive impact on psychology of house buyers. With lower interest rate, savings are no longer effective and therefore many investors will switch to buy house. MARKET SEGMENT Condominium market Hanoi condominium market in last month saw the excitement in offering projects. Perhaps this is because investors have caught up the interest rate reduction as well as support message from government. However, these offering projects are aimed at popular segment with prices of around 20 million VND/ m 2, only three high-class apartment projects were offered. Hanoi s Ha Dong district is seeing deepest fall, even to 14 million VND/m 2, common prices are ranging around million VND/m 2. Peri-inner urban areas such as districts of Cau Giay, Dong Da, Tay Ho, Hai Ba Trung are hovering around million VND/m 2 depending each project. In HCMC, districts 2 and 7 saw prices at million VND/m 2, districts 8 and 9 at about million VND/m 2, districts of Binh Tan, Nha Be, Binh Chanh at around million VND/m 2. 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Căn Nguồn: Nghiên cứu & Tư vấn Savills Apartment for sale market Nguồn cung sơ cấp Giá chào cao nhất Project ground land market A number of cheap ground land projects in Binh Duong and Dong Nai are attracting the attention of investors. This is a pretty light point in the market for this segment. Of which, Gold Hills (Dong Nai) has successfully sold more than 100 land lots, Green River (Binh Duong) has also reached transactions for about 100 land lots in May. Hanoi s environs are seeing strongest fall in new projects such as western area with Tan (New) Tay Do, Kim Chung Di Trach, An Khanh, Van Canh and Geleximco, at offering price of million VND/ m 2. Districts of Dong Anh and Me Linh are offering prices of million VND/m 2, except some typical projects like Vincom Village, Hanoi Garden City, Gamuda Yen So that are high-class segment at prices of 60 million VND/m 2. Source: CBRE Số căn bán Giá chào thấp nhất Hạng A Hạng B Hạng C Triệu VNĐ/ m Page 6

7 Office for lease market Office rental prices in Hanoi and HCMC still tend to fall slightly, however, the vacancy ratio is declining. Rental charges are more and more attractive thanks to the incentives to keep and attract tenants. Usually with the incentives, tenants will enjoy about $6 /m2/ month for office Grade A in HCMC. Average office rental charges for Grade A is now about $33-40 /m 2. Rental charges in the central area and environs are about $20-25 /m 2, Grade B ranging around $25 /m 2 in the central area, and about $15 /m 2. With this rental charges, although falling significantly from previous years, rental charges in Hanoi and HCMC are still ranked at the second and third highest levels in Southeast Asia after Singapore. Retail space market Total retail space area in two major cities of Hanoi and HCMC increased sharply over last year. In Hanoi, the area surged by 15% and that of HCMC rose by 7%. In Hanoi, Long Bien district saw the highest rise in retail spare area recently of about 20% with the introduction of Savico Mall and Vincom Centre. Rental charge of retail space in HCMC is falling strongly, about 10%-30% from early this year. According to Colliers International, average rental charge reached about $70 /m 2. In HCMC, an estimated huge supply of about over 1 million m 2 of floor space when large projects like Saigon One, Eden A, Pico Saigon Plaza, Kenton, Saigon M&C, Riveria Point start operations will put heavy pressure on rental charges. In Hanoi, by 2014, total retail space area is expected to be up to 1 million m 2 of floor area, Thanh Xuan district in recent years has offered the biggest area with about over 50% of the market share. Difficulties for retail space market when supply is increasing strongly (Source: CBRE) Generally, retail space market tends to fall in prices and is forecast to suffer pressure in capacity and rental charges when many projects are being invested and put into operation in the future. Page 7

