urrent difficult economic condition and the sustainable development remain key economic tasks in Export turnover reached US$96.

Transcription

1 CB RICHARD ELLIS VIETNAM DA January 212 Economics Quick Stats Change from last VIETNAM Current Yr. Qtr. Real GDP Growth 5.89% Implemented FDI Exports Imports $2.8 bil $26.2 bil $28.9 bil CPI (average) 18.58% Tourism (arrivals) 1.7mil Base Rate 9% Exchange Rate (e-o-p) 2,828 *The arrows are trend indicators over the specified time period and do not represent a positive or negative value. Hot Topics ECONOMY: Da Nang s GDP in 211 was still in growth with 13. % y-o-y increase. OFFICE: Vacancy up 3.3% q-o-q. Average asking rents of Grade B & C decreased. RESIDENTIAL: Success of Ocean View - The first condotel in Da Nang market RETAIL: Dragon Vinh Trung new shopping center comes online. Lotte stepped in Da Nang retail market. HOTEL & RESORTS: Opening of Da Nang International Airport Terminal and international ti visitors it increased 44% y-o-y. SERVICED APARTMENTS: Vacancy down 1.3 q-o-q LAND PLOTS: Witnessed modest new launches and average price reduced across all areas. VIETNAM GDP growth rate of 211 was 5.89% y- o-y, a reasonable growth rate considering the world s cu urrent difficult economic condition and the government s focus on curbing inflation and stabilizing the economy. CPI of the whole year reached 18.58%. Curbing inflation and stabilizing macro- economy toward sustainable development remain key economic tasks in 212. Export turnover reached US$96.3 billion, increasing 33.3% y-o-y, while import turnover was US$ 15.8 billion. Trade deficit was at US$9.5 billion, equal to 9.9% of export turnover. FDI (including new registered capital and increased capital from existing projects) reached US$14.7 billion, equal to 74% of FDI in 21. However, implemented FDI was at US$11 billion, the same levell in 21. The highlighthli h of FDI in 211 was the manufacturingaccounted for construction sector which 76.4% (compared to 54. 1% in 21). Percentage of FDI in the real estate sector declined drastically, from 34.3% last year to 5.8% this year. Total number of international arrivals to Vietnam reached 6 million, increasing 19.1% compared to 21. Trade Balance of Da Nang City t - export turnover (USD) Import 95, 85, 75, 65, 55, 45, 35, 25, 15, 5, (5,) (15,) DA CITY Da Nang s GDP increased 13% y-o-y, which is 2.7 percentage points higher than HCMC and 2.9 percentage points higher than Hanoi. Exports also increased a strong 22.3% y-o-y, which is equivalent to US$1.4 billion. This export growth was 1.2% over the target for 211. Imports also increased a strong 14.5% y-o-y, y, the equivilant of US$86 million. Export growth met the target for 211. Tokai Kogyo Corp, a Japanese auto parts manufacturer, officially announced a US$1 million invesetment to build a manufacturing plant in Da Nang. The city of Da Nang also signed a memorandum of cooperation with the city of Salo, in Finland. The vision is to increase cooperation in the areas of high technology, trade, social welfare and education sectors. The mayor of Salo indicated that some of Finland 's electronic production companies and universities are ready to sign cooperation agreements in these areas. Finland 's Salo Educational Association and Turku University of Applied Si Sciences also signed memoranda with local Dong A and Da Nang universities to exchange professors and students. Import Turnover (US$ millions) Exports Turnover (US$ millions) Trade Balance(US$ millions) Export Turnover Import Turnover Trade Balance 212, CB Richard Ellis, (Vietnam) Co., Ltd.

2 OFFICE MARKET GRADE A Number of buildings 1 NLA (sm) 6,314 Vacancy rate (%) 13.5% Q-o-q change (pts) -1.5 pp Y-o-y change (pts) -25.5pp 5 Average asking rent (US$ psm per month) $19. Q-o-q change (%).% Y-o-y change (%). % GRADE B GRADE C TOTAL ,823 41,756 83, % 35.% 29.1% 2.5 pp 3.4 pp 3.3 pp -29.9pp pp pp $13.57 $1.97 $ % -7.4 % -3.21%.99 % 8.51 % % Vacan ncy (%) ge Asking Rent (USD/ sm) Avera Vacancy Rate (%) Grade A Grade B Grade C Q2/9 Q4/9 Q2/1 Q4/1 Q2/11 Q4/11 Asking Rents (US$ psm per month) Grade A Grade B Grade C Q2/9 Q4/9 Q2/1 Q4/1 Q2/11 Q4/11 There were no new office buildings in the fourth quarter of 211, but one building increased it available space by 1,5 sm NLA. Vacancy in the Grade A sector decreased by a strong 1.5 percentage points q-o-q with asking rents unchanged at US$19. psm. As Da Nang only has one Grade A building, small changes in occupancy can affect the Grade A numbers. One Grade A occupier is expanding, which accounts for the majority of the decrease in Grade A vacancy. In the review quarter, most of the inquiries came from companies in the banking, real estate, FMCG, and vacation property sectors. The Grade B and C sectors saw increases in vacancy due mainly to tenants leaving office buildings for shophouses. Shophouses can be cheaper to lease, but also offer improved accessibility. There is tension between the Grade B and C office sectors as rents compress, the difference between Grade B and C rents is narrowing, with both sectors showing slight decreases in the fourth quarter. Grade B rents decreased.4% q-o-q, but were up 1% y-o-y. Grade C rents on the other hand were down a significant 6.4% q-o-q, with most landlords reducing their asking rents by US$1 - $1.5. This is still a significant y-o-y increase of 9.2%. In 212 two new Grade B office buildings are expected, with a total of 19,2 sm, and one Grade C building will provide 64 sm to the market. Rents in the first quarter of 212 are expected to be flat as landlords try to capitalise on the declining vacancy rates to continue to fill their buildings. During the review quarter, tenants still preferred shophouses for their offices due to the higher rents in proper office buildings. This is despite a limited amount of shophouse space available in the CBD. 212, CB Richard Ellis, (Vietnam) Co., Ltd. January 212

3 RESIDENTIAL FOR SALE MARKET LUXURY Total supply (projects) 3 Total supply (units) 35 New launch (units) Average asking price (US$ psm) 3,7 Q-o-q change (%) 1.1% Y-o-y change (%) 4.5% Average sold rate (%) 79.7% Q-o-q change (pp) Y-o-y change (pp) 6.7pp -1.6pp HIGH-END MID-END TOTAL ,46 1,14 2, , %.% -3% 14.3% 38.% 41.2% 2.5pp 7.4pp.3pp 12.5pp Units sales rate (%) 3, 2,5 2, 15 1,5 1, Condominium Supply (units) Opening supply Change in quarter 5 Q2/9 Q4/9 Q2/1 Q4/1 Q2/11 Q4/11 Second Home Villas Sold Rate (%) Q2/9 Q4/9 Q2/1 Q4/1 Q2/11 Q4/11 CONDOMINIUMS In the fourth quarter of 211, the first condotel project in Da Nang launched. The OceanViews project will add 1 units of supply to the condominium segment. The OceanViews project is developed by Taseco and located in Phuoc My Ward in Son Tra District. It is a 21 storey buildin ng which includes 38 hotel rooms and 17 condominium units. The remaining 4 units in the development are expected to be launched in 212. The OceanViews project had a successful launch, with a number of units sold. This is due to the prime beachside location, the unique condotel structure, and the affordable asking price at launch. As most buyers come from Hanoi and HCMC, owning a holiday condo in Da Nang which can also be included in the hotel s rental pool is an attractive option. Fusion Suites is expected to capitalise on the success of the OceanViews when it launches in the second quarter of 212. Fusion Suites will offer 34 apartment - office units and 8 6 apartment - hotel units in a 17-storey building. SECOND HOME VILLAS Asking prices of second home projects have generally remained flat as developers are not confident to push up their prices in the uncertain market. Asking prices at The Point project did increase slightly, as this project has a reputa able brand name, prime location and reasonably priced units. Although launches are expected to be subdued in 212, a limited number of units are expected to launch in the Vinpearl Villas Ngu Hanh Son and VietStar projects. In the fourth quarter of 211, the Da Nang second home villa market saw the launch of an addition of 4 units from the Point project, developed and launched by VinaCapital. This project also brought a new range of prices to the sector, with villa prices ranging from US$2, - $4, per unit. 212, CB Richard Ellis, (Vietnam) Co., Ltd. January 212