8 Vincom Village Eco-urban Zone Vincom Village ecology urban zone covering a total area of more than 183ha is the most modern, luxurious and high-end urban zone in Vietnam. With the idea of an urban zone development of not only beauty, modern and high-class special standards in facilities but also a perfect habitat, Vincom Village is organized and planned on inward basis, focusing on green walking garden, curving lake with large area. Overall perspective of project Designed in the neoclassical style by a team of talented architects, each villa at Vincom Village is a work of architecture that is the luxury, elegance, sophistication and class claims of the employer. Villas at Vincom Village are the convergence of quintessence with French architectural style as we see in tourism areas such as Da Lat, Tam Dao, Sapa or centre of Hanoi streets Project: Investor: and Investment JSC Location: Area: Vincom Village Sai Dong Urban Development Long Bien, Hanoi 183,6 ha Vincom Village project, despite being commenced in the middle of May 2011 on a huge area, the whole items of project in phase 1 would be completed by the end of 2011, including trade centre, schools, villas, infrastrutures and landscapes. The investor said: Currently, all items of project are being deployed by over 20,000 workers of contractors. In addition, hundreds of officials and technical experts are also regularly examining and available for inspection to monitor the progress and quality of construction. All are for ensuring for the operation with the best quality. Volume: More than 1,000 villas On sale: May 28, 2011 Selling price: million VND/m 2 Kick-off construction: May 12, 2011 Hand-over: December 2011 Page 8

9 Project ground land price table in Hanoi in May 2012 Project Road > 10m Road > 17m Road>30m Adjacent Villa Adjacent Villa Adjacent Villa Ha Dong Thanh Ha (A, B) Duong Noi Tay Do Villas Van Phu Van Khe An Hung Park City Le Trong Tan Geleximco (A, B, C, D) A:37-44 B:28-40 C: D:39-43 Thang Long Boulevard A:52-56 C: Splendora phase Nam An Khanh National Highway 32 North National Highway New Tay Do Phoenix Garden Kim Chung Di Trach Van Canh HUD Hanoi Garden City 65 Northeast Area Minh Giang Dam Va Vincom Village AIC Me Linh Tung Phuong Cienco5 Me Linh (new) Note: Prices for reference only. (Unit: Million VND/m 2 ) Page 9

10 Condominium price table in Hanoi in May 2012 Location Project/Zone Area (m 2 ) Reference price No7 Dich Vong Sky View Phuong Thanh (new) Cau Giay Yen Hoa Building No4 Hoang Daoo Thuy No5 - Vinaconex Dong Da 170 De La Thanh Tiwn Tower (new) U-Silk City Van Phu Victoria Xala Ha Dong Dai Thanh (New) Van Khe The Sun Garden (New) Duong Noi Minh Khai Hai Ba Trung Times City Hoa Binh Green City Sky Garden Dinh Cong (new) Hoang Mai Megastar 409 Linh Nam Linh Nam Long Bien CT10 Viet Hung Tay Ho Ngoai Giao Doan N Thuong Dinh Plaza (new) Royal City Thanh Xuan SaKuRa Golden Land ,5-27 Hapulico C14 Ministry of Police C Tu Liem An Bình Tower Trung Van Dream Tower ,8-18 Viglacera Tower Note: Price table for reference only (Million VND/m 2 ) Page 10

11 Reference ground land price table in HCMC in May Project/Zone Internal Road> 10,5m Internal Road >17,5m Main Road >30m S<120 m 2 120<S<240 S>240 S<120 m 2 m 2 m 2 District 2 120<S<240 S>240 S<120 m 2 m 2 m 2 120<S<240 S>240 m 2 m 2 Van Minh Villa Thu Thiem st Century Him Lam-Luong Dinh Cua Thanh My Loi-Phu Nhuan Thu Duc House East Thu Thiem Binh Trung Dong Cat Lai District 7 Phu My- Van Phat Hung Sadeco Riverside Him Lam - Kenh Te Hung Gia- Hung Phuoc A 13 0 District 8 Phu Loi- Hai Thanh District 9 North Rach Chiec Gia Hoa Hung Phu Nam Long Binh Chanh District Trung Sơn Dai Phuc Intresco 6B Cienco A B C Binh Tan District Hoc Lam Lake Ao Sen- Ten Lua Nha Be District Phu Xuan- Van Phat Hung Cotec Phu Xuan Thai Son Note: Price table for reference only Unit: Million VND/m2 +/- (%)

12 Reference condominium price table in May in HCMC Location Project/Zone Area (m 2 Reference ) +/- (%) price Thinh Vuong An Phu An Khanh An Hoa An Cu District 2 Binh Minh Cantavil Thu Thiem Xanh Thao Dien River View Xi RiverView Palace Belleza Phu My District 7 Hoang Anh Gia Lai Hoang Anh Gia Lai Nam Khang An Vien Phu Loi District 8 CityGate Ngoc Nam Phuong District 9 Richland Hill Pho Dong Hoa Sen Hong Linh Plaza Binh Chanh District A View Conic Dinh Khiem (Block A, B) The Mansion An Lac Binh Tan District Le Thanh Vinh Tuong Tay SG Nha Be District Phu Hoang Anh Hoang Anh Gia Lai Note:Price table for reference only Unit: Million VND/m 2

13 UPDATED PHOTOS ON PACE OF SOME PROJECTS IN HANOI D.Palais de Louis project is building 8th floor The Lancaster Hanoi is building 26th floor PISD Tower under construction for foundation Habico Tower is building 9th floor Green Stars remains an empty land area Thang Long Mansion is building 8th floor Page 11

14 Appendix 2: Typical real estate projects No 1 Project name Investor Total investment Area Location Progress Description Splendora Phase 2 An Khanh JVC N/A 75,8 ha An Khanh, Hoai Duc, Hanoi Kick-off construction Total high-rise apartment area is about 15.3 ha. Total villa land area is about 30.9 ha, including 08 samples with 412 three-storey apartments. Adjacent house buildings are built on an area of about 139,308 m 2 with 10 samples and 446 four-storey apartments. Construction density is 59.7%, and green area is 3.4 ha, 2 Residence for Diplomatic officials Tasco JSC (stock coded: HUT) 2 trillion VND 22,700 m Tran Quoc Hoan, Cau Giay, Hanoi Under preparation Including 5 high-rise buildings, providing more than 1,000 apartments with synchronized social and technical infrastructure system, meeting the maximum demand for housing of staff of Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Project is expected for completion after 48 months of construction. 3 Spring Beach River Hong Lam Xuan Thanh JSC N/A 107 ha Xuan Thanh Beach, Nghi Xuan, Ha Tinh Province Kick-off construction 107 ha tourism area includes one 18-hole golf course, one 5-star sea resort area, dog racecourse, 660 villas together with other services such as school, shopping centre, clinic and entertainment area. Project is expected to complete in Q2/ Dao Viet (Viet Island) Ecourban zone Vietnam Petroleum High-class Service Trading JSC (share coded: PVR) trillion VND 788 ha Hạ Long Under preparation New urban zone will spread over an area of up to 788 ha in Ha Long special cultural-ecological area, a part of Ha Long Bay ha of land is for building villas, tourism hotels; 27.8 ha of land for public services; 199 ha for eco-tourism, high-grade entertainment services and high-level villas..

15 5 Dan - Nui Coc Lake Urban Zone Viet Bac SVA Real Estate JSC 97 trillion VND 804 ha Thai Nguyen province Ground breaking Dan-Nui Coc Lake urban road project has total length of 13km. 2 sides of road will have real estate complex, spiritual system, especially Nui Coc Lake. Surrounding lake will be entertainment area, resort and golf course 6 FPT City Da Nang FPT Da Nang Urban JSC N/A 181 ha Da Nang Under construction Project is a modern urban zone with completed social infrastructure including trade centre, finance centre, office, hotel, shopping centre, entertainment areas, school, hospital under international standards...products include townhouses with area ranging around 108m 2 and 144m 2, single villas 288m 2, doublet villas 188m 2, adjacent villas 188m 2 and apartments 25m 2, 50m 2 and 75m 2, 7 An Phu Complex Saigon Co.op N/A 6,9 ha An Phu, An Khanh, HCMC Under preparation With floor area of 350,000m 2 project consists of functional areas such as: trade centre, services, entertainment, high-ranking apartments, office building and hotel. As planned, project will start work in Q4/2012 and complete in 2015.