4 RETAIL RETAIL & SERVICED APARTMENT MARKETS SHOPPING CENTRES SUPERMARKET TOTAL Total supply (GFA, sm) 49,839 53,7 81,539 New supply (GFA, sm) 5,5 5,5 Average asking rents (US$ psm per month) $26.27 Q-o-q change (%) -3.5% Y-o-y change (%) -6.9% Vacancy rate (%) 8.8% Q-o-q change (pp) -2 pp Y-o-y change (pp) 5 pp SERVICED APA ARTMENT Total projects Current supply (units) Vacancy rate (%) 27.7% 6.3% 25.3% Q-o-q ch ange (pp) -11.5pp pp.pp -1.3 pp Average asking rents (US$ psm per month) GRADE A GRADE B GRADE C TOTAL $ $8.61 $14.18 Q-o-q change (%) -.3%. % -.3% ncy Rate (%) Average Vacan sking Rent ($US /sm) Average As Retail Vacancy Rate (%) Q2/9 Q4/9 Q2/1 Q4/1 Q2/11 Q4/11 Serviced Apartment Average Asking Rent (US$ psm per month) Grade B Grade C Q1/11 Q2/11 Q3/11 Q4/11 RETAIL Dragon Vinh Trung launched in the fourth quarter, in a prime location with 5,5 sm of retail space. Average rents dropped 3.5 percentage points q-o-q and 6.9 percentage points y-o-y, supporting the accompanyingdropinvacancy.dragonvinhtrung opened with vacancy at only 1%, and market-wide vacancy fell almost 5% in the last year. Da Nang Square and IRT also saw an increase in tenants taking space. New tenants came from the F&B, entertainment, cosmetic and electronics sectors. There is a wide disparity in rents within the same development, with ground floor rents approaching three times the rent for space on the third floor. The upcoming World Trade Center project is 75% preleased in the fourth quarter. This includes an eight screen cinema and two anchor tenants who are committed to 25, sm GFA. One anchor, Parkson, is taking 2, sm GFA of space, and construction is due to start in the second quarter of 212. SERVICED APARTMENTS Vacancy in the Grade B sector declined a strong 11.5 percentage points q-o-q with only a slight declinee in rental rates. This decline in vacancy is partly due to an increase in Japanese ODA projects which bring more Japanese professionals to work in Da Nang. Competition continues from buy-to-let apartments that have a greater flexibility to lower their rents to attractt tenants. The decline in Grade B vacancy indicates that tenants still prefer serviced apartm ments to buy-to-let apartments. Serviced apartment operators are offering short term leases as well as daily rates to increase their target market. 212, CB Richard Ellis, (Vietnam) Co., Ltd. January 212

5 LAND PLOT MARKET NORTHWEST Number of projects 14 Total supply (plots) 6,98 New supply (plot) 145 Average price (VND per sm) VND mil Change (%) -7% to -4% EAST SOUTH TOTAL ,413 3,813 12, VND8.5 43mil VND5. -35mil -7% to -2% -1% to -2% VND ts Plot Total Supply (Plot) 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Opening supply Change in supply 27 Q2/9 Q4/9 Q2/1 Q4/1 Q2/11 Q4/11 Price Range By Submarkets (VND psm) 48,, 42,, 36,, 3,, 24,, 18,, 12,, 6,, Thuy Tu Lien Chieu Thanh Khe Man Son Tra My An Average price Ngu Price (min) Price ( Max) Average Cam Le Developers were more careful about timing their launches in the fourth quarter due to the challenging market, with only 145 plots launched at two new projects. Average prices were flat or declined throughout the city, and the secondary market saw few transactions. Developers are trying to stoke sales by emphasising their promotions towards the end of the year. There are approximately 4,129 plots waiting to be launched in subsequent phases of existing projects. There arealsoahugenumberofplotsfromsome projects which have not been officially announced to the market. As the result, it is expected that future land plot supply could account for over 4, plots. Almost half of land plot demand comes from Hanoi, while upwards of 4% of demand comes from residents of Da Nang. The balance of demand comes from throughout Vietnam. The proportion of buyers from Da Nang has increased throughout 211, andisupsixpercentagepointssincethefirst quarte er of 211. Buyers from Hanoi and other cities in Vietnam tend to be more speculative compared to land plot buyers from Da Nang. The shift in buyers to Da Nang is a healthy sign for the land plot market and demonstrates land plots are beginning to meet some demand for residential housing in the city. 212, CB Richard Ellis, (Vietnam) Co., Ltd. January 212

6 CITY For more information regarding this MarketView or to find out more about any aspect of our services, please contact: CB Richard Ellis (Vietnam) Co., Ltd. RESEARCH & CONSULTING Marc Townsend, Managing Director t e. marc.townsend@cbre.com Thao Le, Research Executive m e. thao.p.le@cbrevietnam.com Adam Bury, Senior Manager m e. adam.bury@cbre.com Ngoc Le, Publications Manager m e. ngoc.le@cbrevietnam.com Central Business District (CBD) The Central Business District in Da Nang is Hai Chau District, the commercial, administrative and tourism centre. Interest Rate The base rate set by the SBV is used as a reference by other banks and financial institutions. The discount rate is the interest rate that the SBV charges member banks for short-term loans via discounting commercial paper or other debt instruments. The refinancing rate is the interest rate that the SBV charges on loans to member banks. Gross Floor Area (GFA) Gross Floor Area includes all areas contained within the external walls at each floor level and the whole thickness of the external walls. In general, mechanical and electrical services rooms, refuse chambers and rooms, water tanks, car parking floors and all lifts and staircases passing through these floors are excluded from the Gross Floor Area calculation. Net Leasable Area (NLA) In a building or project, floor space that may be rented to tenants; area upon which rental payments are based. It generally excludes common areas and space devoted to the heating, cooling, and other equipment of a building Da Nang City Map Rent Rent is quoted as the average asking rent, without accounting for any incentives. Rents are stated in US$ per square metre (psm) as well as in those terms gross or net, inclusive (including management fees and/or property taxes) or exclusive (excluding management fees and property taxes) that are customarily employed in the respective sector. Rents are quoted on the following basis: Office: Asking rents, NLA, exclusive of VAT and service charges Retail: Asking rents, NLA, exclusive of VAT and service charges Serviced Apartments: Asking rents, NLA, inclusive of VAT and service charges Residential Supply Existing supply : is the total number of units that have been handed over for occupation. New launch : the number of units that were released to the market by developers (official start of sales for a project) in the review quarter. All units in each development are included in the calculations, however, the developer may divide sales into numerous phases and thus not all units may come online at launch date. 212 CB Richard Ellis (Vietnam) Co., Ltd. This report has been prepared in good faith and with due care by CB Richard Ellis (Vietnam) Co., Ltd. We obtained some of the information above from sources we believe to be reliable. However, we have not verified the accuracy of the information which we obtained from other sources and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. We include projections, opinions, assumptions or estimates which are made with careful consideration of factors known to us for example only, and they may not represent current or future performance of the market. This information is designed exclusively for use by CBRE clients, and cannot be reproduced without prior written permission of CBRE.